Brexit & British Politics

[BandAlum83]

And, IMO, not the way someone speaks when they truly want to be the next POTUS.

I still believe Trump never expected to get this far, is in over his head and doesn't know how to extract himself.

[duke74]

I still believe Trump never expected to get this far, is in over his head and doesn't know how to extract himself.

Agree - and have thought that for a few months. Looked in the mirror and said "Holy sh-t, am I really the nominee?" What a shock on the Wed morning if he wins. To rephrase the quote from above, the dog will have really caught the car.

[BigWayne]

Interesting, the nuances.

Not surprising at all. The people answering British to these questions, as well as the people from the minority countries within the UK, are used to and/or satisfied with being subjugated to the larger political entity of the UK. It follows that they would be more likely to be comfortable being politically subjugated to the EU as well. The Scots are not generally happy with being outvoted by the English, so they either don't mind being outvoted by the EU and/or they want to stick it to the English so they can share the pain.

[Troublemaker]

Not surprising at all. The people answering British to these questions, as well as the people from the minority countries within the UK, are used to and/or satisfied with being subjugated to the larger political entity of the UK. It follows that they would be more likely to be comfortable being politically subjugated to the EU as well. The Scots are not generally happy with being outvoted by the English, so they either don't mind being outvoted by the EU and/or they want to stick it to the English so they can share the pain.

Oh, no doubt. Very nice explanation, and I agree. Didn't mean to suggest it was surprising. Just that it was interesting to go through the demographic slices (age, geography, degree of "British" identity, etc) and see the differences. I love looking at this stuff.

[OldPhiKap]

My mother was half English and I'm half English too
I'm a great big bundle of culture, tied up in the red white and blue
I'm a fine example of your Essex man
And I'm well familiar with the Hindustan
'Cause my neighbors are half English and I'm half English too

My breakfast was half English and so am I, you know
I had a plate of Marmite soldiers, washed down with a cappuccino
And I have a veggie curry about once a week
The next day I fry it up as bubble and squeak
'Cause my appetites, half English and I'm half English too

Dance with me to this very English melody
From morris dancing to Morrissey
All that stuff came from across the sea

Britannia, she's half English, she speaks Latin at home
St. George was born in the Lebanon, how he got here I don't know
And those three lions on your shirt
They never sprang from England's dirt
Them lions are half English and I'm half English too

Le-li, umma le-li-ya, le-li Umma le-li-ya
Le-li, umma le-li-ya, bledi g'desh akh! Le-li-ya

Oh, my country, what a beautiful country you are

-- Billy Bragg

[Furniture]

Maybe so. Or maybe it's the Poles.

Attachment 6475 Attachment 6476

I was in the uk a couple of weeks ago visiting my family and actually the biggest concern was the possibility of Turkey joining. David Cameron had publicly said that he wouldn't support them joining but it had been leaked that privately he was supporting. It has been estimated that if Turkey joined thousands of immigrants would flood into the Uk. As my sister put it there is just no room. Schools, roads, housing, you name it.

[BandAlum83]

I was in the uk a couple of weeks ago visiting my family and actually the biggest concern was the possibility of Turkey joining. David Cameron had publicly said that he wouldn't support them joining but it had been leaked that privately he was supporting. It has been estimated that if Turkey joined thousands of immigrants would flood into the Uk. As my sister put it there is just no room. Schools, roads, housing, you name it.

A leaked lie, or truth?

Everything I'd read indicated there was little to no possibility of a Turkish entry into the EU.

[SoCalDukeFan]

Evidently the younger more educated voted to remain, older less educated to stay. Long term effect on GB economy may be pretty large. The terms of withdrawal are not even known, must be negotiated. I am not sure that those voted to leave understand the consequences.

My fear is that we will see that pattern prevail in other elections throughout the globe.

SoCal

[YmoBeThere]

Evidently the younger more educated voted to remain, older less educated to stay.

Hmmm, I thought we were staying away from PPB territory.

[BandAlum83]

Hmmm, I thought we were staying away from PPB territory.

I wouldn't call that PPB territory. It was the actual demographics of the vote, wasn't it?

[Furniture]

A leaked lie, or truth?

Everything I'd read indicated there was little to no possibility of a Turkish entry into the EU.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/132421...er-referendum/

The tabloids are a major factor for the news in the UK. Who knows what is the truth? The important thing here is what the voters believed.

[YmoBeThere]

I wouldn't call that PPB territory. It was the actual demographics of the vote, wasn't it?

Yes and no. Besides being a bit of it generaliaztion, the implication of the statement being that the valued measure of education is formal classroom time. Some might consider this a debatable point. The statement could also be made that the young and asset light vote to stay while the experienced with something to lose vote to leave.

[JNort]

Evidently the younger less educated voted to remain, older more educated to stay. Long term effect on GB economy may be pretty large. The terms of withdrawal are not even known, must be negotiated. I am not sure that those voted to leave understand the consequences.

My fear is that we will see that pattern prevail in other elections throughout the globe.

SoCal

Corrected it

[ncexnyc]

The Sun rose in the U.K. last week. it rose again this morning, and I promise each and everyone of you that it will rise 6 months from now.

The E.U. has faced several major economic problems in the past and it has survived, it won't be any different this time around

[Reilly]

... Referenda tend to create the opportunity for chaos. ...

It's one of the reasons our founding fathers created a republic, not a democracy.

It's an interesting dynamic, deciding which questions should be removed from consideration by the voters for their own good. ...

Just read a somewhat-related article in National Affairs about whether certain questions should not be subject to popular or even representative vote: http://www.nationalaffairs.com/publi...-majority-rule

Though this article was written by the conservative George Will, the idea of making certain questions off-limits to the people or their representatives is one that may appeal to either the current American left or right, depending on the issue.

[77devil]

It's often true that the party (not political party) that chooses to leave tends to be highly (and overly) optimistic about
the next deal it can cut.

For forty plus years I've watched the ongoing attempts of many in Quebec to leave Canada. The Quebecois like to
paint a scenario called Sovereignty Association, in which Quebec runs itself (sovereignty) but gets to retain a lot
of important stuff like military protection and the Canadian dollar (association).

However, the rest of Canada isn't too impressed by this argument...either you're in or you're out they say, and if you're out you
can have your own military and currency. And some of the more conservative provinces (e.g. Alberta) would just as soon
help them pack.

(I'm not saying this to pick on the Quebecois, they have some genuine grievances...only to point out that exiting entities can
be too optimistic about what comes next.)

What's interesting about what happened in the UK vs Quebec is that in the UK, older citizens voted to leave, whereas in Quebec, older
people (presumably with a lot of financial concerns) tended to want to stay in Canada.

Quebec receives substantially more social services and other economic support from the Ottawa than it contributes. Quebec's ability to stand alone is highly questionable. Not the case with the U.K., or the rest of Northern Europe, which are giant piggy banks for the south and parts of Eastern Europe.

[duke74]

Quebec receives substantially more social services and other economic support from the Ottawa than it contributes. Quebec's ability to stand alone is highly questionable. Not the case with the U.K., or the rest of Northern Europe, which are giant piggy banks for the south and parts of Eastern Europe.

Isn't this also a argument relating to the status within the UK or independence of Scotland - the relative funding and support received/provided?

An analogy for those in investment banking here - how would a division or subsidiary succeed outside its current ownership structure? What centralized support would have to be recreated when a stand-alone entity? The SEC focuses on that in the pro formas and disclosures when there is a spin-offs public offering (IPO). I think there is an analogy to be made.

[The Gordog]

Sorry, multi-tasking... IMO, the actual effects of the vote are being felt and have been all day. The market may be wrong, but it moves quickly. IMO, certain companies and industries are providing nice entry opportunities today.

This. I would predict Mon-Tues. will see a 1 to 2% gain in the indexes.

[77devil]

Nice analogy.

In retrospect, what the hell was Cameron thinking?

Right. Since when should democracy play a part in a thing like this?

Referenda tend to create the opportunity for chaos. I don't think that's a hard concept to grasp.

It's one of the reasons our founding fathers created a republic, not a democracy.

It's an interesting dynamic, deciding which questions should be removed from consideration by the voters for their own good.

Apparently, the referendum had no legal effect and could still be blocked by Parliament, most of the members of which wanted to stay. They'll have a hard time voting against it at this point, though.

Yeah, I'm wondering if the effects are so disastrous that Parliament may just override, or force a second referendum vote. The former would be political suicide, and I doubt seriously it will happen. (And despite my apparent totalitarian leanings , it's an outcome I would not support.)

The latter I see as a long shot, but possible, given the stakes. I believe it would still be a slap in the face of the voting public and cynical, but it wouldn't shock me if it came to pass.

That being said, Cameron is on the record as saying that the will of the people absolutely has to be followed, so the lift for either of these actions just got that much higher.

I've seen a number of "man on the street" interviews with people who voted LEAVE purely as a protest vote and never thought it would win. They didn't really want to win and are really concerned about the results.

"The best case against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter." - Sir WInston Churchill

[77devil]

Isn't this also a argument relating to the status within the UK or independence of Scotland - the relative funding and support received/provided?

An analogy for those in investment banking here - how would a division or subsidiary succeed outside its current ownership structure? What centralized support would have to be recreated when a stand-alone entity? The SEC focuses on that in the pro formas and disclosures when there is a spin-offs public offering (IPO). I think there is an analogy to be made.

Its only economically viable for Scotland to exit the U.K. by remaining in the EU and receiving EU subsidies like the many poorer countries currently do.