Brexit & British Politics

[swood1000]

Plus you have to have a high exit fee, or else others will follow. A lenient hand to the UK means a lenient hand to France and the Netherlands when they have their inevitable exit votes or pushes.

Effect on contributions required by the rest of the EU:

BrexitEffect.jpg

UK's position second on this list was likely another consideration for those voting to leave.

[OldPhiKap]

But is the issue immigration from Scotland or immigration from Syria?

I think the thinking is, Syrians get to the EU, and then can freely travel throughout the EU including England.

If there is no secure border between EU Ireland and UK Northern Ireland, that same person can get to England just as easily as it could pre-Brexit. Or at minimum get the Belfast, which is part of the UK.

[swood1000]

I think the thinking is, Syrians get to the EU, and then can freely travel throughout the EU including England.

If there is no secure border between EU Ireland and UK Northern Ireland, that same person can get to England just as easily as it could pre-Brexit. Or at minimum get the Belfast, which is part of the UK.

Maybe so. Or maybe it's the Poles.

UKForeignPop.jpg EUinUK.jpg

[swood1000]

It's interesting to think of this in the context of the secession of the South in 1860-1861. Prior to the Civil War secession threats were bandied about by northern and southern states alike, for a variety of grievances, but nobody has given it the slightest thought since (not realistically, at least). That war truly rendered this country indivisible.

[The Gordog]

To those of you that are economists or economic experts: What's the short-term and long-term prognosis?

I'm having a hard time finding any silver lining to this news.

Weaker euro and weaker pound = stronger dollar. The risk of the dollar ending its reign as the world fiat currency in my lifetime is now significantly closer to nill. Unless Trump becomes President. if that happens I guess I'll have to start buying Yen (or Yaun).

[left_hook_lacey]

Only on DBR, an otherwise place to discuss college basketball, could one find an amazing, well thought out conversation about the EU and the Brexit therein. DBR never ceases to amaze me. I was/am not a well-educated person, and while I sometimes feel really dumb when I read some of these threads, I always come away a little smarter and more informed than I was before. I've learned more about this development here than I have watching it on the news all morning.
BS in Political Science? Nah, I'll just read DBR off-topic.

[Olympic Fan]

One thing that makes this more predictable in the US is that in the presidential election, it's not about overall polling, it's about the electoral college. I think this gives Trump a much larger lift than most people do.

But I agree, Brexit probably indicates that the voting public will lean more (searching for non-PPB board term)... protection-y... than most think.

I think it goes the other way -- the Electoral Map is a huge hurdle for Trump ...

But somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but haven't there been a number of European races in the last 3-4 years where the polls were wildly wrong -- more so than the handful of races in the United States where the late polls missed?

[BandAlum83]

I think it goes the other way -- the Electoral Map is a huge hurdle for Trump ...

But somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but haven't there been a number of European races in the last 3-4 years where the polls were wildly wrong -- more so than the handful of races in the United States where the late polls missed?

FiveThirtyEight just did a podcast on how unreliable the polls are in the UK and for Brexit in particular. It was recorded on 6/20 and is titled Brexit Polls Are A Mess

[alteran]

I think it goes the other way -- the Electoral Map is a huge hurdle for Trump ...

But somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but haven't there been a number of European races in the last 3-4 years where the polls were wildly wrong -- more so than the handful of races in the United States where the late polls missed?

Agree that the EC map is a huge hurdle for Trump. My comment was poorly phrased.

[BandAlum83]

Donald Trump got plenty of free advertising this morning. At Turnberry, Scotland for a ribbon cutting ceremony (a seemingly odd one day detour from his campaign), all the cameras were on him awaiting comments about Brexit. He stepped to the podium and said one or two sentences about the "historic vote" and proceeded to talk for 20 minutes or so about his fantastice new golf course, beautiful world class hotel, the great suites in the lighthouse, etc.

Fox and friends stuck with it for over 15 minutes, Morning Joe cut away after about 5.

He did go to Q&A and did the Trump thing...attacked Hillary, took credit for knowing the vote would go this way. (As an aside, he was in Scotland which voted 62% to stay in.) But there was on question that he answered that stood out. Katy Tur of MSNBC asked if he had his foreign advisers with him on the flight knowing this vote was coming down. Asked if he had huddled with them to discuss to discuss the impact this could have on the US economy. His response: "Why? There's nothing to talk about". Interesting response. We've managed to fill a few pages talking about this. I would think a presidential candidate would want some discussion.

On Morning Joe, Nicole Wallace (former George W. Bush communications director), was "Gobsmacked" over the Trump appearance. Yes, she actually used "Gobsmacked" twice.

Meanwhile, Fox and friends proclaimed Trump a genius for being in Scotland at this moment and declared him the winner and Obama and Hillary the losers. Here I thought this was about the people of the UK.

This really is entertaining. Having a DVR that can record 4 different shows simultaneously certainly is both a blessing and a curse for newshound/policy wonks who doubled majored in political science and economics.

[Jeffrey]

FWIW, the US stock market had a rather strong opinion today.

It ain't often right,
but, it's never been wrong,
time to take your cash,
and just go long.

[BandAlum83]

Yeah, I'm wondering if the effects are so disastrous that Parliament may just override, or force a second referendum vote.

A second vote would be fascinating. I've seen a number of "man on the street" interviews with people who voted LEAVE purely as a protest vote and never thought it would win. They didn't really want to win and are really concerned about the results. Would the vote go a different way a second time?

How about a best of 3?

Knowing the stakes, would turnout go higher than yesterday's roughly 72%?

Fascinating, but I doubt we get to see it.

[Troublemaker]

Interesting, the nuances.

[Olympic Fan]

A second vote would be fascinating. I've seen a number of "man on the street" interviews with people who voted LEAVE purely as a protest vote and never thought it would win. They didn't really want to win and are really concerned about the results. Would the vote go a different way a second time?

How about a best of 3?

Knowing the stakes, would turnout go higher than yesterday's roughly 72%?

Fascinating, but I doubt we get to see it.

I would think that under the British system, the possible answer would be for the government to resign and force a general election -- then for the party to run under the promise to force a second referendum.

The general election is likely anyway ... what happens if Cameron and company are returned to power?

[alteran]

A second vote would be fascinating. I've seen a number of "man on the street" interviews with people who voted LEAVE purely as a protest vote and never thought it would win. They didn't really want to win and are really concerned about the results. Would the vote go a different way a second time?

How about a best of 3?

Knowing the stakes, would turnout go higher than yesterday's roughly 72%?

Fascinating, but I doubt we get to see it.

Okay, this is just speculation based on nothing, but I wonder if Scotland could have a referendum in which Scotland exiting the UK was contingent upon the UK exiting the EU. Something like, "Should Scotland leave the UK if and only if the UK leaves the EU-- yes/no?"

Should that vote pass, that might give a second Brexit vote legitimacy, as the scenario has changed-- much like Brexit has given a second Independence vote legitimacy.

Saying this as a thought experiment, not a prediction.

p.s. Olympic's scenario actual strikes me as plausible, FWIW.

[OldPhiKap]

But there was on question that he answered that stood out. Katy Tur of MSNBC asked if he had his foreign advisers with him on the flight knowing this vote was coming down. Asked if he had huddled with them to discuss to discuss the impact this could have on the US economy. His response: "Why? There's nothing to talk about". Interesting response. We've managed to fill a few pages talking about this. I would think a presidential candidate would want some discussion.

That is absolutely staggering.

I would think that under the British system, the possible answer would be for the government to resign and force a general election -- then for the party to run under the promise to force a second referendum.

The general election is likely anyway ... what happens if Cameron and company are returned to power?

The Leave camp was predominantly in the Conservative Party, to which Cameron belongs. So I don't think there will be a new general election, just a new PM from within the Conservative Party who thought this was the proper course of action. The leadership of almost every party was against leaving. The leader of the Labour Party (Jeremy Courbyn) is, I think, facing a potential no-confidence vote from some MPs who think he did a lousy job getting the party's supporters behind the Remain vote.

This is a big face smack to the establishment of all stripes. "Mind the gap."

[duke74]

It ain't often right,
but, it's never been wrong,
time to take your cash,
and just go long.

Just had a good discussion with my guys at ML...too early for that per them, but we did discuss using excess cash on this downswing...

BlackRock is the actual investment manager for me...and they and ML have been talking all morning.

ML thinks this dip is a correction back to pre vote levels (most thought it would not pass) - eg, giving back the rise. The actual effects of the vote were yet to be felt at 12:30 ish per my guy. Intuitively made sense.

[Jeffrey]

That is absolutely staggering.

And, IMO, not the way someone speaks when they truly want to be the next POTUS.

[Jeffrey]

Just had a good discussion with my guys at ML...too early for that per them, but we did discuss using excess cash on this downswing...

BlackRock is the actual investment manager for me...and they and ML have been talking all morning.

ML thinks this dip is a correction back to pre vote levels (most thought it would not pass) - eg, giving back the rise. The actual effects of the vote were yet to be felt at 12:30 ish per my guy. Intuitively made sense.

Sorry, multi-tasking... IMO, the actual effects of the vote are being felt and have been all day. The market may be wrong, but it moves quickly. IMO, certain companies and industries are providing nice entry opportunities today.

[duke74]

That is absolutely staggering.


The Leave camp was predominantly in the Conservative Party, to which Cameron belongs. So I don't think there will be a new general election, just a new PM from within the Conservative Party who thought this was the proper course of action. The leadership of almost every party was against leaving. The leader of the Labour Party (Jeremy Courbyn) is, I think, facing a potential no-confidence vote from some MPs who think he did a lousy job getting the party's supporters behind the Remain vote.

1. Not if you realize that he already knows everything about everyone. Asking is a sign of weakness, isn't it?

2. Courbyn has other issues he is facing, including allegations of anti-Semitism. Probably distracted a bit ... and overly confident of a "Bremain" vote."