Brexit & British Politics

[alteran]

It opens the door for an old Winston Churchill idea -- a formal union of English Speaking Nations.

Nations with a common language and (on the whole) common values.

A union of the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand -- each keeps its internal customs and forms -- they can have their Queen and Parliament, we keep our Congress and President. But internationally, the nations in the new union presents a united front on trade and defense ...

Great Britain belongs connected to us ... not to Europe.

I'd bet very long odds against this scenario.

[swood1000]

In retrospect, what the hell was Cameron thinking?

Right. Since when should democracy play a part in a thing like this?

[duke74]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7100466.html

[alteran]

I think it's basically impossible to predict the outcome of this. For example, do all the EU nationals living in London now have to leave? I would guess they will eventually. Like any deal, there are winners and losers. I'd imagine New York and the American financial industry would be among the winners, as at least some of the global finance folks in London are going to want/have to relocate. Aside from the panic, I don't see this as having a big effect on the US economy, but it will be cheaper to go to London, at least for a while!

Howard

The UK is the world's 5th largest economy, containing the world's second largest banking sector, and it just pooped the bed. It's political union may splinter.

I think we'll feel it.

[Mike Corey]

To those of you that are economists or economic experts: What's the short-term and long-term prognosis?

I'm having a hard time finding any silver lining to this news.

[OldPhiKap]

Probably a NAFTA type of arrangement.

London and Brussels (okay, really Berlin) will negotiate the treaty though -- not Dublin and Belfast. Northern Ireland gets whatever London gets in regard to the EU, and Northern Ireland is pretty small consideration in Westminster.

And if immigration is a key driver of the Leave camp, there will have to be border security. No common passport anymore between the northern six counties and the southern 26.

What a mess.

[swood1000]

It opens the door for an old Winston Churchill idea -- a formal union of English Speaking Nations.

Nations with a common language and (on the whole) common values.

A union of the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand -- each keeps its internal customs and forms -- they can have their Queen and Parliament, we keep our Congress and President. But internationally, the nations in the new union presents a united front on trade and defense ...

Great Britain belongs connected to us ... not to Europe.

I'd bet very long odds against this scenario.

Why?

[OldPhiKap]

Nice analogy.

Like the ACC, the EU has bent over backwards to accommodate the UK, I imagine it will be pretty PO'd.

Plus you have to have a high exit fee, or else others will follow. A lenient hand to the UK means a lenient hand to France and the Netherlands when they have their inevitable exit votes or pushes.

[swood1000]

And if immigration is a key driver of the Leave camp, there will have to be border security. No common passport anymore between the northern six counties and the southern 26.

What a mess.

But is the issue immigration from Scotland or immigration from Syria?

[alteran]

Right. Since when should democracy play a part in a thing like this?

Lighten up, Francis.

Referenda tend to create the opportunity for chaos. I don't think that's a hard concept to grasp.

It's one of the reasons our founding fathers created a republic, not a democracy.

[OldPhiKap]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7100466.html

"Wow. That escalated quickly."

[duke74]

To those of you that are economists or economic experts: What's the short-term and long-term prognosis?

I'm having a hard time finding any silver lining to this news.

Mike, try this. From the financial services sector's perspective

http://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages...ncial_services

[duke74]

Stream of consciousness here, but:


Clearly, the markets will be tumbling significantly. The pound and Euro are hitting long time lows against the dollar. Futures indicate significant sell off in US and potentially -10% in UK.

My hope is calmer heads will prevail and the markets will rebound in the days following. This won't take effect until 2019 or so.

Cameron may very well step down as PM today.

Xenophobia and the refugee crisis in the EU may have had a hand in this. With free movement between countries within the EU, the idea of a country without borders is not a country is significant here (sound familiar?) Anti establishment is big in this.

Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain. The Scottish movement to separate from the UK may get legs all over again.

Germany, France and Spain may very well have movements to exit the EU as well. Germany especially won't want to be the primary provider of capital for the rest of the EUs socialist programs. Can the EU survive?

How will this impact the nationalist, xenophobic movement within the US and in the presidential election? We are in for a ride.

Interesting times, indeed.

Excellent, prescient thoughts here. The parallels to our election season trends are striking, as you point out.

Cameron stepped down.

Scotland already discussing a referendum; the Dutch now have started discussing it (at least a right wing party).

I can't believe that France or Germany would take this initiative - especially France with its historic support for a united Europe (albeit resulting from WWII fears). But...depending on the events, they may be left as the rump of a withered EU so may have to do something structurally.

[swood1000]

Lighten up, Francis.

Referenda tend to create the opportunity for chaos. I don't think that's a hard concept to grasp.

It's one of the reasons our founding fathers created a republic, not a democracy.

It's an interesting dynamic, deciding which questions should be removed from consideration by the voters for their own good.

Apparently, the referendum had no legal effect and could still be blocked by Parliament, most of the members of which wanted to stay. They'll have a hard time voting against it at this point, though.

[budwom]

It's often true that the party (not political party) that chooses to leave tends to be highly (and overly) optimistic about
the next deal it can cut.

For forty plus years I've watched the ongoing attempts of many in Quebec to leave Canada. The Quebecois like to
paint a scenario called Sovereignty Association, in which Quebec runs itself (sovereignty) but gets to retain a lot
of important stuff like military protection and the Canadian dollar (association).

However, the rest of Canada isn't too impressed by this argument...either you're in or you're out they say, and if you're out you
can have your own military and currency. And some of the more conservative provinces (e.g. Alberta) would just as soon
help them pack.

(I'm not saying this to pick on the Quebecois, they have some genuine grievances...only to point out that exiting entities can
be too optimistic about what comes next.)

What's interesting about what happened in the UK vs Quebec is that in the UK, older citizens voted to leave, whereas in Quebec, older
people (presumably with a lot of financial concerns) tended to want to stay in Canada.

[swood1000]

The vote:

BrexitVote.jpg

[Troublemaker]

Brexit was somewhat underpolled (HuffPo)

WRT November's Presidential race in the U.S., I would want to see no less than a 5-pt lead in polls heading into Election Day if I were Hillary. Any less than that would make me uncomfortable about whether I'm really ahead.

[Troublemaker]

Oh man, Wimbledon starts in a few days, too.

I wonder whether Andy Murray was for or against Brexit.

[alteran]

It's an interesting dynamic, deciding which questions should be removed from consideration by the voters for their own good.

I'd prefer to take this aspect of the conversation offline, because it's besides the point, and I suspect what we're differing over here is not what we're actually discussing.

Apparently, the referendum had no legal effect and could still be blocked by Parliament, most of the members of which wanted to stay. They'll have a hard time voting against it at this point, though.

Yeah, I'm wondering if the effects are so disastrous that Parliament may just override, or force a second referendum vote. The former would be political suicide, and I doubt seriously it will happen. (And despite my apparent totalitarian leanings , it's an outcome I would not support.)

The latter I see as a long shot, but possible, given the stakes. I believe it would still be a slap in the face of the voting public and cynical, but it wouldn't shock me if it came to pass.

That being said, Cameron is on the record as saying that the will of the people absolutely has to be followed, so the lift for either of these actions just got that much higher.

[alteran]

Brexit was somewhat underpolled (HuffPo)

WRT November's Presidential race in the U.S., I would want to see no less than a 5-pt lead in polls heading into Election Day if I were Hillary. Any less than that would make me uncomfortable about whether I'm really ahead.

One thing that makes this more predictable in the US is that in the presidential election, it's not about overall polling, it's about the electoral college. I think this gives Trump a much larger lift than most people do.

But I agree, Brexit probably indicates that the voting public will lean more (searching for non-PPB board term)... protection-y... than most think.