Brexit & British Politics

[OldPhiKap]

Did May make a break-through?

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/11/europ...ntl/index.html

Not thinking so, but will see soon.

[budwom]

Did May make a break-through?

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/11/europ...ntl/index.html

Not thinking so, but will see soon.

That would be nice, but it sounds more like frosting on the turd pie. As the Brits like to say, they've really made a hash of this.

[OldPhiKap]

That would be nice, but it sounds more like frosting on the turd pie. As the Brits like to say, they've really made a hash of this.

Yeah, the Attorney General's opinion basically said that the addendum lowers the risk of getting held in the EU regs indefinitely but does not eliminate the risk.

Also saw some clarification on the votes per CNN:

Today -- May's deal with addendum, up or down. If it passes, that's Brexit. If not ->
Tomorrow -- should the UK just leave without a deal? If it passes, that's a crash-out Brexit. If not ->
Thursday -- should Brexit be delayed? (A) If it passes, they ask the EU to extend. All EU members must agree to the extension, I believe. If EU extends, the drama continues. (B) If the EU does not get agreement to extend, or if the motion fails, then it's a no-deal crash-out Brexit.

Smart money seems to be on May's deal failing; the no-deal Brexit failing; the delay request passing and the EU (despite hand-wringing) agreeing. But that third step seems to have the least clarity, at least to me. I am guessing though that if May's deal fails, your only two options as a MP is to either delay or crash out. So if Wednesday's vote fails, logic (to the extant that is applicable here) suggests that Thursday's vote has to pass.

[Kdogg]

Yeah, the Attorney General's opinion basically said that the addendum lowers the risk of getting held in the EU regs indefinitely but does not eliminate the risk.

Also saw some clarification on the votes per CNN:

Today -- May's deal with addendum, up or down. If it passes, that's Brexit. If not ->
Tomorrow -- should the UK just leave without a deal? If it passes, that's a crash-out Brexit. If not ->
Thursday -- should Brexit be delayed? (A) If it passes, they ask the EU to extend. All EU members must agree to the extension, I believe. If EU extends, the drama continues. (B) If the EU does not get agreement to extend, or if the motion fails, then it's a no-deal crash-out Brexit.

Smart money seems to be on May's deal failing; the no-deal Brexit failing; the delay request passing and the EU (despite hand-wringing) agreeing. But that third step seems to have the least clarity, at least to me. I am guessing though that if May's deal fails, your only two options as a MP is to either delay or crash out. So if Wednesday's vote fails, logic (to the extant that is applicable here) suggests that Thursday's vote has to pass.

Oh this mess is going to be extended. The fight will be two months or two years. May wants two months to finish before the EU elections. The EU wants two years because well the British are incompetent morons. (I can say that without violating forum rules because I was born English, still carry a British passport, and am in essence insulting myself...and its true.)

[JasonEvans]

Today -- May's deal with addendum, up or down. If it passes, that's Brexit. If not ->
Tomorrow -- should the UK just leave without a deal? If it passes, that's a crash-out Brexit. If not ->
Thursday -- should Brexit be delayed? (A) If it passes, they ask the EU to extend. All EU members must agree to the extension, I believe. If EU extends, the drama continues. (B) If the EU does not get agreement to extend, or if the motion fails, then it's a no-deal crash-out Brexit.

If you are an EU country that wants the UK to remain, wouldn't you just vote against an extension leaving May with a choice between a no-deal Brexit, something she has said she will not let happen, and calling for a revote. At some point a revote has to get on the table, right? Cause I have heard that a revote would probably end up with 55% or more staying they want to stay in the Union.

[Kdogg]

If you are an EU country that wants the UK to remain, wouldn't you just vote against an extension leaving May with a choice between a no-deal Brexit, something she has said she will not let happen, and calling for a revote. At some point a revote has to get on the table, right? Cause I have heard that a revote would probably end up with 55% or more staying they want to stay in the Union.

It's not so easy. Currently it's not a binary option of No Deal or Re-vote. Re-vote is still not a real option. It's only theoretical. It doesn't matter about the public sentiment. There are not enough MPs to back a second referendum amendment. That's why I called Corbyn's move last week a stunt. As of now it's May's deal or No Deal. If there is no extension Brexit is a go on March 29 2019. No ifs, ands, or buts. Without an extension, May can stop it by canceling Brexit all together. That's my hope. Problem is there are plenty of Tory and Labour MPs who would be fine with the no deal hard Brexit.

[JasonEvans]

May's deal filed by about 150 votes... I did not think it possible, but this is an even bigger mess than it used to be.

[howardlander]

May's deal filed by about 150 votes... I did not think it possible, but this is an even bigger mess than it used to be.

Maybe, I suppose we'll see what comes next. I think the next vote is on a No-Deal Brexit. I can't imagine that will pass, so I suspect they will have to request an extension from the EU. Is this the point where we point out again that the original vote was supposedly "advisory", whatever that means?

Howard "I hope there is food in London when I get there on May 4" Lander

[OldPhiKap]

May's deal filed by about 150 votes... I did not think it possible, but this is an even bigger mess than it used to be.

Maybe, I suppose we'll see what comes next. I think the next vote is on a No-Deal Brexit. I can't imagine that will pass, so I suspect they will have to request an extension from the EU. Is this the point where we point out again that the original vote was supposedly "advisory", whatever that means?

Howard "I hope there is food in London when I get there on May 4" Lander

Stock up on mustard and marmalade just in case.

A few weeks ago, France and Spain were both signaling that they were not wholly on board with giving an extension unless the UK had a plan of action as opposed to just punting the ball. I will be curious to see if the "ask for an extension" vote specifies a certain length of time, or if that is a matter of negotiation. As someone pointed out upthread, the timeline desired by the UK is not necessarily the same as the timeline desired by the EU.

Still plenty of ways this can all go even further off the rail. Once you light the fuse and tell everyone else to go screw themselves, things kinda get out of your sole control quickly. This does not seem to be a lesson that many Brexiteers have learned.

[-jk]

Will we see Northern Ireland and Scotland leave England/Wales and rejoin the EU? (I don't really see Wales leaving, but that could happen, too, I suppose.)

Scotland barely remained a few years ago...

-jk

[howardlander]

Will we see Northern Ireland and Scotland leave England/Wales and rejoin the EU? (I don't really see Wales leaving, but that could happen, too, I suppose.)

Scotland barely remained a few years ago...

-jk

And if I remember correctly, Scotland voted pretty strongly to remain. Another referendum on Scottish independence wouldn't be particularly surprising. Northern Ireland is a pretty interesting case. Is there any significant sentiment for independence there? That seems like it would open a host of possibilities, many of them maybe not all that positive, but I suppose it would fix the backstop issue...

Howard

[Kdogg]

Will we see Northern Ireland and Scotland leave England/Wales and rejoin the EU? (I don't really see Wales leaving, but that could happen, too, I suppose.)

Scotland barely remained a few years ago...

-jk

Still a slight possibility for Scotland but not a chance for Northern Ireland and even less for Wales. There is not a real big movement in Northern Ireland to leave the UK as either an independent or by reunification with Ireland. Just Sinn Fiens drum beat. The Scots had their chance but a future vote would face a new world order. The Scottish economy is dependent on oil and natural gas. The problem is two fold. Not only are those resources dwindling but the world is moving towards renewables. Look how Norway is moving investments out of traditional fossil fuel companies in anticipation of this. The problem is the Scots don’t have their own sovereign wealth fund.

The reality is that it would be difficult for either to stand on their own in a few decades. They will be more dependent on Westminster.

[Kdogg]

I’m wondering if May’s playing the long con. She was always a Remainer and today is the list time I’ve heard HEr say re-vote or cancellation where options for the House.

It’s the last 30 seconds.

[-jk]

...
The reality is that it would be difficult for either to stand on their own in a few decades. They will be more dependent on Westminster.

But they wouldn't be standing on their own; they'd be part of the EU!

-jk

[Kdogg]

But they wouldn't be standing on their own; they'd be part of the EU!

-jk

True, but how many countries can the EU subsidies? It's one of the reasons the eastern Europeans are for the UK to remain. That and their distrust of the Germans
Economically the EU is pretty fragile. I don't know how Macron can preach fiscal disciple and then cave to protester endangering that disciple. If there is every a problem with the German economy watch out.

[-jk]

True, but how many countries can the EU subsidies? It's one of the reasons the eastern Europeans are for the UK to remain. That and their distrust of the Germans
Economically the EU is pretty fragile. I don't know how Macron can preach fiscal disciple and then cave to protester endangering that disciple. If there is every a problem with the German economy watch out.

I was with a company with a few EU offices as it came together - they're a mess. Which is messier, though: Brexit or clinging to the EU? Tough choice!

-jk

[sagegrouse]

Still a slight possibility for Scotland but not a chance for Northern Ireland and even less for Wales. There is not a real big movement in Northern Ireland to leave the UK as either an independent or by reunification with Ireland. Just Sinn Fiens drum beat. The Scots had their chance but a future vote would face a new world order. The Scottish economy is dependent on oil and natural gas. The problem is two fold. Not only are those resources dwindling but the world is moving towards renewables. Look how Norway is moving investments out of traditional fossil fuel companies in anticipation of this. The problem is the Scots don’t have their own sovereign wealth fund.

The reality is that it would be difficult for either to stand on their own in a few decades. They will be more dependent on Westminster.

I can't speak for Northern Ireland, but attitudes in Scotland may have become more realistic. Scottish trade with the rest of the UK is several times the level of Scottish trade with the the EU.

aha, here's some stats from the top of my Google match:

Scotland's biggest trading partner continues to be rest of UK. The Scottish Government's annual trade statistics ('Export Statistics Scotland') show that in 2016 Scotland exported more than £45 billion in goods and services to England, Wales and Northern Ireland – while exports to the EU total £12.7 billion.J

[OldPhiKap]

Northern Ireland is a result of the 1921 Treaty and resulted in a bloody civil war. I’m as Irish as they come on this side of the Pond, but igniting passion about the prospect of Irish unification is to light a powder keg.

There’s an old Irish saying — being Irish means taking a punch for something your granddad did. Memories are as long as they are mythologized.

[Kdogg]

I was with a company with a few EU offices as it came together - they're a mess. Which is messier, though: Brexit or clinging to the EU? Tough choice!

-jk

That's true and honestly I don't know. There is a rational school of thought that believes that the EU will collapse and the UK is best to be ahead of it. It's possible but I don't see it in my lifetime. If you want to talk about the potential collapse of the euro currency and monetary policy I'm there. But even then they would just be reverting to late 80s / early 90s Euro Zone with added regulations and Germany not benefitting from an artificially depressed currency. It would still exist as a free trade zone and the UK has it's own fiscal policy, monetary policy and currency. It would ahead of the game.

[OldPhiKap]

Update: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47562995

Vote to leave without a deal loses -- but only by a few votes. Was it supposed to be this close?

BBC says that next up is a vote on whether to extend Brexit by about 2 months (I thought the vote was tomorrow? -- this article seems to say both tomorrow and "now")