Brexit & British Politics

[77devil]

Could well be...the Brits won't have a good bargaining position. On the other hand, history has shown (I think almost everyone would agree) that the Brits were VERY smart in not joining the Eurozone, keeping the pound instead. So perhaps they'll come out of this in decent shape. I suspect the mass of financiers in London might have the biggest problems.

Scotland and Northern Ireland will likely vote to leave the United Kingdom, the latter joining Ireland, in order to retain membership in the EU. An economically successful Brexit will be harder to achieve. As an investor, I'm staying on the sidelines for awhile. I think there's more short term carnage to come.

[weezie]

Anyone here care to voice an opinion on Scotland's possibly going through their own "leave" vote again?

Whoops, sorry didn't see 77's comment above.

[swood1000]

According to an NPR commentator many on the "leave" side were motivated by the desire to reduce the influx of low-wage immigrants. If so, there is an interesting parallel to Donald Trump's appeal to many in this country.

[duke74]

According to an NPR commentator many on the "leave" side were motivated by the desire to reduce the influx of low-wage immigrants. If so, there is an interesting parallel to Donald Trump's appeal to many in this country.

Agree. There is a host of parallels with events in the US. Popularism and resentment of dictates from Brussels (a supranational organization vs an intergovernmental one). A generational gap with a "break even" of support coming at the age of 50 (witness the generational gap between Bernie and Hillary support).

I look at this as the first in a series of dominos to fall as the EU cracks under its own weight - and Scotland at a minimum recharges its own independence movement.

Here's a good regulatory summary for financial services companies by my (former) firm. http://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages...briefing.html#

[Troublemaker]

Ben Riley-Smith
✔@benrileysmith

HOW AGES VOTED
(YouGov poll)
18-24: 75% Remain
25-49: 56% Remain
50-64: 44% Remain
65+: 39% Remain
#EUref
5:24 PM - 23 Jun 2016

[OldPhiKap]

Scotland and Northern Ireland will likely vote to leave the United Kingdom, the latter joining Ireland, in order to retain membership in the EU. An economically successful Brexit will be harder to achieve. As an investor, I'm staying on the sidelines for awhile. I think there's more short term carnage to come.

I am particularly interested to see what happens in Northern Ireland. The history of Irish unification/Ulsterism is complex and often violent.

I was in Dublin a few weeks ago, and they are celebrating the 100 year anniversary of the 1916 Easter Rising. One woman I met referred to Northern Ireland as "the unfinished business of 1916." Ireland's civil war (1922-1923) -- and the compromise that separated the six counties from the remaining 26 -- is still a relatively recent wound. The Troubles were not that long ago, not ending until the Good Friday Agreement in 1998.

There's an old saying that "being Irish means taking a punch for something your grandfather did." Long memories, deep divisions.

[cato]

I am particularly interested to see what happens in Northern Ireland. The history of Irish unification/Ulsterism is complex and often violent.

I was in Dublin a few weeks ago, and they are celebrating the 100 year anniversary of the 1916 Easter Rising. One woman I met referred to Northern Ireland as "the unfinished business of 1916." Ireland's civil war -- and the compromise that separated the six counties from the remaining 26 -- is still a relatively recent wound.

There's an old saying that "being Irish means taking a punch for something your grandfather did." Long memories, deep divisions.

As I remarked to my wife last night: wouldn't it be amazing if an English vote to leave the EU is what ultimately reunited Ireland?

[swood1000]

According to a fivethirtyeight article the UK accounts for 13% of the EU population and 15% of its economic output, and is the equivalent of New York, New Jersey plus New England splitting off from the U.S. I don't know what percentage of that is Scotland and Northern Ireland.

[Troublemaker]

Is Farage going to rebuild Hadrian's Wall and make Scotland pay for it?

[swood1000]

Population:

GB_population.jpg

[OldPhiKap]

As I remarked to my wife last night: wouldn't it be amazing if an English vote to leave the EU is what ultimately reunited Ireland?

I'm not sure what they do with their land border. Back to passport checkpoints and customs houses on both sides, I guess. Pay your tariffs at the border.

This presents a series of unique challenges to Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland is also a very large recipient of EU assistance, I believe. Guess the UK gets to pick up that bill, or else risk unease in Ulster. Sinn Fien is reportedly already making noise about a renewed push for unification.

This whole Brexit thing to me is like the dog that catches the car. Okay, you got it. Now what do you do?

[duke74]

Ben Riley-Smith
✔@benrileysmith

HOW AGES VOTED
(YouGov poll)
18-24: 75% Remain
25-49: 56% Remain
50-64: 44% Remain
65+: 39% Remain
#EUref
5:24 PM - 23 Jun 2016

Exactly my point above re the generations. Thanks for posting

[swood1000]

Scotland does a heck of a lot more trade with the UK than it does with the EU. On the right is Northern Ireland.

ScotlandTrade.jpg NorthIreland.jpg

[77devil]

Scotland does a heck of a lot more trade with the UK than it does with the EU. Next to that is Northern Ireland.

ScotlandTrade.jpg NorthIreland.jpg

Obviously, economics is not the only sentiment in a Scotland stay/leave decision.

[Reilly]

... This whole Brexit thing to me is like the dog that catches the car. Okay, you got it. Now what do you do?

Sniff it warily, then pee.

[swood1000]

Looks like England has about 85% of the GVA (gross value added) of the United Kingdom.

UK_GVA.jpg

[swood1000]

This whole Brexit thing to me is like the dog that catches the car. Okay, you got it. Now what do you do?

Similar to thoughts that might be going through Trump's head about now.

[duke74]

Obviously, economics is not the only sentiment in a Scotland stay/leave decision.

Completely agree with this. A "rational person" framework does not work for that analysis, nor apparently did it work for analyzing the referendum.

Think about the parallels: Populist drivers, resentment of a "foreign" authority (London/Brussels), and nationalism (sovereignty).

The genie is out of the bottle...the snowball is rolling down the hill...the dominos are falling (add your own cliché) The Dutch may be the next to propose a vote per an article I just saw.

Strap on your seat belts...at least for the near term, we're in for a bumpy ride.

[swood1000]

I'm not sure what they do with their land border. Back to passport checkpoints and customs houses on both sides, I guess. Pay your tariffs at the border.

Probably a NAFTA type of arrangement.

[alteran]

Someone said it perfectly before: the Continent will likely view the UK leaving the same way ACC schools viewed Maryland leaving. Which is to say, it will not be a pleasant divorce.

Nice analogy.

Like the ACC, the EU has bent over backwards to accommodate the UK, I imagine it will be pretty PO'd.

Scotland (obviously) and Northern Ireland are making noises about independence votes. I'd say Scotland getting out is a no-brainer at this point.

In retrospect, what the hell was Cameron thinking?