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  1. #261
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    Sep 2007
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    All is not smooth on the way out the door . . . .

    “Bob says run! Bob says run! Bob says run!”

    {good pick-up after handoff}

    “Bob was right! Bob was right! Bob was right!”

  2. #262
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    All is not smooth on the way out the door . . . .
    IMO, the economic issues have issues and are much more complex than most politicians and voters realize.

  3. #263
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffrey View Post
    IMO, the economic issues have issues and are much more complex than most politicians and voters realize.
    The hardest hardline Brexit politicians understand; they just don’t care. In their reality of rainbows and unicorns, a No Deal is best. That leads to a complete break with the EU. Never mind the absolute chaos and pain for the common Brit. I curse David Cameron every day. If miracles of miracles happen and England wins the World Cup it will just empower these hardliners and their supporters. Of course we revert to the mean so it’s not likely.

  4. #264
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
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    On the Road to Nowhere
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    how I miss carburetors...temperature twenty below zero, car won't start, just take off the air filter, spray some ether into the carb, and (step back), boom she starts.
    Now I look under the hood and everything is hidden by a big, menacing black panel.

    on the Brexit deal, the vote is being interpreted as perhaps being led by more younger voters who 1) are not keen on Brexit, and 2) evidently felt they've taken the
    brunt of Conservative austerity measures (not getting political, just reporting what's been stated)
    I fail to understand why anyone would live in a place that reached -20, let alone leave the house.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    The hardest hardline Brexit politicians understand; they just don’t care. In their reality of rainbows and unicorns, a No Deal is best. That leads to a complete break with the EU. Never mind the absolute chaos and pain for the common Brit. I curse David Cameron every day. If miracles of miracles happen and England wins the World Cup it will just empower these hardliners and their supporters. Of course we revert to the mean so it’s not likely.
    Please don't make me waver in my only rooting interest remaining in the World Cup. I know you're right, but it's so silly that countries take success in a sporting event to mean anything more than that victory.

    Re chaos and pain for the common Brit...elections/votes have consequences. It's why I have difficulty generating much empathy (or is it sympathy...or both?) anymore. And I'll stop there before I go all PPB on ya.

  5. #265
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    Sep 2007
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    Given that the original intent of the thread was to avoid PPB (i.e. "is Brexit good or bad?") and to instead just discuss the politics of it, I'll avoid opining on what is the "best" approach. Needless to say, May is in a pickle. Her party is torn between a hard Brexit and soft Brexit; her major opposition party is relishing the infighting after Labor's own internal leadership fight last year; the Northern Irish party that makes up the governing majority with the Torries does not want to return to a hard border with the Republic of Ireland (and I assume is not overly keen on a hard Brexit); Scotland wants to stay in the EU and had an acrimonious independence election a few years ago which may get restoked; etc. And that's just the stuff I can see from across the pond without any real insight.

    It's a real mess, and the deadline is nine months from now more or less to be gone. Cannot imagine that deadline will be met.
    “Bob says run! Bob says run! Bob says run!”

    {good pick-up after handoff}

    “Bob was right! Bob was right! Bob was right!”

  6. #266
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
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    On the Road to Nowhere
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Given that the original intent of the thread was to avoid PPB (i.e. "is Brexit good or bad?") and to instead just discuss the politics of it, I'll avoid opining on what is the "best" approach. Needless to say, May is in a pickle. Her party is torn between a hard Brexit and soft Brexit; her major opposition party is relishing the infighting after Labor's own internal leadership fight last year; the Northern Irish party that makes up the governing majority with the Torries does not want to return to a hard border with the Republic of Ireland (and I assume is not overly keen on a hard Brexit); Scotland wants to stay in the EU and had an acrimonious independence election a few years ago which may get restoked; etc. And that's just the stuff I can see from across the pond without any real insight.

    It's a real mess, and the deadline is nine months from now more or less to be gone. Cannot imagine that deadline will be met.
    What are the consequences of missing that deadline? Was it imposed by the vote or the EU?

  7. #267
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    [QUOTE=dudog84;1079827]I fail to understand why anyone would live in a place that reached -20, let alone leave the house.


    It keeps out the riff raff. 82 degrees now, sunny, can't hear a single sound other than a few mouthy birds...

  8. #268
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    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    What are the consequences of missing that deadline? Was it imposed by the vote or the EU?
    Do not know the consequences. I believe the deadline is set by the article in the EU agreement on withdrawal. Something like 2 years from the giving of notice of intent to withdraw, IIRC.

    Will hunt around tonight after work for more info. I imagine the deadline can be extended by mutual consent, although the consequences may be such that one party will be reticent to give consent. The EU has been clear that they want this done ASAP.
    “Bob says run! Bob says run! Bob says run!”

    {good pick-up after handoff}

    “Bob was right! Bob was right! Bob was right!”

  9. #269
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    What are the consequences of missing that deadline? Was it imposed by the vote or the EU?
    Trade wise the U.K. and the EU will revert to WTO rules. That means custom checks, tariffs, quotas, etc. and trade grinds to a halt..literally. Shipments will have to be checked at ports or other locations in the U.K. and the EU. A real physical boarder between Ireland and Northern Ireland has to happen because of this. It’s the only unrestricted boarder between the U.K. and the EU.

    The rights of Brits living in the EU and EU citizens in the U.K. will be in limbo. So will their work and immigration status. Will the Spaniards who work in Gibraltar be allowed in? Who knows.

    Regulations for everything from aviation to pharmaceuticals will also be in limbo.

    The U.K. financial firms will loose passporting rights but most have already made plans to deal with this. That might be the only segment prepared for this.

    Boris Johnson running around London drunk and singing Rule, Britannia! OK that’s just speculation but a real possibility.

    One would think common sense would prevail and the two sides would at least have some temporary measures but it has become a game of chicken with the U.K. over playing it’s hand. Sure there will be pain for the EU but I can see them knowingly cut their nose to spite their face and live with the pain.

    Nothing stops May from at anytime saying until then: Sorry our bad. We’re staying for now.
    Last edited by Kdogg; 07-09-2018 at 06:04 PM.

  10. #270
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    Sep 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    Nothing stops May from at anytime saying until then: Sorry our bad. We’re staying for now.
    Does the UK have that unilateral choice? Don't they need to reapply for admittance?

    Thanks for the other info!

    Oh, and from the BBC -- Crossing the Irish border four times in ten minutes:

    https://t.co/RuzBqzvG5x
    “Bob says run! Bob says run! Bob says run!”

    {good pick-up after handoff}

    “Bob was right! Bob was right! Bob was right!”

  11. #271
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    On the Road to Nowhere
    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    Trade wise the U.K. and the EU will revert to WTO rules. That means custom checks, tariffs, quotas, etc. and trade grinds to a halt..literally. Shipments will have to be checked at ports or other locations in the U.K. and the EU. A real physical boarder between Ireland and Northern Ireland has to happen because of this. It’s the only unrestricted boarder between the U.K. and the EU.

    The rights of Brits living in the EU and EU citizens in the U.K. will be in limbo. So will their work and immigration status. Will the Spaniards who work in Gibraltar be allowed in? Who knows.

    Regulations for everything from aviation to pharmaceuticals will also be in limbo.

    The U.K. financial firms will loose passporting rights but most have already made plans to deal with this. That might be the only segment prepared for this.

    Boris Johnson running around London drunk and singing Rule, Britannia! OK that’s just speculation but a real possibility.

    One would think common sense would prevail and the two sides would at least have some temporary measures but it has become a game of chicken with the U.K. over playing it’s hand. Sure there will be pain for the EU but I can see them knowingly cut their nose to spite their face and live with the pain.

    Nothing stops May from at anytime saying until then: Sorry our bad. We’re staying for now.
    Re Boris: That's funny!

    Re May: Really? Don't they have to follow the referendum? Sorry for my ignorance, I haven't followed it that closely. Enough domestic s#*% to keep track of. ...

  12. #272
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    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Re Boris: That's funny!

    Re May: Really? Don't they have to follow the referendum? Sorry for my ignorance, I haven't followed it that closely. Enough domestic s#*% to keep track of. ...
    I believe it went through the Courts, and the Courts held that Parliament has the final binding say on the matter. I do not think that the referendum, technically, is binding.

    Going from memory.

    So politically, the Torries kinda sorta have to follow the referendum because they promised they would. The Scots are still opposed. Labor has been, er, inconsistent on the matter the best I can tell.

    But again, I'm not sure that it's their unilateral choice anymore. They lit the fuse.
    “Bob says run! Bob says run! Bob says run!”

    {good pick-up after handoff}

    “Bob was right! Bob was right! Bob was right!”

  13. #273
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    I believe it went through the Courts, and the Courts held that Parliament has the final binding say on the matter. I do not think that the referendum, technically, is binding.

    Going from memory.

    So politically, the Torries kinda sorta have to follow the referendum because they promised they would. The Scots are still opposed. Labor has been, er, inconsistent on the matter the best I can tell.

    But again, I'm not sure that it's their unilateral choice anymore. They lit the fuse.
    That’s pretty much it. The referendum was no binding but political suicide not to see it through.

    The man who wrote Article 50 says it’s reversible and a few EU members say the same thing and would welcome the U.K. back. I’m not sure the legality will ever be tested though.

  14. #274
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    That’s pretty much it. The referendum was no binding but political suicide not to see it through.

    The man who wrote Article 50 says it’s reversible and a few EU members say the same thing and would welcome the U.K. back. I’m not sure the legality will ever be tested though.
    FWIW, this says that once set in motion it takes unanimous agreement to stop the divorce:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...-need-to-read/

    A more in-depth analysis, concluding that the answer is murky because the clause is not written very well — but it ultimately comes down to political will:

    https://qz.com/1126174/brexit-can-ar...ts-are-unsure/

    My guess is that if a nation was against it, there would be a challenge. But I still think the odds of a reversal by the U.K. is low anyway.
    “Bob says run! Bob says run! Bob says run!”

    {good pick-up after handoff}

    “Bob was right! Bob was right! Bob was right!”

  15. #275
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
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    On the Road to Nowhere
    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    That’s pretty much it. The referendum was no binding but political suicide not to see it through.

    The man who wrote Article 50 says it’s reversible and a few EU members say the same thing and would welcome the U.K. back. I’m not sure the legality will ever be tested though.
    I'm not sure there's any such thing anymore. And wasn't it a very close vote, and some thought that if it was held again (e.g. a month later) the vote would have been different? Turnout, etc.

    Edit: My thought is that if there was a general feeling of remorse (that it was just some spleen venting), and it was not binding, why not have another vote?

  16. #276
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    FWIW, this says that once set in motion it takes unanimous agreement to stop the divorce:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...-need-to-read/

    A more in-depth analysis, concluding that the answer is murky because the clause is not written very well — but it ultimately comes down to political will:

    https://qz.com/1126174/brexit-can-ar...ts-are-unsure/

    My guess is that if a nation was against it, there would be a challenge. But I still think the odds of a reversal by the U.K. is low anyway.
    Thanks for the research. Found this in the comments section of the first article you linked:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...-finances.html

    Eerily familiar. I'm glad Vlad wasn't around in the depths of the Cold War. He's quite wily...and not like the coyote of looney tunes fame.

  17. #277
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    I'm not sure there's any such thing anymore. And wasn't it a very close vote, and some thought that if it was held again (e.g. a month later) the vote would have been different? Turnout, etc.

    Edit: My thought is that if there was a general feeling of remorse (that it was just some spleen venting), and it was not binding, why not have another vote?
    I whole heartedly agree but the British are loathed to admit when they are wrong.

  18. #278
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    Support for a second referrendum grows:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sk...-poll-11454299

  19. #279
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    Nov 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Support for a second referrendum grows:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sk...-poll-11454299
    very good article in last week's New Yorker about Brexit, it is a Gordon Knot of the highest level...easiest path by far would be to Exit Brexit...the customs/duties/tariff issues alone
    are projected to result in 17 mile traffic jams in Dover among hundreds of other hideous issues...as one who once worked on the US/Canada border doing customs work, this is easy to believe.

  20. #280
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    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    very good article in last week's New Yorker about Brexit, it is a Gordon Knot of the highest level...easiest path by far would be to Exit Brexit...the customs/duties/tariff issues alone
    are projected to result in 17 mile traffic jams in Dover among hundreds of other hideous issues...as one who once worked on the US/Canada border doing customs work, this is easy to believe.
    And neither Northern Ireland nor the Republic of Ireland want to return to a hard border. Just making the Irish Sea the de facto physical border does not resolve the EU/non-EU goods problem.

    Not to mention Scotland, which has rattled the threat of another referendum on Scottish independence although I'm not sure how serious that threat really is.

    At least the English are finding out what colonists had to go through when declaring independence from the crown. Independence from a foreign rule-maker is sometimes easier expressed than implemented. (And if the UK wants to trade in the EU zone, they are going to have to meet the EU regs anyway . . . .)
    “Bob says run! Bob says run! Bob says run!”

    {good pick-up after handoff}

    “Bob was right! Bob was right! Bob was right!”

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