Brexit & British Politics

[OldPhiKap]

Polls in the UK close at 10:00 London time (5pm EST here) on Brexit. This is big. Probably won't know final results until tomorrow morning (those on the West Coast or further east night owls may know before they go to bed).

[cato]

Polls in the UK close at 10:00 London time (5pm EST here) on Brexit. This is big. Probably won't know final results until tomorrow morning (those on the West Coast or further east night owls may know before they go to bed).

I've been trying to figure this out -- have you seen anything reliable on when we might get results? I'm not a night owl, but am on the West Coast.

[OldPhiKap]

I've been trying to figure this out -- have you seen anything reliable on when we might get results? I'm not a night owl, but am on the West Coast.

I do not know how reliable the link below is, but it seems in line with what I heard on NPR this morning:

http://www.vox.com/2016/6/23/1200647...me-polls-close

[Jeffrey]

I've been trying to figure this out -- have you seen anything reliable on when we might get results? I'm not a night owl, but am on the West Coast.

FWIW, the US stock market had a rather strong opinion today.

[OldPhiKap]

FWIW, the US stock market had a rather strong opinion today.

The betting in England has been fairly well slanted to the "In" side of the bet for a long time, even when the polls show that it is relatively close (with about 10%-15% undecided).

[Olympic Fan]

The betting in England has been fairly well slanted to the "In" side of the bet for a long time, even when the polls show that it is relatively close (with about 10%-15% undecided).

Early returns have flipped the odds.

It's still too close to call, but the betting is now "63 percent" that the leave side wins.

[OldPhiKap]

Early returns have flipped the odds.

It's still too close to call, but the betting is now "63 percent" that the leave side wins.

Leave looking strong and starting to pull away. . . .

[Tom B.]

Leave looking strong and starting to pull away. . . .

BBC has called it. Leave wins.

[Troublemaker]

[pfrduke]

Let's stay away from PPB commentary on the merits of Brexit, but open season for observations on what's going to happen from here. I'm stunned by the results.

[BandAlum83]

Let's stay away from PPB commentary on the merits of Brexit, but open season for observations on what's going to happen from here. I'm stunned by the results.

Stream of consciousness here, but:


Clearly, the markets will be tumbling significantly. The pound and Euro are hitting long time lows against the dollar. Futures indicate significant sell off in US and potentially -10% in UK.

My hope is calmer heads will prevail and the markets will rebound in the days following. This won't take effect until 2019 or so.

Cameron may very well step down as PM today.

Xenophobia and the refugee crisis in the EU may have had a hand in this. With free movement between countries within the EU, the idea of a country without borders is not a country is significant here (sound familiar?) Anti establishment is big in this.

Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain. The Scottish movement to separate from the UK may get legs all over again.

Germany, France and Spain may very well have movements to exit the EU as well. Germany especially won't want to be the primary provider of capital for the rest of the EUs socialist programs. Can the EU survive?

How will this impact the nationalist, xenophobic movement within the US and in the presidential election? We are in for a ride.

Interesting times, indeed.

[duke74]

Stream of consciousness here, but:


Clearly, the markets will be tumbling significantly. The pound and Euro are hitting long time lows against the dollar. Futures indicate significant sell off in US and potentially -10% in UK.

My hope is calmer heads will prevail and the markets will rebound in the days following. This won't take effect until 2019 or so.

Cameron may very well step down as PM today.

Xenophobia and the refugee crisis in the EU may have had a hand in this. With free movement between countries within the EU, the idea of a country without borders is not a country is significant here (sound familiar?) Anti establishment is big in this.

Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain. The Scottish movement to separate from the UK may get legs all over again.

Germany, France and Spain may very well have movements to exit the EU as well. Germany especially won't want to be the primary provider of capital for the rest of the EUs socialist programs. Can the EU survive?

How will this impact the nationalist, xenophobic movement within the US and in the presidential election? We are in for a ride.

Interesting times, indeed.

Excellent, prescient thoughts here. The parallels to our election season trends are striking, as you point out.

Cameron stepped down.

Scotland already discussing a referendum; the Dutch now have started discussing it (at least a right wing party).

I can't believe that France or Germany would take this initiative - especially France with its historic support for a united Europe (albeit resulting from WWII fears). But...depending on the events, they may be left as the rump of a withered EU so may have to do something structurally.

[Olympic Fan]

It opens the door for an old Winston Churchill idea -- a formal union of English Speaking Nations.

Nations with a common language and (on the whole) common values.

A union of the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand -- each keeps its internal customs and forms -- they can have their Queen and Parliament, we keep our Congress and President. But internationally, the nations in the new union presents a united front on trade and defense ...

Great Britain belongs connected to us ... not to Europe.

[alteran]

It opens the door for an old Winston Churchill idea -- a formal union of English Speaking Nations.

Nations with a common language and (on the whole) common values.

A union of the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand -- each keeps its internal customs and forms -- they can have their Queen and Parliament, we keep our Congress and President. But internationally, the nations in the new union presents a united front on trade and defense ...

Great Britain belongs connected to us ... not to Europe.

I'd bet very long odds against this scenario.

[swood1000]

It opens the door for an old Winston Churchill idea -- a formal union of English Speaking Nations.

Nations with a common language and (on the whole) common values.

A union of the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand -- each keeps its internal customs and forms -- they can have their Queen and Parliament, we keep our Congress and President. But internationally, the nations in the new union presents a united front on trade and defense ...

Great Britain belongs connected to us ... not to Europe.

I'd bet very long odds against this scenario.

Why?

[snowdenscold]

It opens the door for an old Winston Churchill idea -- a formal union of English Speaking Nations.

Nations with a common language and (on the whole) common values.

A union of the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand -- each keeps its internal customs and forms -- they can have their Queen and Parliament, we keep our Congress and President. But internationally, the nations in the new union presents a united front on trade and defense ...

Well, the Five Eyes intelligence sharing initiative amongst the U.S, U.K., Australia, Canada and New Zealand did develop out of that post-WWII vision.

And although it's far from a formal union, there are many buildings here in the U.S. (owned by private corporations who do business with the Federal government) that you are not allowed to enter unless you hold a passport to one of the above five nations.

Great Britain belongs connected to us ... not to Europe.

Here is the new youtube link to the UK vs. England vs. Britain video that's now gone off that FB post: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNu8XDBSn10

Note he addresses your comment around the 2:00 mark

[cato]

FWIW, the US stock market had a rather strong opinion today.

I turned on live news coverage (is CNN my only choice? Really?) when the pound tumbled.

[BandAlum83]

I turned on live news coverage (is CNN my only choice? Really?) when the pound tumbled.

All have been covering live since at least 12 eastern time. CNN, FOX, MSNBC, FOX BUSINESS, CNBC

[cato]

All have been covering live since at least 12 eastern time. CNN, FOX, MSNBC, FOX BUSINESS, CNBC

I tried to locate CNBC, but gave up. The others, I did not.

[YmoBeThere]

Bloomberg too. The UK was always a reluctant member, with many exceptions to EU rules including how much it contributed financially. Is it going to be chaos and anarchy? Not in my opinion, but it will be a bitter divorce with protracted settlement talks. FWIW, I do think this changes things on the Intellectual Property front where the EU has gone after large US corporations such as Microsoft and Alphabet(nee Google) on monopoly concerns.