Brexit & British Politics

[pfrduke]

So true.

Yeah Stewart is the non nutter, non delusional, non Boris candidate. It's a shock he has made it to round three.

John Oliver's intro segment on Rory Stewart from a week ago was extremely funny. The Zapruder-esque deep dive into an early 90s soccer tackle on the princes was <chef's kiss>.

[Kdogg]

Rory eliminated today. Didn't think he would make but didn't think he would lose votes overnight. Must be a lot of arm twisting within the Tory "leadership." All remaining candidates publicly have stated the would support a No Deal if (when) it come to it. Good times in the UK.

[OldPhiKap]

Boris got 143 votes. Hunt, Gove and Javid have 143 combined.

How many of Stewart's votes go to Boris?
Does Hunt, Gove or Javid cut a deal with Boris and throw their support to him?
Does Ian Blackford's head explode? (I heard he threw major no-no shade at Boris in Parliament today -- have not seen it yet -- that drew a rebuke from the Speaker).

[JasonEvans]

Boris got 143 votes. Hunt, Gove and Javid have 143 combined.

How many of Stewart's votes go to Boris?
Does Hunt, Gove or Javid cut a deal with Boris and throw their support to him?
Does Ian Blackford's head explode? (I heard he threw major no-no shade at Boris in Parliament today -- have not seen it yet -- that drew a rebuke from the Speaker).

To be clear, Boris could get more than 50% and it would not matter. The process is to have the Tories in Parliament narrow things to 2 candidates and then conduct a vote among the 124,000 common folks who are registered as members of the Conservative Party. I think they do that by mail, but I am not certain. I have not seen any surveys of Boris' popularity among the regular folks out there.

[OldPhiKap]

To be clear, Boris could get more than 50% and it would not matter. The process is to have the Tories in Parliament narrow things to 2 candidates and then conduct a vote among the 124,000 common folks who are registered as members of the Conservative Party. I think they do that by mail, but I am not certain. I have not seen any surveys of Boris' popularity among the regular folks out there.

Thanks!

[Kdogg]

To be clear, Boris could get more than 50% and it would not matter. The process is to have the Tories in Parliament narrow things to 2 candidates and then conduct a vote among the 124,000 common folks who are registered as members of the Conservative Party. I think they do that by mail, but I am not certain. I have not seen any surveys of Boris' popularity among the regular folks out there.

The winner will be declared July 22 if it goes to postal ballots. That's assuming one of the two remaining candidate does not withdraw. May's opponent (Andrea Leadsom) pulled out before the postal ballots were sent. If Boris wins big there will be a lot of pressure for the second place guy to withdraw.

If it goes to membership, that will give the new PM just over three months to do what the government could not do in three years. Hello general election!

[OldPhiKap]

Any idea what DUP thinks of Boris? They do not have a say in this process AFAIK but they could yank the rug out as soon as a PM is named, right? DUP has been confusing to me but I cannot imagine that they are in favor of a no-deal Brexit.

[JasonEvans]

that will give the new PM just over three months to do what the government could not do in three years. Hello general election! no deal Brexit!

FIFY.

This has been the desire of many Tories for a while now. The majority of the country does not want it, but they would be delighted at a hard border and a crash out.

[OldPhiKap]

The winner will be declared July 22 if it goes to postal ballots. That's assuming one of the two remaining candidate does not withdraw. May's opponent (Andrea Leadsom) pulled out before the postal ballots were sent. If Boris wins big there will be a lot of pressure for the second place guy to withdraw.

If it goes to membership, that will give the new PM just over three months to do what the government could not do in three years. Hello general election!

FIFY.

This has been the desire of many Tories for a while now. The majority of the country does not want it, but they would be delighted at a hard border and a crash out.

Kdogg I am curious as to how this could lead to a new general election. Are any of these right, and/or are there other ways?

1. New PM calls for it (obviously won’t happen)
2. DUP pulls out of the coalition government, triggering a dissolution of the government.
3. An immediate no confidence vote against the PM.

And even then — if there is not someone to ask for an extension, it seems this all goes off the cliff October 31. A general election, without a coupled request to extend, is about the same as a prorogue of Parliament, no?

I appreciate your (and other) advanced knowledge on these subjects. And good luck over there.


Meanwhile, Javid just eliminated.

[Kdogg]

Any idea what DUP thinks of Boris? They do not have a say in this process AFAIK but they could yank the rug out as soon as a PM is named, right? DUP has been confusing to me but I cannot imagine that they are in favor of a no-deal Brexit.

FIFY.

This has been the desire of many Tories for a while now. The majority of the country does not want it, but they would be delighted at a hard border and a crash out.

Any idea what DUP thinks of Boris? They do not have a say in this process AFAIK but they could yank the rug out as soon as a PM is named, right? DUP has been confusing to me but I cannot imagine that they are in favor of a no-deal Brexit.

In the past they've had a warm relationship with him but that was mayor and MP Johnson. I would hope they would be at least slightly concerned with a PM Johnson. Boris is English first and British second. The DUP would have to renew their pact with any new PM so they still hold power. Do I think Boris would throw Northern Ireland under the bus? No. Would I be surprised if he did? Not really but that would lead to breakup of the pact. The DUP just wants to be treated the same so given the binary choice of backstop or No Deal, they will take No Deal. Apparently they don't know about the New IRA and have forgotten the old IRA and the Unionists.

FIFY.

This has been the desire of many Tories for a while now. The majority of the country does not want it, but they would be delighted at a hard border and a crash out.

Maybe I'm the delusional one now but I can not see No Deal happening. It's just not the British thing to do. Yes all signs point to it as the likely outcome. Yes the majority of the ruling Tories are for it although the majority of the country is not. Yes every PM candidate says it's still on the table but I think that's a hollow threat. Supposedly Churchill said; "You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else." I'm hoping that applies to the UK.

[Kdogg]

Kdogg I am curious as to how this could lead to a new general election. Are any of these right, and/or are there other ways?

1. New PM calls for it (obviously won’t happen)
2. DUP pulls out of the coalition government, triggering a dissolution of the government.
3. An immediate no confidence vote against the PM.

And even then — if there is not someone to ask for an extension, it seems this all goes off the cliff October 31. A general election, without a coupled request to extend, is about the same as a prorogue of Parliament, no?

I appreciate your (and other) advanced knowledge on these subjects. And good luck over there.


Meanwhile, Javid just eliminated.

Those are pretty much the ways it could happen. I doubt any would happen as long as No Deal isn't eminent.
Number one is highly unlikely because the Tories would get savaged. Of course there is the chance the Brexit party picks up some of their seats but at best that's a zero sum game for Leavers.
Number two, possible, but only if the PM throws Northern Ireland under the bus.
Number three, highly likely if crashing out is the only options. In the unlikely event of a Parliament suspension, I'm sure they would figure out away to overturn it.

I'm pretty sure the Europeans will extend this dumpster fire as long as needed. It's still in their best interest for a deal or the UK to remain. It's quiet possible a general election doesn't solve Brexit though. If it were held today no party would win a majority. We would be looking at 4 parties each with 20-25% of seats. The Libs, the Greens, SNP, and Labour might have the numbers for a coalition but then again so could the Tories, Brexit and DUP.

When we reduce this mess down the only real issue with May's deal is the backstop. The new PM would be wise to start there and work if way out.

[OldPhiKap]

Those are pretty much the ways it could happen. I doubt any would happen as long as No Deal isn't eminent.
Number one is highly unlikely because the Tories would get savaged. Of course there is the chance the Brexit party picks up some of their seats but at best that's a zero sum game for Leavers.
Number two, possible, but only if the PM throws Northern Ireland under the bus.
Number three, highly likely if crashing out is the only options. In the unlikely event of a Parliament suspension, I'm sure they would figure out away to overturn it.

I'm pretty sure the Europeans will extend this dumpster fire as long as needed. It's still in their best interest for a deal or the UK to remain. It's quiet possible a general election doesn't solve Brexit though. If it were held today no party would win a majority. We would be looking at 4 parties each with 20-25% of seats. The Libs, the Greens, SNP, and Labour might have the numbers for a coalition but then again so could the Tories, Brexit and DUP.

When we reduce this mess down the only real issue with May's deal is the backstop. The new PM would be wise to start there and work if way out.

The DUP baffles me. I understand that they want the power that comes with being in a coalition government, and I get that they don't want to be treated any different than the other three members of the UK. But a crash-out means a hard border, which means that NI will immediately be different than each of the other UK members. It cannot build border structures under the Good Friday Agreement as I understand it, and the technology to do a border without barriers wouldn't be ready until 2030 at the earliest (according to a buried Tory study). So they have an unsolvable mess on their hands -- immediately -- that impacts no one but them. And in the EU, even though they were different countries, there was a certain Irish unity across the whole island regardless of which side of the border you resided.

The recent bombing that killed a journalist in Londonderry is a perfect example of what could happen. The Irish still fight over whether it is "Derry" or "Londonderry" for Pete's sake. The Troubles were not that long ago, and I think a lot of the sentiment beneath them remains. Free trade and movement mollified them.

That's my take at least, and I hope that is not political. Maybe staying in the coalition is the only way the DUP can keep from getting thrown further under the bus. But a no-deal Brexit seems like an awful outcome for Northern Ireland as well as the Republic of Ireland.

[Kdogg]

The DUP baffles me. I understand that they want the power that comes with being in a coalition government, and I get that they don't want to be treated any different than the other three members of the UK. But a crash-out means a hard border, which means that NI will immediately be different than each of the other UK members. It cannot build border structures under the Good Friday Agreement as I understand it, and the technology to do a border without barriers wouldn't be ready until 2030 at the earliest (according to a buried Tory study). So they have an unsolvable mess on their hands -- immediately -- that impacts no one but them.

At their core they are Unionists and will take the good, bad and ugly. Apparently even if it's a lot of ugly. In the event of a crash out they would have the same boarder checks, tariffs, and rules as the UK. Their biggest fear is any variance with the rest of the UK will lead to reunification with Ireland. They use to be the fringe party. Now they find themselves in a position of power because the electorate in Northern Ireland has abandoned the middle . Sinn Féin's not taking their seats so they have no counter weight in Westminster.

Just like I think that No Deal will not happen, I honestly don't think the Irish boarder will ever be closed. I'll go as far as bet a pie to the first 10 people who remind me I made that statement if it happens.

[OldPhiKap]

The last two standing for PM are Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt. (Hunt had 77 votes, Gove had 75. Boris had 160).

Winner to be announced the week of July 22nd unless one withdraws prior.

What it may mean for NI since we were talking about it (per BBC analyst):

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-48690903

[budwom]

As Colin Powell once said, you Brexit you pay for it. Truer words have never been spoken.

[sagegrouse]

At their core they are Unionists and will take the good, bad and ugly. Apparently even if it's a lot of ugly. In the event of a crash out they would have the same boarder checks, tariffs, and rules as the UK. Their biggest fear is any variance with the rest of the UK will lead to reunification with Ireland. They use to be the fringe party. Now they find themselves in a position of power because the electorate in Northern Ireland has abandoned the middle . Sinn Féin's not taking their seats so they have no counter weight in Westminster.

Just like I think that No Deal will not happen, I honestly don't think the Irish boarder will ever be closed. I'll go as far as bet a pie to the first 10 people who remind me I made that statement if it happens.

If the effect of a No-Deal Brexit is to repeal the Good Friday agreement between the UK and the Republic of Ireland, won't there be hell to pay on both sides of the border? Isn't there a high level of integration between NI and Ireland -- much more than before the agreement? Won't a hard border disrupt commuting patterns and separate family and friends? What does Sinn Fein think about renewed borders (I actually don't know)?

And does DUP even care?

[Kdogg]

If the effect of a No-Deal Brexit is to repeal the Good Friday agreement between the UK and the Republic of Ireland, won't there be hell to pay on both sides of the border? Isn't there a high level of integration between NI and Ireland -- much more than before the agreement? Won't a hard border disrupt commuting patterns and separate family and friends? What does Sinn Fein think about renewed borders (I actually don't know)?

And does DUP even care?

You are giving some of these people credit for living in a real and rational world. Consequences Shonsequences.

You are right on your points though. The reality is it would be near impossible to close the boarder now. It would be like trying to put a barrier between the Carolinas. There are literally roads that swing between the two now.

Sinn Fein is happy to sit on the sidelines, drink a Guinness and hope political chaos ensues. If N Ireland becomes the sacrificial lamb in Brexit, it’s a win for them.

Not that long ago the DUP were the fringe party in Northern Ireland. It’s the newer leader that turned them around. They are committed Unionists so that’s priority one, two and three. At a certain it could become a cutting the nose to spite the face situation. Apparently they are OK with that.

[OldPhiKap]

At a certain it could become a cutting the nose to spite the face situation. Apparently they are OK with that.

Seems to be a lot of that going around . . . .

Oh, and there’s this:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-johnsons-home

[sagegrouse]

Seems to be a lot of that going around . . . .

Oh, and there’s this:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-johnsons-home

Our politics is so much less interesting. I s'pose that's good!

[OldPhiKap]

“Yes, Minister” explained Brexit 30 years ago:

https://www.facebook.com/forgottenir...54&v=e&sfns=mo