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  1. #741
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    Nov 2007
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    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Hold on tight, kids, this may be bumpy.
    This development, along with watching HBO's Year After Year, (Emma Thompson is superb) is a tad disconcerting to some (like moi) Hold on tight indeed, the master quipster/rogue/critic now gets to run things and find out how easy it all is.

    Not as easy as selecting something from the pudding trolley.

  2. #742
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    Sep 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    the pudding trolley.
    Is that like a taco truck?

  3. #743
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    On a more serious note -- 99 days until the Brexit deadline. Boris' bet is that if he plays chicken with the EU, the EU will blink to avoid a no-deal. Who knows what will happen, but for the EU to adopt new positions they must be unanimous (something like 27 countries IIRC). Lots of parts to try to move and settle in a very short period of time. And the Tories only hang on by the skin of the DUP's teeth as is.

  4. #744
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    On a more serious note -- 99 days until the Brexit deadline. Boris' bet is that if he plays chicken with the EU, the EU will blink to avoid a no-deal. Who knows what will happen, but for the EU to adopt new positions they must be unanimous (something like 27 countries IIRC).
    If I am the EU and I want to remain relevant, no way do I cut a good deal with Britain. Doing so would encourage other nations to leave the union. Playing hardball may cause a little bit of economic pain to EU countries (it won't be anywhere close to the pain Britain will feel cut off from free trade with the entirety of Europe), but it may be the only way to ensure the long-term viability of the union.

    -Jason "get ready to book a trip to London this Christmas, the pound is going to plunge" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  5. #745
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    If I am the EU and I want to remain relevant, no way do I cut a good deal with Britain. Doing so would encourage other nations to leave the union. Playing hardball may cause a little bit of economic pain to EU countries (it won't be anywhere close to the pain Britain will feel cut off from free trade with the entirety of Europe), but it may be the only way to ensure the long-term viability of the union.

    -Jason "get ready to book a trip to London this Christmas, the pound is going to plunge" Evans
    Many of my british friends in the financial community who are expatriated in other European countries have been aggressively seeking citizenship in their resident nations. I think the writing is on the wall about which side of the channel is going to win out.

  6. #746
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    Sep 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    If I am the EU and I want to remain relevant, no way do I cut a good deal with Britain. Doing so would encourage other nations to leave the union. Playing hardball may cause a little bit of economic pain to EU countries (it won't be anywhere close to the pain Britain will feel cut off from free trade with the entirety of Europe), but it may be the only way to ensure the long-term viability of the union.

    -Jason "get ready to book a trip to London this Christmas, the pound is going to plunge" Evans
    Agreed. And I think at this point there are several nations that would even cut their own nose off to spite the UK, metaphorically speaking. "Sods to them."

    Pound was at a two-year low this morning as I was driving in to the office, and I agree that further down would be my bet.

    Quote Originally Posted by gus View Post
    Many of my british friends in the financial community who are expatriated in other European countries have been aggressively seeking citizenship in their resident nations. I think the writing is on the wall about which side of the channel is going to win out.
    Irish passport applications are also way up, one can claim it if they are within a certain generational degree from native Irish.

  7. #747
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    Nov 2007
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    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Is that like a taco truck?
    Indoor use only! But you don't have to wait, pudding pretty much on demand.

  8. #748
    Dear Lord, it has come to this.

    Need to look up the shortest term for a PM.

    On a serious note the only point Boris needs to negotiate is the Irish backstop. The rest of May’s Deal isn’t great but it’s fair. Most ministers recognized that long ago. I would think the EU would be flexible on this issue if the Brits can provide reasonable/realistic options. More likely option is a new general election and eternal extensions.

  9. #749
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    Dear Lord, it has come to this.

    Need to look up the shortest term for a PM.

    On a serious note the only point Boris needs to negotiate is the Irish backstop. The rest of May’s Deal isn’t great but it’s fair. Most ministers recognized that long ago. I would think the EU would be flexible on this issue if the Brits can provide reasonable/realistic options. More likely option is a new general election and eternal extensions.
    Ask and ye shall receive. Per Wikipedia:

    ... the Prime Minister with the total shortest period in office was George Canning, whose sole term lasted 119 days from 12 April 1827 until his death on 8 August 1827.
    There are exceptions of three-four days for interim picks or PM's who could find no one to serve with them. In other words, the exceptions prove the rule:
    The shortest period in office is more confused, depending on the criteria. The shortest ever period was only three days, a record held by Lord Bath, from 10 February to 12 February 1746, who was asked to form a government but was unable to find more than one person who would agree to serve in his cabinet. A satirist of the time wrote: "the minister to the astonishment of all wise men never transacted one rash thing; and, what is more marvellous, left as much money in the Treasury as he found in it." James Waldegrave, 2nd Earl Waldegrave was a prime minister for four days, from 8 June to 12 June 1757. However, since neither of these Earls actually formed an effective government, there are other contenders for the record of shortest term of office among those who actually governed the country.

    In November 1834, the Duke of Wellington declined to become Prime Minister in favour of Sir Robert Peel but formed a ’caretaker’ administration for 25 days (17 November 1834 – 9 December 1834) while Peel returned from Europe. However, as a caretaker administration this might not necessarily be considered a term of office in its own right.

    Therefore, of those with clear and effective terms, the Prime Minister with the shortest single one was Lord Rockingham, whose second term lasted 96 days from 27 March 1782 until his death on 1 July 1782. However, combined with his first term (13 July 1765 – 30 July 1766) his total time in office was 1 year and 113 days, which exceeds the total periods of several other Prime Ministers. (The Duke of Wellington had also served as Prime Minister between 1828 and 1830.)
    By the way, Wikipedia warns that "This article has multiple issues."
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  10. #750
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    Sep 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    On a serious note the only point Boris needs to negotiate is the Irish backstop. The rest of May’s Deal isn’t great but it’s fair. Most ministers recognized that long ago. I would think the EU would be flexible on this issue if the Brits can provide reasonable/realistic options. More likely option is a new general election and eternal extensions.
    Boris has said that he will not ask for an extension under any circumstance IIRC. Not sure if that is a bluff or not, but his position seems to be a game of chicken where he is willing to wreck instead of swerve.

    Maybe he gets some small concession on the Backstop and declares victory. That's my hunch.

    What does everyone think the real odds of a no-deal crash-out are? 40%?

  11. #751
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    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    A classic case of the dog catching the car.

  12. #752
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    What does everyone think the real odds of a no-deal crash-out are? 40%?
    Honestly, I think it’s zero percent but what do I know in this new world order. It serves nobody on either side of the Channel. I will have a better feel after Boris’ European tour next week and the new docket of cabinet ministers. The most pragmatic ones (Hammond and Stewart) probably won’t be around. For what it’s worth, Goldman Sachs increased there odds from 15% to 20%.

  13. #753
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    Feb 2007
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    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Boris contradicted Michael Gove and said there was a million to one against no-deal. My takeaway is that no-deal is virtually certain.

    20190727_cuk400.jpg

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Who’s gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

  14. #754
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    Sep 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    Boris contradicted Michael Gove and said there was a million to one against no-deal. My takeaway is that no-deal is virtually certain.

    20190727_cuk400.jpg
    The more I learn of Boris' "plan," the more I tend to agree. As best I can tell, Boris wants to do two main things that won't work:

    1. Boris wants to take the backstop out of the Brexit agreement, and put in as part of the trade deal to be negotiated between the UK and EU after Brexit. This has already been rejected once by the EU and it ignores the practical reality -- there will have to be some border mechanism the day Brexit takes effect.

    2. Boris wants to hold the payment of the "divorce monies" to the EU until a trade deal is reached. There is no way the EU should ever agree to give up that leverage. If Boris doesn't pay when the UK leaves, they can just sue for it.

    Where is the wiggle room? Maybe shave some of the divorce payment off in order to have an orderly deal?

  15. #755
    The thing about Boris is that 1) he is malleable and 2) he wants to please people. Regardless of his rhetoric, nothing he says is set in stone. That’s why it’s less of concern for me. I believe he will bang the No Deal drum and then let Parliament prevent it. By my informal count between Labour, the Libs, SNP, the Greens and Remain Tories they will have the numbers to stop no deal somehow. It might require finding another 300 year old precedent though.

  16. #756
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Bo is going around telling constituents (e.g. Welsh farmers) he'll get them a better deal...not exactly sure how he does that...I agree (^), he might have to let Parliament save him from himself at some point.

  17. #757
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    The thing about Boris is that 1) he is malleable and 2) he wants to please people. Regardless of his rhetoric, nothing he says is set in stone. That’s why it’s less of concern for me. I believe he will bang the No Deal drum and then let Parliament prevent it. By my informal count between Labour, the Libs, SNP, the Greens and Remain Tories they will have the numbers to stop no deal somehow. It might require finding another 300 year old precedent though.
    But what happens when Parliament blocks no-deal Brexit; the EU says (as it has) that the deal on offer is basically the only deal possible; and Parliament still cannot get that deal approved?

    The UK simply wants to have its cake and eat it too. They also want unicorns at the Irish border apparently, because they are pushing for something that is not technologically feasible until 2030 or so per an internal Tory study.

    Any extension from the EU would have to be unanimous. Macron wants to move on, UK be damned. Many other countries have their own problems and just want this over so they can move on to more pressing internal matters. A further extension without significant signs of a deal actually being close is far from certain — from either side of the Channel.
    Last edited by OldPhiKap; 07-30-2019 at 07:33 AM.

  18. #758
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    But what happens when Parliament blocks no-deal Brexit; the EU says (as it has) that the deal on offer is basically the only deal possible; and Parliament still cannot get that deal approved?

    The UK simply wants to have its cake and eat it too. They also want unicorns at the Irish border apparently, because they are pushing for something that is not technologically feasible until 2030 or so per an internal Tory study.

    Any extension from the EU would have to be unanimous. Macron wants to move on, UK be damned. Many other countries have their own problems and just want this over so they can move on to more pressing internal matters. A further extension without significant signs of a deal actually being close is far from certain — from either side of the Channel.
    So, what will happen?

    1. Parliament won't let No Deal happen
    2. A new deal seems impossible
    3. EU won't approve another extension




    I feel like the UK needs another people's vote: Stay, leave with no deal, leave with the current approved deal (that parliament has rejected)

    -Jason "what is the record for shortest term as PM, cause I feel like Boris may not last much beyond the end of October" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  19. #759
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    Sep 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post

    -Jason "what is the record for shortest term as PM, cause I feel like Boris may not last much beyond the end of October" Evans
    116 days (George Canning, 1827)

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...ngth_of_tenure

  20. #760
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post

    I feel like the UK needs another people's vote: Stay, leave with no deal, leave with the current approved deal (that parliament has rejected)

    -Jason "what is the record for shortest term as PM, cause I feel like Boris may not last much beyond the end of October" Evans
    Problem is it can’t be boiled down to simple choices. Three options splits the vote where none would have a majority. You would need at least two votes. Stay / Leave then if Leave wins, This Deal or No Deal.

    I think this plays out by Parliament forcing Boris to go to the EU to extend the deadline. The EU will do it. With the exception of the French, no one hates the British and the EU prefers having a good relationship with the UK. If Boris was serious about leaving without a deal he would call elections now because he will never be more popular. This could lead to a proxy Peoples Vote were it’s all about Brexit. Boris might play the fool but he’s not one so I would be shocked if he did it.
    Last edited by Kdogg; 07-30-2019 at 04:09 PM.

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