I dunno. 50% isn't real convincing to me. And y'all know what I think about polls.
I'd be a terrible pollster. I would not accept 'undecided's and 'not sure's. I would be cussing at them over the phone "Make a #@*%ing decision!".
I suspect there is a 35% base of hard-liners. Eerily familiar.
I would HOPE that no one wants to see a hard border. It’s already a balancing act right now. These pols are of an age that should remember the bombings (and near bombings) of the 80’s and 90’s. I spent a good part of my youth worrying about family working in Central London. I can not imagine anyone wants to see that again.
Well, this is going smoothly.
You ain’t scene nothing yet.
It has always been in the EU’s best interest to punish the UK. The UK is already on the hook for payments for decades. That was their only chip and they cashed that in too early. The UK’s decisions will eventually make a great case study on how not to negotiate.
If Italy (which is currently run by a nationalist/populist gov't) also leaves the EU, then that might change negotiating positions.
"Italexit" can't be ruled out:
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...g-latest-polls
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...oc-has-failed/
As usual, someone in UK's position would love to have another defector. It's lonely being the only one. If there are two defectors, the equation changes.
Not much. My best friend did a 2-week tour of Italy this year and his impression is that the country is pretty poor, especially the south. Very tourist driven.
England probably thought they had a safety valve with the U.S. Heh.
To those with more knowledge of foreign affairs, how does the breakup of economic alliances affect military alliances? I suppose the rest of Europe would come to England's aid in an all-out attack, but that doesn't seem to be the way things happen nowadays. I can't imagine how a European family who lost someone in Iraq/Afghanistan feels to now be told they are not an ally. I started thinking about this because I just watched "A War", a Danish film that was quite powerful. They used recently returned soldiers for many of the parts instead of actors.
I believe that it merely refers to an attack by an outside/external party. Don't think it has to be state-sponsored, because NATO went after the Taliban in Afghanistan.
I guess that a cyber attack could count. I am pretty sure it is loosely-defined for a purpose.
(Not sure I can say too much more without hitting political no-no's but I think this is fine -- apologies if not).
Quick edit to add: some reading on the issue of how to define cyber-attacks by NATO from a few years ago: https://www.realclearworld.com/artic...ar_110755.html
I am sure there is much more out there for those who want to look, not saying this is definitive.
There's a greater chance of Italy (and Greece for that matter) being kicked out than choosing to leave. Neither is likely. There is a tighter bond there than the UK has ever had. The UK never bought in 100% to the Europe Project. Maybe if de Gaulle didn't block the UK joining the Common Market fifty years ago things would be different.
I say this as a realist: If the beacons of Gondor are lite, the Europeans will come to each others aid.
Couldn't disagree more. At some point, the EU loses legitimacy if its members keep leaving. I wouldn't even know how it could refer to itself as the European Union if it's missing Britain and Italy, and maybe the dam breaks after that. Luckily for the EU, I agree with KDogg that the Italians will pounds their fists and complain about Brussels without ever seriously coming close to leaving. At least for now, Italians polled are roughly 2 to 1 against having a referendum on Italexit.
One may also have heard that Merkel is losing power in Germany, which will have implications for Europe overall
https://www.economist.com/leaders/20...-europe-is-too
If nationalism / populism keeps rising in Europe, it's tough to see how the EU will survive long-term.
I don't think that England was ever giving up the Pound Sterling, so it was always a strained fit.
Italy needs the common currency more than the common currency needs Italy, agreed. While Italy may not like the austerity measures that Germany and France would like to impose, the Lira was not what anyone would call a stable or desired currency. And free borders = easy tourism, which is the lifeblood of Italy's economy I think.
When you look at the history of Europe, it's kinda amazing that there has been peace in western Europe for 70 years. The U.S. has a lot to do with that. Or maybe I should say had. Eastern Europe, while not completely quiet, has also been relatively peaceful. Think about even a hundred years ago, what a change similar to the fall of communism would have done to those countries.