Summer of 2016: NBA Offseason Thread

[CDu]

With the 2016 NBA Finals now complete, the second season begins. The Offseason (draft and free agency) provide teams a chance to change their fortunes. For the most part, it is all movement around the margins. But every so often something big happens. This offseason, some of the big storylines will be:

1. What does Kevin Durant do? Does he stick it out in OKC for one year (with option)? Does he sign a short-term deal with the Warriors? Does he go home and sign a max deal to play with John Wall and Brad Beal in Washington? The decision by Durant will likely have major implications on who wins the title next year.

2. What does LeBron do? The obvious answer here is "stay home". Yes, he won a title and fulfilled his promise to Cleveland. Does he decide that he's done enough for the city and go elsewhere as a "screw you" to Dan Gilbert? Highly doubtful. I think he's locked in to stay home at this point, and he knows he has a team good enough to win for a few more years.

3. What does Golden State do? They have two pending restricted free agents in Barnes and Ezeli. Both were (perhaps still are?) set to make substantial raises this summer. However, both got glaringly exposed for their limitations in this series. If the Warriors let them both walk, they will have enough money to legitimately pursue Durant. If they retain either player by matching another team's offer, it limits what they can do. And signing either guy will make it that much harder on them financially when their stars come up for new deals. I suspect they let both guys walk. I think Barnes' production could be replaced by a ring-chasing wing willing to take the minimum (a la Richard Jefferson this year for the Cavs), and Ezeli played such a small role that his loss won't be noticed.

4. Can any other teams make the jump? Here's where Durant's decision is interesting. If he stays in OKC, the Thunder remain a viable threat for a title (they actually looked better against the Warriors than the Cavs did minus one game). If he goes to Washington, that team (with Wall, Beal, Porter, and Gortat) becomes an interesting challenger for the Cavs. If he goes to Golden State the Warriors obviously become prohibitive favorites again. Outside of Washington, I can't see another team threatening the top 3 (Cleveland, Golden State, OKC). The Clippers can't shoot enough and aren't versatile enough defensively, the Spurs are just too old at key spots (even without Duncan), don't have enough depth of talent. The Raptors weren't good enough before, and they may lose DeRozan and Biyombo.

Other free agents of note after Durant include DeRozan, Dwight Howard, Al Horford, Hassan Whiteside and Mike Conley. There are a bunch of others, but those are the major names.

[NashvilleDevil]

I watched First Take for the joy of seeing Skip tie himself in knots to explain how LeBron wasn't the hero last night but Kyrie. Stephen A said that he is hearing LeBron to the Lakers. Now SAS was right about LeBron to Cleveland so it will be interesting to see if this pans out. I would think Kyrie has shown he can be a good 2nd to LeBron. I don't see anyone currently on the Lakers who would be able to do that. Plus LeBron would not want to move west because of the grind in that division. In Cleveland he can coast a bit and still have the best record in the east.

[luburch]

With the 2016 NBA Finals now complete, the second season begins. The Offseason (draft and free agency) provide teams a chance to change their fortunes. For the most part, it is all movement around the margins. But every so often something big happens. This offseason, some of the big storylines will be:

1. What does Kevin Durant do? Does he stick it out in OKC for one year (with option)? Does he sign a short-term deal with the Warriors? Does he go home and sign a max deal to play with John Wall and Brad Beal in Washington? The decision by Durant will likely have major implications on who wins the title next year.

2. What does LeBron do? The obvious answer here is "stay home". Yes, he won a title and fulfilled his promise to Cleveland. Does he decide that he's done enough for the city and go elsewhere as a "screw you" to Dan Gilbert? Highly doubtful. I think he's locked in to stay home at this point, and he knows he has a team good enough to win for a few more years.

3. What does Golden State do? They have two pending restricted free agents in Barnes and Ezeli. Both were (perhaps still are?) set to make substantial raises this summer. However, both got glaringly exposed for their limitations in this series. If the Warriors let them both walk, they will have enough money to legitimately pursue Durant. If they retain either player by matching another team's offer, it limits what they can do. And signing either guy will make it that much harder on them financially when their stars come up for new deals. I suspect they let both guys walk. I think Barnes' production could be replaced by a ring-chasing wing willing to take the minimum (a la Richard Jefferson this year for the Cavs), and Ezeli played such a small role that his loss won't be noticed.

4. Can any other teams make the jump? Here's where Durant's decision is interesting. If he stays in OKC, the Thunder remain a viable threat for a title (they actually looked better against the Warriors than the Cavs did minus one game). If he goes to Washington, that team (with Wall, Beal, Porter, and Gortat) becomes an interesting challenger for the Cavs. If he goes to Golden State the Warriors obviously become prohibitive favorites again. Outside of Washington, I can't see another team threatening the top 3 (Cleveland, Golden State, OKC). The Clippers can't shoot enough and aren't versatile enough defensively, the Spurs are just too old at key spots (even without Duncan), don't have enough depth of talent. The Raptors weren't good enough before, and they may lose DeRozan and Biyombo.

Other free agents of note after Durant include DeRozan, Dwight Howard, Al Horford, Hassan Whiteside and Mike Conley. There are a bunch of others, but those are the major names.

I think Durant re-ups for two years with the ability to opt-out next summer. It'sin his best financial interest and he now knows the Thunder can play with the Warriors.

I would be absolutely shocked if LeBron left Cleveland. I think he is going to retire as a Cav. I just saw where The Veritcal is reporting that his is likely going to skip the Olympics.

I think the Warriors should let Barnes and Ezeli walk. Both can be easily replaced and they may want to make a few more minor tweaks to the roster. Losing makes this a little easier.

As a Pacers fan I really want Conley to come home and play alongside Paul George and Myles Turner. I think he'd be a great fit and you could push George Hill to the two and bring Ellis off the bench or vice versa. At the start of the season there was talk of the Clippers blowing up their roster if they didn't make any progress this seeason. That talk has cooled and they're still a good team. They're just a few pieces away from being true contenders.

One of my main questions is does Duncan retire and do the Spurs take a step back?

[superdave]

Here are my thoughts -

Durant - I would expect he re-ups for 2-3 years with opt outs after each season. If he really wants a ring now, then GSW is the best target. But would he be the Kevin Love to the Splash Brothers? The third wheel? If he really wants to go home to the Bullets, is that a worse situation than OKC? Probably. Not sure Gortat is the player he was a few years ago. The Thunder were so close this year. I think he re-ups and I think Steven Adams may have enough growth to get them to to the Finals in the next two years as the third guy.

Lebron - I couldnt imagine he moves. He doesnt need to be in LA to sell shoes or do SpaceJam 6. What is more interesting to me is what becomes of Kevin Love. Check out this quote -

"This is a strange series for me," Love told ESPN.com between Games 5 and 6. "I mostly just run to the corners and get out of the way. But I'm going to try to do what I can -- contest shots, get up on the pick-and-roll, get deflections." http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2016...ubt-rise-title

I would bet, at a minimum, Love's agent kicks the tires with Boston and LA. I think he stays put, but I bet he's thinking about it.


GSW - My guess is someone over-pays for Barnes. Wouldnt that be the Michael Jordaniest move of all time to give Barnes a max deal to come to CLT and hope GSW doesnt match? GSW should offer Barnes a fair deal, but he's replaceable and everyone knows it. Barnes could get paid next year once Igoudala's deal goes away. If he signs a short-term deal, he might be able to make more in a year or two if he wants to stay in town.


Draft - I think any draft-related trades could be interesting. The Lakers, Sixers and Celtics all could make big moves and have the pieces to do it.

With the 2016 NBA Finals now complete, the second season begins. The Offseason (draft and free agency) provide teams a chance to change their fortunes. For the most part, it is all movement around the margins. But every so often something big happens. This offseason, some of the big storylines will be:

1. What does Kevin Durant do? Does he stick it out in OKC for one year (with option)? Does he sign a short-term deal with the Warriors? Does he go home and sign a max deal to play with John Wall and Brad Beal in Washington? The decision by Durant will likely have major implications on who wins the title next year.

2. What does LeBron do? The obvious answer here is "stay home". Yes, he won a title and fulfilled his promise to Cleveland. Does he decide that he's done enough for the city and go elsewhere as a "screw you" to Dan Gilbert? Highly doubtful. I think he's locked in to stay home at this point, and he knows he has a team good enough to win for a few more years.

3. What does Golden State do? They have two pending restricted free agents in Barnes and Ezeli. Both were (perhaps still are?) set to make substantial raises this summer. However, both got glaringly exposed for their limitations in this series. If the Warriors let them both walk, they will have enough money to legitimately pursue Durant. If they retain either player by matching another team's offer, it limits what they can do. And signing either guy will make it that much harder on them financially when their stars come up for new deals. I suspect they let both guys walk. I think Barnes' production could be replaced by a ring-chasing wing willing to take the minimum (a la Richard Jefferson this year for the Cavs), and Ezeli played such a small role that his loss won't be noticed.

4. Can any other teams make the jump? Here's where Durant's decision is interesting. If he stays in OKC, the Thunder remain a viable threat for a title (they actually looked better against the Warriors than the Cavs did minus one game). If he goes to Washington, that team (with Wall, Beal, Porter, and Gortat) becomes an interesting challenger for the Cavs. If he goes to Golden State the Warriors obviously become prohibitive favorites again. Outside of Washington, I can't see another team threatening the top 3 (Cleveland, Golden State, OKC). The Clippers can't shoot enough and aren't versatile enough defensively, the Spurs are just too old at key spots (even without Duncan), don't have enough depth of talent. The Raptors weren't good enough before, and they may lose DeRozan and Biyombo.

Other free agents of note after Durant include DeRozan, Dwight Howard, Al Horford, Hassan Whiteside and Mike Conley. There are a bunch of others, but those are the major names.

[CDu]

I would bet, at a minimum, Love's agent kicks the tires with Boston and LA. I think he stays put, but I bet he's thinking about it.

Love signed a 5-year deal last summer, so he doesn't really have the option to leave on his own. Now, Cleveland may decide that he's expendable via trade, but that's the only way Love goes elsewhere. Maybe Love tries to force Cleveland's hand, but he doesn't exactly have the most leverage to do it. And if he goes anywhere else, he's not likely to sniff a title.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Love signed a 5-year deal last summer, so he doesn't really have the option to leave on his own. Now, Cleveland may decide that he's expendable via trade, but that's the only way Love goes elsewhere. Maybe Love tries to force Cleveland's hand, but he doesn't exactly have the most leverage to do it. And if he goes anywhere else, he's not likely to sniff a title.

I'm curious how that impacts players once they have a title. Is it, "I want another one!" or do they focus on over variables, like "I want to be the man!" or "I want more money!" Cus if it's the former, Love isn't going anywhere. If it's the latter, he may force the Cavs to trade him.

Regardless, like you said, I don't think Love is in any position to negotiate or demand anything. He is a far third-banana on the National Champions (which is really good, but still third).

[kAzE]

I'm curious how that impacts players once they have a title. Is it, "I want another one!" or do they focus on over variables, like "I want to be the man!" or "I want more money!" Cus if it's the former, Love isn't going anywhere. If it's the latter, he may force the Cavs to trade him.

Regardless, like you said, I don't think Love is in any position to negotiate or demand anything. He is a far third-banana on the National Champions (which is really good, but still third).

I think Love gets a bit of a bad rap because of his bad matchup specifically with the Warriors. If the Cavs are playing the OKC Thunder in the finals, Love isn't under nearly as big of a microscope if he's guarding Serge Ibaka or Steven Adams rather than the Warrior's small ball lineup. There's no getting around his liability in the pick and roll, but every player has flaws. Good basketball is all about finding solutions to mask those types of flaws depending on the match up.

Personally, I think they should trade him. Not because he doesn't fit necessarily with the team overall, but rather because LeBron is a better power forward. Love is superfluous to their team, and they have holes in other areas. Specifically, they need help on the wing. Richard Jefferson looks like he's retiring. They need a high energy guy who can compete at a high level with the league's best, guard the Kevin Durants and Kawhi Leonards of the world, and be at least a spot up shooter on offense. A 3 and D guy. An athletic/mobile big who can protect the rim wouldn't hurt, either.

[superdave]

Love signed a 5-year deal last summer, so he doesn't really have the option to leave on his own. Now, Cleveland may decide that he's expendable via trade, but that's the only way Love goes elsewhere. Maybe Love tries to force Cleveland's hand, but he doesn't exactly have the most leverage to do it. And if he goes anywhere else, he's not likely to sniff a title.

Yes, Love could request a trade. That would be the most likely way he leaves town. Not Cleveland believes they would get 100% value for Love right now.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

LeBron has fulfilled his mission. I think for the first time in his career, he will do what HE wants. Will be interesting to see.

[NSDukeFan]

With the 2016 NBA Finals now complete, the second season begins. The Offseason (draft and free agency) provide teams a chance to change their fortunes. For the most part, it is all movement around the margins. But every so often something big happens. This offseason, some of the big storylines will be:

1. What does Kevin Durant do? Does he stick it out in OKC for one year (with option)? Does he sign a short-term deal with the Warriors? Does he go home and sign a max deal to play with John Wall and Brad Beal in Washington? The decision by Durant will likely have major implications on who wins the title next year.

2. What does LeBron do? The obvious answer here is "stay home". Yes, he won a title and fulfilled his promise to Cleveland. Does he decide that he's done enough for the city and go elsewhere as a "screw you" to Dan Gilbert? Highly doubtful. I think he's locked in to stay home at this point, and he knows he has a team good enough to win for a few more years.

3. What does Golden State do? They have two pending restricted free agents in Barnes and Ezeli. Both were (perhaps still are?) set to make substantial raises this summer. However, both got glaringly exposed for their limitations in this series. If the Warriors let them both walk, they will have enough money to legitimately pursue Durant. If they retain either player by matching another team's offer, it limits what they can do. And signing either guy will make it that much harder on them financially when their stars come up for new deals. I suspect they let both guys walk. I think Barnes' production could be replaced by a ring-chasing wing willing to take the minimum (a la Richard Jefferson this year for the Cavs), and Ezeli played such a small role that his loss won't be noticed.

4. Can any other teams make the jump? Here's where Durant's decision is interesting. If he stays in OKC, the Thunder remain a viable threat for a title (they actually looked better against the Warriors than the Cavs did minus one game). If he goes to Washington, that team (with Wall, Beal, Porter, and Gortat) becomes an interesting challenger for the Cavs. If he goes to Golden State the Warriors obviously become prohibitive favorites again. Outside of Washington, I can't see another team threatening the top 3 (Cleveland, Golden State, OKC). The Clippers can't shoot enough and aren't versatile enough defensively, the Spurs are just too old at key spots (even without Duncan), don't have enough depth of talent. The Raptors weren't good enough before, and they may lose DeRozan and Biyombo.

Other free agents of note after Durant include DeRozan, Dwight Howard, Al Horford, Hassan Whiteside and Mike Conley. There are a bunch of others, but those are the major names.

Great breakdown, but I think you are way too quick to dismiss the 67 win team who lost to the team who lost to the team who lost to the champs. It will be interesting to see what Duncan does and how Aldridge do now that he is in his second year with the Spurs and has a better understanding of what it takes? Can Kawhi stay in the top 5 players in the league? Can they find another piece to get better? I am a Duncan and Popovich fan, so am probably biased, but they haven't been the best team to bet against the last 15 years and just had their best regular season.

[gurufrisbee]

Durant is very interesting. Selfishly, I hope he leaves OKC. Washington and GS are the two big names I hear a lot related to him, but I wonder if there are others out there. It's so rare to see guys of his level on the FA market, I would think a lot of folks would look to make room for him.

Lebron is also very interesting since he has now won in Cleveland. I'm thinking there are three possibilities now.

A) Lebron chills in Cleveland knowing they can contend still and he is the hero there

B) Lakers. It's the storied franchise where he can now come and be the man there and try to re build that franchise to championship level. And you would think that with Lebron and the young core of Randle, Russell, and whoever the #2 pick is this year they could concievably build up to that kind of level with another couple nice moves and in a couple years.

C) Lebron's boys. Not sure where, but the idea that Lebron could get together with his favorite guys in Wade and Melo and Paul and obviously James Jones and they could just make their own stars united team. I think we've essentially seen this idea when Kobe and Shaq brough Payton and Mailman to LA (although I don't think there was any kind of love between them all) or even sort of Barkley, Pippen, and Olajuwon in Houston.

[Trey21]

LeBron has fulfilled his mission. I think for the first time in his career, he will do what HE wants. Will be interesting to see.

Uhhhhhh Miami?

[rocketeli]

It will be interesting to see what happens with He who will not be etc. I can see the Warriors deciding they want to keep a team that won 73 games as intact as possible and way over paying for a non-clutch 10 and 6 guy or they might (fairly or unfairly) mentally make him the fall guy for not winning the NBA championship and slough him off.

[Edouble]

It will be interesting to see what happens with He who will not be etc. I can see the Warriors deciding they want to keep a team that won 73 games as intact as possible and way over paying for a non-clutch 10 and 6 guy or they might (fairly or unfairly) mentally make him the fall guy for not winning the NBA championship and slough him off.

I don't think that will happen. If you don't win the title, every player gets evaluated. I doubt the Golden State front office doesn't realize that Barnes did not step up when he was most needed.

Also, Iguodala isn't getting any younger. The Warriors could use another defensive stopper that they can put on LeBron if they face the Cavs in the Finals again next year. Barnes is probably never gonna be that kind of defender.

[Karl Beem]

Uhhhhhh Miami?

Uhhhhhh No.

[luburch]

Dirk opted out of his contract with the Mavericks and I saw some rumors that the Warriors are interested. Not sure that's the best fit for him or the Warriors, but it would be interesting.

[CDu]

Dirk opted out of his contract with the Mavericks and I saw some rumors that the Warriors are interested. Not sure that's the best fit for him or the Warriors, but it would be interesting.

I was under the impression that he would opt out but had no plans of leaving Dallas.

[BD80]

I was under the impression that he would opt out but had no plans of leaving Dallas.

He's German. He's probably planning on bombing Pearl Harbor.

[TKG]

He's German. He's probably planning on bombing Pearl Harbor.

You're rolling....

[ChillinDuke]

I hear a lot of people talking about Durant to GSW.

Does the NBA have an antitrust mechanism? If so, I'd imagine we're pretty close to using it with that prospective team.

- Chillin