2016 NBA Playoffs

[Troublemaker]

Starts tomorrow.

Is anyone picking a different Finals from GSW-Cle?

The Warriors and Cavs are each heavily favored by oddsmakers to reach the Finals again. For different reasons, though. GSW is a 73-win all-time great powerhouse, and while the Cavs have played uninspired this season, no team in the East is regarded as being close in talent. If any of the Spurs, Thunder, or Clippers were in the East, I'd probably pick them to make the Finals. I still kind of want to pick against Cleveland anyway, but I don't know which East team I'd settle on to pull the upset.

What are your 1st-round upsets, if any?

I like the 6-seed Hornets to beat the 3-seed Heat, so a minor upset. Do North Carolinian Dukies root for the Hornets, or is there just too much UNC-ness to that franchise? Especially since Gerald now plays for Portland.

[luburch]

I love the NBA playoffs, it's the best basketball of the year. I do wish the first two rounds were best of 5 instead of 7 though.

I like all chalk in the first round for the West. I think the Celtics/Hawks series could go either way. Probably ends in 7 games. I think the Pacers may scare the Raptors, but ultimately the Raptors get through.

I think the Warriors take down the Clippers in 6 and the Thunder take down the Spurs in 7. Warriors over Thunder in 6.

I think the Cavs beat the Hawks/Celtics winner in 6 and the Heat beat the Raptors in 6. Cavs over Heat in 6.

Warriors over Cavs in 6.

Should be a really fun two months!

Side note: I would love for the Warriors to sweep every series. Would be amazing to see, just very unlikely to happen.

[wilson]

Starts tomorrow.

Is anyone picking a different Finals from GSW-Cle?

The Warriors and Cavs are each heavily favored by oddsmakers to reach the Finals again. For different reasons, though. GSW is a 73-win all-time great powerhouse, and while the Cavs have played uninspired this season, no team in the East is regarded as being close in talent. If any of the Spurs, Thunder, or Clippers were in the East, I'd probably pick them to make the Finals. I still kind of want to pick against Cleveland anyway, but I don't know which East team I'd settle on to pull the upset.

What are your 1st-round upsets, if any?

I like the 6-seed Hornets to beat the 3-seed Heat, so a minor upset. Do North Carolinian Dukies root for the Hornets, or is there just too much UNC-ness to that franchise? Especially since Gerald now plays for Portland.

I think Warriors-Cavs is the most likely Finals matchup, but I think Spurs-Cavs is only slightly less likely. To me, the Golden State-San Antonio series is not nearly the foregone conclusion that people think it is. Play the series 20 times and I think the Warriors win 11.

[fraggler]

I'd love to see the Spurs take one more title before Timmy leaves, but unfortunately, their best ball is being played at the same time as the Warriors best ball, and I think the Warriors win in a best of 7. Cleveland will make the Finals basically by default if there are no injuries like last year. If healthy, I think they can push the Warriors with Lebron doing his superhero tank thing like last year, but that just isn't sustainable for possibly 7 games. Only hiccup is if the Warriors drained themselves too much chasing 73 and some sort of fatigue sets in by the Finals.

[pfrduke]

I think Warriors-Cavs is the most likely Finals matchup, but I think Spurs-Cavs is only slightly less likely. To me, the Golden State-San Antonio series is not nearly the foregone conclusion that people think it is. Play the series 20 times and I think the Warriors win 11.

The consequence of Golden State's historically great year is that the Spurs' own historically great year was completely overshadowed. They had the same record that the Warriors put up last season and were just completely dominant at home. In terms of point differential, they're virtually identical - Warriors +10.8, Spurs +10.6. And yet they'll play the underdog role if that series happens.

[jdk]

Starts tomorrow.

Is anyone picking a different Finals from GSW-Cle?

The Warriors and Cavs are each heavily favored by oddsmakers to reach the Finals again. For different reasons, though. GSW is a 73-win all-time great powerhouse, and while the Cavs have played uninspired this season, no team in the East is regarded as being close in talent. If any of the Spurs, Thunder, or Clippers were in the East, I'd probably pick them to make the Finals. I still kind of want to pick against Cleveland anyway, but I don't know which East team I'd settle on to pull the upset.

What are your 1st-round upsets, if any?

I like the 6-seed Hornets to beat the 3-seed Heat, so a minor upset. Do North Carolinian Dukies root for the Hornets, or is there just too much UNC-ness to that franchise? Especially since Gerald now plays for Portland.

Detroit over Cleveland. Hornets over Miami. Toronto loses 4-2 to GSW.

I have no problem at all watching former Tarheels do well on the Hornets (or anywhere else in the league, for that matter). It's professional basketball. I'm not going to let the decision a kid made when he was 17 years old detract from my enjoyment of the game.

[kAzE]

I think Warriors-Cavs is the most likely Finals matchup, but I think Spurs-Cavs is only slightly less likely. To me, the Golden State-San Antonio series is not nearly the foregone conclusion that people think it is. Play the series 20 times and I think the Warriors win 11.

My best guess is Warriors in 5, maybe 6. From what I know, the Spurs will just have a tough time matching up. Duncan, Aldridge, and Diaw are all too slow to keep up with Draymond, and you just cannot hide Tony Parker against anyone on the Warriors defensively, they will exploit that match up every possession. The Spurs have been an historically great team this year, but they just aren't built to beat a team like the Warriors, IMO. Pop will come up with some crazy wrinkles to steal a game or 2, but they just don't have the personnel to win 4 games.

[JNort]

I don't see anyway the Cavs don't make it. I hope my Hornets do, but without MKG I have doubts about how far we can go. Either way I actually like the Cavs as long as Bron is there (Kyrie too) and hope they make it.

The west though... hmm I can see the Warriors losing to the Spurs or Thunder but I want them to go all the way again. Healthy Cavs vs healthy Warriors

Cavs in 7

[JNort]

Detroit over Cleveland. Hornets over Miami. Toronto loses 4-2 to GSW.

I have no problem at all watching former Tarheels do well on the Hornets (or anywhere else in the league, for that matter). It's professional basketball. I'm not going to let the decision a kid made when he was 17 years old detract from my enjoyment of the game.

Same here. Some I still don't like (Hansbrough, Henson, Ed Davis, Lawson) and some I really like (Barnes, Ellington, Marvin) and others I just don't even notice.

[construe]

No one's considering the Clips? I know they did not do well against the top West teams this year in their respective series, but they were playing a lot of the year without Griffin. Are the Clips underseeded now that Blake is back?

I find myself most often checking on JJ (as well as some of the new Dukies to the league) when checking scores during the season. I think his improvement over the years into an established starter on a playoff team is remarkable. But I also get the feeling that during the reg season, folks just don't want to bother chasing him around or close out on him (why make the effort when there are 82 games to play?), so he scores well because a great shooter should hit (relatively) open shots. However, now that we're in the playoffs, the athletes will win out and will shut him down. That's what LSU did to him his senior year, and I think that fate still dogs him in the NBA. What is JJ's career performance in the playoffs? My memory of him at Orlando was that he struggled, but I don't have an impression of how things went for him last year.

[Edouble]

No one's considering the Clips? I know they did not do well against the top West teams this year in their respective series, but they were playing a lot of the year without Griffin. Are the Clips underseeded now that Blake is back?

I find myself most often checking on JJ (as well as some of the new Dukies to the league) when checking scores during the season. I think his improvement over the years into an established starter on a playoff team is remarkable. But I also get the feeling that during the reg season, folks just don't want to bother chasing him around or close out on him (why make the effort when there are 82 games to play?), so he scores well because a great shooter should hit (relatively) open shots. However, now that we're in the playoffs, the athletes will win out and will shut him down. That's what LSU did to him his senior year, and I think that fate still dogs him in the NBA. What is JJ's career performance in the playoffs? My memory of him at Orlando was that he struggled, but I don't have an impression of how things went for him last year.

Disagree with this. Teams were fighting tooth and nail to stop him during the regular season of his senior year.

He shot the three ball at a 44% clip w/15 PPG in the playoffs last year. Solid.

[Reilly]

Chances of winning the finals, per http://www.basketball-reference.com/

GSW 42.6%
SAS 31.1%
CLE 9.3%
OKC 6.4%
TOR 4.1%
ATL 1.5%
BOS 1.4%
CHO 1.4%
LAC 0.9%
MIA 0.7%
IND 0.5%
HOU 0.1%
(other four teams listed at 0% -- but I guess these percentages are rounded and they technically have some chance)

[construe]

In college, I'm sure folks were trying to stop JJ (well, except for Texas on CBS!), but they usually didn't have the firepower (didn't UNC put Bobby Frasor on him at some point? That worked out well...for Duke!) LSU had the athletes to really bother JJ duirng the NCAA tourney (that and the refs conveniently swallowed their whistles).

My thinking is that NBA playoff teams are also chock full of athletes who can really hound JJ if they want to. But he really has been remarkable in improving himself every year, and he was pretty darn good while Blake was out, so maybe he's also doing well in the playoffs now, too.

Anyway, my original question really was whether the Clips are being underestimated now that Griffin is back (though I gather not 100%).

[GGLC]

Trailblazers all the way!

[Troublemaker]

Anyway, my original question really was whether the Clips are being underestimated now that Griffin is back (though I gather not 100%).

I don't think so. With two historically great teams at the top of the conference, I wouldn't expect anybody to pick the Clips to advance to the Finals. I thought there might be a chance that Portland would be a trendy pick to upset LAC in round 1, but it looks like that hasn't materialized. I would say LAC is estimated correctly right now. Win Round 1, lose to GSW.

[JetpackJesus]

In college, I'm sure folks were trying to stop JJ (well, except for Texas on CBS!), but they usually didn't have the firepower (didn't UNC put Bobby Frasor on him at some point? That worked out well...for Duke!) LSU had the athletes to really bother JJ duirng the NCAA tourney (that and the refs conveniently swallowed their whistles).

My thinking is that NBA playoff teams are also chock full of athletes who can really hound JJ if they want to. But he really has been remarkable in improving himself every year, and he was pretty darn good while Blake was out, so maybe he's also doing well in the playoffs now, too.

Anyway, my original question really was whether the Clips are being underestimated now that Griffin is back (though I gather not 100%).

JJ is a legitimate NBA player now. If he's healthy (no idea if the heel injury is serious), he will contribute. Even when he isn't scoring he contributes offensively with his movement off the ball (he's still better conditioned than whoever is guarding him, even at 31), and he plays solid defense.

As for his playoff performances, I would only look at the last two years with the Clippers since he wasn't really allowed to do anything for most of his time in Orlando and because he's just a completely different and better player now. The last two years with the clips JJ averaged: 27/38.6 MPG, 12.3/14.9 PPG, .459/.439 FG%, and .400/.398 3P%, respectively in the playoffs.

As for the Clips, everything will depend on how well Blake reintegrates. They were still a 53-win team playing in the West while only getting 35GP from their second-best player. I would give them a realistic chance against anyone, though I certainly wouldn't favor them against the Warriors or Spurs.

[gurufrisbee]

The first round match ups don't offer a lot of series that look like they should be close.

It will be a fairly good shock if the Warriors and Spurs don't sweep. Thunder should win pretty easily. Clippers are probably a good lock - which is a little odd since the Blazers probably should be a trendier pick to upset, but the gap is just really big between 4 and 5 in the west (but I think I just want the Blazers to be closer to them since they have been my pro team since I was a kid).

Cleveland should roll in the East. Toronto is actually very good and should cruise through the first round. The 3 through 6 seeds all had identical records. It's probably the only series that should be close. I do think the Heat will roll. The only upset I'm going with is Boston over Atlanta, but that shouldn't really count as an upset.

I do think the GS-Cleveland finals rematch is overwhelmingly likely. But I also don't think it's a done deal that the Warriors win it all. Cleveland last season had no Irving after game 1 and no Love and was literally ONE point away from having a 3-0 lead in the finals. Curry is the MVP and is remarkable, but Lebron is the most talented player there is and what he can do to own a game and a series is unmatched.

[Edouble]

I don't think so. With two historically great teams at the top of the conference, I wouldn't expect anybody to pick the Clips to advance to the Finals. I thought there might be a chance that Portland would be a trendy pick to upset LAC in round 1, but it looks like that hasn't materialized. I would say LAC is estimated correctly right now. Win Round 1, lose to GSW.

FYI, Charles Barkley is picking the Clippers.

[Wander]

I think it's a mistake to just pencil in the Cavs to the Finals - the Raptors only finished 1 game behind. They should probably still make it, but it's not trivial.

[Indoor66]

I think it's a mistake to just pencil in the Cavs to the Finals - the Raptors only finished 1 game behind. They should probably still make it, but it's not trivial.

A definite mistake. I seriously doubt the Cavs get out of the East.