MLB: 2016 Regular Season

[Olympic Fan]

Got to give them credit -- both Braves and the Twins won Friday night.

Now both 1-9 ...

Still tied for the worst record in baseball (everybody else has at least three wins)

[throatybeard]

Cardinals beat the Reds 14-3 to improve to 6-4 through 10 games.

http://espn.go.com/blog/st-louis-car...ng-power-binge

And what of Pittsburgh since that opening sweep? Yikes.

[YmoBeThere]

The Reds are winless on the road and given their management and current roster, they may remain that way for quite some time.

[Olympic Fan]

Heard/read a couple of amazing things in the last 24 hours:

-- I was watching the Dodgers-Giants play Friday night and they said that over the past five years Madison Bumgarner has a home run in every 14 at bats -- the seventh best average in baseball over that span. He has a better homer rate than Bryce Harper or Mike Trout!

-- ESPN has an article up suggesting that King Felix is the unluckiest pitcher in modern times:

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...er-of-all-time

It's fascinating to see the list for the last 100 years ... he's near the top of that list. So is Greg Maddux, one of my favorites, who had 54 career starts in which he held opponents to zero or one run and didn't get a win (he was 0-6 with a 0.78 ERA in those 54 games). The other guys at the top of the list were also studs -- Glavine, Sutton, Ryan ...

[YmoBeThere]

The Reds are winless on the road and given their management and current roster, they may remain that way for quite some time.

And just like that, they go and prove me wrong!

[Bob Green]

-- ESPN has an article up suggesting that King Felix is the unluckiest pitcher in modern times:

King Felix is a stud. When I lived in Washington State I watched a lot of Mariner's baseball and it was always frustrating to see Felix pitch so well while the Seattle offense struggled to give him support.

[throatybeard]

King Felix is a stud. When I lived in Washington State I watched a lot of Mariner's baseball and it was always frustrating to see Felix pitch so well while the Seattle offense struggled to give him support.

In their pitchers' park. But I'm assuming these clevr SABR guys have factored park effects in, right?

So Maddux is unlucky...but he pitched a lot in Wrigley, which makes pitchers unlucky, and old Atlanta stadium, AKA "the launching pad"...

[wilson]

So Maddux is unlucky...but he pitched a lot in Wrigley, which makes pitchers unlucky, and old Atlanta stadium, AKA "the launching pad"...

Maddux only pitched three of his eleven Barves seasons in Fulton-County Stadium, 1993 through 1995. Thereafter, the Barves moved into Turner Field, which was configured with the team's superlative mid-'90s pitching staff specifically in mind. He was also such a ground-ball pitcher anyway that I'm not sure he's the best example here.

[robed deity]

Maddux only pitched three of his eleven Barves seasons in Fulton-County Stadium, 1993 through 1995. Thereafter, the Barves moved into Turner Field, which was configured with the team's superlative mid-'90s pitching staff specifically in mind. He was also such a ground-ball pitcher anyway that I'm not sure he's the best example here.

Yeah, I always thought the bigger issue was his ridiculously low amount of run support. I mean, IIRC, he had a 1.6 era one year and didn't even get 20 wins.

[Olympic Fan]

Maddux only pitched three of his eleven Barves seasons in Fulton-County Stadium, 1993 through 1995. Thereafter, the Barves moved into Turner Field, which was configured with the team's superlative mid-'90s pitching staff specifically in mind. He was also such a ground-ball pitcher anyway that I'm not sure he's the best example here.

But his two greatest seasons -- a 1.56 ERA in 1994 and a 1.63 ERA in 1995 -- were in Fulton-County Stadium. They were also in the heart of the high-scoring steroid era.

And the home park did make a difference -- his home ERAs in those two seasons were 1.76 and 2.23 ... his road ERAs were 1.37 and 1.12

There is a SABR stat that puts ERA in the context of home ballpark and era (the pitching equivalent to OPS-plus) called ERA-plus. Maddux's ERA-plus in those two seasons were 271 and 260 (meaning his was 171 percent and 160 percent better than the average pitcher that season). Those are the fourth and fifth best ERA plus in baseball history -- the second and third best in the modern era.

His career ERA plus is 132 -- which better than Koufax, Dizzy Dean, Bob Gibson and Tom Seaver to name a few.

The comparison with Koufax -- Koufax had some eye-popping ERAs in the mid-sixties -- pitching in the most pitcher-friendly environment in baseball history and during the lowest scoring era since the dead ball. His best ERA plus was 186 -- Maddux had six seasons with better ERA-plus.

The season that bothers me as a Maddux fan was 1998, when he got robbed of the Cy Young by his teammate Tom Glavine -- based solely on run support.

Pitching on the same team and in the same ballparks that season, Maddux had the better ERA (2.22 to 2.51), pitched more innings (251 to 229), had a better WHIP (0.980 to 1.203) a better strikeout to walk ratio (204/45 vs. 157/74) and more complete game shutouts (5 to 3). But Glavine got far more run support and finished with a 20-6 record compared to Maddux's 18-9. Unfortunately, Sabrmetics had not hit the mainstream media and the voters went with the W-L record.

[BandAlum83]

Yeah, I always thought the bigger issue was his ridiculously low amount of run support. I mean, IIRC, he had a 1.6 era one year and didn't even get 20 wins.

Maddux is my favorite pitcher of all time. I went to about 20 games/year back then, and somehow I always managed to see a tough luck loss or no decision for Maddux. Granted, he needed to be able to go eight or nine more often.

I swear I actually was at a game where I saw him give up two grand slams. It doesn't seem possible. There must be a way to look that up. But for a long time I started to think I was a bad luck charm for him.

[wilson]

Maddux is my favorite pitcher of all time. I went to about 20 games/year back then, and somehow I always managed to see a tough luck loss or no decision for Maddux. Granted, he needed to be able to go eight or nine more often.

I swear I actually was at a game where I saw him give up two grand slams. It doesn't seem possible. There must be a way to look that up. But for a long time I started to think I was a bad luck charm for him.

I had the fortune to see a bunch of Maddux games over the years too. The single best baseball game I ever attended was a Maddux 1-0 complete game shutout, ironically back at Wrigley, won by the Braves on an 8th-inning solo homer by Andres Galarraga.

[throatybeard]

Maddux only pitched three of his eleven Barves seasons in Fulton-County Stadium, 1993 through 1995. Thereafter, the Barves moved into Turner Field, which was configured with the team's superlative mid-'90s pitching staff specifically in mind. He was also such a ground-ball pitcher anyway that I'm not sure he's the best example here.

Right, but with Wrigley, that's 13 seasons in Atlanta Stadium and Wrigley, in a 21-season career.

[throatybeard]

Anyway, I think it's worth asking whether that list took park effects into account. I'm guessing so, but I don't know.

Felix Hernandez seems, at least intuitively, like a guy who park effects may have helped.

[DU82]

Maddux only pitched three of his eleven Barves seasons in Fulton-County Stadium, 1993 through 1995. Thereafter, the Barves moved into Turner Field, which was configured with the team's superlative mid-'90s pitching staff specifically in mind. He was also such a ground-ball pitcher anyway that I'm not sure he's the best example here.

Four. The BRAVES moved to Turner Field in 1997, after the Olympics.

[throatybeard]

Four. The BRAVES moved to Turner Field in 1997, after the Olympics.

OK, so then two-thirds of his career in big-time hitters' parks. The other third mostly at Turner, but with some Petco and Chavez Ravine in there for good measure.

[Bob Green]

Felix Hernandez seems, at least intuitively, like a guy who park effects may have helped.

The Seattle Mariners have set records as the most offensively ineffective baseball team in the history of the sport.

[throatybeard]

The Seattle Mariners have set records as the most offensively ineffective baseball team in the history of the sport.

So, low run support. But, the visitors play 81 games a year in that park too, so maybe they're easier to contain as well.

[Bob Green]

So, low run support. But, the visitors play 81 games a year in that park too, so maybe they're easier to contain as well.

How about the 81 games not played in that park? The Mariners' offense still sucks.

[Olympic Fan]

How about the 81 games not played in that park? The Mariners' offense still sucks.

I agree that the pitcher-friendly park in Seattle (although not nearly so pitcher-friendly as it used to be) has played a role in King Felix's bad luck.

But just make sure you don't use park effect to diminish Greg Maddux's record -- he played the majority of his career in hitter-friendly parks and most of the rest of his career in a very neutral environment.

It is always worth looking at part effects when we look at records. For all the talk about the short right-field porch at Yankee Stadium (and it had helped many, many hitters) both Ruth in '27 and Maris in '61 hit more home runs on the road than at home ... and Gehrig was a significantly better hitter on the road in his career than at home. DiMaggio's power numbers were hurt badly by Yankee Stadium (where the old alignment used to be called Death Valley in the left-field power alley) ...

It's always fascinated me that DiMaggio out-hit Ted Williams in neutral parks -- .334 to .328, but because Williams had such an advantage playing half his games in Fenway (where he hit .361) than he looks so much better on paper (DiMaggio hit just .315 in Yankee Stadium)