National Champion Conference Poll

[richardjackson199]

From Which Conference Will This Year's National Champion Come?

[CameronBornAndBred]

Since Duke is in the ACC, it's an easy vote.

[richardjackson199]

I'll be cheering for Duke first, ABC/ABKy second, and ACC 3rd as always.

But in the end I expect great guard play paired with stud bigs to carry either UCLA, Oregon, or Arizona to cutting down the nets this year. As Troublemaker noted, a Final 4 in Glendale could also help.

ACC teams play the best defense. ACC probably has the most strong teams. But are they the best of the best?

Nova has what it takes to repeat. Is Gonzaga legit? (No.) SEC is stronger than usual. Big 12 has some juggernauts.

Who ya got? (Vote with your head, not your heart. We'd love nothing more than K winning his 6th with this team, but it could be a tall order this year.)

As always - the ultimate DBR bragging rights to the winners.

And yes, my vote curses Bill Walton's Conference of Champions.

[Native]

But in the end I expect great guard play paired with stud bigs to carry either UCLA, Oregon, or Arizona to cutting down the nets this year. As Troublemaker noted, a Final 4 in Glendale could also help.

I can definitely see Oregon making a run at it. I think they would have been in the Final Four last year were it not for Buddy Hield.

[DinoDuke]

That team from Durham that's not NCCU

[brlftz]

I think the Big 12 has the best list of contenders - Baylor, Kansas, WVU > UCLA, Arizona, Oregon > Louisville, Virginia, UNC

I still hold out hope that we come closer to our potential by the end of the year, which would disrupt the situation completely. But as of today we aren't in the picture.

[NSDukeFan]

I think the Big 12 has the best list of contenders - Baylor, Kansas, WVU > UCLA, Arizona, Oregon > Louisville, Virginia, UNC

I still hold out hope that we come closer to our potential by the end of the year, which would disrupt the situation completely. But as of today we aren't in the picture.

But will we be on Monday when the newest rankings come out or do we have to wait until Thursday to be considered in the picture?

[brlftz]

But will we be on Monday when the newest rankings come out or do we have to wait until Thursday to be considered in the picture?

We'll know a lot more on Thursday imo. We are too potentially good to ever rule out though.

[richardjackson199]

Duke isn't a favorite, but we are certainly a contender. Louisville looks like the most dangerous team in the ACC to me, especially when they get back to full strength. UNC, FSU, UVA, or even Syracuse or Notre Dame could win it all if the right folks get hot.

Kansas has the talent, but they also have serious distractions. Baylor could do it. I think WVU is overrated, but their press and aggression are well suited for a deep run in the tourney.

I think UCLA, Oregon, and Arizona are just monsters. These are the teams I'd least like to run into. Maybe wanting some payback against Oregon could give us some psychological edge. I think most likely one of these teams cuts down the nets.

The SEC could be a sleeper. Kentucky's guards are exactly what you want to win it all. Florida could absolutely win it with their depth and guards. South Carolina, under the radar, has sole possession of first in the conference.

Nova is the only Big East team good enough to win it all, but they're one of the top favorites to do so.

Is this Gonzaga's year? They'll likely get the tourney's top overall seed, and possibly a favorable path. They'll be highly motivated to make a Final 4. Then if they get there, they're 2 wins away from an undefeated season. They played no one, and aren't battle tested, but it could absolutely happen.

Wisconsin, Maryland, and Purdue are contenders. I don't see any of them in the Final 4, but history favors experienced players in the Dance.

Cincy is a tough. They're another under the radar team I'd hate to play in the tourney. They will be a tough out for anybody.

It's debatable, but I don't see any other contenders. Butler, St. Mary's, Creighton, Xavier, Northwestern, and SMU are not winning it all.

This tourney promises to be amazing with this many contenders. But for now, let's beat the cheats!

[-bdbd]

It's simply a numbers game. I expect the ACC to have ten out of the 68 teams in the NCAAT. More than anyone else. And most of those CAN win it all... Duke, UVA, FSU, L'ville, UNC@CH, Irish, etc.

No dominant team this year, so that's why the numbers (of entrants) are so important. I like ACC's odds.

[JNort]

Shouldn't the poll be "What conference is Duke in?" because it's the same end result.

[richardjackson199]

It's interesting, but not at all surprising that out of 65 votes so far, no one has taken the #1 team in the country in both polls. 1 person has taken Villanova, the #2 team. I agree that part of this no doubt relates to the numbers game - picking a conference with more true contenders increases the probability of getting the winner. Gonzaga and Villanova are the only true contenders in their conferences.

But zero votes from this very well-informed audience suggests (to me anyway) that many on this board aren't yet convinced that Gonzaga is the nation's best team. So do they deserve to be treated as such with the nice reward of the tourney's #1 overall seed? I don't think so. They're being rewarded too much IMO for playing an uber-soft schedule (relative to their peers). Gonzaga has a 5 point win over Florida (November, neutral floor - Orlando isn't Gainesville); a 7 point win over Arizona (without Alonzo Trier, Dec. 3, neutral floor); a 2 point win over Iowa St. (November, neutral floor); and a home blowout of Saint Mary's. If they can beat Saint Mary's on the road and continue to win games against a cupcake conference, they'll waltz into the tourney's #1 overall seed.

I'm sorry, but I believe Duke or virtually any of the contenders on this list would earn the same #1 overall seed with that schedule. They would certainly have a much easier time doing so than going through a power conference schedule like the ACC in addition to a tougher non-conference schedule than Gonzaga had. Duke beat Florida more impressively on a neutral court. Arizona on a neutral court is a nice win. But is this resume really deserving of the #1 overall seed?

I've heard numerous talking heads talk about how legit Gonzaga is, and how "you are what your record says you are so they deserve it." Maybe they are that good - but I've seen nothing from that resume to suggest it. They certainly don't inspire awe of previous undefeateds like UNLV 91 or Kentucky 2015. The crazy thing is Gonzaga may still get a 1 seed if they lose at St. Mary's. In terms of what they've earned with their resume, I'd vote to make them a 3 seed on principle if I was on the selection committee even if they were undefeated.

Yes they'll still have to win 6 in a row to prove it. But a #1 seed is a nice head start. You obviously avoid any other #1's until the Final 4 at the earliest (giving them more time to get upset). You avoid all other #2's and #3's until the Elite 8 at the earliest, playing only one there.

I like Mark Few. But I'll be cheering for the #16 Gonzaga draws to pull the unprecedented upset.

[Wander]

But zero votes from this very well-informed audience suggests (to me anyway) that many on this board aren't yet convinced that Gonzaga is the nation's best team.

I think you're reading something that isn't necessarily there. According to Vegas, out of the 15 teams most likely to win the national title, there are:

5 ACC teams
3 Pac-12 teams
3 Big 12 teams
Kentucky
Wisconsin
Gonzaga
Villanova

So the way you phrased the question, it's hard to argue voting for anyone other than the ACC, Pac 12, or Big 12.

[richardjackson199]

I think you're reading something that isn't necessarily there. According to Vegas, out of the 15 teams most likely to win the national title, there are:

5 ACC teams
3 Pac-12 teams
3 Big 12 teams
Kentucky
Wisconsin
Gonzaga
Villanova

So the way you phrased the question, it's hard to argue voting for anyone other than the ACC, Pac 12, or Big 12.

You're right - I worded that part poorly. I can't make that assumption from the poll votes.

Do others think that most of these 15 contenders (like us) would also be much more likely to get a #1 seed by playing Gonzaga's schedule? Or what would Gonzaga's seed be if they played Duke's schedule? Or Kentucky's? Or that of any of the other contenders?

I just think the committee is in the tough position of comparing apples to oranges with these resumes. The end result is that absolute wins and losses get valued too highly while strength of schedule doesn't get the weight it deserves in seeding.

[Troublemaker]

I like Mark Few. But I'll be cheering for the #16 Gonzaga draws to pull the unprecedented upset.

Why, haha? It sounds like you might not like Mark Few THAT much. I wouldn't wish that outcome on anyone except UNC.

[Wander]

You're right - I worded that part poorly. I can't make that assumption from the poll votes.

Do others think that most of these 15 contenders (like us) would also be much more likely to get a #1 seed by playing Gonzaga's schedule? Or what would Gonzaga's seed be if they played Duke's schedule? Or Kentucky's? Or that of any of the other contenders?

I just think the committee is in the tough position of comparing apples to oranges with these resumes. The end result is that absolute wins and losses get valued too highly while strength of schedule doesn't get the weight it deserves in seeding.

My take is that there are a bunch of teams that are in contention for 1 seeds that are about equal to each other. I don't think Gonzaga is clearly the #1 team or is on a level above everyone else, but I think they're definitely in that top group and are deserving of a 1 seed if they win out.

Gonzaga has definitely been better than Duke this year, and would likely have a better record than we do if they played our schedule (note Gonzaga's non-conference schedule is ranked higher than ours). We can be better than Gonzaga at the end of the season if things go well, but we are not there yet.

[richardjackson199]

Why, haha? It sounds like you might not like Mark Few THAT much. I wouldn't wish that outcome on anyone except UNC.

You got me there. I'm wishing the 16 over 1 upset only on UNC or Kentucky. Mark Few can keep winning until he faces us in the Elite 8, again.

Clearly I'm just irritated that Gonzaga imo kind of gamed the system with their weak overall schedule. I'd kind of like to see the lack of battle testing come back to bite them in the Big Dance.

Yes Gonzaga's nonconference schedule is a little tougher than ours. But Duke more than makes up for it with our conference schedule compared to theirs. We lost a home game we should have won to NC State. We probably won't deserve a 1 seed, and Gonzaga has taken care of their business. I just think their road to a #1 seed was easier than their peer contenders.

[richardjackson199]

For another example of the rewarded for weak schedule/conference effect, look at Saint Mary's. Who have they beaten? Who have they even played? Seriously.

Saint Mary's resume boasts a 23 point loss to Gonzaga and a 14 point home loss to UT-Arlington. Yet they are ranked 20th in both polls, 1-2 spots behind us. They are ranked ahead of Butler who has beaten Villanova, Northwestern, Arizona, Cincinnati, Indiana, and Xavier among other decent teams. Saint Mary's has no worries getting into the dance, even after Gonzaga beats them again. Yet Pitt, who may be a better team than Saint Mary's, can forget the NCAAT and would be lucky to make the NIT at this point. That is due in large part to Pitt playing an ACC schedule. What would Pitt's record and ranking be with Saint Mary's schedule?

Saint Mary's isn't a National Champion contender of course, but they just underscore how a weak schedule can overinflate rankings and eventually NCAAT seeding. If they hadn't laid an egg against UT-Arlington, what would their current ranking be?

Who you play and where you play them matters immensely.

[richardjackson199]

Seeing Saint Mary's schedule makes me even less impressed with Gonzaga. Gonzaga's signature victories will likely be 2 neutral court wins over Florida and Arizona, the most recent of which was Dec. 3. Their other signature wins will be Saint Mary's and Saint Mary's (who may or may not be as good as Pitt, the team in sole possession of dead last in the ACC).

Gonzaga is a very good team and is probably legit. I just don't think they will have earned the prize for the nation's best regular season team - the #1 overall seed in the NCAAT. But they're going to get it.

Rant over. We're going to beat them, the heels, and the bulldogs they rode in on.

[brevity]

The OP's bizarre anti-Gonzaga rant made me vote for the West Coast Conference.

It's bad strategy because I'm basically pinning all hopes on a single team. (I think St. Mary's will eventually consider their season wildly successful if they make the Sweet 16.) I don't know if Gonzaga is good enough to play to their likely #1 seed, but I could say that about a few Duke teams over the years. There is an apples to oranges comparison, but an undefeated team makes the call really easy.

Two more thoughts:

1. I don't think Gonzaga gets the #1 overall seed unless every other option is really weak.
2. I think Gonzaga moves off the 1 line entirely if they lose before Selection Sunday.