Way too early 2017 projections

[Olympic Fan]

We got our first 2017 preseason top 10 today from a fairly respected source -- Ken Pomeroy:

https://twitter.com/kenpomeroy/statu...41169826197505

His way too early top 10:

1. Louisville
2. Kentucky
3. Duke
4. Villanova
5. Kansas
6. UNC
7. Oregon
8. Wisconsin
9. Indiana
10. Virginia

Of course, Pomeroy is respected because of his computer analysis and it's way too early to run the numbers, so this is off the top of his head. In fact, we know it is because his original list had Duke at No. 5 until someone tweeted him and reminded him that Jefferson would be back at Duke next year. This is his "revised" top 10.

Obviously, it's too early until we know who goes pro and who stays ... which fifth-year guys are added and so on. I was interested in his pick of two teams that could very well be ineligible next year (Louisville -- still waiting to see if the NCAA accepts their one-year ban -- and UNC). Interesting that he ranks Louisville so high -- I love their young talent, but No. 1?

Still, take a look and post other early projections here when they are released (ESPN usually does one right after the championship game).

[uh_no]

Of course, Pomeroy is respected because of his computer analysis and it's way too early to run the numbers, so this is off the top of his head. In fact, we know it is because his original list had Duke at No. 5 until someone tweeted him and reminded him that Jefferson would be back at Duke next year. This is his "revised" top 10.

Uhhh what? This is almost certainly computer rankings. His preseason rankings take into account "program history", returning talent, and recruiting strength. It's likely his system had amile not returning...so he had to go change his lineup data and rerun the numbers...I'm not sure how that proves that it's off the top of his head.

Given that KP never does anything "off the top of his head" and has an algorithm that can be run whenever you have a good idea of what next years rosters will be.

He even says this on his blog: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/web...cheduling_help

It's the same algorithm he always uses...

[kAzE]

Yeah, Louisville at #1 seems way off. Their best 2 players, Lee and Lewis are both gone after this year, their best recruit in a 2-man class thus far is VJ King, a borderline top 30 prospect, and their top returning scorers are Onuaku and Snider. That's the #1 team? No way.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Yeah, Louisville at #1 seems way off. Their best 2 players, Lee and Lewis are both gone after this year, their best recruit in a 2-man class thus far is VJ King, a borderline top 30 prospect, and their top returning scorers are Onuaku and Snider. That's the #1 team? No way.

Seeing Louisville up that high had me scratching my head a little, too. But there is some serious talent on that roster if Onuaku stays. The starting backcourt of Snider and Mitchell would be among the best in the country and they have a variety of bigs with Spaulding and Mohammed.

[uh_no]

Yeah, Louisville at #1 seems way off. Their best 2 players, Lee and Lewis are both gone after this year, their best recruit in a 2-man class thus far is VJ King, a borderline top 30 prospect, and their top returning scorers are Onuaku and Snider. That's the #1 team? No way.

per his twitter comment, he's assuming all projected first rounders leave and second rounders stay.

I would imagine they're ranked so high above us because:
1) both teams are losing their top 2 players
2) both teams have had great success (in KPs rankings) over the past several years..so get a high "historical" component
3) KP far under weights recruits relative to most ranking systems. While this is certainly anti-"new-shiny", and probably works for a handful of teams, i have a suspicion it's less applicable at the top end, where it's clearly proven freshman can drive a team...to say...a natty. This negates much of our stellar class relative to UL's mediocre one
4) UL is better than duke in this year's rankings...by a decent margin...9 vs 19. Much of his preseason rankings will be driven by performance this year. This is what REALLY hurts us and negates any advantage we might have gotten from recruiting.

So yes, we think it's off...but such is the nature of computer stats...sometimes they produce interesting results that fail the eye test!

[kAzE]

I actually LOVE Wisconsin next year. They lose basically nobody from this year's team, and Ethan Happ has emerged as a legitimate star. Hayes, Brown, Koenig, and Showalter will give the Badgers 4 senior starters who are all battle tested. I think they have to be considered a top 10 team in 2017. Good for Greg Gard. I never thought they would turn it around this quickly after losing Kaminsky and Dekker last year.

[Olympic Fan]

I actually LOVE Wisconsin next year. They lose basically nobody from this year's team, and Ethan Happ has emerged as a legitimate star. Hayes, Brown, Koenig, and Showalter will give the Badgers 4 senior starters who are all battle tested. I think they have to be considered a top 10 team in 2017. Good for Greg Gard. I never thought they would turn it around this quickly after losing Kaminsky and Dekker last year.

That's great ... but that's also the danger of projecting these things that early. Reports that Nigel Hayes, for one, will at least test the NBA waters..

If Happ and those four seniors DO all returns -- yes, Wisconsin becomes a preseason top 10 team.

But make sure they're all back first.

[kAzE]

That's great ... but that's also the danger of projecting these things that early. Reports that Nigel Hayes, for one, will at least test the NBA waters..

If Happ and those four seniors DO all returns -- yes, Wisconsin becomes a preseason top 10 team.

But make sure they're all back first.

Very true, but I'm not sure anyone thinks Nigel Hayes is going to be a major factor in this year's draft. He's a 6'7" power forward who shot 29% from 3 and 37% overall this season. He is 7 for 42 from the field in his last 3 games. His draft stock has only gone down since the tournament has begun. If the Badgers have any chance at beating Notre Dame, Hayes is going to have to play MUCH better than he has thus far. He's been a much better player in the past, when he was the 3rd scoring option, but it hasn't been a great year for him.

If Happ develops an outside stroke, he could potentially become an NBA prospect.

[NSDukeFan]

per his twitter comment, he's assuming all projected first rounders leave and second rounders stay.

I would imagine they're ranked so high above us because:
1) both teams are losing their top 2 players
2) both teams have had great success (in KPs rankings) over the past several years..so get a high "historical" component
3) KP far under weights recruits relative to most ranking systems. While this is certainly anti-"new-shiny", and probably works for a handful of teams, i have a suspicion it's less applicable at the top end, where it's clearly proven freshman can drive a team...to say...a natty. This negates much of our stellar class relative to UL's mediocre one
4) UL is better than duke in this year's rankings...by a decent margin...9 vs 19. Much of his preseason rankings will be driven by performance this year. This is what REALLY hurts us and negates any advantage we might have gotten from recruiting.

So yes, we think it's off...but such is the nature of computer stats...sometimes they produce interesting results that fail the eye test!

But Louisville didn't even make the tournament. 😉

[Devilwin]

I don't see Louisville ahead of us. Not a chance. Besides, we got K...

[Indoor66]

Frankly, this is not even entertaining speculation. It is pure B. S. Idle speculation based on faulty assumptions.

[CDu]

per his twitter comment, he's assuming all projected first rounders leave and second rounders stay.

I would imagine they're ranked so high above us because:
1) both teams are losing their top 2 players
2) both teams have had great success (in KPs rankings) over the past several years..so get a high "historical" component
3) KP far under weights recruits relative to most ranking systems. While this is certainly anti-"new-shiny", and probably works for a handful of teams, i have a suspicion it's less applicable at the top end, where it's clearly proven freshman can drive a team...to say...a natty. This negates much of our stellar class relative to UL's mediocre one
4) UL is better than duke in this year's rankings...by a decent margin...9 vs 19. Much of his preseason rankings will be driven by performance this year. This is what REALLY hurts us and negates any advantage we might have gotten from recruiting.

So yes, we think it's off...but such is the nature of computer stats...sometimes they produce interesting results that fail the eye test!

It also probably undervalues what Jefferson will provide because of Jefferson's injury this year and more limited role in prior years.

[Bluegrassdevil1]

Yeah, Louisville at #1 seems way off. Their best 2 players, Lee and Lewis are both gone after this year, their best recruit in a 2-man class thus far is VJ King, a borderline top 30 prospect, and their top returning scorers are Onuaku and Snider. That's the #1 team? No way.

Frankie Hughes, a lower-ranked recruit for them, has recently "separated" himself from the program.

U of L does have Tony Hick, a Penn transfer (I believe it is Penn, might be Princeton).

Onuaku is widely believed to "heavily explore" the NBA waters, and that departure would profoundly change U of L next season.

In my opinion, with Onuaku, or not, Duke, UK, Michigan St., Oregon, and Wisconsin will be a step ahead of U of L, with other teams likely better as well.

[uh_no]

It also probably undervalues what Jefferson will provide because of Jefferson's injury this year and more limited role in prior years.

fully agree. He's not a big fan of preseason ratings simply since it's so difficult to come up with a very objective measure that fits all cases...like this one for instance. He's always had trouble dealing with injuries appropriately.

[rasputin]

I don't see Louisville ahead of us. Not a chance. Besides, we got K...

And, presumably, the Louisville recruiting playbook is toning down the hooker thing for a while.

[Kedsy]

Personally, I find the craziest thing in those rankings to be UNC, sans Paige and Johnson, at #6.

[CDu]

Personally, I find the craziest thing in those rankings to be UNC, sans Paige and Johnson, at #6.

Yeah, that is largely driven by the "past is prelude" nature of his preseason rankings. They will still have some talent, and very experienced talent at that. Berry, Pinson, Jackson, Hicks, and Meeks is a potentially very good starting five, with all five having a shot at All-ACC. But they have no talent on the bench, and no frontcourt depth. I can certainly see them as a ranked team, but not top-10. And that is assuming no early entries from them.

[devildeac]

Personally, I find the craziest thing in those rankings to be UNC, sans Paige and Johnson, at #6.

No worries. Wheat'll 'splain it soon enough .

[bob blue devil]

Personally, I find the craziest thing in those rankings to be UNC, sans Paige and Johnson, at #6.

doubling down already?

[dukelifer]

Yeah, that is largely driven by the "past is prelude" nature of his preseason rankings. They will still have some talent, and very experienced talent at that. Berry, Pinson, Jackson, Hicks, and Meeks is a potentially very good starting five, with all five having a shot at All-ACC. But they have no talent on the bench, and no frontcourt depth. I can certainly see them as a ranked team, but not top-10. And that is assuming no early entries from them.

The talking heads seem to be falling in love with Hicks of late. If they win it all or even get to the Finals- Hicks will be a big reason and may go after this year.