MBB: Duke vs. Oregon, NCAAT R16 (Thur ~2200 EDT, TBS) PreGame and Ingame Thread

[NM Duke Fan]

Possibly...lately we are the ones in foul trouble! However, in past years in terms of depth and how many players Coach is comfortable with, Seven is Sufficient. My main concern is avoiding periods of mental lapses, which tend to build a negative momentum. Perhaps the last game created a major teaching opportunity, and lessons have been sufficiently reinforced. IF once again BI, GA, and LK all are playing well, this is a really tough team to beat ... for anybody. Plumlee might have the opportunity to really do some damage inside as well, including rebounding. There have been worse matchups over the years at this stage of the game. Therefore I remain an Optimist.

[Mike Corey]

Tough matchup for us, but they all are at this point, and of all the 1 seeds this is the one I'd like to play right now.

Don't know nearly enough about Oregon to say anything intelligent other than that I believe we're more than capable of scoring more than them on Thursday night.

[kAzE]

What's up with the Odell Beckham hair style in this tournament? There's at least 1 guy on every team who's got it and I think Oregon has like 4 of them.

[devildeac]

What's up with the Odell Beckham hair style in this tournament? There's at least 1 guy on every team who's got it and I think Oregon has like 4 of them.

Nike-mandated colors?

Color coordinated with their unis?

[DukieInKansas]

I agree. Didn't see anything there to be afraid of...

Except the color of their uniforms? Will the team practice with bright lights in their eyes to similate playing against that brightness?

[uh_no]

Tough matchup for us, but they all are at this point, and of all the 1 seeds this is the one I'd like to play right now.

Don't know nearly enough about Oregon to say anything intelligent other than that I believe we're more than capable of scoring more than them on Thursday night.

judging by KP, I think we match up very well.

1) they don't rebound well overall. They're okay on the offensive side, but awful on the defensive end
2) they don't shoot 3s or defend the 3 well
3) they're not big. they're two centers are 6'9 and 6'10 (boucher and bell). bell isn't a zero on offense, but KP has him down on "role player" status.
4) their top offensive thread, brooks, is "only" 6'7...small enough that we don't have to worry about our lack of depth
5) their PG is rarely used (benson...jesus...all their players names start with B...they also play a benjamin). KP has him labeled as "nearly invisible"
6) dorsey and cook look like a really good combo. at 2 and 3. dorsey is their only 3 point threat.

So those 7 guys:
benson-dorsey-cook-brooks-bell

benjamin subbing for cook
boucher for bell

get almost all the minutes.

So long as they don't have an aberration and go nuts from three, I think we win this one.

[Indoor66]

judging by KP, I think we match up very well.

1) they don't rebound well overall. They're okay on the offensive side, but awful on the defensive end
2) they don't shoot 3s or defend the 3 well
3) they're not big. they're two centers are 6'9 and 6'10 (boucher and bell). bell isn't a zero on offense, but KP has him down on "role player" status.
4) their top offensive thread, brooks, is "only" 6'7...small enough that we don't have to worry about our lack of depth
5) their PG is rarely used (benson...jesus...all their players names start with B...they also play a benjamin). KP has him labeled as "nearly invisible"
6) dorsey and cook look like a really good combo. at 2 and 3. dorsey is their only 3 point threat.

So those 7 guys:
benson-dorsey-cook-brooks-bell

benjamin subbing for cook
boucher for bell

get almost all the minutes.

So long as they don't have an aberration and go nuts from three, I think we win this one.

How many Balls do they play with?

[Troublemaker]

What's up with the Odell Beckham hair style in this tournament? There's at least 1 guy on every team who's got it and I think Oregon has like 4 of them.

Also, I didn't realize there were so many Katniss Everdeen fans among college basketball players, most evident when someone hits a three and they pantomime drawing from the quiver and shooting.

[pfrduke]

judging by KP, I think we match up very well.

1) they don't rebound well overall. They're okay on the offensive side, but awful on the defensive end
2) they don't shoot 3s or defend the 3 well
3) they're not big. they're two centers are 6'9 and 6'10 (boucher and bell). bell isn't a zero on offense, but KP has him down on "role player" status.
4) their top offensive thread, brooks, is "only" 6'7...small enough that we don't have to worry about our lack of depth
5) their PG is rarely used (benson...jesus...all their players names start with B...they also play a benjamin). KP has him labeled as "nearly invisible"
6) dorsey and cook look like a really good combo. at 2 and 3. dorsey is their only 3 point threat.

So those 7 guys:
benson-dorsey-cook-brooks-bell

benjamin subbing for cook
boucher for bell

get almost all the minutes.

So long as they don't have an aberration and go nuts from three, I think we win this one.

Boucher may only be 6'10", but he's a long 6'10" and an elite shot blocker. He presents a problem for us driving the ball into the paint. This actually could be an opportunity for Marshall the lurker to come into play - spread four out around Marshall, have a wing drive, get Boucher chasing blocks and dump off to Plumlee. I think Oregon swarms pretty well, so Marshall will have to be ready to kick it out and not just take contested layups.

[Troublemaker]

An aspect to this game that I find interesting: who will guard Plum and who will Plum guard? Duke may need to play zone to maximize the use of our best line-up. St. Joe's limited Oregon's second chance points, and I expect Plum will need to be a big part of that for us to do the same.

An excellent point. If we thought UNC-W's 4-out offense was tough to guard, wait til we have to play Oregon's 5-out motion. Their center Boucher can hit threes and so they spread you 5-out and drive.

It makes a ton of sense to zone and hope that they miss shots. Otherwise, Oregon will probably spread and drive us to death. I'll eat crow if Duke ends up playing good m2m defense against Oregon. I definitely don't expect it.

[Dukehky]

Also, I didn't realize there were so many Katniss Everdeen fans among college basketball players, most evident when someone hits a three and they pantomime drawing from the quiver and shooting.

It's ridiculous. 3 pointers just aren't that hard to make, especially considering how many people take, the celebration after every single make is so annoying. Jamal Murray, the worst of the perpetrators, but we don't have to watch him anymore.

[DavidBenAkiva]

When you look into the stats, Oregon is a team that is solid in a lot of areas but excellent in few. Specifically, they are excellent at blocks and steals. Those are the only categories in which they are among the best (3rd by block percentage and 3rd in steals per play) in the country.

Most of the blocks are attributable to their 6'10" senior Chris Boucher. The swatter is an interesting player. He's tall, but he weighs in at a Brandon Ingram-esque 200 pounds and is pretty decent at the three point shot, connecting on 34.6% on 107 attempts this season. He's more of a Ryan Kelly than a Mason Plumlee, if you know what I mean. For his part, the youngest Plumlee has 2-3 inches and 50 pounds on Boucher. MP3 is going to struggle matching up against Boucher on the perimeter, but Boucher is going to struggle matching up against Plumlee down low.

Steals are more of a team effort. Senior Forward Elgin Cook leads the team with 1.4 steals per game, which is about as many Grayson Allen gets. Allen is a good player, but I don't think "ball thief" comes to mind when you think about Allen. Other terms come to mind, but that's a different story. It's more of a team effort with Oregon. Dillon Brooks, Dwayne Benjamin, and Jordan Bell all average 1.1 steals per game.

Blocks and steals appears to be the source of the Ducks defensive prowess. They don't rate among the top 25 in the country in any other statistical category on defense (or offense, for that matter). Opponents shoot the ball reasonably well against them (48.6%), a little better from 3-point range than inside the arc. That makes sense given the presence of Boucher around the rim. Also, the Ducks play zone defense, which leads to a lot of jump shots.

The Ducks offense is a little better than their defense, but nothing really jumps out at you. Their rebounding rate is OK (32.0%, 50th in the country). They do struggle a bit on defensive rebounding and giving up offensive boards. They rank 212th in the country in both categories. Given their lack of low-post girth, that makes sense. Plumlee and Jeter, who is showing real ability at getting offensive rebounds of late, should have some success getting 2nd and 3rd chance buckets. I hope Chase decides to pass out when he collects a rebound in traffic, but it's good that he's making his presence felt.

I've looked at their other stats and found Oregon to be good but not particularly great on either offense or defense. They also lack a true post player but make up for it with a bevy of wings. Four of their seven rotation players (Dillon Brooks, Elgin Cook, Dwayne Benjamin, and Jordan Bell) stand between 6'5" and 6'7" and between 190 and 206 pounds. Their guards have decent height, too, but none of them appear to be particularly quick from what I can tell. Brooks is the headliner among the group. He shoots it well from the floor, the 3-point line, and the free throw line. He really torched St. Joe's to the tune of 25 points on 4-7 shooting from three. He also shot 4-7 from 3 against Utah in the Pac-12 Final and 2-3 from deep against Arizona. He's done well in big games. Elgin Cook is a similar player to Brooks, if just a tick lower across the board. He averages slightly less in almost all categories. Among their other wings, Benjamin is similar in stats to Brooks and Cook if a tick less across the board (noticing a trend here?). A little more than half of Benjamin's shots come from behind the arc, where he connects on an OK 32.1% of attempts. Bell is a little different than the other three in that he doesn't take 3 point shots. He's an inside-the-arc player.

There are two guards among the top 7 players, Freshman Tyler Dorsey and Sophomore Casey Benson. Dorsey is the best shooter on the team, making 41.8% of his 4.5 3-point attempts per game. Benson is more of a distributor. He doesn't score much, but averages 3.0 assists per game against just 0.6 turnovers.

So that is Oregon for you. They are pretty good across the board, lack a true post player, but make up for it with a lot of wings and guards. They block the ball a lot and get some steals out of the zone with all those wings. It will be an interesting matchup for Duke.

On paper, Plumlee and Ingram will have some serious height and length advantages. Marshall shouldn't have to deal with a guy that can cause him foul trouble. Matt Jones will probably be on assignment against Dillon Brooks. That will leave Grayson and Luke to guard taller, more experienced players. There should be plenty of open looks from range when Duke has the ball. If the team can limit the turnovers through crisp passing and connect on 3 point shots, we should be in good shape. Grayson has been showing improved ability to get the ball to the rim with floaters and mid-range jump shots. He and Brandon will need those to fall to cope with Boucher's long arms around the basket.

[kAzE]

judging by KP, I think we match up very well.

1) they don't rebound well overall. They're okay on the offensive side, but awful on the defensive end
2) they don't shoot 3s or defend the 3 well
3) they're not big. they're two centers are 6'9 and 6'10 (boucher and bell). bell isn't a zero on offense, but KP has him down on "role player" status.
4) their top offensive thread, brooks, is "only" 6'7...small enough that we don't have to worry about our lack of depth
5) their PG is rarely used (benson...jesus...all their players names start with B...they also play a benjamin). KP has him labeled as "nearly invisible"
6) dorsey and cook look like a really good combo. at 2 and 3. dorsey is their only 3 point threat.

So those 7 guys:
benson-dorsey-cook-brooks-bell

benjamin subbing for cook
boucher for bell

get almost all the minutes.

So long as they don't have an aberration and go nuts from three, I think we win this one.

I'm much more worried than you. Check out this excerpt from an ESPN article: ". . . can Duke handle elite teams and advance to Houston with a subpar defense? Before its encounter with Duke, 13-seed UNC-Wilmington hadn't registered 85 points or more since its Feb. 11 win over Elon (86-82). Yale connected on 50 percent of its attempts inside the arc against the Blue Devils and finished with a higher points-per-possession rate (1.03) than it accrued in previous matchups against Harvard and Princeton."

Yale went 4-23 from 3, and several of those misses were of the wide open variety. If they hit 3 of those, we might be done. I wouldn't expect Oregon to shoot that poorly, and I wouldn't expect us to shoot as well as we did against Yale, either.

If we can't stop them from scoring in the paint, forget about 3s, they won't need them.

[duke79]

I think the strategy against the Ducks is very simple. Play like we did in the first half against Yale and we win (Hell, we should win the entire tournament!); play like we did in the second half against Yale and we lose.

We need to play smart and well for the ENTIRE 40 minutes of the game!! (some good D would help too)

[Troublemaker]

I think Plumlee can get in some good 9-to-5 work in the paint in this matchup.

We will definitely need MP3 to use his size to grab offensive rebounds. If Oregon has one weakness, it's giving up offensive boards. Which perhaps makes sense since their center Boucher is 190-lbs. And their other center Bell is only 6'9 225-lbs. And their PF Brooks is 6'7 225-lbs.

Also, props to MP3 for playing without the mask. He is taking on a higher risk of re-injury (unless I'm wrong about the purpose of the mask; not a doctor, only HI Express) in order to provide his teammates with a much better MP3. It's not Purple Heart stuff -- I would expect most power conference players to make the same sacrifice -- but it should be commended anyway.

[sammy3469]

An excellent point. If we thought UNC-W's 4-out offense was tough to guard, wait til we have to play Oregon's 5-out motion. Their center Boucher can hit threes and so they spread you 5-out and drive.

It makes a ton of sense to zone and hope that they miss shots. Otherwise, Oregon will probably spread and drive us to death. I'll eat crow if Duke ends up playing good m2m defense against Oregon. I definitely don't expect it.

If K decides to play man (which I sort of doubt), having Ingram on Boucher makes more sense than having him trying to be strong enough to Cook. Marshall can sag off Cook if need be to provide help in the pain as you'll gladly let Cook try to beat you from 3-point range (which he will try to do, he's just not that good of shooter out there). Cook's a lot like ND's Colson and Ingram had a lot of trouble with that matchup.

I do expect a ton of zone though. The 1-3-1 makes a ton of sense since Ingram's length at the top gives a bunch of cover, etc. Like you said, you'll let anyone not named Dorsey take 3s. They just don't shoot them that well, but love to take them. As long as you can rebound, they're an eminently beatable team.

[Troublemaker]

Current Vegas lines for all Sweet 16 matchups:

Oregon -2 vs Duke
Oklahoma -1.5 vs TAMU

Kansas -6.5 vs Maryland
Villanova -4.5 vs Miami

UNC -5.5 vs Indiana
ND -1 vs Wisconsin

UVA -5.5 vs Iowa St
Gonzaga -4.5 vs Syracuse

Very tight.

[TruBlu]

You know what.i have no idea how we will respond playing in california.which may be a home game for oregon.no matter what happens.
I absolutely love the fight this team has.they are a resilient group. I wasnt sure we would be playing after this weekend.
I know they will be giving thier all.win or lose.you have to love this bunch.my hat is off to them.
Can they win of course they can.
I cant state enough the appreciation i have for this team.

As long as they don't redo the floor to look like that gawdawful real home court of theirs!

[Kfanarmy]

I didn't see anything that made me feel like Duke can't beat that team. Play solid D, execute and make some shots, and I think Duke has a really good chance to advance.

What wine pairs well with foie gras?

IDK St Joes made them work...but their defense is about 60 spots above Duke's at the moment.

[BandAlum83]

Also, I didn't realize there were so many Katniss Everdeen fans among college basketball players, most evident when someone hits a three and they pantomime drawing from the quiver and shooting.

Don't we all love us some Katniss?