MBB: Duke at Louisville (Sat, 12 pm, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[JBDuke]

A depleted Duke squad travels to Louisville for another tough road game. ESPN has the broadcast at noon on Saturday.

A tough trip for the Devils. They're coming off an emotionally-draining win over the Heels (still feels good to write that), and they're almost certain to be without captain Matt Jones, which means a squad getting bench contributions from Luke Kennard and a few minutes from Chase Jeter is going to have to step it up, and the minutes load on the starters just got worse.

More to come.

[MCFinARL]

For what it's worth, Louisville has lost Anas Mahmoud to a sprained ankle. He played 17 minutes in the last Duke Louisville game, with 4 rebounds, 2 points, 1 assist and 3 blocks.

But he was also their 7th guy in terms of minutes played, and they had an 8th guy with almost as many minutes, so it may not really create much of a depth problem for them.

[MChambers]

For what it's worth, Louisville has lost Anas Mahmoud to a sprained ankle. He played 17 minutes in the last Duke Louisville game, with 4 rebounds, 2 points, 1 assist and 3 blocks.

But he was also their 7th guy in terms of minutes played, and they had an 8th guy with almost as many minutes, so it may not really create much of a depth problem for them.

Louisville has 7 players? What a luxury! I'm still picking our band of brothers, but they're going to be tired. (Can Jason Tatum reclassify, today?)

[dukebluesincebirth]

For what it's worth, Louisville has lost Anas Mahmoud to a sprained ankle. He played 17 minutes in the last Duke Louisville game, with 4 rebounds, 2 points, 1 assist and 3 blocks.

But he was also their 7th guy in terms of minutes played, and they had an 8th guy with almost as many minutes, so it may not really create much of a depth problem for them.

But also, how many of their players will be exhausted from partying with hookers on campus Friday night? Advantage Duke.

[BD80]

But also, how many of their players will be exhausted from partying with hookers on campus Friday night? Advantage Duke.

Pitino has a strict 10 minute curfew

[kAzE]

But also, how many of their players will be exhausted from partying with hookers on campus Friday night? Advantage Duke.

Shots fired . . .

Realistically, I don't think we're going to be favored in this one. The game at the Dean Dome was emotionally charged, and our guys had to be going on pure adrenaline towards the end of the 2nd half. Even with Matt going down, he at least gave us SOME minutes. I don't see how we can maintain that level of energy and effort with only 5 guys from the start of the game. It's going to be brutally taxing, especially against that Louisville press.

[Hingeknocker]

Pitino has a strict 10 minute curfew

I realize there's still 24+ hours until the game, but would anyone be opposed to shutting down this thread after this comment? Not sure where we go from here.

In truth, it's hard to avoid a feeling of "house money" leading up to this game. I'm excited to see our guys go out there to fight and battle together again. The level of defense that we played as a team - Marshall's 13 seconds notwithstanding - to avoid foul trouble was amazing, and I see no reason why it can't continue. I'm sure we'll see stretches of zone, but I've been incredibly encouraged by our man defense in the past two games.

[FerryFor50]

I know we've had an exciting week or two. Beating Louisville, Virginia on a buzzer beater and UNC on their home floor in spectacularly soul crushing fashion probably has spoiled us and raised our expectation levels a notch or two. Plus, factor in that Louisville's season is meaningless and we should win handily on Saturday, right?

Ehhhhh...

If you watched any of the L'ville/Syracuse appetizer before the Duke/UNC showdown, you saw L'ville's press absolutely crush the spirit of Syracuse. You saw highlight reel dunk after highlight reel dunk. And you saw Onuaku making ridiculous behind the back and alley oop passes. It was essentially Harlem Globetrotters vs Washington Generals.

So, Louisville apparently has *not* gotten the memo that their season is over. They are still playing relentless pressing basketball, and doing it effectively.

When Duke played them last, they had Matt Jones to stymie Damion Lee (who was also nursing a knee issue). Lee shot 3-15 that game and was 0-5 from 3. Now Matt is hurt and out for the foreseeable future and Lee is coming off a 6-14 shooting performance (15 pts) against Syracuse.

Given the lack of depth, Louisville's intense press, and the inevitable drop off from a huge week (as well as the "revenge" factor and being on L'ville's home floor), I don't see Duke winning this one. The only chance is if Louisville goes cold from the floor and both Ingram and Allen play like they did against UNC, with additional help from Kennard and Plumlee. I don't know that the whole team will be able to click like they did last game. Hopefully I'm dead wrong, but I'm definitely tempering my expectations in this one.

[CDu]

For what it's worth, Louisville has lost Anas Mahmoud to a sprained ankle. He played 17 minutes in the last Duke Louisville game, with 4 rebounds, 2 points, 1 assist and 3 blocks.

But he was also their 7th guy in terms of minutes played, and they had an 8th guy with almost as many minutes, so it may not really create much of a depth problem for them.

They are also without Mangok Mathiang, who was a starting-caliber big. So now they have only Matz Stockman backing up Onuaku. Stockman is comparable to our backup bigs. They are, of course, deeper than us on the perimeter, by virtue of having even one sub.

They have an 8-9 man rotation even without Mahmoud or Mathiang. Johnson, Adele, and Mitchell provide depth along with Stockman.

I am actually not too concerned with their press though. We have Ingram playing the 4, and his ability to handle the ball like a guard combined with his ability to pass over Louisville's small guards (and pass to another guard at that) really takes the teeth out of the press. Not that pressure can't be a problem. Just that a press against Syracuse (who has just one ballhandler) is going to look a lot better than a press against a team with 4 ballhandlers.

[COYS]

They are also without Mangok Mathiang, who was a starting-caliber big. So now they have only Matz Stockman backing up Onuaku. Stockman is comparable to our backup bigs. They are, of course, deeper than us on the perimeter, by virtue of having even one sub.

They have an 8-9 man rotation even without Mahmoud or Mathiang. Johnson, Adele, and Mitchell provide depth along with Stockman.

I am actually not too concerned with their press though. We have Ingram playing the 4, and his ability to handle the ball like a guard combined with his ability to pass over Louisville's small guards (and pass to another guard at that) really takes the teeth out of the press. Not that pressure can't be a problem. Just that a press against Syracuse (who has just one ballhandler) is going to look a lot better than a press against a team with 4 ballhandlers.

Nice analysis on Louisville's press. When pressing works, it's because other teams can force the ball out of the best ballhandler's hands and to (preferably) a forward who is uncomfortable bringing the ball up. Not only is Brandon perfectly comfortable bringing the ball up, he's actually good at it. In addition, Marshall has shown total comfort with flashing to the middle of the court, receiving a pass, and quickly getting the ball back to one of the guards. We've actually handled the few presses that we've encountered this season very, very well.

The one thing I would say is that it is imperative that we beat the press by passing. If Grayson, Derryck, Luke, and Brandon are dribbling by defenders every single time down the court, they will definitely be more fatigued by the end of the game. I'd much rather Louisville players tire out running around in the backcourt as we calmly pass over and around their press.

[COYS]

Louisville would have been a tough test with everyone healthy. With the injuries, it's obviously tougher. But I won't lie. I'm kind of excited to see what happens. I feel like our guys will be able to play loose, without any pressure. I'm sure Luke, while certainly not happy that Matt is injured, has got to be excited knowing that he's going to be on the court all game, tomorrow. Meanwhile, for Brandon, Marshall and Grayson, it's really just business as usual. Not much changes for them. They will get as close to 40 minutes as possible. Derryck and Luke will see their minutes increase, obviously, but there's reason to be at least a little optimistic. Derryck has slowly but surely morphed from an incredibly quick guard who had no idea how to use his quickness on the court into a guard who is a pain the rear for opposing point guards. Luke has been inconsistent on offense, true, but he's also capable of going off for 30. Now, both Derryck and Luke get their chance to shine.

I still wouldn't be shocked to see something totally off the wall like how Reggie Love actually played some meaningful minutes back in 2001 after the Boozer injury. Maybe we'll see K bring in both Obi and Vrank at the 12:30 mark right before the under 12 timeout to give some of our guys a little extra rest, much like how he's been resting important players at that point for years. Maybe we'll see Vrank or Obi come into the game to foul some of Louisville's poor shooting big men if/when Louisville is in the bonus, which would give our starters another chance to rest and put Obi/Vrank alongside Marshall to collect a defensive rebound after the (hopefully) missed free throw. We can then call a time out if possible to get them back out of the game if we need to.

Anyway, while I think we will most likely see our top 5 guys get all they can handle, I would not be surprised to see Coach K and the staff employ some creative tactics to squeeze as many seconds of rest out of the game as humanly possible.

[moonpie23]

we keep saying that THIS (the next game) is going to be tough for us...well, we still have to play it, and it WILL be tough, especially without matt.


But we were facing the daunting task of beating the holes in chapel hill with matt on the bench, so, the guys have their work cut out for them AGAIN....

these guys got heart and grit...it am what it am...

[kAzE]

I'd just like to point out that Louisville is actulaly the highest rated ACC team on Kenpom (#5). We BARELY eked out a victory on the road in Chapel Hill against UNC (#8). This is not a game that I'm going in expecting to win. Obviously, I'm hoping we do, it's just a very daunting task, especially without Matt to slow down Lee. This won't be the same match up that was played in Durham. Matt was a huge part of our defensive game plan.

[91devil]

Since its unlikely the four "perimeter" players can all go for forty minutes, Marshall and Chase (or Sean or Vrank) will have to be in the game at the same time (our version of the Twin Towers). I think playing zone during the game will help with fatigue, but I think we'll probably have to play MTM when we have two bigs in the game. I'm not sure Chase / Sean / Vrank can effectively play the wing in the 2-3 zone or the 1-3-1 zone (and I certainly wouldn't like any of them on the baseline of the 1-3-1).

Might be interesting to see Chase and his wingspan at the top of the 1-3-1 (Brandon on the baseline?). But I think, in general, when one of the super-subs is in the game, we will be in MTM.

[Lar77]

Call me an optimist, but in the last 3 games, these guys have shown an unreal ability to pull it together as a team. If there is any team in the country (exclude the NBA) that could have a chance against Louisville this Saturday with injuries to two captains, this is the team. These guys are just fun to watch.

If the refs cooperate, we have a chance.

[luburch]

I'm probably going to miss this game . Traveling to to Bloomington to catch IU/Purdue instead. However, the only other game I missed this season resulted in a Duke win. Hoping to keep that streak alive.

[MChambers]

I'd just like to point out that Louisville is actulaly the highest rated ACC team on Kenpom (#5). We BARELY eked out a victory on the road in Chapel Hill against UNC (#8). This is not a game that I'm going in expecting to win. Obviously, I'm hoping we do, it's just a very daunting task, especially without Matt to slow down Lee. This won't be the same match up that was played in Durham. Matt was a huge part of our defensive game plan.

UVa is #2 in KenPom, at least when I use Chrome. But I agree with your basic point. Very tough to beat #5 on the road, in the best of circumstances.

[kAzE]

UVa is #2 in KenPom, at least when I use Chrome. But I agree with your basic point. Very tough to beat #5 on the road, in the best of circumstances.

Wow . . . how did I miss that? I guess my point was that they are better than UNC. It'll be a tough game.

[Doria]

I certainly have tempered expectations for this one, but I do think we're (relatively) fortunate to have played, and won, against them already. Revenge games can be tough to win, assuming you were on the good side of the earlier result; but for our team to have a sense of how they play, and also know we can win, could be a huge factor with a young team. I hope it is, at least.

[CDu]

Since its unlikely the four "perimeter" players can all go for forty minutes, Marshall and Chase (or Sean or Vrank) will have to be in the game at the same time (our version of the Twin Towers). I think playing zone during the game will help with fatigue, but I think we'll probably have to play MTM when we have two bigs in the game. I'm not sure Chase / Sean / Vrank can effectively play the wing in the 2-3 zone or the 1-3-1 zone (and I certainly wouldn't like any of them on the baseline of the 1-3-1).

Might be interesting to see Chase and his wingspan at the top of the 1-3-1 (Brandon on the baseline?). But I think, in general, when one of the super-subs is in the game, we will be in MTM.

Just to be clear, I'm not sure it is true that it is unlikely that our four perimeter guys can all go for 40 minutes. We had 3 of them go for basically all 40 minutes against UNC, who plays at a MUCH faster pace than Louisville. And the fourth played the last 25 minutes or so (whatever was left after Jones went down), and didn't show signs of running out of gas.

It is quite possible that foul trouble could prevent them from being allowed to play all 40 minutes. But unless one gets hurt or gets in foul trouble, I see no reason why they can't (or won't) go all 40 minutes, or VERY close to that.

I'll be surprised if (barring foul trouble or injury or the availability of Jefferson) we see a traditional "two big" look for more than 3-4 minutes of the game.