MBB: Duke vs Virginia (Sat, 2/13/16, 4:30pm ET, ESPN) PreGame and In-Game Thread

[Troublemaker]

Duke has opened as 2-pt favorites over the Hoos

I made a bet on Duke in the Wagering Contest because I suspect Duke will settle in as a 2.5 to 3.5-pt favorite. (Although I'm often wrong).

[Doria]

Yeah, avoiding foul trouble is key, but to me, that really goes under the general heading: we just cannot make mistakes and we need a solid offensive game: We can't commit silly fouls, we can't turn the ball over, we need to hit our 3s (more importantly, we need to generate good looks on all our shots), we need solid switches on defense, etc.

We can absolutely win this game, and at home with good rest/prep time, we really should. But UVA rarely beats themselves. We must go out there and get it done. Really looking forward to this game, albeit with cautious optimism.

(And yeah, I'd kind of like to see a game where Derryck isn't leveled by a halfcourt screen, just for variety's sake.)

[Troublemaker]

Taking into account switches, who do you think we put on Brogden?

One of the things I should've mentioned is that when defending a great player like Brogdon, it really takes a team effort. I believe Matt can chase Brogdon around screens and chase him off the 3-pt line after a flare screen better than 95% of the guards Brogdon will face, but those actions will leave Matt in a vulnerable position for penetration sometimes. MP3 and Brandon (and maybe Amile) will have to have Matt's back and rim-protect in those situations, especially since UVA doesn't have big men that will stretch you out to the 3-pt line. Tobey can hit long 2s? Let him. In general, UVA doesn't shy away from taking midrange 2s and long 2s. If they can hit those efficiently, then you doff your cap. But, as with most modern defenses, you want to protect first and foremost against the open 3 and the easy layup, and we'll need a coordinated team defense to do so.

[Doria]

Thanks to some success in the DBR Hoops Wagering contest, I have reason to believe Lady Luck is on my side right now.

I made a bet on Duke in the Wagering Contest because I suspect Duke will settle in as a 2.5 to 3.5-pt favorite. (Although I'm often wrong).

No, no, no, no. You can't be wrong!

[CameronDuke]

Virginia is my second favorite ACC team behind Duke. I've followed them since the Terry Holland, Jeff Jones, Pete Gillen, and Dave Leitao days. They have come a long way in a short time under Tony Bennett since the awful years of the mid 2000s when the program was pretty bad under Gillen his last few years and then Leitao. Bennett is a star now in my mind in the college hoops world. He seems to be happy at Virginia and has built a program there. Some have suggested he may go back home to Wisconsin where he is from and might take the Wisconsin job but I think he will be at Virginia for a long time. Virginia could always recruit high level players - Majestic Mapp, Chris Williams, Travis Watson, Elton Brown, Todd Billet, Sylven Landesburg, Roger Mason, Sean Singletary, JR Reynolds to name a few. Those guys could all play. Bennett, like others have said, has put Joe Harris and Mike Scott in the NBA. Both were terrific at Virginia. I respect what he has done at Virginia and find him the most likable coach other than Coach K in the league.

I want to see Ingram take over tomorrow. I don't see anyone for Virginia that matches up with him. If he can get the ball at the top of the key and back a smaller defender down, or dribble around a bigger defender and find a shot or pass off the dribble, Duke will have a shot. Gill is a good big man for them but he lacks focus sometimes. However, I think all Virginia players will be ready to go tomorrow. They have played extremely well since almost losing at Wake Forest when they hit a banked in 3 from the corner to win at the buzzer. If that shot doesn't go in, I think their season could have been altered severely for a negative track. It went in though, and I predicted they would win the ACC after it. If you didn't see it, it was a season changing shot and win for them. Since then, they have played the best basketball in the league.

Brogdon is going to be a problem tomorrow. Hopefully, Matty and Grayson can switch up on him and not get too tired by the end of the game. He's in constant motion when he doesn't have the ball and is extremely physical and strong when he brings the ball up. I admire Brogdon's game. Thornton will likely draw Perrantes, who is capable of getting hot from 3 and taking the game over. Tobey is a 7 footer for Virginia that when focused, can bang down low on the glass and get some easy dunks and put backs. If he brings it tomorrow, he could get 4-5 easy layups around the rim. Marshall will need to play like a senior and be ready for some physicality in the paint.

We just need to not panic during double teams and take care of the ball. Getting a clean look against Virginia's defense is tough but not impossible. It would help if Matty and Luke could each hit three 3s to go along with two from Grayson and Ingram. I think we need to hit 10 3s tomorrow to win. If we hit 10 3s while shooting over 40% from deep, I think we win. I'd be surprised to see either team score over 70 points.

[Troublemaker]

Kennard can't be sub-par tomorrow, can't miss shots, make a bad pass, allow the ball even to graze the rim on a free throw, play just 12-15 minutes, as both Grayson and Matt will need a little rest, and we can't count on Derryck for 40 minutes.

The state of Luke's shot is another key for tomorrow. If he's cooking like he was two games ago against NCSU, Duke has a chance to win comfortably.

[Doria]

I think we can realistically neutralize Brogdon in the sense that we neutralized Cat Barber. He's certainly going to get points, but we have to make him work for them and take less than optimal shots, hoping he misses a good percentage.

I also hope for one of those games where Gill is kind of periodically MIA. Conversely, Grayson needs to be involved in a positive manner for the entire game, even if he's getting mugged and even if his shot isn't falling during some stretches.

Perrantes... Man, he's just playing so well. I know his shot is there this season, but I'm more worried about his playmaking abilities. Unlike Barber, Perrantes has teammates he can pass to and reasonably expect them to score.

Very interested to see the defensive sets we run tomorrow. I'm sure Coach K will put together a solid plan. The team just needs to execute it as a team. We've shown we can rebound, for example. Now we need to show we can play very solid team ball for two halves. Go Duke!

[kAzE]

Wow there's a lot of optimism in here. I like our chances at home, but UVA is the best team in the ACC, and the #2 team in the country on KenPom. To win comfortably, a lot of things will have to break our way (Brandon stays out of foul trouble, Luke shoots well, Brogdon stays in check, etc.). That's a lot of "ifs."

I think it will be a tough, grind it out game that will come down to just a few possessions in the end. Both of these teams are playing well right now. I hope Cameron will make it extra difficult for the Cavaliers.

[CDu]

to see the characterizations here of recent Virginia teams, recruiting, and athleticism. Joe Harris, Justin Anderson, and Mike Scott are in the NBA (Harris is hurt and will hopefully catch on somewhere), and I'd like to think Brogdon will be too (though I doubt he'll get it, he deserves serious consideration for ACC POY and even NPOY). Yes, Bennett has turned mid-level recruits into top-shelf/ all-ACC players (Perrantes, Akil Mitchell, Darion Atkins), but that's a testament to either his coaching prowess or his eye for talent. I think the national media buys into the idea that Virginia is a Hoosiers-type collection of only marginally athletic players, but that really overlooks the talent that has been assembled (this talent is looking for its third straight regular season championship and second tournament championship in three years). And, as noted, the incoming class is going to be as strong as the ones who are leaving this year (Brogdon , Tobey, Gill (x-fer), Nolte; Anderson was in that class too but left one year early). So, maybe not one-and-dones, but hardly ragtag overachievers.

They definitely aren't "ragtag overachievers." But what Bennett has done at UVa is consistently get good athletes who weren't top-tier recruits and develop them over time. I mentioned in my post that he has had tremendous success in getting guys in the #50-150 recruit range, and having those guys pan out.

Justin Anderson, for example, was the #48 rated player in his class (2012). He was a freak athlete who didn't have the basketball skills to be near the top of the class. But he went to UVa, bought in, and really improved as a shooter over his time at school, and maximized it with a big junior year. Joe Harris, Mike Scott, and Anthony Gill didn't crack the top-100 of RSCI, but probably weren't too far outside. On the current team, only Evan Nolte (#74 in 2012), Mike Tobey (#92 in 2012), and Malcolm Brogdon (#94 in 2011) cracked the top-100 in RSCI. And none of them were that highly rated.

The talent that UVa does get is better than the talent at a mid-major, but it most certainly hasn't been as highly thought of as the talent that your typical top-5/10 team is targeting. Kansas, UNC, Duke, and Kentucky are recruiting on a different level. Those teams (aside from UNC) are facing much more turnover as a result, whereas UVa is comfortably in the next tier (or two) down on the recruiting ladder but gets those guys to stay and improve over time.

[CDu]

Wow there's a lot of optimism in here. I like our chances at home, but UVA is the best team in the ACC, and the #2 team in the country on KenPom. To win comfortably, a lot of things will have to break our way (Brandon stays out of foul trouble, Luke shoots well, Brogdon stays in check, etc.). That's a lot of "ifs."

I think it will be a tough, grind it out game that will come down to just a few possessions in the end. Both of these teams are playing well right now. I hope Cameron will make it extra difficult for the Cavaliers.

I don't expect a win tomorrow, for the reasons you have listed above regarding UVa. They are VERY good. And they're well-organized on both ends of the court. Every possession is a battle. That being said, because of our potential to shoot the lights out, and because of Ingram as an absolute wild card of a matchup, it would not surprise me at all for us to beat UVa.

If we played them 50 times on a neutral court, I think they'd win 30 with the rosters as it stands. But in a one-game series (especially with that game in Cameron), we certainly can come out on top.

[Hoo in Maryland]

They definitely aren't "ragtag overachievers." But what Bennett has done at UVa is consistently get good athletes who weren't top-tier recruits and develop them over time. I mentioned in my post that he has had tremendous success in getting guys in the #50-150 recruit range, and having those guys pan out.

Justin Anderson, for example, was the #48 rated player in his class (2012). He was a freak athlete who didn't have the basketball skills to be near the top of the class. But he went to UVa, bought in, and really improved as a shooter over his time at school, and maximized it with a big junior year. Joe Harris, Mike Scott, and Anthony Gill didn't crack the top-100 of RSCI, but probably weren't too far outside. On the current team, only Evan Nolte (#74 in 2012), Mike Tobey (#92 in 2012), and Malcolm Brogdon (#94 in 2011) cracked the top-100 in RSCI. And none of them were that highly rated.

The talent that UVa does get is better than the talent at a mid-major, but it most certainly hasn't been as highly thought of as the talent that your typical top-5/10 team is targeting. Kansas, UNC, Duke, and Kentucky are recruiting on a different level. Those teams (aside from UNC) are facing much more turnover as a result, whereas UVa is comfortably in the next tier (or two) down on the recruiting ladder but gets those guys to stay and improve over time.

All that is true, but the fact that there are more than 100 players "ranked" ahead of guys making the NBA should make you consider whether those rankings have any basis in reality. I understand that they're just a prediction, but they are also a self-fulfilling prophesy. I'm not convinced that Justin Anderson was less talented than 47 guys in his class; just that he was regarded as such by certain people. As a result, I'm not convinced that the Virginia roster was less talented on day 1 than the vast majority of other schools. Either way, Bennett is either an exceptionally good talent evaluator or skills developer. Probably a healthy combination of both. And, what doesn't get mentioned, and what probably doesn't figure much into the rankings, is that Bennett doesn't seem to go after (or at least give playing time to) guys who aren't willing to commit to playing defense.

[vick]

to see the characterizations here of recent Virginia teams, recruiting, and athleticism. Joe Harris, Justin Anderson, and Mike Scott are in the NBA (Harris is hurt and will hopefully catch on somewhere), and I'd like to think Brogdon will be too (though I doubt he'll get it, he deserves serious consideration for ACC POY and even NPOY). Yes, Bennett has turned mid-level recruits into top-shelf/ all-ACC players (Perrantes, Akil Mitchell, Darion Atkins), but that's a testament to either his coaching prowess or his eye for talent. I think the national media buys into the idea that Virginia is a Hoosiers-type collection of only marginally athletic players, but that really overlooks the talent that has been assembled (this talent is looking for its third straight regular season championship and second tournament championship in three years). And, as noted, the incoming class is going to be as strong as the ones who are leaving this year (Brogdon , Tobey, Gill (x-fer), Nolte; Anderson was in that class too but left one year early). So, maybe not one-and-dones, but hardly ragtag overachievers.

I think this year he'll get the serious consideration he's deserved previously. Certainly UNC's slide isn't helping Johnson (nor is Johnson's slide helping UNC!), and Barber's weak team will cost him votes (sorry State fans, but he's not anywhere near as valuable on offense as Erick Green was). Grayson strikes me as the only other player with a viable case right now, but it feels pretty close between them, and given the choice of a fifth-year senior and defensive stalwart, I bet Malcolm would get lots of votes. Still tons of ball to be played and things can change, of course.

[DarkstarWahoo]

I want to see Ingram take over tomorrow. I don't see anyone for Virginia that matches up with him. If he can get the ball at the top of the key and back a smaller defender down, or dribble around a bigger defender and find a shot or pass off the dribble, Duke will have a shot. Gill is a good big man for them but he lacks focus sometimes. However, I think all Virginia players will be ready to go tomorrow. They have played extremely well since almost losing at Wake Forest when they hit a banked in 3 from the corner to win at the buzzer. If that shot doesn't go in, I think their season could have been altered severely for a negative track. It went in though, and I predicted they would win the ACC after it. If you didn't see it, it was a season changing shot and win for them. Since then, they have played the best basketball in the league.

Brogdon is going to be a problem tomorrow. Hopefully, Matty and Grayson can switch up on him and not get too tired by the end of the game. He's in constant motion when he doesn't have the ball and is extremely physical and strong when he brings the ball up. I admire Brogdon's game. Thornton will likely draw Perrantes, who is capable of getting hot from 3 and taking the game over. Tobey is a 7 footer for Virginia that when focused, can bang down low on the glass and get some easy dunks and put backs. If he brings it tomorrow, he could get 4-5 easy layups around the rim. Marshall will need to play like a senior and be ready for some physicality in the paint.

Ingram is going to be a problem. He will probably get that smaller defender, since Isaiah Wilkins will probably draw him to start. And he can be taken to the rim, although he's got the athleticism to stay in front.

The Brogdon-Allen matchup will be one to watch. The upper hand might be determined by how much energy each expends guarding the other. Brogdon has the edge in strength, but he'll be chasing Allen around screens all game long. I'm not sure I expect him to play quite as well as he has recently, when he has been THAT DUDE. He'll get points, but it might be a 4-17, 14 points kind of game, which he's prone to. If it's like that and not the hyperefficient games he's been having, they'll need a big game from Perrantes or someone unexpected.

[CDu]

All that is true, but the fact that there are more than 100 players "ranked" ahead of guys making the NBA should make you consider whether those rankings have any basis in reality. I understand that they're just a prediction, but they are also a self-fulfilling prophesy. I'm not convinced that Justin Anderson was less talented than 47 guys in his class; just that he was regarded as such by certain people. As a result, I'm not convinced that the Virginia roster was less talented on day 1 than the vast majority of other schools. Either way, Bennett is either an exceptionally good talent evaluator or skills developer. Probably a healthy combination of both. And, what doesn't get mentioned, and what probably doesn't figure much into the rankings, is that Bennett doesn't seem to go after (or at least give playing time to) guys who aren't willing to commit to playing defense.

I think Anderson's ranking was about right. He was a freakish athlete with no basketball skills coming into college. Heck, I might STILL argue he's about the 47th best player in that class. He just happened to have a monster start to his junior year, and parlayed that into a draft pick. There are at least 20 other guys from that class in the NBA as well (not including Isaiah Austin who had to retire before he got drafted), and another 15-20 still in school that should play in the NBA. Similar story for Joe Harris and Mike Scott, who were in over their heads as freshmen. Heck, Brogdon didn't even play as a freshman due to redshirting, so it's hard to know if he was rated properly or not.

But yes, Bennett has done a pretty good job of identifying talent on the next tier and developing it. He always seems to have a couple of guys "click" in each of his last several seasons. First it was Sylven Landesburg and Mike Scott. Then Joe Harris joined Scott replacing Landesburg. Then Akil Mitchell joined Harris replacing Scott. Then Gill and Atkins replaced Mitchell and Brogdon joined Harris. Then Anderson replaced Harris. They haven't exactly replaced Atkins and Anderson, but Perrantes has stepped up at PG and they have enough depth everywhere to make up for Atkins. And the rest of the nation is in a bit of a down year.

So he pretty much has found a way to make 1 or 2 guys stick out of a mid-tier recruiting class of 3 or 4 guys. That is a pretty good hit rate. And now he'll be sprinkling in some upper-tier talent (Nichols was a top-20 recruit before transferring to UVa). If he can keep those guys for 3-4 years too, he'll really have something.

[CDu]

Ingram is going to be a problem. He will probably get that smaller defender, since Isaiah Wilkins will probably draw him to start. And he can be taken to the rim, although he's got the athleticism to stay in front.

The Brogdon-Allen matchup will be one to watch. The upper hand might be determined by how much energy each expends guarding the other. Brogdon has the edge in strength, but he'll be chasing Allen around screens all game long. I'm not sure I expect him to play quite as well as he has recently, when he has been THAT DUDE. He'll get points, but it might be a 4-17, 14 points kind of game, which he's prone to. If it's like that and not the hyperefficient games he's been having, they'll need a big game from Perrantes or someone unexpected.

I would expect Duke to put Matt Jones on Brogdon rather than Allen. We'll probably put Allen on Hall/Thompson/Shayok. I think that Coach K will try to conserve Allen's energy for offense and utilize our best perimeter defender (Jones) for what he does best.

It will be interesting though when Duke has Ingram, Allen, and Kennard on the floor together. That's a dynamic trio of playmakers from the perimeter. If those guys are hitting shots, it will be VERY tough on UVa. If the 3s aren't falling, though, it could be a VERY tough game for Duke to win.

[Bob Green]

The Brogdon-Allen matchup will be one to watch.

Duke switches on defense so Allen will certainly end up guarding Brogdon at times, but the primary assignment will belong to Matt Jones.

[Billy Dat]

Maybe Virginia's run of success under Bennett is starting to have the recruiting impact that other top programs have, once they start getting recruited by Program X, their recruiting ranking suddenly spikes. I don't think it's so much Bennett's keen eye, it's the impact of the program he's built.

With success comes scrutiny. UVA is really good now, and the rep is "4 year guys who run a system". Sometimes they are even called "average athletically". Maybe someday the rep will be, "Overlooked studs who Pretty Tony recognized before everyone else and who selflessly mute their talents for the sake of the team, a model for all to emulate as they decimate with their vaunted pack-line, and who, tempered in that most high functioning of environments are set loose on the NBA where their amazing fundamentals and team sense augment outstanding athleticism that was just waiting to be uncorked like a fine wine placing them on the short list of every NBA scouting department for surely they are future key cogs of NBA title teams".

If being Duke fans has taught us anything, it's that no one will ever perceive you exactly the way you wish to be perceived. You know what is a great salve for that - winning. As long as you're winning, let people say what they want.

Speaking of winning, I hope Duke wins tomorrow. It is kind of amazing that despite our fairly weak resume and not being ranked, we are still 12th in Ken Pom. I know our offense is good, but I guess it comes down to not scheduling, and losing, to any really weak teams.

[jhmoss1812]

As always, great insight and analysis regarding UVA and the game tomorrow. I am not surprised at all to see Duke favored in this game. We haven't won in Cameron since 1995 and we've had some road struggles this year. Combine that with the fact that Duke is a talented and well-coached team and it's hard to see how anyone would ever be favored there. With that said, this is the most confident I've felt about UVA winning in Cameron since I've been a UVA fan (2000). That doesn't mean I'm confident we're going to win the game. I'm just more confident that I've been in the past.

Fortunately, I also don't feel like this is a make or break game for UVA at all. We have one of the best resumes in the country when it comes to wins (4-0 vs. RPI top 25, 8-2 vs. RPI top 50 and 11-3 vs. RPI top 100). A loss to a RPI top 20 team on the road isn't going to be that damaging. But it's a great opportunity for another big win for this team and would go a long way in securing a double bye in the ACC tourney and a top seed in the NCAA tourney.

As has been mentioned by others in this thread, I see Ingram being a huge matchup problem for us (who isn't he a matchup problem for though?). I think Brogdon will cover Allen for the majority of defensive sequences unless he picks up some early fouls. Defending Grayson is such a difficult assignment even for a great defender like Brogdon. I think we'll throw Wilkins at Ingram for the most part and then put Shayok and Nolte on him when Wilkins is getting a breather. On offense, I think we'll get solid contributions from at least two of Brogdon, Perrantes and Gill. When we've been most effective is when someone else steps up, whether it be Thompson (in the non-conference), Hall, Shayok, Wilkins, or Tobey. None of those guys have really shined consistently outside of JPJ though. If one of them can be a calming influence for us and hit some open jumpers, that would go a long way in getting out of Cameron with a win.

Both teams play with great tenacity and have strong competitive spirits so I can't imagine this game getting out of hand either way. If I had to make a prediction, I'll say that Duke gets a big win at home winning 68-65. I'm looking forward to it!

[BobBender]

Maybe Virginia's run of success under Bennett is starting to have the recruiting impact that other top programs have, once they start getting recruited by Program X, their recruiting ranking suddenly spikes. I don't think it's so much Bennett's keen eye, it's the impact of the program he's built.

With success comes scrutiny. UVA is really good now, and the rep is "4 year guys who run a system". Sometimes they are even called "average athletically". Maybe someday the rep will be, "Overlooked studs who Pretty Tony recognized before everyone else and who selflessly mute their talents for the sake of the team, a model for all to emulate as they decimate with their vaunted pack-line, and who, tempered in that most high functioning of environments are set loose on the NBA where their amazing fundamentals and team sense augment outstanding athleticism that was just waiting to be uncorked like a fine wine placing them on the short list of every NBA scouting department for surely they are future key cogs of NBA title teams".

If being Duke fans has taught us anything, it's that no one will ever perceive you exactly the way you wish to be perceived. You know what is a great salve for that - winning. As long as you're winning, let people say what they want.

Speaking of winning, I hope Duke wins tomorrow. It is kind of amazing that despite our fairly weak resume and not being ranked, we are still 12th in Ken Pom. I know our offense is good, but I guess it comes down to not scheduling, and losing, to any really weak teams.

Mostly agree, but that last sentence would be something I'd differ on. Let's be honest with ourselves about scheduling. Our "road games" in November/December are pretty much in MSG, NJ, or Chicago in NBA arenas with a strong Duke crowd. The only real road games we play are the ACC/Big10 thing, every other year. The parade of Yale, Army et al marching into Cameron is not exactly fearless scheduling.

[BigWayne]

Apparently Dickie V will be on the broadcast team tomorrow. He posted he is at the Washington Duke Inn and Golf Club to get ready for the game.