MBB: Duke at Miami, Jan 25 7pm ESPN

[CDu]

Better late than never. Post here.

[Troublemaker]

Thank you, CDu.

[Troublemaker]

So, I would expect another 40 minutes of zone tonight.

Coach K pretty much told us in the NCSU postgame presser that he had spent the 4 days between Syracuse and NCSU fashioning that zone for use against NCSU and Miami. After tonight, Duke has a bye week, and Coach and the staff can re-evaluate where things stand defensively. At some point, Amile's return will factor in as well.

[Troublemaker]

Will the zone work against Miami?

Potentially.

(1) In ACC games, Miami is only shooting 27% from three.
(2) Miami ranks 12th in the conference in assist percentage, which maybe means they won't have brilliant passers to pick apart the zone.
(3) I can't identify someone on their roster that I would fear operating out of the high post.

I think zone is a solid choice against the Hurricanes.

I also expect Duke to play it better this second time around.

[CameronDuke]

I watched Miami against Virginia earlier this year and think Duke is better than Miami. As long as we stay out of foul trouble (Marshall and Ingram particularly), I'm not worried about this game. The line favors Miami by 3.5, but I think Duke takes this one. Miami didn't impress me that much. They will have a hard time keeping up with Allen, have no one to guard Ingram, and if Luke and Matt start shooting for a higher percentage from 3, I think Duke could actually win by 8+ points. Gotta rebound and keep them off the offensive boards and also stay out of foul trouble.

[Troublemaker]

I watched Miami against Virginia earlier this year and think Duke is better than Miami. As long as we stay out of foul trouble (Marshall and Ingram particularly), I'm not worried about this game. The line favors Miami by 3.5, but I think Duke takes this one. Miami didn't impress me that much. They will have a hard time keeping up with Allen, have no one to guard Ingram, and if Luke and Matt start shooting for a higher percentage from 3, I think Duke could actually win by 8+ points. Gotta rebound and keep them off the offensive boards and also stay out of foul trouble.

I more or less agree with you except for the bold. Miami has very good perimeter defenders who might be able to stop Grayson from driving. Either that, or Grayson is even better than I think if he dominates again. All of Duke's drivers tonight need to be on the alert for Miami's guards and wings in help position stepping in to take the charge. It would be nice if Brandon has a great game tonight taking advantage of his mismatch against Miami's PFs because Grayson's production might not be there.

[Billy Dat]

As long as we stay out of foul trouble (Marshall and Ingram particularly), I'm not worried about this game. The line favors Miami by 3.5, but I think Duke takes this one. Miami didn't impress me that much. They will have a hard time keeping up with Allen, have no one to guard Ingram, and if Luke and Matt start shooting for a higher percentage from 3, I think Duke could actually win by 8+ points. Gotta rebound and keep them off the offensive boards and also stay out of foul trouble.

I wish I had your confidence. Your post contains a lot of assumptions that I fear will be tough to all come to fruition:

-If we stay out of foul trouble
-If Luke and Matt shoot better
-If we rebound well and keep them off the offensive glass

I'll add, if we, out of the zone formation, can keep Rodriguez and McClellan out of the lane.

Bottom line, this is the first game of the year that I think we enter as a decided underdog. If we win, it will be our biggest win of the year, by far. I think the guys can get it done, but we need nearly everything to go right for us to pull it off.

[FerryFor50]

I wish I had your confidence. Your post contains a lot of assumptions that I fear will be tough to all come to fruition:

-If we stay out of foul trouble
-If Luke and Matt shoot better
-If we rebound well and keep them off the offensive glass

I'll add, if we, out of the zone formation, can keep Rodriguez and McClellan out of the lane.

Bottom line, this is the first game of the year that I think we enter as a decided underdog. If we win, it will be our biggest win of the year, by far. I think the guys can get it done, but we need nearly everything to go right for us to pull it off.

I think if the zone was able to contain Barber, it will definitely be able to contain Rodriguez. McClellan, on the other hand, will be tougher, as he's stronger than both.

I fully expect Angel Rodriguez to play way over his head again like last year (perimeter shooting, that is):

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/...1-13-duke.html

Because that's what marginal players do against Duke. Davon Reed will also probably go bonkers.

I worry about Jekiri going all Larry Nnoko on us.

But if Duke can play with the offensive efficiency they have all year, they can win the game. Just can't afford another clunker like Syracuse.

[Lar77]

I think if the zone was able to contain Barber, it will definitely be able to contain Rodriguez. McClellan, on the other hand, will be tougher, as he's stronger than both.

I fully expect Angel Rodriguez to play way over his head again like last year (perimeter shooting, that is):

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/...1-13-duke.html

Because that's what marginal players do against Duke. Davon Reed will also probably go bonkers.

I worry about Jekiri going all Larry Nnoko on us.

But if Duke can play with the offensive efficiency they have all year, they can win the game. Just can't afford another clunker like Syracuse.

As I look through both teams, the one differentiation is Brandon.

Miami is good and Larranaga is a very good coach. If they shoot lights out from 3 and we can't find the ocean from a rowboat, then we lose. I'm looking for a good offensive game from Brandon, Luke and Grayson. Plums will offset Jakiri. We win a close one.

[FerryFor50]

As I look through both teams, the one differentiation is Brandon.

Miami is good and Larranaga is a very good coach. If they shoot lights out from 3 and we can't find the ocean from a rowboat, then we lose. I'm looking for a good offensive game from Brandon, Luke and Grayson. Plums will offset Jakiri. We win a close one.

Problem is, Plums didn't offset Nnoko against Clemson.

Nnoko went for 12 pts, 13 boards (5 offensive), 4 blocks. Plumlee went for 9 pts, 7 boards, 1 block.

Jekiri is similarly built to Nnoko but Jekiri is taller and a better rebounder than Nnoko.

[Troublemaker]

I'm a little worried about Uceda (50% from three on the season) against the zone when Miami plays him as their stretch-4.

Hopefully he'll miss a few and/or Brandon makes him pay on the other end to balance out.

[Troublemaker]

Miami isn't a great offensive rebounding team so that will help. Although NCSU is a great one, but Duke did well rebounding against them. These things aren't completely predictable, and some of it depends on luck of the bounce off the glass.

[BoiseDevil]

I'll submit my wishful thinking as a prediction:

1- Thornton shows poise in 5 asst 1 to outing
2- Plumlee continues dbl dbl play
3- jones/kennard shoot 40% from 3
4- Ingram and Allen show end-of-game maturity...

And Duke wins by 7, 79-72

Jeter adds 8 foul-free minutes with (4pts, 5rbs) this one is too wishful to make the list..

[FerryFor50]

I'll submit my wishful thinking as a prediction:

1- Thornton shows poise in 5 asst 1 to outing
2- Plumlee continues dbl dbl play
3- jones/kennard shoot 40% from 3
4- Ingram and Allen show end-of-game maturity...

And Duke wins by 7, 79-72

Jeter adds 8 foul-free minutes with (4pts, 5rbs) this one is too wishful to make the list..

lol

You had me until "Jeter adds 8 foul free minutes"

For Chase to even smell the floor, Plumlee (and maybe even Obi) would need to be in foul trouble. And even then, Jeter wouldn't be able to go without committing a foul unless he just moved out of the way every time his man tried to score.

[CDu]

Miami is an interesting team. They have gobs of talent, but consistency is a real problem for them. Which is strange, given that Larranega is such a good coach. But for whatever reason, they just don't always show up.

PG: Angel Rodriguez is probably the biggest reason for the Canes' inconsistency. The dude can play. But for whatever reason, he has some unbelievable peaks and valleys. We saw one of his peaks last year in the game against us. But he'll just as frequently it seems he throws out a complete clunker (1-9, 3 pts against Syracuse; 1-7, 3 pts against Clemson). He is small and not exceptionally quick/fast (not slow by any means, but not a burner like Cat Barber, Demetrius Jackson, or Tyler Ulis. Instead, he's more moxy and guile (and strength) than explosive athleticism. Sometimes, though, that doesn't translate for him. He has interestingly gotten worse and worse from 3pt range in his career (34% as a freshman, down to 28% this year). The other PG on the roster is sophomore Ja'Quan Newton. Newton is a terrific athlete somewhat reminiscent of Nolan Smith. He's more combo guard than PG, but does fine at PG. Newton can shoot and can attack the basket very well. If he stays around, he'll be a handful (he's already a pretty prolific scorer in somewhat limited minutes).

Wings: Here is the staple of the Hurricanes' team. They seemingly have an unending supply of long, athletic wings. This year is no exception. Sheldon McLellan is a terrific scorer, both as a catch-and-shoot, a face-up shooter, and a driver. He, too, can be streaky, which doesn't help with a PG as streaky as Rodriguez. But when he is on he's about as tough as anybody in the ACC. Alongside him, Davon Reed is a freak athlete with up-and-down skills. He is a VERY streaky shooter (stop me if you've heard that before) but questionable decisionmaker at times. Freshman Lawrence and sophomore Palmer fit a similar profile, but play sparingly behind the starters.

PF: This is an area of weakness for the Canes. Seniors Murphy and Cruz Uceda are the primary options at PF. But neither is a consistent presence. Murphy is the blue-collar guy, sort of a poor-man's Amile Jefferson. He rebounds and defends, but doesn't score a lot and can't shoot. Cruz Uceda is like a poor-man's Ryan Kelly. A 6'10" player who LOVES to shoot 3s (they make up more than 2/3 of his field goal attempts) but isn't much of a rebounder. He's not nearly as good a defender as Kelly, though he might be as good a pure shooter (if not better, though not nearly as versatile). These two play about 40 mpg combined, but Miami is not afraid to go small with Reed at PF for 5-10 mpg.

C: Tonye Jekiri is a big dude and has quite a few similarities to Marshall Plumlee. He's 7'0", 245, but not very coordinated. Like Plumlee, he is a solid defender, shotblocker, and rebounder (actually a better rebounder than Plumlee). Like Plumlee, his offensive game is predominantly catching and finishing dunk attempts, and generally doesn't look great on shots away from the rim. And, like Plumlee, Jekiri is asked to play nearly the entire game (he's averaging over 30 mpg in ACC play). This will be an interesting matchup only in that neither Jekiri or Plumlee are go-to offensive guys, but their production often tells how well the guards are doing their jobs.

Miami is an oddity; a well-coached team that often makes bad decisions on the floor. They are extremely athletic but extremely streaky. If we do go zone against them (and I suspect we will, we can't lose track of Cruz Uceda, McLellan, or Newton. And we have to hope that Reed and Rodriguez don't get hot. And if their guards do get into the lane, we can't lose track of Jekiri. They don't present a huge matchup problem for Ingram if we do go man-to-man, but given Miami's athletes and driving ability and given our lack of depth I think it makes sense to go zone.

[devildeac]

lol

You had me until "Jeter adds 8 foul free minutes"

For Chase to even smell the floor, Plumlee (and maybe even Obi) would need to be in foul trouble. And even then, Jeter wouldn't be able to go without committing a foul unless he just moved out of the way every time his man tried to score.

And, even if he were to be in another zip code while/after moving out of the way, one of the refs would still find a way to whistle him for some phantom phoul, despite any profane courtside outburst K might deliver, or FFor50 or I would have in DBR chat .

[FerryFor50]

And, even if he were to be in another zip code while/after moving out of the way, one of the refs would still find a way to whistle him for some phantom phoul, despite any profane courtside outburst K might deliver, or FFor50 or I would have in DBR chat .

It's hard for me to get too angry when Jeter gets whistled, because in all likelihood, he committed the foul.

[devildeac]

It's hard for me to get too angry when Jeter gets whistled, because in all likelihood, he committed the foul.

Yea, sad but true on that one .

[79-77]

I wish I had your confidence. Your post contains a lot of assumptions that I fear will be tough to all come to fruition:

-If we stay out of foul trouble
-If Luke and Matt shoot better
-If we rebound well and keep them off the offensive glass

I'll add, if we, out of the zone formation, can keep Rodriguez and McClellan out of the lane.

Bottom line, this is the first game of the year that I think we enter as a decided underdog. If we win, it will be our biggest win of the year, by far. I think the guys can get it done, but we need nearly everything to go right for us to pull it off.

Good post. I agree with all of this and would just add that it seems like for this year's Duke team to beat a decent-to-good opponent, 2 out of Ingram, Allen and Kennard need to have great (or at least near-great) games. There just isn't enough scoring depth or defense for those 3 to be merely "good."

Now, all 3 are capable of doing so, but consistent production at that level is a lot to ask.

Problem is, Plums didn't offset Nnoko against Clemson.

Nnoko went for 12 pts, 13 boards (5 offensive), 4 blocks. Plumlee went for 9 pts, 7 boards, 1 block.

Jekiri is similarly built to Nnoko but Jekiri is taller and a better rebounder than Nnoko.

I too have been hoping for a bit more out of Plumlee on the defensive end (and I say that as someone who is thrilled with the senior season he's been having). There have been flashes, but there hasn't been a game in which he has dominated the defensive paint with ferocity and consistency.

Miami is an interesting team. They have gobs of talent, but consistency is a real problem for them. Which is strange, given that Larranega is such a good coach. But for whatever reason, they just don't always show up.

PG: Angel Rodriguez is probably the biggest reason for the Canes' inconsistency. The dude can play. But for whatever reason, he has some unbelievable peaks and valleys. We saw one of his peaks last year in the game against us. But he'll just as frequently it seems he throws out a complete clunker (1-9, 3 pts against Syracuse; 1-7, 3 pts against Clemson). He is small and not exceptionally quick/fast (not slow by any means, but not a burner like Cat Barber, Demetrius Jackson, or Tyler Ulis. Instead, he's more moxy and guile (and strength) than explosive athleticism. Sometimes, though, that doesn't translate for him. He has interestingly gotten worse and worse from 3pt range in his career (34% as a freshman, down to 28% this year). The other PG on the roster is sophomore Ja'Quan Newton. Newton is a terrific athlete somewhat reminiscent of Nolan Smith. He's more combo guard than PG, but does fine at PG. Newton can shoot and can attack the basket very well. If he stays around, he'll be a handful (he's already a pretty prolific scorer in somewhat limited minutes).

Wings: Here is the staple of the Hurricanes' team. They seemingly have an unending supply of long, athletic wings. This year is no exception. Sheldon McLellan is a terrific scorer, both as a catch-and-shoot, a face-up shooter, and a driver. He, too, can be streaky, which doesn't help with a PG as streaky as Rodriguez. But when he is on he's about as tough as anybody in the ACC. Alongside him, Davon Reed is a freak athlete with up-and-down skills. He is a VERY streaky shooter (stop me if you've heard that before) but questionable decisionmaker at times. Freshman Lawrence and sophomore Palmer fit a similar profile, but play sparingly behind the starters.

PF: This is an area of weakness for the Canes. Seniors Murphy and Cruz Uceda are the primary options at PF. But neither is a consistent presence. Murphy is the blue-collar guy, sort of a poor-man's Amile Jefferson. He rebounds and defends, but doesn't score a lot and can't shoot. Cruz Uceda is like a poor-man's Ryan Kelly. A 6'10" player who LOVES to shoot 3s (they make up more than 2/3 of his field goal attempts) but isn't much of a rebounder. He's not nearly as good a defender as Kelly, though he might be as good a pure shooter (if not better, though not nearly as versatile). These two play about 40 mpg combined, but Miami is not afraid to go small with Reed at PF for 5-10 mpg.

C: Tonye Jekiri is a big dude and has quite a few similarities to Marshall Plumlee. He's 7'0", 245, but not very coordinated. Like Plumlee, he is a solid defender, shotblocker, and rebounder (actually a better rebounder than Plumlee). Like Plumlee, his offensive game is predominantly catching and finishing dunk attempts, and generally doesn't look great on shots away from the rim. And, like Plumlee, Jekiri is asked to play nearly the entire game (he's averaging over 30 mpg in ACC play). This will be an interesting matchup only in that neither Jekiri or Plumlee are go-to offensive guys, but their production often tells how well the guards are doing their jobs.

Miami is an oddity; a well-coached team that often makes bad decisions on the floor. They are extremely athletic but extremely streaky. If we do go zone against them (and I suspect we will, we can't lose track of Cruz Uceda, McLellan, or Newton. And we have to hope that Reed and Rodriguez don't get hot. And if their guards do get into the lane, we can't lose track of Jekiri. They don't present a huge matchup problem for Ingram if we do go man-to-man, but given Miami's athletes and driving ability and given our lack of depth I think it makes sense to go zone.

Great scouting report. Thanks.

[FerryFor50]

Good post. I agree with all of this and would just add that it seems like for this year's Duke team to beat a decent-to-good opponent, 2 out of Ingram, Allen and Kennard need to have great (or at least near-great) games. There just isn't enough scoring depth or defense for those 3 to be merely "good."

Now, all 3 are capable of doing so, but consistent production at that level is a lot to ask.



I too have been hoping for a bit more out of Plumlee on the defensive end (and I say that as someone who is thrilled with the senior season he's been having). There have been flashes, but there hasn't been a game in which he has dominated the defensive paint with ferocity and consistency.



Great scouting report. Thanks.

I think part of it is that he *has* to stay out of foul trouble. So he can't be overly aggressive on defense.

When Amile returns, I think we'll see a better effort on the defensive end from Plumlee, since he has more freedom to roam.