MBB: Duke vs. Kentucky (Nov 17, 7:30 pm, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[JBDuke]

Duke (#4/#5) and Kentucky (#1/#2) square off in Chicago's United Center on Tuesday, November 17th at 7:30 pm ET on ESPN. And, no, this is not about barbecue.

Much more to come on this game over the next couple of days.

[weezie]

Holy moly, I'm clearing my busy social calendar.

[JNort]

So to me the biggest question is this... how are minutes going to be distributed and how big/small do we play?

[blynch923]

Tuesday will definitely be a good test to see if Grayson can live up to all of the hype

[OldPhiKap]

Good early measuring stick. Although, either way, says little about where we will be in March. This team is so young/inexperienced it is amazing. Enjoy the ride, regardless of the result. Will be a fun journey.

[Tripping William]

Tuesday will definitely be a good test to see if Grayson can live up to all of the hype

Hopefully the post-game thread will be a nice discussion of Allen & Sons.

[Olympic Fan]

Ugh ... Allen and Sons is the just about the worst 'que in the Triangle. Horribly overrated and overpriced. Only in Chapel Hill could that dump be considered good 'que.

As for Duke-Kentucky on the basketball court ... FWIW, Pomeroy rates it a 50 percent game, but projects a 77-76 Duke win. I'd take it.

No. 1 Duke and No. 2 Kentucky are his two top teams early.

[jimsumner]

Ugh ... Allen and Sons is the just about the worst 'que in the Triangle. Horribly overrated and overpriced. Only in Chapel Hill could that dump be considered good 'que.

As for Duke-Kentucky on the basketball court ... FWIW, Pomeroy rates it a 50 percent game, but projects a 77-76 Duke win. I'd take it.

No. 1 Duke and No. 2 Kentucky are his two top teams early.

I thought it a sly reference to Grayson Allen's last name not a barbeque joint.

Then again, I don't partake of 'que, so what do I know?

[devildeac]

I thought it a sly reference to Grayson Allen's last name not a barbeque joint.

Then again, I don't partake of 'que, so what do I know?

What the hey? No 'cue?!?!

300px-Flag_of_the_Soviet_Union.svg.png

(kidding, kidding)

[Troublemaker]

A couple things that might tip the balance towards Duke:

A 100% Matt Jones that shuts down either Ulis or Murray would go a long way towards victory. Hoping Matt can play 35 minutes on Tuesday if needed.

Kentucky's been turning the ball over at a high rate so far, and Duke looks like a team that can force turnovers this year. Likewise, Amile and Marshall might be able to out-muscle Skal and Lee on the boards. Some "extra" possessions via turnover or o-boarding could swing a close game.

[Steven43]

A couple things that might tip the balance towards Duke:

A 100% Matt Jones that shuts down either Ulis or Murray would go a long way towards victory. Hoping Matt can play 35 minutes on Tuesday if needed.

Kentucky's been turning the ball over at a high rate so far, and Duke looks like a team that can force turnovers this year. Likewise, Amile and Marshall might be able to out-muscle Skal and Lee on the boards. Some "extra" possessions via turnover or o-boarding could swing a close game.

Umm, you are going to be disappointed if you think Matt Jones has the quickness to stay with Tyler Ulis.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Good luck tonight in a big game.

This will be the first chance for me to see both teams this season. I'm particularly interested in seeing Ingram for the first time and the Murray kid and Skal L. from KY that everyone seems to be so high on.

[Troublemaker]

Umm, you are going to be disappointed if you think Matt Jones has the quickness to stay with Tyler Ulis.

Perhaps, but I do believe that a healthy Matt Jones is a great, savvy defender and may be able to figure some things out to defend effectively even when facing a quickness deficit.

Being of nimble mind, Matt might not think of playing defense solely in terms of staying in front of the ball-handler, for example. He might think to deny him the ball in the first place.

Coach K, also being of nimble mind, might think to help Matt with this task (if he's even assigned to Ulis) by implementing a soft zone press + trap in the backcourt so that Ulis has to give the ball up. From there, it'd be up to Matt to play denial defense on Ulis for the rest of the possession.

[COYS]

Being of nimble mind, Matt might not think of playing defense solely in terms of staying in front of the ball-handler, for example. He might think to deny him the ball in the first place.

A quick aside, Duke had had teams that were phenomenal at this in the past. We often don't think of the 2008 team as a great Duke team, but it overcame a serious size deficit (Freshman Songlet played C for many of the minutes) to be a top 10 defensive team (according to KenPom) by denying entry passes into the post with impressive tenacity. In fact, that team was ultimately undone not by a big team that out muscled them, but a team in WVU that beat them at their own game by playing small ball.

I say all this to support your idea that a savvy MATT Jones who forces Murray to work to get the ball and if he does get it, to leave him with more work to do before he can score would be an extremely effective defender. A skilled offensive player will score against the best defenders. Better to minimize his overall chances.

[Tucknut]

Oh, joy. Didn't really need to see Seth Greenburg tonight but oh well..

[lotusland]

What the hey? No 'cue?!?!

300px-Flag_of_the_Soviet_Union.svg.png

(kidding, kidding)

Yeah Jim Sumner's judgment now downgraded.

[Troublemaker]

Kentucky's been turning the ball over at a high rate so far, and Duke looks like a team that can force turnovers this year. Likewise, Amile and Marshall might be able to out-muscle Skal and Lee on the boards. Some "extra" possessions via turnover or o-boarding could swing a close game.

Expanding on these thoughts a bit.

I think Duke's going to steal a win tomorrow night. I have a lot of respect for Kentucky's talent, and I would've voted them preseason #1 as well. They have a very good to great college PG in Ulis and he'll be getting the ball to two top-6 lottery picks in Skal and Murray, according to NBADraft.net and DraftExpress. So, UK is looking fantastic at their PG and C positions, the two most important positions, with Ulis and Skal, and they additionally have a high-scoring wing in Murray, who can also play point. Duke has great wings in Grayson and Brandon, but Kentucky should receive better PG and C play this season than Duke. That's no knock on our guys, as I believe Duke's PG-by-committee and MP3/Chase platoon will function well, but it's tough to say Kentucky doesn't project to be better at those two crucial positions this season. Therefore, if Calipari does a good developing his team, they should be better than Duke in March.

But Duke is playing them tomorrow, Nov 17, not in March (at least not yet). Duke teams usually burst from the starting gate really fast and dominate in November and December, and I've seen no reason through two games to think it will be different this season. In contrast, I believe if UK coughed up 20 turnovers to Albany and 14 turnovers to NJIT, then Duke's going to be able to turn them over tomorrow night. Later on this season, UK will probably protect the ball very well since they will at times play 3 PGs together in Ulis, Murray, and Briscoe, but we might be catching them at a good time right now. Likewise, Skal is going to be a top-3 pick, but in his first encounter with muscular, experienced, high-major big men in Amile and MP3, Duke might be able to take advantage of Skal on the boards.

Finally, small sample, but Duke appears to be a more vet-centered team at this time. Kentucky's top 2 scorers and 3 of their top-4 are freshmen. Whereas vets make up 3 of the top-4 Duke scorers. I think being slightly more vet-centered will help in the third game of the season for both teams.

So, overall, UK may be the better team a few months from now, but Duke should be the better team tomorrow. A win over UK tomorrow is going to look great on the tournament resume once UK puts everything together. A victory tomorrow might be a victory over an eventual 1 seed and could boost Duke up a seed line in our own seeding, possibly from a 2 seed to a 1 seed ourselves. Big game.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Expanding on these thoughts a bit.

I think Duke's going to steal a win tomorrow night. I have a lot of respect for Kentucky's talent, and I would've voted them preseason #1 as well. They have a very good to great college PG in Ulis and he'll be getting the ball to two top-6 lottery picks in Skal and Murray, according to NBADraft.net and DraftExpress. So, UK is looking fantastic at their PG and C positions, the two most important positions, with Ulis and Skal, and they additionally have a high-scoring wing in Murray, who can also play point. Duke has great wings in Grayson and Brandon, but Kentucky should receive better PG and C play this season than Duke. That's no knock on our guys, as I believe Duke's PG-by-committee and MP3/Chase platoon will function well, but it's tough to say Kentucky doesn't project to be better at those two crucial positions this season. Therefore, if Calipari does a good developing his team, they should be better than Duke in March.

But Duke is playing them tomorrow, Nov 17, not in March (at least not yet). Duke teams usually burst from the starting gate really fast and dominate in November and December, and I've seen no reason through two games to think it will be different this season. In contrast, I believe if UK coughed up 20 turnovers to Albany and 14 turnovers to NJIT, then Duke's going to be able to turn them over tomorrow night. Later on this season, UK will probably protect the ball very well since they will at times play 3 PGs together in Ulis, Murray, and Briscoe, but we might be catching them at a good time right now. Likewise, Skal is going to be a top-3 pick, but in his first encounter with muscular, experienced, high-major big men in Amile and MP3, Duke might be able to take advantage of Skal on the boards.

Finally, small sample, but Duke appears to be a more vet-centered team at this time. Kentucky's top 2 scorers and 3 of their top-4 are freshmen. Whereas vets make up 3 of the top-4 Duke scorers. I think being slightly more vet-centered will help in the third game of the season for both teams.

So, overall, UK may be the better team a few months from now, but Duke should be the better team tomorrow. A win over UK tomorrow is going to look great on the tournament resume once UK puts everything together. A victory tomorrow might be a victory over an eventual 1 seed and could boost Duke up a seed line in our own seeding, possibly from a 2 seed to a 1 seed ourselves. Big game.

I echo everything here. One of Coach K's best attributes as a college coach is getting his players ready for November and December games. Like Troublemaker, I also believe that UK will be one of the best teams in the country come March (and they also have the most talent), but they are younger and less experienced than Duke. And I think that will absolutely help Duke's cause. Matt Jones, Amile Jefferson, and Grayson Allen all have fairly significant minutes under their belts (okay, Grayson not as much. But it feels like that!) whilst only Ulis and the perennially injured Poythress (who is the 7th man) have those minutes. And Poythress has missed so much time over the last two seasons. Furthermore, Grayson Allen may not be the highest draft pick amongst the starters (I actually think he's fifth after Skal, Murray, Briscoe, and Ingram), but he is the most-ready now with the best combination of experience, talent, and scoring-prowess. We are going to ride Grayson's offensive potential for the first half of the season, and I expect him to average nearly 20 points a game. Also, his willingness to pass will make double-teaming Grayson extremely challenging.

Can't wait for this game!

[kAzE]

I echo everything here. One of Coach K's best attributes as a college coach is getting his players ready for November and December games. Like Troublemaker, I also believe that UK will be one of the best teams in the country come March (and they also have the most talent), but they are younger and less experienced than Duke. And I think that will absolutely help Duke's cause. Matt Jones, Amile Jefferson, and Grayson Allen all have fairly significant minutes under their belts (okay, Grayson not as much. But it feels like that!) whilst only Ulis and the perennially injured Poythress (who is the 7th man) have those minutes. And Poythress has missed so much time over the last two seasons. Furthermore, Grayson Allen may not be the highest draft pick amongst the starters (I actually think he's fifth after Skal, Murray, Briscoe, and Ingram), but he is the most-ready now with the best combination of experience, talent, and scoring-prowess. We are going to ride Grayson's offensive potential for the first half of the season, and I expect him to average nearly 20 points a game. Also, his willingness to pass will make double-teaming Grayson extremely challenging.

Can't wait for this game!

I'll throw my hat into the Duke ring as well. I think Grayson Allen's penchant for getting in the paint and drawing fouls is SUCH a huge advantage for our team this year with the new rules. He's basically single handedly put Duke in the bonus with like 10:00 to go in every half we've played thus far. He's the James Harden of college basketball right now, and I don't see him slowing down as long as he stays healthy (knock on wood). If he can manage to get Skal in early foul trouble, I think we win comfortably. They rely on him quite heavily for offense and rim protection, and I think he and Grayson will have more than a few meetings at the rim on Tuesday. I like Grayson in that match up, at least in November. He's got the refs on his side right now.

I also agree that Matt Jones should be matched up on Murray and he will destroy the freshman, who is shooting a measly 39% against inferior competition. With an elite defender in his face, I don't think he's likely to improve much upon that in the next game.

It will be interesting to see who they use to guard Ingram. I thought it would probably be Poythress, but he's been a lesser part of the rotation thus far, perhaps still recovering from his injuries. If it's Willis, I think Ingram will have a huge game, and he should also shut down Willis on the defensive end.

We are deeper and more experienced, and just as talented. Unlike their veterans (really only Ulis has gotten big minutes in the past, although Lee and Poythress have both been around for longer), ours are a big part of the offensive and defensive gameplan, and they are national champions. We should be the betting favorite.

[Billy Dat]

With the hand check rule change being so strongly enforced to start the year (as in, keep your hands off of drivers), I am extremely concerned over how we are going to keep Ulis out of the lane. He is the definition of a "waterbug", a lightning-quick, shifty, skittish blur who fakes and feints his way past you in a blink. Ulis gets into the lane and can launch a floater, throw a lob to Skal or Lee (this is really what Lee specializes in) or kick to Murray. As we have been discussing on the game threads, the defense is a work in progress and I really don't have faith in our ability to rotate quickly enough to thwart Ulis' options if we gets into the lane.

As a result, I hope to see K really mix up the defenses to keep Ulis and Kentucky guessing. Ulis shouldn't be able to throw it over the defense so those looks with Ingram at the top of the 1-3-1 may be a bit confounding. Naturally, Kentucky has the tape of our games so I am sure they will have a bunch of counters. We also have to limit their transition game. If they're shooting is as subpar as some have posted, they are going to be trying to run to get easy buckets.

Murray is a huge X-factor. I first saw him in the Nike Hoops Summit where he led the World Team (also featuring Skal) to a W against a US squad with Brandon, Chase and Luke (plus his future Kentucky teammate Briscoe)
http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-...ind-murrays-30

During the game, which was played right after we won the title and figured Tyus was leaving, many of us on DBR were posting "Who is this kid, Murray?" "Are we recruiting him?" "WHY AREN'T WE RECRUTING HIM!?!" Shortly thereafter, before the Derryck recruitment/reclassify happened, Duke did briefly get involved. Remember, the staff was trying to finish up the Brandon recruitment and needed to fill the hole at PG to try and seal the deal. But I digress...

Once he was on my radar, I followed as he played for Team Cananda against grown men in the Pan Am games and led them to the Gold Medal game where they lost and took home Silver:
http://www.torontosun.com/2015/07/24...s-on-big-stage
He led a comeback over a mark Few-coached US team in the semis that included Ron Baker, Malcolm Brogdon, Melo Trimble and other older US guys playing in Europe.

I only say all this about Murray because I believe, including Skal and our guys, that he is the best player in the game tomorrow and think that he has the juice to win it "by himself" as much as that ever happens in a basketball game.

So, I worry about Ulis getting in the lane and running the break and causing havok and I worry about Murray in general.

(note - after posting this I saw kAzE's post about Murray - I hope you are right and I am wrong!)