2015-16 Hot Stove Baseball

[FerryFor50]

The Mets can afford to overpay. Moving Duda clears the way for Wright to move to IB, which I think will prolong his career, and the farm system is loaded with middle-infield prospects with higher ceilings than Flores.

I'd rather see them turn Duda and Flores into other assets, like upgrading the OF a little or the bullpen.

[sagegrouse]

Well sir, might be time to shut this old thread down and begin the off season thread with...

Dusty Baker named new manager of the nat. Why am I thinking that this may not be the solution in that locker room?

Matt Williams was "clueless" about managing a baseball team. According to all reports, it was a tension-filled locker room. Dusky Baker will do fine if all he does is fill out the lineup card and let the players play. Not too hard. Lessee ... Taylor, Rendon, Harper, Zimmerman ...

I blame Williams for Harper's losing nearly a full season of productivity in 2014. He jerked Harper out of the lineup for not running out a fly ball -- defensible, but in this case the wrong approach to a young star. Afterwards, Harper played totally out of control (according to teammates as well as my observations) until he finally tore a thumb tendon on a reckless slide into third base. While he returned later in the summer, he did not have any strength in his injured hand, and he only recorded 13 HRs for the season. As we all remember, his power returned in the playoffs against the Giants. The Nats still lost when Williams mishandled the bullpen that series.

[mkirsh]

While I'm not a fan of Dusty Baker, he has had some success as a manager.

Of course, his reputation is that he destroys young arms with overwork. That dates back a decade ago to a time when he routinely had gifted young hurlers throw 120-plus pitches a start -- over and over again. Many in the Cubs organization believe that he's guilty of destroying Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. When confronted by this, Baker routinely shrugged it off and refused to address the issue.

Nats announced highly regarded Mike Maddux as pitching coach, which hopefully removes any of the concern about Baker mismanaging the pitching staff (that is, of course, if the Lerners learned their lesson and actually have a signed contract before announcing the deal).
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...oach/75172248/

There is a small red flag in the article, which notes that the Nats hired him before Baker. I'm not sure how often this happens, but have some worry that the arranged marriage could cause issues (does Maddux view Baker as his boss, or GM Mike Rizzo?)

[Blue in the Face]

The Twins have won the bidding for the rights to Byung-Ho Park, a heavy-hitting Korean first baseman. His Korean league stats are rather jaw-dropping, though obviously that needs to be taken with a grain of salt. To provide some comparison, Jung Ho Kang had a very impressive rookie season with the Pirates this year, putting up a .355 obp and .466 slugging in pretty regular playing time. From ages 19 to 27 in Korea, he had a .383 obp and .504 slugging. From ages 25 - 27, his ops was .973, .876 and 1.198. He hit 40 HR's his last season, but never more than 25 prior to that. In the same league, Park's career numbers through age 28 are a .387 obp and .564 slg. His last 3 years, his ops was 1.039, 1.119 and 1.150, topping 50 HR's each of the last 2 years. We'll see what he can do in mlb, but if he translates in similar fashion to how Kang did this year, he and Sano could be quite a power duo.

[Duke79UNLV77]

While I'm not a fan of Dusty Baker, he has had some success as a manager.

Some success as a manager? Not every coach or manager can be the Coach K of his/her profession, but Baker has acquitted himself quite well: https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...d0c_story.html

[Olympic Fan]

The first Vegas odds of the 2016 season are out and the Cubs are the early favorites to win it all:

http://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/7...6-world-series

Personally, I think the Giants are a bit undervalued -- not only is there the "every other year" thing, but they also have $60 million in bad money coming off the books, so there is a good chance to made a major score or two in the free agent market.

[Blue in the Face]

So uh, that's not Nationals Park.



(Team calendars are all prepared by a licensee, and the Nationals apparently had no part in choosing, or even reviewing, the cover image before publication).

[Olympic Fan]

I've been reading speculation and Jon Heyman was talking about the Yankees trading Andrew Miller to the Nats for Steven Strasberg.

Apparently, Strasberg is available because he's only under team control for one more year. Miller is coming off a great year as the Yankees closer, but they have Betances who can fill that role (although if he becomes a closer, who fills his 8th inning role?). Not sure if anybody else would be involved in the deal. Or if Heyman is actually reporting anything of substance.

[YmoBeThere]

The Twins have won the bidding for the rights to Byung-Ho Park, a heavy-hitting Korean first baseman. His Korean league stats are rather jaw-dropping, though obviously that needs to be taken with a grain of salt. To provide some comparison, Jung Ho Kang had a very impressive rookie season with the Pirates this year, putting up a .355 obp and .466 slugging in pretty regular playing time. From ages 19 to 27 in Korea, he had a .383 obp and .504 slugging. From ages 25 - 27, his ops was .973, .876 and 1.198. He hit 40 HR's his last season, but never more than 25 prior to that. In the same league, Park's career numbers through age 28 are a .387 obp and .564 slg. His last 3 years, his ops was 1.039, 1.119 and 1.150, topping 50 HR's each of the last 2 years. We'll see what he can do in mlb, but if he translates in similar fashion to how Kang did this year, he and Sano could be quite a power duo.

Can anyone say Hee Sop Choi?

[Jim3k]

The Phillies picked up on waivers Blue Devil Dan Otero from the A's. Dan said he didn't even know he was being waived.

Susan Slusser.

In addition, switch pitcher Pat Venditte was claimed off the waiver wire by Toronto.

[Blue in the Face]

Rough day for off-field news. Former Braves pitcher Tommy Hanson passed away at 29 due to organ failure.

And Jose Reyes was arrested in Hawaii for assaulting his wife. He will be the first player subject to discipline under mlb's new domestic abuse policy (introduced a few months ago).

[weezie]

^^^ Awful, awful news. Just so sad and shocking.

[Olympic Fan]

The Yankees traded backup catcher John Ryan Murphy to the Twins for young outfielder Aaron Hicks:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14...hn-ryan-murphy

Not a mega deal or anything, but it reportedly foreshadows a deal for veteran OF Brett Gardner, a 2015 all-star who slumped badly down the stretch (with a bad wrist).

Hicks has not been all that productive so farm but he's supposed to have a lot of talent. At worst, he replaces Chris Young as the team's fourth outfielder.

Moving Murphy means the Yankees have to either bring up Gary Sanchez or Austin Romine. Sanchez has a major league bat, but is reportedly an inferior catcher. Romine can catch, but he's not much of a hitter,

[weezie]

...Hicks has not been all that productive so farm but he's supposed to have a lot of talent...

Apparently there's a lot of upside with young Hicks.

In other news, former Duke reliever Mike Seander is dating Josie Canseco, daughter of Jose?! Seander, now known as Mike Stud is trying to get a rap career off the ground.

You never know what you might pick up at 3:30am if you can't sleep, turn on the tv in the kitchen and catch a few minutes of TMZ!

[wilson]

The Barves have traded Andrelton Simmons to the Angels for Erick Aybar:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14...de-erick-aybar
Simmons was my favorite Barves player at the time of my breakup. Freddie Freeman is now the only remaining player to whom I ever had any emotional connection. The degree to which today's Barves bear no resemblance to the team I loved for so many years is genuinely astounding. And while I know that some of the pieces left behind by the Wren administration were woeful underperformers and some of the contracts were problematic, the wholesale dismantling of the team has been drastic and glaring. You can't convince me that there's not a certain middle-finger-to-Atlanta feel about it all.
This is especially galling in light of last week's team release stating that team profits were up in 2015, even though revenue declined by $16 million. The franchise was able to offset that decline through "lower player salaries and decreased operating costs." So basically, they made more money by slashing the roster down to an embarrassing husk of a team, and diminishing the gameday experience for fans.
Oh, and there's more good news! You'll soon be able to buy Cobb Barves stock! So Liberty Media pumped up franchise value by avoiding stadium debt by getting ~a half billion dollars in public money, and now you can buy a tiny sliver of the value you already helped to pay for. Um, thanks but no thanks. The malfeasance and contempt for the consumer has reached insulting proportions. These people can't pack up for their gridlocked hellscape soon enough.

[JasonEvans]

The Barves have traded Andrelton Simmons to the Angels for Erick Aybar:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14...de-erick-aybar

I've seen some stories point out that Simmons lack of production at the plate was just too frustrating to the Braves. Plus, starting next season Simmons goes from being a cheap young player to a kid earning over $10 mil per season (or something like that). The word is the Braves got back one great pitching prospect, a guy who may turn into a #1 starter in a couple years, and another prospect who is pretty good and will either be a useful pitcher or a useful trade piece down the line.

So, I get that this is a deal that makes sense for the Braves. The way they have stockpiled young pitching talent is impressive -- one writer said they are setting themselves up to win a lot of 1-0 or 2-1 games in a couple years with tons of pitching but no offense. Still, I can't help but lament losing the finest fielder of his generation just as he is entering his prime. I kinda hate the way the MLB seems to value unproven prospects over guys who have actually shown ability at the major league level. I know it is a product of the economics of the game (that makes young team-controlled players so important) but that still doesn't make it enjoyable to the fans.

-Jason "I went to one Braves game this year, the fewest number of games for me in decades... I may not even go to one next year" Evans

[wilson]

...I can't help but lament losing the finest fielder of his generation just as he is entering his prime. I kinda hate the way the MLB seems to value unproven prospects over guys who have actually shown ability at the major league level. I know it is a product of the economics of the game (that makes young team-controlled players so important) but that still doesn't make it enjoyable to the fans.

-Jason "I went to one Braves game this year, the fewest number of games for me in decades... I may not even go to one next year" Evans

Yep, you're right on target. I too understand the value of prospects, but the Barves don't actually know what they got in this trade. And furthermore, they may have gotten the Angels' top prospect, but that's also one of the worst farm systems in baseball.
Also, I don't fully understand the frustration with Simmons' offensive output. I mean, his lifetime batting average is a whopping 6 points lower than Ozzie Smith, a comparable player known much more as a defensive wiz than an offensive force. I understand that it's a different era and teams now rely on their middle infielders for much more pop than they did in the '70s and '80s, but if the Barves had bothered to build a decent roster around Simmons, then a .256 hitter in the 7 or 8 hole who is good for ~3-4 WAR per year based on his fielding alone would have been perfectly serviceable. The Barves are committing outright front-office malpractice, and their claim that the team will contend in 2017 is nothing short of laughable.

[Blue in the Face]

Craig Kimbrel goes from San Diego to the Red Sox for 4 prospects. Obviously a nice piece for a team that struggled in the pen, but they gave up a lot.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14...n-diego-padres

[Olympic Fan]

I've seen some stories point out that Simmons lack of production at the plate was just too frustrating to the Braves. Plus, starting next season Simmons goes from being a cheap young player to a kid earning over $10 mil per season (or something like that). The word is the Braves got back one great pitching prospect, a guy who may turn into a #1 starter in a couple years, and another prospect who is pretty good and will either be a useful pitcher or a useful trade piece down the line.

Actually, according to Baseball Reference, Simmons goes from $3 million in 2015 to $6 million in 2016 and $8 million in 2017. He doesn't top $10 million until 2018, when he gets $11 million. The thing is, he's under team control until 2021.

Aybar, on the other hand will make $8.5 million next year -- so the Braves are paying $2.5 million MORE for a shortstop who is (1) six years older; (2) weaker at the plate last season; and (3) not even on the same planet defensively. They also got a pitcher ranked the 25th prospect in baseball by the MLB Network. For contrast, the Padres got four prospects for Craig Kimbrell -- two of them rated higher than the kid the Braves got for Simmons.

Anyway you look at it, this was a HORRIBLE trade for the Braves. Simmons was not only the best defensive shortstop in baseball (saving 71 more runs over the last three years than the second-best defensive shortstop (Crawford of the Giants), but he was the best defensive PLAYER in baseball (saving 21 more runs than the second best). Or put it another way, he earned more defensive win shares in his first four years than Ozzie Smith won over any four-year span in his career.

Simmons is not a great hitter, but his career OPS-plus of 85 is not bad for a shortstop. Just an aside, the Royals just won the World Series with a gold glove shortstop who had a 68 OPS-plus. The Orioles won a bunch of titles with a gold glove shortstop named Mark Belanger, who had a career OPS-plus of 68. And while Ozzie Smith ended up with a career OPS-plus of 87 -- he only developed as a decent hitter late in his career -- after his first four years, Smith's OPS-plus was 78.

This deal makes no sense. Why give up a great young shortstop when he have him cheap for five more years? Unless Newcomb turns into a dominant player (and he was pretty mediocre in his brief stint in AA ball last season) -- and while he's a good prospect, nobody is rating him that highly -- this is going to rank as the worst deal in modern Braves history (and that's saying something for a team that traded a group of player that became an all-star shortstop, an all-star closer, an all-star starting pitcher and a serviceable young catcher to rent Mark Teixiera for 150 games ... in the end, the Braves traded him away for Casey Kotchman and another great prospect named Steve Marek).

[Blue in the Face]

Jordan Zimmermann becomes the first big free agent to sign, going to Detroit for $110MM over 5 years. Probably good value, though his 2015 season could be some cause for concern going forward.


http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14...ree-agent-deal