MBB Dork Polls/Stats, 2015-16 Edition

[Troublemaker]

Guess who is #1 in KenPom's preseason rankings?

http://kenpom.com/

[SilkyJ]

Love it!

I'm sure this question has been answered in the past, but how does KenPom do this in the preseason given how little (or zero) data there is? I think of the dork polls as using data/stats to backup their rankings, but no one's played any games yet! Clearly he's using stats on players/teams from the prior year, but I'm curious what sort of assumptions and leaps he's making in order to create his model.

[sagegrouse]

Love it!

I'm sure this question has been answered in the past, but how does KenPom do this in the preseason given how little (or zero) data there is? I think of the dork polls as using data/stats to backup their rankings, but no one's played any games yet! Clearly he's using stats on players/teams from the prior year, but I'm curious what sort of assumptions and leaps he's making in order to create his model.

Because his subscribers don't want to wait until mid-January to get rankings and analysis.

[SilkyJ]

Because his subscribers don't want to wait until mid-January to get rankings and analysis.

Well the man's gotta get paid I suppose, but your point answers "why" he does it, while I'm asking "how" he does it.

[Troublemaker]

I'm sure this question has been answered in the past, but how does KenPom do this in the preseason

Not sure, but he was pretty darn accurate about Duke in the preseason last year. I just checked my archives. KenPom had Duke ranked #1 last preseason (edging out #2 UK), and Duke did end up earning a #1 seed and went on to win the national championship. His projections did underestimate Duke's regular season record, as it predicted a regular season of 25-6 (14-4 ACC) when, in reality, Duke went 28-3 (15-3 ACC), but that just goes to show how well that team played in big games that usually would be losses (e.g. @Wiscy, @UVA).

Hopefully KenPom is as accurate about this year's team as he was about last year's team, and we stay as healthy as that team did.

[Duke95]

Well the man's gotta get paid I suppose, but your point answers "why" he does it, while I'm asking "how" he does it.

This is his explanation:

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/web...n_ratings_2014

[SmartDevil]

UNCheaters at 7.

[Troublemaker]

UNCheaters at 7.

Maryland at #24, haha

[RobbieG]

Champions Classic looks stacked again as usual. That game will be fun to watch.

[Ichabod Drain]

Looking a little deeper he predicts Duke to have the #1 offense. Not surprising considering he uses the last five seasons of data and Duke has had a top ten offense all five of those years and top five offense four out of five years.

On the other side of the ball he predicts Duke to have the #9 defense. Now as we all know, Duke's defense has been a lot more unpredictable than the offense over the last five years. In fact if we did finish with the #9 defense that would be our best finish since 2010 (#8). I think we have a lot of defensive potential this year but we are still young so it may take some time to find our groove.

I think it's certainly possible that our defense may end up rated higher than our offense, which would be the first time since 2008.

[Nosbleuatu]

Maryland at #24, haha

For what it's worth, Kenpom doesn't include transfers in the "personnel" part of the equation.

His recent stats from Duke probably wouldn't add much to the ranking, though, even if it was included.

[MCFinARL]

Looking a little deeper he predicts Duke to have the #1 offense. Not surprising considering he uses the last five seasons of data and Duke has had a top ten offense all five of those years and top five offense four out of five years.

On the other side of the ball he predicts Duke to have the #9 defense. Now as we all know, Duke's defense has been a lot more unpredictable than the offense over the last five years. In fact if we did finish with the #9 defense that would be our best finish since 2010 (#8). I think we have a lot of defensive potential this year but we are still young so it may take some time to find our groove.

I think it's certainly possible that our defense may end up rated higher than our offense, which would be the first time since 2008.

This may have something to do with the fact that our returning players (who, according to KenPom's explanation, are weighted more heavily than new personnel) are all known to be fairly tenacious defenders--but of course that is just my guess.

[sagegrouse]

This may have something to do with the fact that our returning players (who, according to KenPom's explanation, are weighted more heavily than new personnel) are all known to be fairly tenacious defenders--but of course that is just my guess.

Uhhh... This is educated-guess time. The best teams are easy guesses -- Duke and Kentucky will be real good, as will Virginia and NC, who return a lot of players. But he has 300+ teams to rate!

[Troublemaker]

Luke Winn / SI uses a statistical system to project all Div-I teams

This system projects Duke to be a 1 seed (ranked #4 overall) with #3 offense and #37 defense

[Troublemaker]

Luke Winn / SI uses a statistical system to project all Div-I teams

This system projects Duke to be a 1 seed (ranked #4 overall) with #3 offense and #37 defense

In the video accompanying this article, Luke Winn explains that even though UNC is the #1 team in the system this season, their team would only have been ranked #8 if inserted into last season's field.

A little bit more grist for the "college basketball is weak this season" mill

[MChambers]

In the video accompanying this article, Luke Winn explains that even though UNC is the #1 team in the system this season, their team would only have been ranked #8 if inserted into last season's field.

A little bit more grist for the "college basketball is weak this season" mill

Interesting that UNC's defense is projected as #45.

[luvdahops]

Luke Winn / SI uses a statistical system to project all Div-I teams

This system projects Duke to be a 1 seed (ranked #4 overall) with #3 offense and #37 defense

Interesting. That seems somewhat counter to the expectations of most on this board (e.g. we had an entire thread dedicated to "Where Will the Points Come From?", along with numerous posts alluding to this squad's defensive potential).

[Billy Dat]

The CBS web guys (Parrish, Norlander, Vecenie) had a podcast last week where they mentioned the predictive accuracy of the AP Preseason Poll.

http://sports.cbsimg.net/swf/audio/AudioPlayer.swf

[Troublemaker]

Interesting. That seems somewhat counter to the expectations of most on this board (e.g. we had an entire thread dedicated to "Where Will the Points Come From?", along with numerous posts alluding to this squad's defensive potential).

For sure. And Pomeroy's system predicted Duke to have a better offense than defense as well, albeit without such a drastic spread (#1 offense, #9 defense in KenPom.)

I would guess these predictive systems heavily weigh recent seasons in their formulae, and so if the current narrative (defense > offense) is very different from what has occurred in recent seasons, it's almost impossible for these statistical systems to match the narrative.

You know, if I HAD to bet the house on one or the other, i.e. choose between (offense > defense) or (defense > offense), I think I would lean towards Duke finishing this season with a higher ranked offense. I think it has a chance to be very close, but it's tough to go against history. Duke under Coach K over the past decade or so has had killer offenses.

[MChambers]

I think it has a chance to be very close, but it's tough to go against history. Duke under Coach K over the past decade or so has had killer offenses.

That and no so great defenses, with the exception of 2010. Of course, last year's team got the defense going in the NCAA tourney, so that was fine.