Top 6 Movies of Winter 2015 at the Box Office

[JasonEvans]

We are just weeks from the start of November, which is the traditional start of our "Top 5 of Winter" contest. This year, we are doing a Top 6, not a top 5. I urge you... do not pick 3 or 4 or 5 film... pick 6. If you pick 7 or more, you will be eliminated. If you pick less than 6 you will similarly be DQ'd. Your picks should reflect the 6 films you think will make the most money at the domestic boxoffice. International returns are not relevant for this contest.

And, as most of you know from the controversy over the summer, we are going to employ a new set of rules concerning the time the contest will run. Here is the rule.

Any film released between Nov 1 and Jan 31 is eligible for the contest. We will close the contest when it is clear that we know what the Top 5 boxoffice champs will be (a panel of 12 distinguished Hollywood scholars will determine the close of the contest... either that or I will do it on my own with input from the masses). If a film is still in contention for the top 5 and is still drawing reasonable boxoffice returns, we will keep the contest open even if it means the contest does not close until March, though I think that is pretty darn unlikely. Is everybody clear on that?

So, with all that spelled out, here are the contenders along with their release dates and a little blurb about why they are a contender:

• Spectre - Nov 6th - the latest James Bond film and likely Daniel Craig's last appearance as 007.
• The Peanuts Movie - Nov 6th - Lots of Peanuts TV shows, but this is the first movie. Same studio as the guys who brought you Ice Age.
• Hunger Games: Mockingjay 2 - Nov 20th - The first three films in this franchise did ok boxoffice so they reluctantly decided to make a 4th
• The Night Before - Nov 20th - Seth Rogen, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, and Anthony Mackie (Falcon from Avengers 2) in a raunchy comedy attempting to be the Bad Santa of this year.
• The Good Dinosaur - Nov 25th - Pixar does 2 movies in one year! This film was originally scheduled for summer 2014, but was moved back. Is that a bad sign?
• In the Heart of the Sea - Dec 11th - Ron Howard's epic sea adventure based on the real story behind the Moby Dick legend. Originally scheduled for a spring 2015 release, it was moved because the studio thinks it has boxoffice and awards potential that would be squandered in the spring.
• Star Wars: Force Awakens - Dec 18th - This might make a couple bucks at the boxoffice.
• Sisters - Dec 18th - Tina Fey and Amy Pohler are arguably the funniest women in America. They play sisters who are opposites who throw one last party in their childhood home.
• Alvin and the Chipmunks 4 - Dec 23rd - If the title doesn't tell you what this is about, I don't know how I can help you.
• Joy - Dec 25th - Jennifer Lawrence teams up with director David O Russell (Silver Linings, American Hustle) for a film about the woman who invented the miracle mop.
• The Hateful Eight - Jan 8th - Quentin Tarantino film about 8 strangers in the old west trapped under the same roof in a blizzard. Some of them are not what they seem.
• The Revenant - Jan 8th - Alejandro Inarratu's follow-up to Birdman, starring Dicaprio as a fur trader who wants revenge after he is left for dead in the wilderness by his partner, Tom Hardy.
• Ride Along 2 - Jan 15th - Ice Cube and Kevin Hart back together. The original made $155 million.
• 13 Hours: Benghazi - Jan 15th - This winter's American Sniper? Michael Bay directs the story of the 6-man team sent to defend the US embassy when it is attacked in Bengazi, Libya.
• Kung Fu Panda 3 - Jan 29th - The follow up to Kung Fu Panda 2

You may notice that this list contains 15 films. I just did not have room for an "other" film in the poll. So, if you want to vote for a film not on this list, simply vote for 5 films in the poll and then post your "other" vote somewhere in this thread. All "other" votes must be in by the poll deadline of Oct 31st. Among the films that are reasonable "other" choices are: Creed with Sly Stallone as Rocky; the comedy Daddy's Home with Will Farrell and Mark Whalberg; Will Smith in the anti-NFL film Concussion; the Point Break remake; The Big Short, the film about the financial collapse of 2007 with Brad Pitt, Christian Bale, and Steve Carrell; Victor Frankenstein with Daniel Radcliffe; and Dirty Grandpa with Robert DeNiro and Zach Effron.

Ok folks, start doing your research. I'll give you a hint... I suspect Star Wars may do ok at the boxoffice.

-Jason "Your votes must be entered by Saturday, Oct 31st" Evans

[Chicago 1995]

In addition to the five I logged above -- Spectre, Hunger Games: Mockingjay 2, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, The Good Dinosaur & Kung Fu Panda 3 -- I'm going with The Big Short as my 6th.

It's probably a bad choice, as will be one of the two kid's movies, but I don't see anything better to bet on than these six.

[gurufrisbee]

I'll stick with my five from before (Star Wars, MockingJay, Spectre, Kung Fu 3, Good Dinosaur).

Adding a sixth was tough. Sisters has a lot of potential. So does Ride Along 2. And even the Hateful 8. I'm really tempted to go with Point Break (mostly because I love the original so much and I think a lot of folks do). But we'll go with:

Daddy's Home.

The Other Guys was so funny.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I'm having a hard time disregarding Peanuts, which means I may be going with 4 family films, three of which are directed squarely at kids. (The animated choices.)
I've not seen any of the KFP movies, but they are making a third one for a reason, obviously. While I would not be surprised if Good Dino isn't in the top 5, I would be if Pixar didn't make top 6 in a season.
Sitting on my vote for a few days, but early gut feeling tells me that kids are going to make Hollywood happy over the holidays.

[davekay1971]

I went with the same 4 that everyone is going with plus...

The Revenant.

This is certainly a contest to pick the 5th entry. I doubt any of the first four have a significant chance of not performing to expectations. Might even consider a top 6 just to tease out a winner, since, if the top 4 all perform to expectation, it will be likely that four or five people will pick the correct 5th film. Just a thought...

I went with Revenant because Leo has become a very good box office draw, and because the trailers look intense. I steered away from KP3 because KP2 really underperformed at the box office. It was a good movie, too...not good enough to generate great feelings or desire for a sequel, and not bad enough to explain the poor performance. For whatever, reason, people just weren't interested in another go with that world. I steered away from Hateful 8 because Tarantino doesn't usually do a ton of box office and the film doesn't have a big box office actor leading it.

I was tempted to pick In The Heart of the Sea because it looks fantastic, I like Ron Howard's work, and I love a good based-on-a-true-story movie. But the last such movie by Howard and Hemsworth was Rush, which was awesome, and did nothing at the box office. Hemsworth, who has shown good acting chops to go along with the obvious movie star looks, has yet to prove that he's a box office draw when he's not in a Marvel movie. And 19th century sailing movies just don't do much at the box office, even when the movie is really, really good. So, while I trust Howard and Hemsworth to make a very good movie, and I will be seeing it, I suspect it won't get into the range it's got to get for the contest.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I went with the same 4 that everyone is going with plus...

The Revenant.

This is certainly a contest to pick the 5th entry. I doubt any of the first four have a significant chance of not performing to expectations. Might even consider a top 6 just to tease out a winner, since, if the top 4 all perform to expectation, it will be likely that four or five people will pick the correct 5th film.

Did you really only pick 5?

[BD80]

Did you really only pick 5?

A purist.

[NashvilleDevil]

My choices:

1. Star Wars - No brainer
2. Spectre - No brainer
3. Hunger Games - See 1 and 2
4. Good Dinosaur - Pixar is batting a thousand in making our lists, this will be no different.

5. Peanuts Movie - Went with this because Kung Fu Panda 2 did very little when it came out and I thoroughly enjoyed the trailer I saw.

6. Hateful 8 - This probably does not make it but Tarantino is one of my favorites and his last two movies have been big box office draws. I am disappointed that I will have to see Christoph Waltz in Spectre and not in a Tarantino movie.

[CameronBornAndBred]

5. Peanuts Movie - Went with this because Kung Fu Panda 2 did very little when it came out and I thoroughly enjoyed the trailer I saw.

Domestic Total Gross: $165,249,063

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/...ngfupanda2.htm

It had a Summer release, and while it made a bunch of money, finished 9th (I think) that year. It was the 5th most voted on movie for the Summer poll, causing 27 people to lose.

[wilson]

...Kung Fu Panda 2 did very little when it came out...

KFP2 grossed $165mm domestically and another $500mm internationally. It was the #15 earner for 2011. Not an unsuccessful film at all.

[JasonEvans]

Did you really only pick 5?

Yup, he only picked 5. Dave, please post in this thread with your 6th pick. Way to read the directions, dude! Ha!

As an aside, maybe I should have called it: PICK THE TOP 2 MOVIES OF WINTER OTHER THAN SPECTRE, GOOD DINO, HUNGER GAMES, AND STAR WARS because those films are at 100% thus far with 15 people having registered their picks. Hollywood Stock Exchange agrees as those 4 are the 4 biggest films on the exchange for the season.

-Jason "HSX prices: Star Wars - $404, Hunger Games - $332, Spectre - $218, Good Dino - $153" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Hunger Games - See 1 and 2

And 3.

1 made $408 mil, 2 made $424 mil, 3 made $337 mil.

Good Dinosaur - Pixar is batting a thousand in making our lists, this will be no different.

Nope.

2007 - Our very first year of doing the poll. Ratatouille makes $206 million, good for 7th place in the summer box office (Spidey 3, Shrek 3, Transformers, Pirates 3, Harry Potter 5, and Bourne 3 all beat it). 2007 was a stunningly good summer for Hollywood blockbusters and Ratatouille was just a little bit too smart for audiences to put it into the Top 5.

I would have sworn that Cars 2 and Brave missed the top 5, but they both made it even though they are the two worst Pixar films thus far.

-Jason "Pixar has released 8 films since we started these contests in 2007-- they are batting .875... which is better than Marvel but worse than Transformers" Evans

[luburch]

And 3.

1 made $408 mil, 2 made $424 mil, 3 made $337 mil.



Nope.

2007 - Our very first year of doing the poll. Ratatouille makes $206 million, good for 7th place in the summer box office (Spidey 3, Shrek 3, Transformers, Pirates 3, Harry Potter 5, and Bourne 3 all beat it). 2007 was a stunningly good summer for Hollywood blockbusters and Ratatouille was just a little bit too smart for audiences to put it into the Top 5.

I would have sworn that Cars 2 and Brave missed the top 5, but they both made it even though they are the two worst Pixar films thus far.

-Jason "Pixar has released 8 films since we started these contests in 2007-- they are batting .875... which is better than Marvel but worse than Transformers" Evans

I believe NashvilleDevil was referencing numbers 1 and 2 from their list, not the Hunger Games movies.

The Transformers note is just sad, really.

[davekay1971]

A purist.

Either that or a guy who moved too fast and paid no attention at all to the threat title, poll instructions, or anything else.

As the great Homer Simpson once said...

DOH!

Thanks for the do-over chance, JE! I'll take Kung Fu Panda 3 and just stop talking for awhile.

[brevity]

-Jason "HSX prices: Star Wars - $404, Hunger Games - $332, Spectre - $218, Good Dino - $153" Evans

I guess it's time for that. Once again, the numbers are probably meaningless for our purposes, but they might have comparative value.

$407.12 Star Wars: The Force Awakens
$332.45 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part II
$216.62 Spectre
$153.60 The Good Dinosaur
$114.78 Kung Fu Panda 3
$95.10 The Hateful Eight
$90.02 The Peanuts Movie
$71.52 Ride Along 2
$70.14 The Revenant
$66.89 Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip
$56.26 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
$54.16 The Night Before
$51.23 Sisters
$48.06 Joy
$30.38 In the Heart of the Sea

And the five highest not in the poll:

$49.46 Creed
$40.48 Daddy's Home
$38.09 Concussion
$35.89 The Big Short
$35.51 The 5th Wave

[YmoBeThere]

I believe NashvilleDevil was referencing numbers 1 and 2 from their list, not the Hunger Games movies.

No need to crash a perfectly good rant...

[JasonEvans]

I guess it's time for that. Once again, the numbers are probably meaningless for our purposes, but they might have comparative value.

$407.12 Star Wars: The Force Awakens
$332.45 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part II
$216.62 Spectre
$153.60 The Good Dinosaur
$114.78 Kung Fu Panda 3
$95.10 The Hateful Eight
$90.02 The Peanuts Movie
$71.52 Ride Along 2
$70.14 The Revenant
$66.89 Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip
$56.26 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
$54.16 The Night Before
$51.23 Sisters
$48.06 Joy
$30.38 In the Heart of the Sea

And the five highest not in the poll:

$49.46 Creed
$40.48 Daddy's Home
$38.09 Concussion
$35.89 The Big Short
$35.51 The 5th Wave

On Christmas day, about 2 weeks before it was released, American Sniper was at $51 on HSX. A few days after it opened, it was at $294.

It is worth noting that movies with "legs" can really get skewed on HSX as it assigns price based on the first 3 weekends of release. So, Oscar contenders like Heart of the Sea, H8ful, Revenant, and Big Short which often roll out slowly and then gain big momentum when awards are announced can have really low HSX numbers that do not reflect their actual boxoffice potential. For example, The Imitation Game had a final FSX price of $48 even though it made $91 mil at the boxoffice. Another good example is Silver Linings Playbook, which had a HSX final price of $57, but ended up making $132 mil at the boxoffice.

Of course, the best ever example of this is Titanic. As you probably know Titanic made a staggering $658 mil at the boxoffice, the 2nd biggest film of all time. Anyone wanna guess at its final price on HSX?

Spoiler!

... $42.75 ...

That said, HSX can be useful to at least gauge what the general public is expecting from these films in their first few weeks of release.

-Jason "a month before its release, HSX pegged Jurassic World as a contender for our top 5 of summer, though not a lock, with a price of about $175" Evans

[JasonEvans]

It is a contest to pick #5 and #6. Spectre, Hunger Game, and Star Wars are all at 100% thus far. Good Dino is at about 95% (moonpie is thus far the only person not to pick it). After that, a huge disparity in the picks - Peanuts and Panda are each at about 50%, H8ful is at just under 30%, and 13 different films have gotten votes (plus 2 others - Big Short and Daddy's Home).

-Jason "I think I like this top 6 thing... then again, I've never ever gone 5-for-5 so maybe I should have taken the gift of 4 easy picks this season and been happy!" Evans

[CameronBornAndBred]

I'm putting my faith in Tarantino and a bald headed kid to make more peanuts than pandas. (And while leaving the Good Dino off my list is tempting, I don't want to be Minioned.)

[Reddevil]

I took the big four plus Sisters and Ride Along 2 hoping they catch on. Right now I want to watch about 10 of them, but will probably only pay to see Star Wars - maybe Spectre.