Page 4 of 4 FirstFirst ... 234
Results 61 to 78 of 78
  1. #61
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Ashburn, VA

    Interesting Final betting stats

    Sorry to treat this thread like my personal blog, but thought some might find this interesting - I re-ran everything but cleaned out a bunch of bogus data (out of the thousands of game pages, a couple hundred had some sort of issue with the source data which made them unusable)

    Games analyzed: 4626

    3-way ties: 1
    -- This happened only once in July, 2000, w/ everyone having $5,200. Two people maxed out, and the third only bet $5,000. They all got it right, and that non-maxer probably felt foolish!

    2-way ties for the lead: 46
    The betting in 2-way ties breaks down as follows:
    -- Max / Max: 17
    -- Zero / Zero: 0
    -- Max / Zero: 0
    -- Zero / Other: 1
    -- Max / Other: 19
    -- Other / Other: 9

    Total non-tied games analyzed: 4579

    Runaways: 1172 (25.6%)
    -- Runaways games w/ strange bets: 32 (2.7% of the time)
    (Most of these involved teen, children or celebrity weeks, or were part of a 2-day tournament final. At least the first 9 / 10 I manually inspected were, so I assume the other 22 were similar)

    Exact doubled games: 32 (0.7%)
    -- Doubled game w/ odd bets: 15 (47% of the time)
    (This really perplexes me, as almost all of these were on regular, adult games. I would thought a lock-tie scenario [before very recent rule changes] necessitates A bidding $0 and B maxing out. So strange! In the 8 that I manually inspected, they were either $0 by A but B not maxing out, or both going off-script. I didn't see any w/ B maxing out and A bidding something as well)


    Next comes the fun part where I plan to really dig into the data a bit more this weekend. I want to inspect all of the breakdowns in betting (particularly by B) for the following scenarios:

    Crushes: 953(20.8%)
    (This is defined where B < 2/3 of A, such that A can place a cover bet, and still win on a double-miss no matter what)

    2/3 games: 2422(52.9%)
    -- Exact 2/3 break point: 23
    -- Exact 3/4 break point: 25
    -- Exact 4/5 break point: 27
    -- Number of games between 2/3 and 3/4: 538
    -- Number of games between 3/4 and 4/5: 340
    -- Number of games over 4/5: 1469


    Note: The 3/4 and 4/5 scenarios are really special cases of the 2/3 scenario. The strategy still is a "min-bet" so to speak, just that the range of that min-bet can and should be adjusted. But you're not maxing out and instead covering yourself from a double/triple stumper.

    The exact break-points: I'll ignore these as I believe (need to double-check myself) the new introduction of the mandatory tie-breaker will change strategy here going forward.

  2. #62
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    New Orleans, Louisiana
    The number crunching is going over my head, and I wonder about their utility after what I saw on Friday's episode. It's late in Double Jeopardy and the returning champ lands on the last Daily Double. (The category is High Tension Lines, which is about movie dialogue.) He has $11,000 and the leader has $12,000. Aware of the scores, he risks all $11,000 and loses. He seems inactive for the last 10 or so clues, buzzing in only once more, and unsuccessfully. Game over.

    I guess you could call it the Cliff Clavin factor, but it seemed more like a healthy horse that wanted to be put down.

  3. #63
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Ashburn, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    The number crunching is going over my head, and I wonder about their utility after what I saw on Friday's episode. It's late in Double Jeopardy and the returning champ lands on the last Daily Double. (The category is High Tension Lines, which is about movie dialogue.) He has $11,000 and the leader has $12,000. Aware of the scores, he risks all $11,000 and loses. He seems inactive for the last 10 or so clues, buzzing in only once more, and unsuccessfully. Game over.

    I guess you could call it the Cliff Clavin factor, but it seemed more like a healthy horse that wanted to be put down.
    I actually didn't have a problem with his "true daily double" wager of a large amount, for a couple reasons:

    A huge factor is that he was already a 2-day champion. So flaming out on the 3rd day doesn't take away from the fact that you've already won $38,000 or whatever it was, plus get to boast of "Jeopardy champion" for the rest of your life. This opens you up to be more aggressive/risky as opposed to just trying not to embarrass yourself at your one shot.

    Then comes category comfortability - he probably felt pretty strongly about movie quotes, as did I. Unfortunately this was just one of those situations where it likely was the only one in the category he didn't know instantly (at least that was the case for me - I also didn't come up with the answer in time).

    Related to the last, is the wagering strategy. If you feel really strong about that category, maybe you give yourself an 80% chance of getting it correct. That puts you in a possible position to claim a runaway w/ a couple more clues (which is then 100% chance to win), or at worst a crush scenario, which also has a high chance for you to win.
    To bid small here means you might be more in the coin-flip territory for Final Jeopardy, so might as well seize your own destiny.

  4. #64
    Quote Originally Posted by snowdenscold View Post
    I actually didn't have a problem with his "true daily double" wager of a large amount, for a couple reasons:

    A huge factor is that he was already a 2-day champion. So flaming out on the 3rd day doesn't take away from the fact that you've already won $38,000 or whatever it was, plus get to boast of "Jeopardy champion" for the rest of your life. This opens you up to be more aggressive/risky as opposed to just trying not to embarrass yourself at your one shot.

    Then comes category comfortability - he probably felt pretty strongly about movie quotes, as did I. Unfortunately this was just one of those situations where it likely was the only one in the category he didn't know instantly (at least that was the case for me - I also didn't come up with the answer in time).

    Related to the last, is the wagering strategy. If you feel really strong about that category, maybe you give yourself an 80% chance of getting it correct. That puts you in a possible position to claim a runaway w/ a couple more clues (which is then 100% chance to win), or at worst a crush scenario, which also has a high chance for you to win.
    To bid small here means you might be more in the coin-flip territory for Final Jeopardy, so might as well seize your own destiny.
    So there are 4 categories (and related categories) that I would probably make an extra large Daily Double wager late in the game, and Movie Quotes is one of them. The other 3 are:
    Sports
    Math
    Shakespeare

    I would even be tempted to pull a Cliff Clavin if any of those 4 ended up as the Final Jeopardy category

  5. #65
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Ashburn, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by cf-62 View Post
    So there are 4 categories (and related categories) that I would probably make an extra large Daily Double wager late in the game, and Movie Quotes is one of them. The other 3 are:
    Sports
    Math
    Shakespeare

    I would even be tempted to pull a Cliff Clavin if any of those 4 ended up as the Final Jeopardy category
    Yeah, I've often thought about whether or not I would go full-Clavin if I ended up with Classical Music / Composers, Math, or The Bible, but I've seen enough screwy questions in those categories over the years where I just couldn't bring myself to do it. At least not on my first several games.

    Now, if I were a 3-day champion already (ha!), then maybe I'd got for that huge +EV wager.

  6. #66
    Quote Originally Posted by snowdenscold View Post
    Yeah, I've often thought about whether or not I would go full-Clavin if I ended up with Classical Music / Composers, Math, or The Bible, but I've seen enough screwy questions in those categories over the years...
    Yes, because every once in a while, your movie quote is "Hey buddy, what you got in there? A dead cat?" or the answer in Shakespeare is Timon of Athens --- or the math question is like a second grade math rules question...

  7. #67

    You can lead a Carolina Girl to Final Jeopardy, but ...

    you can't make her subtract 8,400 from 15,700.

    Tonight, the returning champion, some kind of professor at UNC, was in second place, $7000 behind but with more than half of first place.

    She got the answer right, while the leader is moping because he got it wrong.

    But she only bet $4,000 - so he won anyway.

    That's not math challenged - that's just week play.

  8. #68
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by cf-62 View Post
    you can't make her subtract 8,400 from 15,700.

    Tonight, the returning champion, some kind of professor at UNC, was in second place, $7000 behind but with more than half of first place.

    She got the answer right, while the leader is moping because he got it wrong.

    But she only bet $4,000 - so he won anyway.

    That's not math challenged - that's just week play.
    wow.

    If anyone's curious, she only had a 19% chance of winning with an optimal bet, and a 0% chance of winning with the one she made.

  9. #69

    He's baaaaaaack!

    Matt Jackson back with the beat down. Steaming into the Tourney of Champs! Fist pumping and weird waving all the way.
    He's a kook, he is.
    Nothing incites bodily violence quicker than a Duke fan turning in your direction and saying 'scoreboard.'

  10. #70
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Ashburn, VA
    Yesterday's final response by Alex Jacobs (who had a runaway) of "What is Aleve?" had my wife and I laughing hysterically.

    For those unaware, an Aleve ad almost always plays right before FJ, but they do it in such a way where at first glance you think the real FJ is beginning, and it ends with Alex J's answer. That's pretty awesome of him to call that out (though I'm not sure if the other Alex - Trebek that is - got the joke, as he probably doesn't watch the actual broadcasts).

  11. #71
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Ashburn, VA
    OK I realized I was running my analysis before on ALL games, whereas it's really only useful to consider regular season games, and not any special weeks.
    Tournaments involving wildcard spots, little kids making silly bets, celebrities playing for charity, etc. all introduce bogus data when trying to determine how one should approach a regular season game as a contestant.

    So, I ignored games containing the following phrases:

    "teen tournament",
    "international championship",
    "celebrity <i>jeopardy!</i>",
    "kids week",
    "college championship",
    "back to school week",
    "million dollar masters",
    "families of freedom",
    "tournament of champions",
    "power players week",
    "million dollar celebrity",
    "the ibm challenge",
    "teachers tournament",
    "battle of the decades",
    " - super jeopardy"

    This cut out about 20% of my games, so I was left with 3,689 regular season games (as best I could tell), with 3,647 not containing ties heading into FJ.

    I will post more detailed analysis later, but first thing I looked at (for non-runaway games) is the % of time the leader made a "cover bet" / "shut out bet" (i.e. guarantees a win if they get FJ correct).

    Leader made cover bet
    ...Crushes: 97.3% [728/748] (!! This should be 100% - I guess some people cramped up on their math)
    2/3 games: 87.2% [362/415]
    3/4 games: 86.2% [231/268]
    4/5 games: 80.6% [941/1167]
    ...
    Total non-runaway (i.e. weighted average): 90.7%

  12. #72
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Nashville, TN
    Quote Originally Posted by cf-62 View Post
    you can't make her subtract 8,400 from 15,700.

    Tonight, the returning champion, some kind of professor at UNC, was in second place, $7000 behind but with more than half of first place.

    She got the answer right, while the leader is moping because he got it wrong.

    But she only bet $4,000 - so he won anyway.

    That's not math challenged - that's just week play.
    She was saving her timeouts.

  13. #73
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    Mary's Place
    I remembered being blown away by all the math / data crunching in this thread and thought I'd give it a bump when I tripped over the link below.

    There was a recent Jeopardy game where the winner had $1, evidently the second time this has happened.
    Once, three people flamed out and all wound up with $0.

    https://www.theringer.com/tv/2017/10...nny-one-dollar

    (Also includes bonus snide comments directed at both Mr. Trebek and assorted contestants. I was thoroughly entertained.)

    "Never get involved in a land quiz in Asia!!"
    "Quality is not an option!"

  14. #74
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    Quote Originally Posted by Turk View Post
    I remembered being blown away by all the math / data crunching in this thread and thought I'd give it a bump when I tripped over the link below.

    There was a recent Jeopardy game where the winner had $1, evidently the second time this has happened.
    Once, three people flamed out and all wound up with $0.

    https://www.theringer.com/tv/2017/10...nny-one-dollar

    (Also includes bonus snide comments directed at both Mr. Trebek and assorted contestants. I was thoroughly entertained.)

    "Never get involved in a land quiz in Asia!!"
    Entertaining article. Thanks for the link.
    "We are not provided with wisdom, we must discover it for ourselves, after a journey through the wilderness which no one else can take for us, an effort which no one can spare us, for our wisdom is the point of view from which we come at last to regard the world." --M. Proust

  15. #75
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by Turk View Post
    I remembered being blown away by all the math / data crunching in this thread and thought I'd give it a bump when I tripped over the link below.

    There was a recent Jeopardy game where the winner had $1, evidently the second time this has happened.
    Once, three people flamed out and all wound up with $0.

    https://www.theringer.com/tv/2017/10...nny-one-dollar

    (Also includes bonus snide comments directed at both Mr. Trebek and assorted contestants. I was thoroughly entertained.)

    "Never get involved in a land quiz in Asia!!"
    It is clear that you are not reading the "Did You See That" thread
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  16. #76
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    New Orleans, Louisiana
    Catching up on the DVR. Did anyone else see the recent episode where Alex Trebek twice referred to contestant Austin Rogers as “Austin Rivers”? He acknowledged the errors before Final and was complimentary to both.

  17. #77
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    Mary's Place
    Given the recent domination of James the Robot and his relatively rare board "strategery", I thought I'd give this a bump...

    I remain impressed by the analysis upstream...
    "Quality is not an option!"

  18. #78
    Well he keeps on crushing the competitors. It's hilarious!
    Nothing incites bodily violence quicker than a Duke fan turning in your direction and saying 'scoreboard.'

Similar Threads

  1. FSU Scandal Thread - Jameis in Jeopardy?
    By Duvall in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 107
    Last Post: 01-27-2016, 08:43 AM
  2. Final Jeopardy
    By madscavenger in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 7
    Last Post: 01-03-2015, 06:09 PM
  3. Duke '05 Grad on Jeopardy Tonight
    By blazindw in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 12
    Last Post: 10-21-2010, 11:55 PM
  4. Front Page Jeopardy! Question
    By SCMatt33 in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 8
    Last Post: 06-11-2010, 02:09 PM
  5. Replies: 14
    Last Post: 07-16-2009, 08:46 AM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •