2015 Bowl speculation

[Olympic Fan]

Well, we're halfway through the (regular) season. I know that the last six games will impact our bowl destination immensely, but if outsiders are starting to think about it, so should we.

When the season opened, ESPN's bowl projections had us in the Independence Bowl -- pretty close to bottom of the barrel.

Going into last week, ESPN had upgraded us into the Pinstripe Bowl. It's new, but it's pretty cool -- New York City ... Yankee Stadium. The bowl likes traditional names -- last year was BC vs. Penn State.

As of this morning, CBS Sports came out with their projections. They also had Duke in the Pinstripe Bowl -- vs. Nebraska:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefoot...ls/predictions

I'd love that -- a replay of the 1955 Orange Bowl (we won 34-7).

Of course, if we win the division, it could be a lot better than that.

A couple of points to consider:

(1) For the last three ACC seasons (the three seasons we've gone to bowls), the selection process was a little screwy. In 2012, two bowl eligible teams (UNC and Miami) were on probation and unable to go. In each of the last two years, FSU qualified for the national championship game/playoff and that opened up another ACC bowl spot.

Keep that in mind as the season plays out -- UNC's punishment from the NCAA is not likely to come in time for this year, but one of Clemson or FSU could qualify for the playoffs, which would open up another ACC spot (Jerry Palm of CBS has Clemson in the playoff as one today).

(2) The ACC champion will play in either the Peach Bowl (probably) or the Fiesta this year ... the Orange is hosting a playoff semifinal.

(3) The ACC Bowl Lineup (in order of selection):

-- The Peach or the Fiesta. The ACC champion gets this automatically, unless the champion is in the playoff. In that case, the CFP Selection Committee chooses the next most attractive ACC team.

-- Citrus Bowl -- this only applies in years when the ACC plays a Big Ten team in the Orange Bowl. That won't happen this year, so the Citrus is out for the ACC.

-- The Russell Athletic Bowl -- my guess is that if we win the Coastal Division and lose in the title game, this is where we end up if the ACC champ makes the playoffs (that would be Clemson or FSU ... the other one would get the Peach/Fiesta ... if the ACC champ doesn't get the playoffs, then Clemson and FSU will split the Peach/Fiesta and the Russell)

The Tier One Bowls (all have equal selection status -- they get together in a room and divvy up the teams they want):

-- Belk, Sun, Pinstripes and Music City or Taxslayer (we get one or the other, not both)

Tier Two Bowls (again, equal status)

-- Military Bowl, Independence Bowl, Quick Lane Bowl

The dregs:

-- St. Petersburg Bowl (if not filled by Conference USA or AAC)

-- The Birmingham Bowl (if not filled by the SEC or AAC)

That's nine certain bowl spots ... with two more likely (the St. Pete and Birmingham Bowls are usually scrambling for at least one team). The ACC has no failed to put a bowl eligible team in a bowl in more than a decade.

I'd be disappointed if we didn't at least earn a Tier One Bowl -- I obviously lust after the ACC spot in the Peach or Fiesta (both are considered top six bowls this season).

I also think it's neat that after 18 years of losing seasons, we've reached the point where the big question is not: "Can we get to a bowl?" But "Where will we go bowling?"

[devildeac]

Still have a minuscule chance here:

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.c...layoff-Sleeper

[Bob Green]

Well, we're halfway through the (regular) season. I know that the last six games will impact our bowl destination immensely, but if outsiders are starting to think about it, so should we.

The Bye Week is upon us so no better time to start the bowl game speculation.

Lots of football left to play but I see us as the #3 team in the ACC pecking order at this point behind Clemson and FSU, which means we should be playing in a Tier 1 bowl game or better. The Russell Athletic Bowl in Orlando on December 29 seems to me to be the objective to set our eyes upon. Of course, I would be elated if we did better.

Notre Dame figures into the equation as well.

[freshmanjs]

Well, we're halfway through the (regular) season. I know that the last six games will impact our bowl destination immensely, but if outsiders are starting to think about it, so should we.

When the season opened, ESPN's bowl projections had us in the Independence Bowl -- pretty close to bottom of the barrel.

Going into last week, ESPN had upgraded us into the Pinstripe Bowl. It's new, but it's pretty cool -- New York City ... Yankee Stadium. The bowl likes traditional names -- last year was BC vs. Penn State.

As of this morning, CBS Sports came out with their projections. They also had Duke in the Pinstripe Bowl -- vs. Nebraska:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefoot...ls/predictions

I'd love that -- a replay of the 1955 Orange Bowl (we won 34-7).

Of course, if we win the division, it could be a lot better than that.

A couple of points to consider:

(1) For the last three ACC seasons (the three seasons we've gone to bowls), the selection process was a little screwy. In 2012, two bowl eligible teams (UNC and Miami) were on probation and unable to go. In each of the last two years, FSU qualified for the national championship game/playoff and that opened up another ACC bowl spot.

Keep that in mind as the season plays out -- UNC's punishment from the NCAA is not likely to come in time for this year, but one of Clemson or FSU could qualify for the playoffs, which would open up another ACC spot (Jerry Palm of CBS has Clemson in the playoff as one today).

(2) The ACC champion will play in either the Peach Bowl (probably) or the Fiesta this year ... the Orange is hosting a playoff semifinal.

(3) The ACC Bowl Lineup (in order of selection):

-- The Peach or the Fiesta. The ACC champion gets this automatically, unless the champion is in the playoff. In that case, the CFP Selection Committee chooses the next most attractive ACC team.

-- Citrus Bowl -- this only applies in years when the ACC plays a Big Ten team in the Orange Bowl. That won't happen this year, so the Citrus is out for the ACC.

-- The Russell Athletic Bowl -- my guess is that if we win the Coastal Division and lose in the title game, this is where we end up if the ACC champ makes the playoffs (that would be Clemson or FSU ... the other one would get the Peach/Fiesta ... if the ACC champ doesn't get the playoffs, then Clemson and FSU will split the Peach/Fiesta and the Russell)

The Tier One Bowls (all have equal selection status -- they get together in a room and divvy up the teams they want):

-- Belk, Sun, Pinstripes and Music City or Taxslayer (we get one or the other, not both)

Tier Two Bowls (again, equal status)

-- Military Bowl, Independence Bowl, Quick Lane Bowl

The dregs:

-- St. Petersburg Bowl (if not filled by Conference USA or AAC)

-- The Birmingham Bowl (if not filled by the SEC or AAC)

That's nine certain bowl spots ... with two more likely (the St. Pete and Birmingham Bowls are usually scrambling for at least one team). The ACC has no failed to put a bowl eligible team in a bowl in more than a decade.

I'd be disappointed if we didn't at least earn a Tier One Bowl -- I obviously lust after the ACC spot in the Peach or Fiesta (both are considered top six bowls this season).

I also think it's neat that after 18 years of losing seasons, we've reached the point where the big question is not: "Can we get to a bowl?" But "Where will we go bowling?"

i think the playoff speculation thread is more interesting

[loran16]

If winning the ACC doesn't happen (yeah probably not), then Russell or Pinstripe would be ideal for me. Russell is in A. a fun place (Orlando) and B. is on a weekend, which makes it doable for me. And I'm from new york, so Pinstripe would be awesome. Here's hoping.

[brevity]

if the ACC champ doesn't get the playoffs, then Clemson and FSU will split the Peach/Fiesta and the Russell

Nice early summary. So... if Duke keeps winning and wants to avoid that Tier 1 popularity contest, how do they break that 2-team strangehold?

1. Win the ACC championship.
2. Win the Coastal division and face an undefeated Atlantic division opponent in the ACC championship. If Duke wins, see #1. If Duke loses, the opponent is probably in the playoff, making room for Duke and the second-best Atlantic team to take the Peach/Fiesta and the Russell.
3. Is there a third realistic possibility? I don't see Duke getting hand-picked over the second-best Atlantic team even if it has more losses.

It's all premature speculation, seeing as how Pittsburgh and UNC can say the same thing if they keep winning.

[Bob Green]

Russell is in A. a fun place (Orlando) and B. is on a weekend, which makes it doable for me.

The Russell Athletic Bowl is on Tuesday December 29 according to the bowl game schedule at ESPN.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/...-bowl-schedule

[loran16]

The Russell Athletic Bowl is on Tuesday December 29 according to the bowl game schedule at ESPN.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/...-bowl-schedule

You are correct. Bummer - was looking at last year's schedule apparently.

[SCMatt33]

A few other things to keep in mind. Notre Dame can spoil the party here. I'm not 100% on this, but I'm pretty sure that unless ND is in one of the Access Bowls (Playoff, Fiesta, or Peach, others not possible due to contracts with the other 4 power 5 conferences), they will take up an ACC bowl slot. With that in mind, it would seem quite possible that Duke does everything right, but ends up in tier 1 due to ND, Clemson And FSU getting two spots in playoff/access, plus the Russell spot. I'm also not sure on this, but I believe it's technically possible that all three of ND, Clemson, and FSU makes the playoff/access bowls as the other 4 power conferences get their slots in the Rose/Sugar bowls, meaning that only ACC and Group of 5 have a guaranteed slot in the Peach/Fiesta bowls. The other two should be true at larges. I'd say it's not very likely that all three get in, but it's technically possible, especially if one of the three makes the playoff.

[loran16]

A few other things to keep in mind. Notre Dame can spoil the party here. I'm not 100% on this, but I'm pretty sure that unless ND is in one of the Access Bowls (Playoff, Fiesta, or Peach, others not possible due to contracts with the other 4 power 5 conferences), they will take up an ACC bowl slot. With that in mind, it would seem quite possible that Duke does everything right, but ends up in tier 1 due to ND, Clemson And FSU getting two spots in playoff/access, plus the Russell spot. I'm also not sure on this, but I believe it's technically possible that all three of ND, Clemson, and FSU makes the playoff/access bowls as the other 4 power conferences get their slots in the Rose/Sugar bowls, meaning that only ACC and Group of 5 have a guaranteed slot in the Peach/Fiesta bowls. The other two should be true at larges. I'd say it's not very likely that all three get in, but it's technically possible, especially if one of the three makes the playoff.

I believe that if Clemson makes the playoff, Notre Dame can take the ACC's BCS spot, leaving FSU out of the BCS position (assuming FSU goes 11-1). So it does seem extremely likely Duke winds up in Tier 1.

That said, if Duke wants say pinstripe instead of Sun (again), having Notre Dame in Russell helps.

[SCMatt33]

I believe that if Clemson makes the playoff, Notre Dame can take the ACC's BCS spot, leaving FSU out of the BCS position (assuming FSU goes 11-1). So it does seem extremely likely Duke winds up in Tier 1.

That said, if Duke wants say pinstripe instead of Sun (again), having Notre Dame in Russell helps.

So is there a reason that you couldn't have Clemson in the Playoff, ND in Fiesta and FSU in peach, especially if both have one loss, you're probably down to 2 loss teams from other conferences at that point, or is it just that likely that a 2 loss team gets picked ahead of fsu

[BigWayne]

I believe that if Clemson makes the playoff, Notre Dame can take the ACC's BCS spot, leaving FSU out of the BCS position (assuming FSU goes 11-1).

I didn't go dig up proof, but I am pretty sure this is not the case. ND only gets in the top 6 CFP related bowls on their own. The Russell slot is the highest ACC slot they can take.

[Native]

As a recent NYC transplant, keeping my fingers crossed for the Pinstripe Bowl.

Of course, if we get a more "prestigious" bowl, you won't hear complaints from me.

[Olympic Fan]

I didn't go dig up proof, but I am pretty sure this is not the case. ND only gets in the top 6 CFP related bowls on their own. The Russell slot is the highest ACC slot they can take.

You are correct -- Notre Dame can have no impact on the ACC's top six spot (this year the Peach or the Fiesta). The ACC champ (or the substitute if the ACC champ is in the playoff) can play against Notre Dame in the Peach/Fiesta, but Notre Dame can't take the ACC slot.

Notre Dame CAN take an ACC bowl berth from the Citrus (which doesn't apply this year) down. There is one caveat -- the old "one-win rule" still applies to Notre Dame. If Duke was 9-3 and Notre Dame was 7-5, no ACC bowl could take Notre Dame ahead of us. If we were 9-3 and they are 8-4, then they could -- and would -- be picked ahead of us. That rule used to apply to every ACC bowl selection, but now it ONLY applies to Notre Dame.

BTW: Every year when bowl selection comes around there are fans who worry that because of our small attendance and small fan base, that we will get screwed. That hasn't happened yet -- and Duke had good turnouts in Charlotte and Atlanta (and the Sun Bowl doesn't expect much of a turnout from Eastern teams), plus out TV ratings have been good -- and for most bowls these days, that's more important than attendance.

I'm confident that we'll get the bowl we earn on the field.

[OldPhiKap]

You are correct -- Notre Dame can have no impact on the ACC's top six spot (this year the Peach or the Fiesta). The ACC champ (or the substitute if the ACC champ is in the playoff) can play against Notre Dame in the Peach/Fiesta, but Notre Dame can't take the ACC slot.

Notre Dame CAN take an ACC bowl berth from the Citrus (which doesn't apply this year) down. There is one caveat -- the old "one-win rule" still applies to Notre Dame. If Duke was 9-3 and Notre Dame was 7-5, no ACC bowl could take Notre Dame ahead of us. If we were 9-3 and they are 8-4, then they could -- and would -- be picked ahead of us. That rule used to apply to every ACC bowl selection, but now it ONLY applies to Notre Dame.

BTW: Every year when bowl selection comes around there are fans who worry that because of our small attendance and small fan base, that we will get screwed. That hasn't happened yet -- and Duke had good turnouts in Charlotte and Atlanta (and the Sun Bowl doesn't expect much of a turnout from Eastern teams), plus out TV ratings have been good -- and for most bowls these days, that's more important than attendance.

I'm confident that we'll get the bowl we earn on the field.

There was a pretty sizeable Duke turnout in El Paso. Certainly not as large as our opponent from nearby Arizona, but more than respectable.

But otherwise agree. So far, Duke has been treated fairly and we have shown up for the games. We need to keep up the attendance as best we can, because that is a huge part of the equation.

And of course the obvious -- get to the championship and win, no one can deny you.

[budwom]

the bowl picture now is marginally more clear than it was two months ago. I'd say we need to get to the end of October before
the picture begins to clarify a bit.

[duke blue brewcrew]

The Bye Week is upon us so no better time to start the bowl game speculation.

Lots of football left to play but I see us as the #3 team in the ACC pecking order at this point behind Clemson and FSU, which means we should be playing in a Tier 1 bowl game or better. The Russell Athletic Bowl in Orlando on December 29 seems to me to be the objective to set our eyes upon. Of course, I would be elated if we did better.

Notre Dame figures into the equation as well.

With Notre Dame not a full fledged member of the ACC, how does their bowl prospects impact the ACC teams in the hunt for a bowl?

[Bob Green]

With Notre Dame not a full fledged member of the ACC, how does their bowl prospects impact the ACC teams in the hunt for a bowl?

If you click on the ESPN bowl schedule link I posted above, you will see how Notre Dame impacts ACC teams. For example, the Russell Athletic Bowl:

Russell Athletic Bowl: ACC/ND vs. Big 12
Orlando | Orlando Citrus Bowl
5:30 p.m. on ESPN

or the Hyundai Sun Bowl:

Hyundai Sun Bowl: ACC/ND vs. Pac-12
El Paso, Texas | Sun Bowl
2 p.m. on CBS

or the Military Bowl:

Military Bowl presented By Northrop Grumman: ACC/ND vs. American
Annapolis, Maryland | Jack Stephens Field at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
2:30 p.m. on ESPN

The ACC Bowl games are also Notre Dame bowl games.

[throatybeard]

-- Belk, Sun, Pinstripes and Music City or Taxslayer (we get one or the other, not both)

Crud. I was hoping we'd participate in two different bowls. That way I could go to whichever one wasn't in El Paso or Florida.

[CameronBornAndBred]

You are correct -- Notre Dame can have no impact on the ACC's top six spot (this year the Peach or the Fiesta). The ACC champ (or the substitute if the ACC champ is in the playoff) can play against Notre Dame in the Peach/Fiesta, but Notre Dame can't take the ACC slot.

I have no idea if you are right or wrong, but are you sure that you are right? ESPN's ACC blog has ND slotted for the Fiesta in their predictions.

Capital One Orange Bowl (College Football Playoff): Clemson Tigers


Fiesta Bowl (New Year’s Six): Notre Dame Fighting Irish


Russell Athletic Bowl: Florida State Seminoles


TaxSlayer Bowl: Miami Hurricanes


Belk Bowl: North Carolina Tar Heels


New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Duke Blue Devils


Hyundai Bowl: Pittsburgh Panthers


Quick Lane Bowl: Louisville Cardinals


Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman: NC State Wolfpack


Camping World Independence Bowl: Virginia Tech Hokies


Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/i...e-playoff-hunt

I would assume under your scenario of ND not being able to take the slot, but still being able to be there against an ACC team, then there should be two teams listed.