Tyus Jones Draft Vigil

[DavidBenAkiva]

It's probably way overdue, but I figured I would start a dedicated thread to Tyus Jones and declaring for the NBA.

The NBA deadline to declare for the draft is April 26th at 11:59 pm Eastern. We will know one way or another in 12 days at the latest. There's been various reports that Tyus is shopping around for an agent. In his most recent remarks, he has stated that he hasn't made up his mind yet.

In recruiting news, Duke has reached out to 2016 top-10 PG Derryck Thornton and have, on more than one occasion, suggested her reclassify to 2015. This is seen by many as a sign that Tyus might declare for the draft. In an interesting twist, Thornton's parents seem to think coming to school a year early is a good idea... for him to redshirt and develop. So maybe they are not mutually exclusive plans after all? Probably, but maybe not. Who know.

What do we think? Is Duke in a better position the longer it takes Tyus to make his decision?

[duke blue brewcrew]

It's probably way overdue, but I figured I would start a dedicated thread to Tyus Jones and declaring for the NBA.

The NBA deadline to declare for the draft is April 26th at 11:59 pm Eastern. We will know one way or another in 12 days at the latest. There's been various reports that Tyus is shopping around for an agent. In his most recent remarks, he has stated that he hasn't made up his mind yet.

In recruiting news, Duke has reached out to 2016 top-10 PG Derryck Thornton and have, on more than one occasion, suggested her reclassify to 2015. This is seen by many as a sign that Tyus might declare for the draft. In an interesting twist, Thornton's parents seem to think coming to school a year early is a good idea... for him to redshirt and develop. So maybe they are not mutually exclusive plans after all? Probably, but maybe not. Who know.

What do we think? Is Duke in a better position the longer it takes Tyus to make his decision?

The PG position is definitely the massive question to be answered for Duke. Even if Tyus stays, the Blue Devils have no back-up, but without him they are in some trouble IMHO. Selfishly, I would love to see Tyus stay and Thornton reclassify, come to Duke and be ready to play the moment he sets foot on campus. If the stars aligned, and that came together with the possible addition of Ingram (assuming Winslow departure)...I think the sky is the limit for next year with all of the other pieces in place. Without Jones (and hopefully Thornton) the Blue Devils are a rudderless collection of talent.

[Duke95]

I honestly have no idea. If I guessed, I'd be pulling something out of my a**, and since this is the post-season and I've been doing it all year, the cupboard's getting pretty bare in there. Barely enough room for my head to fit.

[Olympic Fan]

I don't want to raise any false hope or anything, but the fact is that although Justise Winslow is widely assumed to be gone, he still has not declared for the draft.

It's getting a little funny. I was told that he was going to announce his decision last Friday. When that didn't happen, I was told it would be delayed over the weekend and he would declare Monday.

That didn't happen either. It could happen this afternoon. Maybe tomorrow or the next day ...

Now, I'm not saying he is going to come back -- with projections putting him in the 5-10 range in the draft (and a few higher than that), I can't imagine him returning.

But as long as we're having a vigil for Tyus (who is also likely to go), we might as well have one for Justise until he makes it official.

[jimsumner]

Duke thinks Kennard can play ACC-level point guard. If Ty does declare for the draft, I think Duke would augment that position with one of Thornton, Murray or a grad-student.

None of whom likely would be as good in 2016 as would be a sophomore Tyus Jones.

So a vigil is warranted, IMO.

[flyingdutchdevil]

FWIW, I am completely expecting Tyus to be gone. One, because I'd rather be pleasantly surprised that he comes back rather than disappointed that he left. Two, because I really believe he should go. Tyus has done all that a freshman could do: become All-ACC, MVP of the Regional and Final Four, win a natty. It's impressive. And, unfortunately, his draft stock is not dictated by his talent but rather this physical qualities. He isn't tall. He isn't big. He isn't fast. I know posters will argue, "but another year and Tyus can improve his athleticism!" It's not that easy at all. Plus, he isn't going to have the body nor the athleticism of a Derrick Rose or Chris Paul in one year.

[KandG]

FWIW, I am completely expecting Tyus to be gone. One, because I'd rather be pleasantly surprised that he comes back rather than disappointed that he left. Two, because I really believe he should go. Tyus has done all that a freshman could do: become All-ACC, MVP of the Regional and Final Four, win a natty. It's impressive. And, unfortunately, his draft stock is not dictated by his talent but rather this physical qualities. He isn't tall. He isn't big. He isn't fast. I know posters will argue, "but another year and Tyus can improve his athleticism!" It's not that easy at all. Plus, he isn't going to have the body nor the athleticism of a Derrick Rose or Chris Paul in one year.

Yup, all of this. A best case super-optimistic scenario for him would be improving from say, 22nd in this year's draft to 18 or 17 next year if he has a truly spectacular sophomore year, because the 2016 draft is (supposedly) much weaker. The increase in money from that situation (again, a super best case situation) doesn't mitigate the risk from being exposed/picked apart from playing with (slightly) less talented teammates and having his athleticism examined even more closely after another year of college competition. Not to mention foregoing the money from not declaring a year sooner.

I'd go if I were him. I'd love for Tyus to come back because I love watching him play for Duke, and hey, stranger things have happened -- Jabari ended up declaring, but he truly agonized about his decision until very late even though he was a no-brainer top pick. But undersized point guards with athletic limitations need every advantage they can get going into the draft, and Tyus has just about all of the momentum right now.

[miramar]

Duke thinks Kennard can play ACC-level point guard. If Ty does declare for the draft, I think Duke would augment that position with one of Thornton, Murray or a grad-student.

Does anyone know whether Duke is looking at any specific grad students (at point guard or any other position) or whether any of them are interested in Duke?

[Troublemaker]

FWIW, I am completely expecting Tyus to be gone. One, because I'd rather be pleasantly surprised that he comes back rather than disappointed that he left. Two, because I really believe he should go. Tyus has done all that a freshman could do: become All-ACC, MVP of the Regional and Final Four, win a natty. It's impressive. And, unfortunately, his draft stock is not dictated by his talent but rather this physical qualities. He isn't tall. He isn't big. He isn't fast. I know posters will argue, "but another year and Tyus can improve his athleticism!" It's not that easy at all. Plus, he isn't going to have the body nor the athleticism of a Derrick Rose or Chris Paul in one year.

The calculations are not quite that simple, FDD.

Tyus can go earlier in a weaker 2016 NBA Draft, moving from mid-20s to mid-teens. Check out DraftExpress's 2016 mock to get a sense of the weakness of that draft: http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2016

In the process of moving from mid-20s to mid-teens (projections that have margins of error), he would also be reducing his odds of falling to the 2nd round from ~5% to ~0%.

Finally, he gets one more year of development before going into the NBA. Coach K said the following in a press conference last year (which I'll be paraphrasing). For high draft picks like Jabari, Jahlil, and Justise, the NBA team that selects them will have made a large investment in them and thus have the incentive to develop them to the fullest and see it through the entire rookie contract. For later draft picks, they have to have the ability to hit the ground running as rookies because the investment in them isn't as large. And first-round NBA contracts these days are only guaranteed for two years.

[COYS]

Finally, he gets one more year of development before going into the NBA. Coach K said the following in a press conference last year (which I'll be paraphrasing). For high draft picks like Jabari, Jahlil, and Justise, the NBA team that selects them will have made a large investment in them and thus have the incentive to develop them to the fullest and see it through the entire rookie contract. For later draft picks, they have to have the ability to hit the ground running as rookies because the investment in them isn't as large. And first-round NBA contracts these days are only guaranteed for two years.

These are all very good points. I'm certainly in the camp that thinks that it's a wise decision to cash in when your stock is hot, so I would be inclined to think it a smart move for Tyus to declare. However, it really is important to consider the situation he will be getting into. While he probably won't dramatically improve his athleticism (although you CAN do things to improve lateral quickness, first step, etc, even if your sprint speed and game-situation leaping ability aren't likely to improve too terribly much), he can definitely get stronger and become a more consistent shooter. He shot really well as a freshman, but he still wasn't the go to scorer. If he can become a dead-eye shooter from range and add that to his otherwise nifty bag of tricks, I think NBA teams will be even more likely to have confidence that he can hack it at the NBA level.

Another way he can improve his stock is through improving his assist numbers. Tyus put up good assist numbers for a freshman, but I think he's capable of even more. While Duke, as a team, did look to fast break when it could, we actually didn't play a particularly remarkable pace this past season. In addition, many of our possessions started with post up attempts for Jahlil. With a contingent of mobile bigs (Jeter, Amile, and Marshall) plus the need for Tyus to create more offense, I could actually see us playing at a faster pace next year while also using Tyus as the center of our half-court offense all game long. It is certainly possible he could put up even more impressive assist totals.

All this is to say that, in my opinion, Tyus has no bad choices, here. Come back and be a star at the college level with the ability to shore up a few areas that might hinder him at the next level, thus increasing his chances of sticking once he gets there (strength, shooting, defense) or go out on the highest note possible and realize his dream of playing in the NBA.

[bob blue devil]

In the process of moving from mid-20s to mid-teens (projections that have margins of error), he would also be reducing his odds of falling to the 2nd round from ~5% to ~0%.

I agree that weaker draft next year should be a consideration, but even with that in mind his odds of falling to the second round are much greater next year. Whether it's for the better or worse, people will have a different view of tyus's pro prospects at the end of his hypothetical sophomore year. If it's for the better, great, but if its for the worse, he very easily slides into the second round or worse. I think this dynamic makes it more compelling for a projected mid-late first rounder to go, as you are really rolling the dice on being a first rounder if you come back (see Harrison bros and jmm).

[rtnorthrup]

The calculations are not quite that simple, FDD.

Tyus can go earlier in a weaker 2016 NBA Draft, moving from mid-20s to mid-teens. Check out DraftExpress's 2016 mock to get a sense of the weakness of that draft: http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2016

In the process of moving from mid-20s to mid-teens (projections that have margins of error), he would also be reducing his odds of falling to the 2nd round from ~5% to ~0%.

Finally, he gets one more year of development before going into the NBA. Coach K said the following in a press conference last year (which I'll be paraphrasing). For high draft picks like Jabari, Jahlil, and Justise, the NBA team that selects them will have made a large investment in them and thus have the incentive to develop them to the fullest and see it through the entire rookie contract. For later draft picks, they have to have the ability to hit the ground running as rookies because the investment in them isn't as large. And first-round NBA contracts these days are only guaranteed for two years.

Weirdly, I don't know that moving up from mid-20s to mid-teens is necessarily a good thing. You go from getting drafted by a team in contention for playoffs to a mediocre rebuilding team. I know the first contract will be higher, but ultimately, if you land in the right spot in the mid-20s you could have a better career.

Personally, I don't know that Tyus comes back. Seems like the big negative on him from NBA scouts is his size. I don't see him getting any bigger by staying in college next year. I think he has shown, as a basketball player, what he can do. I would think that he would only hurt himself if he came back and had a down year. Unfortunately, it seems the longer you play in college, the more the scouts pick apart your game.

[Duke95]

I agree that weaker draft next year should be a consideration, but even with that in mind his odds of falling to the second round are much greater next year. Whether it's for the better or worse, people will have a different view of tyus's pro prospects at the end of his hypothetical sophomore year. If it's for the better, great, but if its for the worse, he very easily slides into the second round or worse. I think this dynamic makes it more compelling for a projected mid-late first rounder to go, as you are really rolling the dice on being a first rounder if you come back (see Harrison bros and jmm).

In all fairness, there is a HUGE difference between the Harrisons, JMM, and Tyus Jones.

Next year, he would be the only PG option. He's already established himself as a clutch performer and the MOP at the FF. I think, by most accounts, next year will be a weak draft and he may sneak into the lottery with a huge year. But, there is always a risk, and his stock is at a high right now. Very tough call, IMO.

[Troublemaker]

I agree that weaker draft next year should be a consideration, but even with that in mind his odds of falling to the second round are much greater next year. Whether it's for the better or worse, people will have a different view of tyus's pro prospects at the end of his hypothetical sophomore year. If it's for the better, great, but if its for the worse, he very easily slides into the second round or worse. I think this dynamic makes it more compelling for a projected mid-late first rounder to go, as you are really rolling the dice on being a first rounder if you come back (see Harrison bros and jmm).

It's true that if Tyus returns, he will have get better. I'm very confident that he will, unlike JMM and the Harrisons.

But, yes, that needs to be part of the calculations for Tyus. "Am I a stud that's going to have an All-American type season next year?" I think he would answer yes, and I'd agree with him.

[COYS]

In all fairness, there is a HUGE difference between the Harrisons, JMM, and Tyus Jones.

Next year, he would be the only PG option. He's already established himself as a clutch performer and the MOP at the FF. I think, by most accounts, next year will be a weak draft and he may sneak into the lottery with a huge year. But, there is always a risk, and his stock is at a high right now. Very tough call, IMO.

Very true. The Harrisons, JMM, Josh McRoberts etc, were all guys who were expected to become stars after standing more or less on the sidelines through much of their freshman seasons (the Harrisons maybe a little less, as they had already underwhelmed a bit). All of those guys were supposed to be lottery or even top 10 picks who started as role players and came back to prove they could be stars. Tyus was never projected to go that high because the questions of his athleticism were already being asked. On the other hand, he proved he could star at the college level and ran the show from day one. He even took over the scoring load in almost all of Duke's biggest games. In many ways, he accomplished far more than those other guys in his freshman season (the Harrisons did come on strong during UK's runner-up finish last year). The biggest risk for him is that he suffers some sort of shooting slump or scoring drought that makes people question whether he can score at the NBA level. Therefore, I think Tyus is risks running into the same fate that befell Kyle Singler, who's senior year shooting slump probably cost him a couple spots as he fell from the late first to the early second.

Basically, I think Tyus can
1) Leave and take advantage of his current draft stock
2) Stay one year longer because he really likes college and, barring injury, probably doesn't stand to raise or lower his stock THAT much
3) Stay because he wants to get stronger, become a better shooter, be the go-to guy and possibly jump significantly higher in next year's much weaker draft. The risk is that he doesn't improve and his stock falls, but this risk is mitigated a bit by (presumably) weaker competition in the 2016 draft.

All good options.

[gurufrisbee]

Justise hasn't declared yet either - are we vigil-ing him, too?

[flyingdutchdevil]

The calculations are not quite that simple, FDD.

Tyus can go earlier in a weaker 2016 NBA Draft, moving from mid-20s to mid-teens. Check out DraftExpress's 2016 mock to get a sense of the weakness of that draft: http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2016

In the process of moving from mid-20s to mid-teens (projections that have margins of error), he would also be reducing his odds of falling to the 2nd round from ~5% to ~0%.

Finally, he gets one more year of development before going into the NBA. Coach K said the following in a press conference last year (which I'll be paraphrasing). For high draft picks like Jabari, Jahlil, and Justise, the NBA team that selects them will have made a large investment in them and thus have the incentive to develop them to the fullest and see it through the entire rookie contract. For later draft picks, they have to have the ability to hit the ground running as rookies because the investment in them isn't as large. And first-round NBA contracts these days are only guaranteed for two years.

This year's draft wasn't supposed to be that great, either. With all the talent that left last year, this year was supposed to be about "rebuilding". But it didn't pan out that way. Towns, Winslow, and Russell exploded. Dekker and Kaminsky improved more than most thought. Kentucky had a super mass exodus (not sure that many people expected 7 to leave).

The truth is, drafts are very difficult to predict, even with one year in advance. Sure, the McAA's didn't look great, but a lot can happen in a year. And the draft is based on potential, not performance. So, an athletic dude like Myles Turner who had a mediocre year would get draft before Tyus every time because of his potential, not his performance.

And you're right that NBA teams prioritize higher draft picks, but the NBA also offers a ton of services that college can't: better practice facilities, better physical trainers, more time for basketball, better analytics, better nutritionists. I am under the impression that players can develop better in the NBA than in college. The only upside to college, in my opinion, is the coaching and exposure.

[bob blue devil]

i'll add one comment in response to the general sentiment i'm getting from the posts - i think (just my opinion) that people have too much confidence in their ability to predict tyus's draft stock one year forward. there are so many variables/uncertainties. the biggest to start is a nearly entirely different set of teammates - yes, i think he would succeed, but the range of outcomes is quite large (particularly relative to the narrow difference between a mid-late first rounder and an early second rounder).

[Duke95]

i'll add one comment in response to the general sentiment i'm getting from the posts - i think (just my opinion) that people have too much confidence in their ability to predict tyus's draft stock one year forward. there are so many variables/uncertainties. the biggest to start is a nearly entirely different set of teammates - yes, i think he would succeed, but the range of outcomes is quite large (particularly relative to the narrow difference between a mid-late first rounder and an early second rounder).

I case I gave off any other impression, my prediction interval for Tyus' draft position is just slightly more narrow than the Mississippi river at its widest point. But as I indicated, I have no peer when it comes to talking out of my a**.

One thing I will say is that TJ should take all the time he needs to make the best decision for him. He should not feel rushed even in the slightest. He needs to gather as much information as possible to make the best decision for his future. If he decides to go or stay on the last day, that's fine. He should do what's best for him. He's already given Duke fans some incredible memories, and even if he had not, I'd say the same thing.

[JasonEvans]

Tyus can go earlier in a weaker 2016 NBA Draft, moving from mid-20s to mid-teens. Check out DraftExpress's 2016 mock to get a sense of the weakness of that draft: http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2016

What Tyus should be looking at is where would he go this year, in what is widely considered a fairly loaded draft which includes 4 PG prospects considered stronger than or similar to Tyus in D'Angelo Russell, Emmanuel Mudiay, Cameron Payne, and Jerian Grant; versus where would he go next year in what will be a weaker draft and a draft in which there are not expected to be many good PGs. Melo Trimlbe is the only PG projected to be a top 15 pick in the 2016 draft and the top high school PG is Kentucky's Isaiah Taylor who is barely a top 15 recruit, let alone a one-and-done lottery prospect. In other words, not only is 2016 going to be weak overall, but it is expected to be especially weak for PGs.

I have been looking a great deal at draft projections for 2016 and think that if Tyus came back and had a strong soph campaign -- averaged better than 15 ppg with an efficient offensive season -- then he would be looking at being a top 10 pick next year.

Being selected #10 next year would mean a contract worth about $2.2 million per year. The #20 pick in this year's draft will make about $1.2 million. While it is true that Tyus would become a free agent a year faster if he came out this year versus next year, the free agent dollars are so widely scattered and so dependent upon your performance once you reach the NBA that I find it impossible to project how that impacts a career. The race to free agency is not a factor to me because it is darn near impossible to project how that will impact career earnings of any college player. Xavier Henry rushed to the NBA in 2010 after one year at Kansas. He was drafted #12 and made $6+ mil over his first three years but has barely played since then and is bouncing around the fringe of the NBA at this point earning the NBA minimum. That same year, in 2010, Klay Thompson decide to come back for one more year of college hoops though eh was projected as a mid-first rounder. He came out the next year in 2011 and was picked #11, earning $6+ mil over his rookie deal. But the new deal he just signed will make him more than $70 mil over the next 4 seasons. Projecting free agent contracts is so widely varied, it just should not be part of the calculus for a draft decision.

So, I believe that because of the relative weakness of the 2016 draft and its lack of quality PGs, Tyus should come back. Of course, coming back does run the risk he has a disappointing season where he shoots a lot more but is much less efficient and looks a bit lost without his stud teammates. In many cases, this would be a very realistic concern, but I think Tyus' performance in the national title game when Jah and Justise were both in major foul trouble and not a part of the offense, would seem to mitigate those concerns. Basically, the team that Duke used to beat Wisconsin was largely Tyus and Grayson creating on offensive while Mike and Amile created havoc on D. That's the core of the team Duke will have next year. I think the odds that Tyus comes back and has a disappointing season are pretty darn low.

Weirdly, I don't know that moving up from mid-20s to mid-teens is necessarily a good thing. You go from getting drafted by a team in contention for playoffs to a mediocre rebuilding team. I know the first contract will be higher, but ultimately, if you land in the right spot in the mid-20s you could have a better career.

I disagree with this. Being drafted later in the first round almost certainly means you will find yourself on a team that is pretty well set at PG. You just don't get to be a playoff team without a good PG in the current NBA. So, being taken in the 20s probably means Tyus is looking at very limited minutes for a contender that cannot waste time on a kid learning the game. Being taken in the lower teens means the exact opposite. There is likely to be more playing time opportunity.

So, to sum up, I believe that though there is a small risk of poor play hampering his draft stock if Tyus comes back, I think there is some really nice upside available to him if he returns to school.

-Jason "I'm sure Tyus is reading this thread... right? HA!" Evans