Originally Posted by
Olympic Fan
Agree that it's way too early, especially for Duke (heck, we don't even know officially that Tyus and Justise are going!)
But you wanted a general take. Here are a few of my opinions:
-- Virginia, not North Carolina, is the clearcut No. 1 going into next season -- unless Justin Anderson turns pro. The Cavs were significantly better than the Tar Heels last season (the NCAA stumble not withstanding) and both have suffered similar losses so far (Darius Atkins and JP Tokoto ... although I admit that Adkins was better). The final standing might depend on the schedule, but I think it's likely Virginia is significantly better again.
-- I think NC State is a solid 3. They lose only Ralston Turner and have West Virginia transfer Terry Henderson ready to take his place. Barber and Lacey are a dynamite backcourt and Gott's young big men will only get better. My only concern is how badly State handled the high preseason expectations in 2013 after a Sweet 16 run in 2012. They were preseason ACC favorite and top 10 and barely snuck into the NCAA Tournament.
-- I'd replace Miami with FSU at the bottom of tier one. Dwayne Bacon is going to make a huge difference at FSU -- another scorer to go along with Rathan-Mayes. And they have better balanced talent, including 3 7-footers (Turpin is gone, but they add a 7-4 guy), Miami still lacks size to balance their plethora of guards, I'd keep Miami near the top of the second echelon.
--Of the lower echelon teams, the one with the best chance to reach the middle echelon is Virginia Tech. There were a lot of good freshmen in Blacksburg (did you see Jalen Hudson in the ACC Tournament!), plus they add ACC veteran Seth Allen and a couple of big guys, which they need. I see BC still at the very bottom ... they lose more senior talent than anybody. If Hanlon goes pro, they're in the dumper.
-- Right now, Duke and Louisville are the two most volatile teams out there. Both lose a ton but both are premier programs with the ability to reload quickly. They'll have to. I think Duke is in a little bit better shape -- a better core and a chance at better additions.