Well, I finally pulled the trigger and voted. What a tough choice!
There are two films that I think are locks at this point: Avengers 2 and Inside Out. We all know about Avengers but the buzz I am hearing on Inside Out is incredible. Pixar obviously has a great track record and this is supposed to be like Toy Story, Up, and Finding Nemo in that it will have themes that appeal to adults and children in ways that Cars and Brave did not.
Avengers 2 will earn more than $500 million and I think
Inside Out makes over $300 million.
Next, I went with the dino flick, Jurassic World. The latest trailer really sold me as it seems to be setting up dinosaurs as bad guys and good guys, which could be a ton of fun. The director, relatively unknown Colin Trevorrow, made a small flick called Safety Not Guaranteed that I really liked but the writing team of Rick Jaffa and Amanda Silver who did both of the recent Planet of the Apes films (which contained brilliant scripts). I also think Chris Pratt may be the hottest actor in Hollywood right now and audiences will come out to see him play an Earth-bound versiuon of Star Lord. I bet that
Jurassic World makes more than $250 million dollars.
My fourth choice was Tomorrowland, and I am basically betting on Brad Bird here. Bid is yet to make a film that was anything but excellent. To me, this was like a few years back when I bet on Christopher Nolan making Inception, which was
not a popular pick in our poll in 2010 (only 3 people voted for it, me, Big Pappa, and 05Dukie). I picked it because everything Nolan had done was fabulous and so I figured Inception would be fabulous too. Well, I'm picking Tomorrowland for the same reason. I also loved the latest trailer which showed off both cool action and funky gizmos that seem to me like they will appeal to kids. I'm thinking this one may have the same kind of crossover age appeal that many Pixar films do. George Clooney bringing in the adult audience will help as well.
I see Tomorrowland making over $240 million by displaying really strong legs, not just a hue opening weekend (I bet it only does about $60-70 mil for an opening weekend, which may be only the 7th or 8th best opening weekend this summer).
Finally, I spent a long time wrestling among Ted 2, Terminator, Minions, Ant Man, Mission Impossible, Fantastic Four.
I decided pretty early on not to pick Minions because I personally didn't like Despicable Me 2, which is just the dumbest reason ever not to pick a film. DM2 made like $350 mil at the boxoffice. I'm an idiot for not taking Minions and I am pretty sure they will be in the Top 5, but I just couldn't bring myself to do it. I think they are too cute and I just can't imagine it is going to be watchable for anyone over the age of 12. The screenplay was written by the same guy who did Puss in Boots and Hop, both of which were terrible animated films with horrible, unfunny scripts. I also think this is a blatant money-grab by Universal. I'm probably going to be wrong, but I hope this movie really disappoints.
I'm thinking that A Million Ways to Die in the West killed any momentum Ted 2 might have had and I'm just not sensing much excitement for the raunchy bear sequel. I suspect audiences are not interested in yet another Terminator reboot, especially with no big stars other than social security Arnold and with a relatively uninspiring directing/screenwriting team. Tom Cruise is largely boxoffice poison at this point (put any other action star in Edge of Tomorrow and it makes $250 mil) though I like the writing/directing folks behind MI5. If not for Cruise, I'd probably pick this flick. I already spoke about my concerns over the reshoots for Fantastic Four and I worry about the late summer release date.
So that brings me to the film I picked, Ant Man. Frankly, a couple weeks ago I really wasn't even considering this for my top 5. I am yet to see Paul Rudd carry a mainstream hit film and I did not like that the wonderful Edgar Wright was given the boot as director. But, the screenwriting team has some real heavy hitters on it. The thing that pushed it over the top for me was word from Joss Whedon thought the original script for Ant Man was one of the best scripts he ever read. Now, that script has been re-written some because Marvel wanted more action in it, but I am betting that Marvel kept much of it in place. If Joss thought it was brilliant, I can't imagine they scrapped the whole thing. Edgar Wright, who wrote the original script, does get lead screenwriter credit on the current film. Anyway, last summer taught us that Marvel can do no wrong at this point and I bet that a funny Ant Man film following up on the goodwill likely to be generated by Avengers 2 is going to power Ant Man into our Top 5. I am betting
Ant Man makes more than $230 million at the domestic boxoffice.
Well, that's it. That's what I voted for and why. As we have noted many times, this is the toughest contest yet with so many legitimate contenders. I'll be thrilled if I get 4 out of 5 right. I also suspect I am dead wrong about Minions and will regret not voting for it. Ahh well, you win some, you lose some.
-Jason "only a couple days left to get in your votes" Evans