MBB: Duke vs. Gonzaga, Reg Final (Sun 5:05 pm ET, CBS) Pregame/Ingame Thread

[KandG]

Gasaway over at ESPN is picking the Zags:

However, as strong as the Blue Devils have been on D in the tournament, Coach K's guys have been susceptible on the defensive glass the past three games. (Utah, for example, pulled down 44 percent of its missed shots.) And I like the Zags' chances to pick up just enough offensive boards to win what I expect will be a high-scoring and highly entertaining game.


http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-coll...michigan-state

[OldPhiKap]

The Zags seem like the fashionable pick, and many had them winning the region anyway.

Time to make some folks unhappy I guess.

Go Duke!

[cptnflash]

Gasaway over at ESPN is picking the Zags:

However, as strong as the Blue Devils have been on D in the tournament, Coach K's guys have been susceptible on the defensive glass the past three games. (Utah, for example, pulled down 44 percent of its missed shots.) And I like the Zags' chances to pick up just enough offensive boards to win what I expect will be a high-scoring and highly entertaining game.


http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-coll...michigan-state

This is a very reasonable concern. With Amile most likely playing limited minutes once again, our defensive rebounding is a bit suspect. Justice will need to continue to hit the defensive glass hard, and we'll need rebounding contributions from our smaller guards as well.

[Henderson]

This is a very reasonable concern. With Amile most likely playing limited minutes once again, our defensive rebounding is a bit suspect. Justice will need to continue to hit the defensive glass hard, and we'll need rebounding contributions from our smaller guards as well.

Wiltjer and Pangos could cause some problems for our defensive rebounding. It's tough to commit to the boards on defense when outside shooters, especially a big guy like Wiltjer, extend the defense, drawing rebounders away from the paint. It's why everyone loves a good stretch 4 and a guard who can hit the outside shot when the team also has a strong inside presence.

[Troublemaker]

So, it seems pretty obvious that Duke will try to get the ball out of Pangos' hands when Gonzaga's bringing the ball upcourt after an inbounds. Duke's going to try to accomplish this in one of the two ways we've shown this season:

(1) Zone press. Trap to force Pangos to pass. Then Quinn face-guards him. Or,
(2) Amile double-teams him in the backcourt on the inbounds to force the ball elsewhere. Then Quinn face-guards him.

How well Gonzaga reacts to this is the first key to the game. I suspect Gonzaga is too veteran, too good an offense, and too well-coached to allow these shenanigans to de-rail them. They may even be able to hurt Duke by getting the ball upcourt quickly without Pangos and getting easy layups or threes. If so, Duke will have to back off our pressure completely. And then the game will just settle into a battle between two great offenses punching and counter-punching for 40 minutes in a very entertaining and very heart-stopping regional final. We'd need an appearance of Tyus Stones down the stretch to win.

But... maybe I'm wrong... maybe these shenanigans do affect Gonzaga. Maybe the Zags have trouble getting the ball upcourt and into their offense without Pangos spearheading, and it lowers their efficiency. If so, then Duke will win comfortably and avoid the heartstopper that I'm anticipating for this regional final.

So this will be the first thing I'm watching for today.

[NashvilleDevil]

So, it seems pretty obvious that Duke will try to get the ball out of Pangos' hands when Gonzaga's bringing the ball upcourt after an inbounds. Duke's going to try to accomplish this in one of the two ways we've shown this season:

(1) Zone press. Trap to force Pangos to pass. Then Quinn face-guards him.
(2) Amile double-teams him in the backcourt on the inbounds to force the ball elsewhere. Then Quinn face-guards him.

How well Gonzaga reacts to this is the first key to the game. I suspect Gonzaga is too veteran, too good an offense, and too well-coached to allow these shenanigans to de-rail them. They may even be able to hurt Duke by getting the ball upcourt quickly without Pangos and getting easy layups or threes. If so, Duke will have to back off our pressure completely. And then the game will just settle into two great offenses punching and counter-punching for 40 minutes in a very entertaining and very heart-stopping regional final. We'd need an appearance of Tyus Stones down the stretch to win.

But... maybe I'm wrong... maybe these shenanigans do affect Gonzaga. Maybe the Zags have trouble getting the ball upcourt and into their offense without Pangos spearheading, and it lowers their efficiency. If so, then Duke will win comfortably and avoid the heartstopper that I'm anticipating for this regional final.

They are a veteran team but as some have mentioned Duke is going to be the best team they have faced all year. This is also Mark Few's first time getting this far in the tourney and while he's a really, really good coach how will he react in the biggest game of his coaching career? K has a great record in regional finals and I think Duke wins this one by 10-12 points.

[gumbomoop]

I have been high on the Zags since I first saw them around midseason, and then a few times thereafter. So now I'll hope my praise of their team was misguided.

Here's a question maybe someone can answer, preferably based on seeing them several times (and paying more attention to one detail); or possibly based on the UCLA game Friday. I recall being impressed by Karnowski's passing to Sabonis, twice behind the back. But I can't recall whether Wiltjer was also on the floor when their other two bigs were on the court.

If Duke's playing Justise at the 4 at the same time Gonzaga goes super-big, for, say, a 4-minute stretch, that would make for some high risk-high reward for both teams.

[Bob Green]

Here is a preview article from the Gonzaga Slipperstillfits.com website:

http://www.slipperstillfits.com/2015...-gonzaga-and-a

How does Gonzaga deal with Justise Winslow?

This is the question that kinda freaks me out.

Be sure and read the comments below the article which include the obligatory, "Duke gets all the calls."

[KandG]

Five Thirty Eight's model considers the Zags a "modest underdog", but like everyone else, they're effectively saying the game could swing either way based on the profiles of the teams. I thought this part of their blurb - regarding "high-variance tactics" - was interesting:

"Since the FiveThirtyEight model considers the Bulldogs a modest underdog, it’s worth asking whether they employ enough high-variance tactics to help them “make their own luck” in this matchup — and, unfortunately, Gonzaga doesn’t play a slow pace, nor is it especially reliant on shooting 3-pointers, forcing turnovers or crashing the offensive boards. (Duke also plays a relatively safe style for a favorite, with an above-average pace, good offensive rebounding and no overreliance on long-distance shooting or takeaways.)"


http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/m...-duke-gonzaga/

[DavidBenAkiva]

If we had not allowed Utah 11 offensive rebounds in the first half Friday night, the game would have been over by halftime. Gonzaga has a much bigger front line. I'm hoping for some Amile and MPIII sightings in the first half to keep the Zags off of the boards. If the shooting is as cold as it historically has been in Houston, big factor there. If Justise and Jah are going to be pros, tonight is a good time to show the world that they are. Would be a good time for Tyus and Cook to come up big on offense. Our last 2 games were in the 60s. If Gonzaga likes to push tempo, I would like our chances a lot if the game is in the 80s.

I did a little more digging into the numbers, and it turns out that Gonzaga is a better offensive rebounding team than Utah. They come in at 74th in the country at 32.4%. Utah was 125th at 30.3%. Duke, by the way, is an excellent offensive rebounding team at 20th in the nation at 35.5%. Gonzaga is certainly capable of keeping possessions alive. It is especially impressive when you consider their high field goal percentage (52.4%, tops in the nation).

When they faced Airzona early in the season, they got 13 offensive rebounds. Against UCLA in the Sweet 16, they got 18. In both cases, the team was shooting poorly, close to 40% from the floor. Justise, Jahlil, and the guards are going to have to crash the boards on defense to limit possessions.

[Troublemaker]

Here's a question maybe someone can answer, preferably based on seeing them several times (and paying more attention to one detail); or possibly based on the UCLA game Friday. I recall being impressed by Karnowski's passing to Sabonis, twice behind the back. But I can't recall whether Wiltjer was also on the floor when their other two bigs were on the court.

Based on box score math (big men minutes have to add up to 80), I don't think Wiltjer has played at all at SF in Gonzaga's three tournament games.

[subzero02]

Plumlee and Jefferson will have a significant impact on the game today. We need to keep Sabonis off the glass.

[Troublemaker]

The Zag's experience will help them but they also have the pressure of never finishing the deal and getting to the FF.

My read is that Gonzaga will play loose. The way they celebrated after beating UCLA in the Sweet 16 tells me that was a big deal to them. And rightly so. While it's true that they've never made the Final Four, the players will play this game against Duke with a fallback of "No matter what happens, at least we got Coach Few to his first Elite 8." Also, watching Few's press conference, he basically said that Gonzaga was the Duke of the WCC. Lots of pressure to win every single game, and the opponents are always fired up to play them. It's cliche, but I think they relish the role of the underdog here. Duke's the higher seed so Gonzaga can't bow out to a lower seed like they've done a few times in recent history. Duke's the powerhouse national program expected to win. Gonzaga's going to enjoy the role reversal, and like I said, they already have the Elite 8 under their belt and can claim to be the best Gonzaga team ever since they accomplished more in the regular season than the Monson-led Zags that made the E8.

So, I hope you're right, but I think Gonzaga will play loose. At least at the beginning of the game. If it's a tight game with 5 minutes left, anyone can crack under that game pressure.

[Henderson]

Be sure and read the comments below the article which include the obligatory, "Duke gets all the calls."

You should check out IC on that issue, the Gonzaga matchup, the NCAA tourney, and much more.

Inside Cult is funnier than the funny papers and much more topical. It's my go-to bookmark when I'm enjoying a good cup of coffee in the morning and want to start the day with a laugh. Those people are hilarious, and it's precious because they don't mean to be.

[Troublemaker]

I think Duke wins this one by 10-12 points.

Maybe it's just as simple as this: Duke isn't bothered by size; Duke is bothered by quickness, and Duke is quicker than Gonzaga. I'm hoping you're right, Nashville. Maybe Duke's quickness proves to be the decisive advantage and it leads to an easy win.

[Troublemaker]

The point spread has dropped to 2 from 2.5 despite more Joe Schmoes betting on Duke than on Gonzaga. That's not great, but it's not awful. If the line continues to drop and becomes a pick'em by tip or maybe Gonzaga becomes the favorite, then I'd be worried. That would mean that a lot of smart people are betting large amounts of money on Gonzaga.

[Edouble]

I like Quinn to bounce back from a low scoring effort against Utah and make sure people lose even more money.

This is what Quinn has been working towards all year, since a tearful press conference following last season's first round loss to Mercer.

This is also why Tyus and Jah went through four years of recruitment as a package deal... to win a championship.

This is what Coach K puts all his heart and soul and energy into... into setting up our Blue Devils to hang banners.

I'm sure we will face a tough opponent, but if I were the other team I'd be pissing my pants right now thinking about Winslow, who has been the best player thus far in the tournament.

We are Duke and today we're playing for a championship.

Go Devils!!!!!

[Troublemaker]

I like Quinn to bounce back from a low scoring effort against Utah and make sure people lose even more money.

This is what Quinn has been working towards all year, since a tearful press conference following last season's first round loss to Mercer.

This is also why Tyus and Jah went through four years of recruitment as a package deal... to win a championship.

This is what Coach K puts all his heart and soul and energy into... into setting up our Blue Devils to hang banners.

I'm sure we will face a tough opponent, but if I were the other team I'd be pissing my pants right now thinking about Winslow, who has been the best player thus far in the tournament.

We are Duke and today we're playing for a championship.

Go Devils!!!!!

Nice!!! Let's Go Duke!

Today we get to complete our revenge on KenPom as well. He's been grouping Duke with Utah and Gonzaga for most of the season instead of with UK, Arizona, Wisconsin, and UVA. While KenPom has been scrambling behind the scenes to raise Duke's D-ranking lately, it's too little too late for him as Duke will complete the sweep and send Gonzaga home with a loss, embarrassing Kenpom in the process.

[BobbyFan]

I'm hoping focus isn't an issue for us today, with the possibility of being giddy over facing a relatively lower seed in the FF.

[OldPhiKap]

I'm hoping focus isn't an issue for us today, with the possibility of being giddy over facing a relatively lower seed in the FF.

I'm fairly comfortable in thinking that we are focused on the difficult challenge at hand.