MBB: Duke vs. San Diego St, NCAA R32 (1440 EDT, CBS) Pregame/Ingame thread

[hurleyfor3]

On to the Round of 32. Discuss the matchup with San Diego State here.

[Troublemaker]

​Importing from South Region thread...

Watching the Game.. Who whould you rather play? I think SDSU. MY reason is that I don't think sdsu can keep shooting 3s like this and pointer on St Johns is a scary driver. I think we can guard 3s better than we guard nasty dribble penetration.

Thoughts?

If our opponent is SDSU, I'll be surprised if they don't Hackafor. They play lots of guys, and have some size. As one of the TV panels noted, as Duke goes further, Jahlil's FT-shooting is a major issue. I suppose StJ couldn't afford that approach, lacking size and depth.

I hesitate to take a position under the "be careful what you wish for" line of thinking. That said, in the abstract, I would far prefer to play offensively challenged but defensively strong teams than teams that have offensive skills and also play decent defense. I think our defense is good enough to stop bad offenses but vulnerable to good/decent offenses, and I like our offense against basically any defense.

I agree with gofurman, I think. Their season stats say they can't shoot threes this well. They'll revert to the mean at some point. Ideally they shoot jot of their minds for the rest of thus game and then revert on Sunday. That would be ideal.

[pfrduke]

San Diego State is an excellent defensive team. They're particularly strong on the wing and in the paint, yielding just 41.8% shooting on 2s and the 6th best EFG% defense in the country. They do a pretty good job forcing turnovers, are reasonably good on the glass, but they really just excel at making opponents miss shots.

The offense, though - it's bad. This is probably the single worst shooting team in the tournament. They're 240th from 2, 253rd from 3, and 341st at the line. This is not a team that makes shots. Tonight's scoring performance was the 3rd highest in a regulation game this season.

Duke needs to keep SDSU in a half court offense - if we do, the Aztecs should really struggle to score. On the other side, Okafor will be bigger than anyone SDSU can throw out, but the Aztec front line is stringy, bouncy, and long, and in Skylar Spencer has one of the best shot blockers in the country. Either Quinn or Tyus will be very outsized on the perimeter, which could mean trouble for getting shots off.

This is likely to be a low scoring game, but we've won every low scoring game we've played this year - Duke is undefeated when the opponent is under 70 (22-0, vs. 8-4 when the opponent hits 70) and I think SDSU will have a difficult time getting to 70.

[gumbomoop]

This is a different team, and not at first glance a seriously dangerous group. Granted that anything can happen; including a mediocre 3-point-shooting team shooting 42% tonight v. StJ. More typically, the Aztecs' FT% tonight -- 57% -- was a tad lower than their average of 63%. I don't recommend that we allow them to get 30 FT attempts, though of course StJ was fouling toward end.

Different especially in that they play a bunch of rangy forwards, and they don't really have a point guard. Probably Spencer (listed 6'10", 235) and Chol (6'9", 225) will take turns guarding Jahlil, but we have to expect double teams, especially if they think they can recover quickly and threaten our perimeter shooters with their forwards' length. If Spencer and Chol don't use up 9 of their 10 fouls on Jahlil, I'll be surprised. Coach Fisher is going to want to make Jahlil pass out of the double-team, and when not that, foul him and make him earn his 12 points on 3 buckets and 6 of 14 FTs.

But for the modified Hackafor to succeed, Marshall and Amile have to be pretty much non-factors, for when they're in, Spencer and Chol can't waste fouls on them; maybe the rangy forwards can cope with rangy Amile, but they aren't strong enough to keep Marshall off the boards if he's smart and active. Justise and Amile have to be effective cutters at least a couple of times, receiving passes from Jahlil for layups, and-ones.

As to the Aztecs' O v. Duke's D, their rangy guys might back our smaller guards into the lane, or post up, but they don't have combo of handle and quickness to whip past Quinn and Tyus. I'd expect, or at least hope, that K surprises them with several different D-schemes. [Other posters emphasized value of surprise in "Bad D pressure" thread.]. With no clear point guard, and without multiple players with good handle, I don't see them easily coping with multiple D-schemes. I'd expect some press; maybe they'd cope too easily with that by throwing over it, not sure. I'm still plumping for the occasional surprise 3-2 with Amile up top.

Clearly Duke wants the game to be in the 80s, SDSU much prefers 50s.

I encourage poster BigZ, who posted in South Region thread, to correct any wrongheaded analysis here.

[-bdbd]

Was watching Shane Battier and some other ESPN talking heads late tonight. The consensus was that SDSU, while solid defensively, is just too offensively challenged to keep scoring with Duke. They also seemed to think that Duke's offense is good enough to cope with an excellent SDSU D. The lack of a penetrating PG-type is very encouraging for us.

Am a little surmising that there hasn't been more chatter about the rematch of K and Coach Fisher. Been a long way from their Duke-Michigan match-ups of the early-90's...

[cato]

Where is the respect reserved for the play-in teams? Duke has not played a team like SDSU. Virginia has a great defense, but is a conference foe. Let's not assume the offense will be clicking.

Sure, the Aztecs don't score a lot, but if they can keep it close, anything can happen down the stetch.

[TNDukeFan]

March Madness Live website has the game on CBS.

[dukelifer]

Was watching Shane Battier and some other ESPN talking heads late tonight. The consensus was that SDSU, while solid defensively, is just too offensively challenged to keep scoring with Duke. They also seemed to think that Duke's offense is good enough to cope with an excellent SDSU D. The lack of a penetrating PG-type is very encouraging for us.

Am a little surmising that there hasn't been more chatter about the rematch of K and Coach Fisher. Been a long way from their Duke-Michigan match-ups of the early-90's...

This is a dangerous team for sure and is capable of having a great night. Duke needs to play very hard and will need to get easy baskets for separation. Winslow could be key.

[NashvilleDevil]

I understand the concern playing San Diego St but who have they played? They beat Utah early in the season and had close losses to Arizona and Cincinnati. I am glad the game is Sunday so the hand wringing about the next greatest team after Robert Morris doesn't have time to reach 8 pages.

[slower]

I understand the concern playing San Diego St but who have they played? They beat Utah early in the season

Did you just answer your own question? On any given day, anybody can beat anybody.

[NYBri]

I understand the concern playing San Diego St but who have they played? They beat Utah early in the season and had close losses to Arizona and Cincinnati. I am glad the game is Sunday so the hand wringing about the next greatest team after Robert Morris doesn't have time to reach 8 pages.

But, but, but we are doomed, I tell ya, DOOMED!

[sagegrouse]

March Madness Live website has the game on CBS.

The announcers are the CBS Final Four team -- Jim Nantz, Grant and Bill Raftery -- doesn't sound like a tru-TV airing.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

If their shooting is that poor, I suspect we may see a lot of zone D. Force them to shoot instead of muscling us on the perimeter and into the lane. Would be fun to see 3-2 zone with the twin towers guarding the lane and grabbing rebounds.

[sagegrouse]

Like K against John Chaney's defensive-oriented teams: Up the tempo and try to get to 80 -- no way Temple then would score that many, or San Diego State tomorrow.

[Troublemaker]

Like K against John Chaney's defensive-oriented teams: Up the tempo and try to get to 80 -- no way Temple then would score that many, or San Diego State tomorrow.

SJU did have some success in transition against SDSU, and I hope Duke can duplicate.

Defensively, I think the Clemson gameplan might work. 2-2-1 press and then sink back into a 2-3 zone. Rebound, and run hard off misses.

Whereas I thought the key stat against RMU was Duke turnovers (RMU would've needed to force much more than the 11 TOs they got from Duke to win), I think the key stat against SDSU is Duke's defensive rebounding percentage. SDSU probably needs to pound Duke on the boards in order to win. They are capable of this -- 33rd-best offensive rebounding team in the country -- so we need to put bodies on bodies, whether in man or zone.

Kenpom projects a 66-60 Duke win, and he gives SDSU a 27% chance of pulling off the upset. They deserve our respect. Seems like we could be headed towards a physical, grind-it-out game where players will have to make big shots and grab big rebounds down the stretch to secure the win.

[CDu]

I understand the concern playing San Diego St but who have they played? They beat Utah early in the season and had close losses to Arizona and Cincinnati. I am glad the game is Sunday so the hand wringing about the next greatest team after Robert Morris doesn't have time to reach 8 pages.

You do realize that over half of those 8 pages were comments by folks discussing how much to win by right (apologies to all for contributing to that count)? There was some hand-wringing, but not that much.

[Atlanta Duke]

The announcers are the CBS Final Four team -- Jim Nantz, Grant and Bill Raftery -- doesn't sound like a tru-TV airing.

Tru that - CBS at 2:40 pm after UVA - Sparty at 12:10 pm tomorrow

[Troublemaker]

3-Part Test on Whether An Opponent Can Be Zoned

1) Can they shoot?

NO. For the season, SDSU shoots 32.4% from three. They also shoot 62.7% from the free throw line.

2) Can they pass?

NO. Their assist % ranks 295th in the country. Their turnover % ranks 140th in the country. I don't think SDSU will be able to move the ball crisply from side to side and in and out of Duke's 2-3 zone without turning the ball over a good amount, as average as Duke's zone is.

3) Can they offensive rebound?

YES. As mentioned upthread, they are 33rd in the country in offensive-rebounding.

Overall Verdict: SDSU can be zoned effectively. Just need to concentrate on rebounding out of the zone (guards will need to help) and then running once the board is grabbed.

[davekay1971]

From what little I've seen of SDSU, Troublemaker's defensive scheme seems like a nice plan. We're athletic enough to make the extended pressure defense useful in forcing some turnovers for easy buckets, and to chew up some of the shot clock on SDSU's possessions, falling back to the zone in half-court to force them to make shots and limit their open looks. On the other end, if we can establish Jah early, that should open up our perimeter shooters. I think Kenpom's prediction sounds about right - would love to see Duke have a comfortable double-digit win, but a relatively low scoring slug fest and 5-10 point win seems likely.

Of course, this is the championship game in our 4-team weekend tournament, so any win will do, and gets us to the next 4 team tournament.

[NashvilleDevil]

I went back and looked at Duke's losses in the Round of 32 since the expansion to 64 teams. Under K it happened in 85, 93, 97, and 08. Three of those losses were to schools from the Big East and the other was in the Pac-10. Duke was a 2 or 3 seed each time. I guess what I'm saying is Duke has not lost as a 1 seed in this round under K and they are not playing a school from a power conference. Take this however you want. I think the -7.5 point line this game opened at is ridiculously low and Duke plays one of their best games of the year tomorrow.