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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    West Palm Beach, FL

    MBB: Duke vs. Florida State (Feb 9, 7 pm ET, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

    There's a game tonight! Lets get to discussing it.

    My thoughts:

    Can Duke keep up the momentum from the beat down we put on the IRISH?

    How will Jah handle all the size that Florida State can throw at him?

    Will we see the intense Man to Man we saw Saturday or will Coach K go back to mixing it up with Zone?

    Can Justice Winslow continue to put pressure on the D with drives, or will he go back to settling for Jump Shots? (This is key for us down the stretch)

    Will we keep improving in the second half of the ACC schedule and sling shot our way into March as a top seed, hopefully a #1 seed? (not about this game in general but something I will be looking at in each game)

    Can we keep improving on our Free Throw stats? (I am betting on a lot of free throws for our big guys this game, FSU has a lot of fouls to give)


    Enjoy the game, and LETS GO DUKE!!!!

  2. #2
    ESPN guys, not CBS.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC

    Twin Towers?

    After reading the write up on FSU's front line/centers, I wondered if we'll see much of Jahlil and MPIII together? I could see both pros and cons as to why not or why to use that lineup. 1) Jahlil will probably need more rest against that huge group, and MPIII is Duke's only other true center, so he may just come in to give Jahlil rest. 2) If both Jahlil and Marshall stay out of foul trouble, we could very well see that lineup in the 2nd half. If we do, it will probably be in a zone defense. My big fear in this game that we will be out rebounded with our smaller lineup(Jah, Winslow and 3 guards). I hope the guys fear FSU as much as I do and come ready to play. GoDuke!

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    After reading the write up on FSU's front line/centers, I wondered if we'll see much of Jahlil and MPIII together?
    As an avowed fan of Twin Towers, I'm going to guess that we won't see Twin Towers much at all. Nor should we. My new love right now is just getting Justise and Matt, our two best defenders, to share the court as much as possible, and the best way to do that is probably the smallball lineup with Justise at the 4 and Matt at the 3.

    FSU may have size, but I doubt they're talented enough to win the tradeoff. Justise will hurt FSU on offense being guarded by a big guy more than the FSU big man can hurt Justise on postups and rebounding going the other way.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    West Palm Beach, FL
    Quote Originally Posted by porkpa View Post
    ESPN guys, not CBS.
    Yep messed up my copy and paste skills, Mods can you edit my horrible mistake, and ban me for a 3 months after the season is over as punishment?

    GAME IS ON ESPN

  6. #6
    I always have a illogical fear of the game against FSU. I always have the idea that playing down in Tallahassee is dangerous, and that Duke always seems to struggle against FSU. I decided that this must be a fallacy based on recency bias...or perhaps because of particularly bad memories of Sheldon and JJ struggling @ FSU in the past.

    So - I decided to go back and look at our record against FSU for the last 14 seasons (or however many ESPN has available) and reassure myself that Duke dominates @ Tallahassee, and that there was no truth to my faulty memory.

    Unfortunately...I didn't discover domination; winning, yes, but not domination. Overall, since the 2001/2002 season, Duke is 6 - 4 against FSU on the road. Five of those games were decided by 5 points or less. In the more friendly confines of Cameron, the record is a lot better: 7 - 2, with four of those games decided by 3 points or less (one win in OT). On a neutral court, Duke is 0 - 1 against FSU...3 point margin.

    So - overall, Duke is 13 and 7, with 10 of those games being decided by 5 points or less. Six of the games being one possession games! And at least one game decided by a controversial technical.

    I haven't compared this record to Duke's record against other ACC schools, but outside of MD and UNC, I can't think of another team that has played Duke as consistently as FSU...and even in "down" years for FSU, they seem to get things together when they play Duke.

    This year, their ugliest losses are to Providence and Nebraska, and neither of those were blowouts.

    Hopefully, by this time tomorrow, there will be a long thread of posts regaling us with FSU's new ugliest loss...but based on past history (which, as I'm sure Kedsy or any logical person around here can remind me is essentially superstition since the teams dramatically change so much from year to year), this is always a game that worries me.

  7. #7
    It is a bit like some NCAA tournament games, in that there is a two day turnaround after a very emotional win. With the added factor of a fairly long trip. So it is a great test of focus and consistency. Hopefully the defensive momentum especially will carry over. As Winslow said, a standard has now been set, and it is up to them to uphold that standard. There is a new reference point as to what is possible on defense to draw upon every game from now on...

  8. #8

    Very nervous now

    I need to finish my work in time and go home early.

    Noles are not an easy one with their strong D. Hope our guys stay hungry.

    Go Duke!

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    FSU would have been a lot scarier in November, but their leading scorer Aaron Thomas was dismissed after being ruled ineligible.

    Freshman (kind of... he was ineligible last season) Xavier Rathan-Mayes (fun fact: he was Andrew Wiggins' old teammate and was almost able to talk Wiggins into going to FSU) is picking up some of that slack. He dropped 35 on UNC and 21 on Wake, but since that game hasn't shot all that well (combined 10-28 the last 3 games). He's probably the biggest concern, but if Duke has figured out how to play defense against guards like Jerian Grant, they can certainly handle Mayes.

    Montay Brandon and Devon Bookert are the other scoring threats. Brandon doesn't shoot very well from 3, but is more of a slasher. Bookert is the 3 point guy (41% this season).

    The front line of FSU is a bunch of 7 footers. None of them are as good as Jahlil Okafor. None of them are even as good as Marshall Plumlee, honestly. They generally combine to play 30-40 minutes, as either conditioning, foul trouble or their overall limitations keeps them off the floor for extended periods.

    I'm sure this will be another dogfight, as FSU always is, and we'll all wonder in the game thread why Duke didn't put them away, but it's the ACC people. These things happen.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    FSU is an odd opponent. They have some pretty good players in Rathan-Mayes and Brandon, both of whom are excellent at attacking the basket but are not great shooters.

    And they have 3 really big centers (all 7'0" or taller) that they rotate interchangeably. However, they don't actually play any of those two guys together very often (and with good reason; two of the three are pretty awful). Turpin is the most talented of the 3, but they play Bojanovski (the best shotblocker and rebounder) a bit more. Ojo is a behemoth, but he's got less skill than Joel James.

    At the PF, they will play Cofer and Smith. Those two are both 6'8-6'9" athletes. Smith fancies himself a 3pt shooter, but he is not (14.3%). Neither is overwhelmingly good.

    At SF, they play Brandon as much as they possibly can (34 mpg). Brandon is, in some ways, a lot like Marcus Georges-Hunt, only taller. He likes to attack the rim, rebounds well, and is a terrific athlete. Not the best ballhandler in the world, and not a great 3pt shooter. But he is a tough player in transition and very capable of having a big night. The other minutes will be filled by Berwick.

    At guard, it is predominantly Bookert/Rathan-Mayes/Berwick. Rathan-Mayes is the playmaker of the group. He is a little reminiscent of Elliot Williams. A really good athlete who can score or distribute, but isn't a great outside shooter. Bookert is a fantastic outside shooter, but less gifted off the dribble and not much of a playmaker. Berwick is sort of non-descript to me, as he plays just 10 mpg.

    FSU will try to play physically, will crowd the lane defensively, and will try to play to their strength/athleticism. They are, as is usually the case with Leonard Hamilton's teams, extremely strong and athletic. They are, as is usually the case with Leonard Hamilton's teams, not very good offensively. However, unlike typical Hamilton teams, they are not very good defensively this year.

    I'd expect to see little change to our approach in this one. We'll still rely heavily on Winslow and Matt Jones at SF/PF, and Allen and Plumlee will play sparingly as needed (unless it is a blowout). We'll throw some zone at them if needed (and it should work well against them). And we'll try to get Okafor involved early against FSU's big but not very good centers.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I'd expect to see little change to our approach in this one. We'll still rely heavily on Winslow and Matt Jones at SF/PF, and Allen and Plumlee will play sparingly as needed (unless it is a blowout). We'll throw some zone at them if needed (and it should work well against them). And we'll try to get Okafor involved early against FSU's big but not very good centers.
    I agree with most of what you said, but I would expect to see Plumlee play a little more this game to spell Okafor. Since FSU can continually rotate in centers (and possibly employ a "hack-an-Okafor" strategy) I would expect Okafor to need a little more rest than normal - not that he won't outplay those that are in against him, but it will require more consistent effort for him on both offense and defense. I would be surprised if FSU isn't excessively physical with Okafor. I just hope that the refs recognize all of the pushing and shoving that is bound to happen in the paint.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    As an avowed fan of Twin Towers, I'm going to guess that we won't see Twin Towers much at all. Nor should we. My new love right now is just getting Justise and Matt, our two best defenders, to share the court as much as possible, and the best way to do that is probably the smallball lineup with Justise at the 4 and Matt at the 3.

    FSU may have size, but I doubt they're talented enough to win the tradeoff. Justise will hurt FSU on offense being guarded by a big guy more than the FSU big man can hurt Justise on postups and rebounding going the other way.
    K has been really good at matching up the strategy to the team this year, exploiting weaknesses. When we played Louisville, we went zone to counteract their strength around the rim (and also our man-to-man D sucked). When we were playing St. Johns, the Twin Towers approach really mucked up their dribble penetration. The 2-3 and 3-2 zone against Virginia made the team speed up their plays and caused a lot of problems late in the game by disrupting their entry passes. It's all been about exploiting weaknesses.

    When it comes to FSU, going big is a strength-on-strength approach. As stated above, I expect to see a lot of Jah+4 lineups with Winslow and Matt Jones on the court. Good luck to FSU trying to matchup with two point guards and Winslow's ability in transition on the floor. It's not hard to imagine that Okafor will be better at running the court than their 4 7-footers, either.

    Then again, we might see some zone to mix things up. That will force FSU into a perimeter shooting team, which is not their strength. That didn't work out too well against an even worse shooting team in Georgia Tech. However, I have a feeling that had more to do with Duke's intensity and focus than anything else.

  13. #13
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by peterjswift View Post
    I agree with most of what you said, but I would expect to see Plumlee play a little more this game to spell Okafor. Since FSU can continually rotate in centers (and possibly employ a "hack-an-Okafor" strategy) I would expect Okafor to need a little more rest than normal - not that he won't outplay those that are in against him, but it will require more consistent effort for him on both offense and defense. I would be surprised if FSU isn't excessively physical with Okafor. I just hope that the refs recognize all of the pushing and shoving that is bound to happen in the paint.
    I really don't think we'll need to see more of Plumlee than usual. For one thing, FSU's bigs aren't really big and physical except for Ojo (and he plays less than 10 mpg). Bojanovski is really skinny, and Turpin isn't much bigger. For another, none of those guys will require much work from Okafor defensively. Turpin is the most capable guy, but he's definitely not a guy they run the offense through, nor is he a big offensive rebound guy.

    Basically, they are probably less equipped to play a physical game with Okafor than Notre Dame was. Auguste is stronger than either Turpin or Bojanovski (and those guys play ~30 mpg), and Colson is no slouch in the physicality department either. Only Ojo is really suited to get physical with Okafor. The other two are more or less flies on the back of an elephant (just really tall flies).

    I am quite sure that FSU will try to be excessively physical with Okafor, but (like with other teams that have tried it) I don't expect it to be successful.

  14. #14
    As a FSU PhD student, I'll be one of the 30 people in the crowd tonight. Looking forward to watching your team in person. FSU always plays Duke tough but I just don't see them puling off the upset tonight. The team just lacks the fundamentals needed to beat a team like Duke. I expect a close first half and Duke to assert itself in the second half and win by 10-12 points.

  15. #15
    I get nervous playing FSU because of thuggery. I hope first of all we win of course, and second that none of our players are injured. Having lived in Florida for 15 years I've seen FSU play a number of games where they just scared the heck out of me with seriously dangerous fouls. I went on to live in DC and now Texas (fairly scary places for different reasons) and FSU still worries me. Obviously I don't know a fraction of the strategy, stats, and details that most of you do, so I base my thoughts on women's intuition and hope is is as wrong about tonight as it has been during the selection of certain male companions during my lost and wild youth.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by peterjswift View Post
    I haven't compared this record to Duke's record against other ACC schools, but outside of MD and UNC, I can't think of another team that has played Duke as consistently as FSU...and even in "down" years for FSU, they seem to get things together when they play Duke.
    DUKE ROAD RECORD AGAINST ACC TEAMS, 2001 to 2015 (so far)
    --------------------------------------------------------------
    Code:
    Team		W	L	win %	win by 10 or fewer
    Pitt		1	0	1.000	0
    L'ville		1	0	1.000	0
    BC		6	1	0.857	4
    Ga Tech		9	2	0.818	4
    Clemson		8	2	0.800	4
    Va Tech		6	2	0.750	2
    Miami		5	2	0.714	3
    FSU		6	4	0.600	3
    Virginia	5	4	0.556	0
    NC State	6	5	0.545	3
    UNC		8	6	0.571	4
    Maryland	7	6	0.538	4
    Wake		7	6	0.538	4
    Syracuse	0	1	0.000	0
    N Dame		0	2	0.000	0
    As you can see, when it comes to road games, Florida State is exactly in the middle when it comes to playing Duke tough on the road. We can fear them, but we probably shouldn't fear them any more than your typical ACC team on the road.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    West Palm Beach, FL
    Quote Originally Posted by jhmoss1812 View Post
    As a FSU PhD student, I'll be one of the 30 people in the crowd tonight. Looking forward to watching your team in person. FSU always plays Duke tough but I just don't see them puling off the upset tonight. The team just lacks the fundamentals needed to beat a team like Duke. I expect a close first half and Duke to assert itself in the second half and win by 10-12 points.
    Its Duke remember, even if the typical crowd is 30 people tonight it will be to capacity. Its the FSU student sections super bowl and chance to get on TV, can't miss that.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
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    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I am quite sure that FSU will try to be excessively physical with Okafor, but (like with other teams that have tried it) I don't expect it to be successful.
    While you will most certainly be correct, FSU's depth at the 5 makes the "Hack-a-For" a very appealing strategy for FSU. With Okafor hitting a poor 57% from the line (although a more impressive 64% in conference play) and 15 fouls for FSU to give, I suspect Okafor will be shooting more fouls during this game than any ACC match up.

    Shoot well from the strip, Okafor, cus you ain't getting any easy buckets against the Trees of FSU.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  19. #19
    I hope Justise's ankle is OK. Has anyone heard anything about it?

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
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    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I hope Justise's ankle is OK. Has anyone heard anything about it?
    Are you referring to when he landed on the ND player's foot? Or is this a separate event?

    Haven't heard anything about the ankle, which I always deem as good news.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

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