2016 Presidential Race

[OldPhiKap]

It would violate the will of the people. If Trump has 45% of the delegates and Cruz has 35% of the delegates in OPK's supposition, a very reasonable one, who provided Trump and Cruz with those delegates? The people. Ordinary voters. They would have soundly rejected the establishment candidates. In this thread, you've detailed in several posts how Trump and Cruz delegates can become establishment delegates on Round 2 of voting; for example, the South Carolina example you gave about Trump's delegates there. If Kasich or Rubio or Romney or Ryan emerge as the nominee, a majority of GOP voters have a right to feel disenfranchised, imo.

I still don't agree that the will of the majority is being thwarted. Perhaps the difficulty comes from using the term "non-establishment candidate" as if it represents some commonality of interest. If there were candidates A, B and C, each with 1/3, I don't think it would be appropriate to refer to it as violating the will of the majority if they finally settled on C, even though 2/3 of the support was initially for A or B. If A and B did represent some commonality of interest, even a "not-C" interest, there will be no thwarting of their desire to nominate a not-C candidate.

Troublemaker, as he often does, stated my position better than I have.

I see there being a basic schism in the GOP between the establishment, and those who are frustrated/angry/bored/whatever with the establishment. This has been building for years. Trump's big selling point is that he is not a politician who is bought and sold (implying and sometimes expressly stating that the leadership of both parties are just puppets). Cruz's whole reason d'etre (as they say in Canada) is to flip the bird to the GOP establishment. EVERY GOP state exit polling I have seen so far shows that more than 50% of the voters feel that the GOP has either "betrayed" them or "abandoned" them. That is stunning.

So, if through some back-room dealing, an establishment candidate gets the nomination despite having the third or fourth highest vote count (or someone like Romney or Ryan, who bypassed the whole thing), I think a majority of the GOP voters will feel that their voices have effectively been bypassed. And they would be right IMO.

I guess my operating assumption behind my posts is this: I believe that most folks vote for either Trump or Cruz because they reject the candidates the GOP "establishment" has put forward recently (Romney, McCain, and now Rubio/Kasich) and reject the argument that the GOP needs to put forward a moderate candidate to try to win the general election. If you disagree with that premise (and no hard feelings if you do), then you likely disagree with my resultant conclusion. But that's what I am trying to convey.

[Jeffrey]

Candidates with a plurality of votes early in the convention who did not go on to win the nomination:

• William Seward (1860, 41.5 percent of the vote)
• James G. Blaine (1876, 45.9 percent)
• Ulysses S. Grant (1880, 41.3 percent)
• John Sherman (1888, 33.9 percent)
• Leonard Wood (1920, 45.5 percent)
• Frank Lowden (1920, 41.5 percent)
• Tom Dewey (1940, 36.1 percent)

It might not be coincidence all were more than 75 years ago.

[budwom]

I took a stab at the math, using the delegate counts at RCP (pledged delegates only):

Total to date:

HRC has won 748 of the total 4051 pledged delegates.
BS has won 547 of the total 4051 pledged delegates.

2761 remain.

To win a majority of pledged delegates, Bernie must win 1,484 of the remaining 2,761. That would be 53.7% of all remaining pledged delegates. To date, he has won 42.0%.

That would be quite a shift.

Yes, quite a shift, but remember, Clinton racked up wide margins in southern states where Bernie got practically no support. (So I think the 42% he's won thus far
underestimates his future support). Tonight will clarify much.

[CDu]

Yes, quite a shift, but remember, Clinton racked up wide margins in southern states where Bernie got practically no support. (So I think the 42% he's won thus far
underestimates his future support). Tonight will clarify much.

I think it will almost certainly be close in the Midwest. But based on demographics, it is still a substantial uphill battle for Sanders.

[cato]

Yes, quite a shift, but remember, Clinton racked up wide margins in southern states where Bernie got practically no support. (So I think the 42% he's won thus far
underestimates his future support). Tonight will clarify much.

And Clinton won't rack up large margins in any states outside of the Southeast? Instead, Bernie will beat her by over 7% points in all remaining states, including those voting today, and places like NM, Arizona, California and New York?

I'm not saying it's impossible, but I have not seen anyone chart out an actual path to securing a majority of pledged delegates. It strikes me as a bit of magical thinking, but perhaps someone can show the delegate math that supports the path.

[Tom B.]

So I think the 42% he's won thus far underestimates his future support.

Actually, it's pretty much in line with the national polls, which have shown Sanders hovering around 40% for a while now. There have been a few outliers going both ways here and there, but they generally seem to cancel each other out.

HuffPo's compilation of national polls puts Hillary at 52.6% and Bernie at 40.4%.

TPM puts Hillary at 51.0% and Bernie at 40.6%.

Realclearpolitics.com puts Hillary at 51.0% and Bernie at 39.6%.

[CDu]

Early signs look good for Clinton. She is on her way to a big win in Florida, and the (very) early returns in NC and Ohio are favorable for her.

[OldPhiKap]

Rubio just suspended.

[CDu]

Rubio just suspended.

No surprise there. He got housed in his home state. It will be interesting to see what this does moving forward. Will his followers go to Kasich? Will they go to Cruz or Trump? Or will it split somewhat evenly, which would in effect be a win for Trump?

[CDu]

AP is calling Ohio for Clinton. Looking like a bad night for Bernie.

[CDu]

Early double-digit leads in Illinois and Missouri for Clinton. This may be the death knell for Bernie's campaign.

On the GOP side, Rubio was finished off, but Kasich got Ohio and Cruz is putting up a good fight in Mo and NC. By the way, how much must Cruz hate Rubio right now? If Rubio had dropped out teo weeks ago, tonight might have been the night Cruz overtook Trump in delegate count. Instead, he faces a big uphill battle to catch Trump.

On the other hand, some have speculated that Trump's loss in Ohio may effectively prevent him from reaching the delegate threshold for the nomination. So maybe it isn't as big a deal that Rubio stuck around.

[fuse]

Wish I had something constructive to add.

This country is going to hell in a handbasket based on an atrocious lack of reasonable choice for the future.

Probably should have just posted one word:

Ugh!

[CameronBornAndBred]

On the other hand, some have speculated that Trump's loss in Ohio may effectively prevent him from reaching the delegate threshold for the nomination. So maybe it isn't as big a deal that Rubio stuck around.

Credit Kasich for a solid win; Rubio's 3+% wouldn't have affected his victory over Trump.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Credit Kasich for a solid win; Rubio's 3+% wouldn't have affected his victory over Trump.

Oops..totally forgot about Rubio encouraging his supporters to vote for Kasich, so CDu has a good point.

[JasonEvans]

I know the delegate math probably made Hillary the presumptive nominee before tonight, but if there was any tiny doubt it is now gone. She has 3 large wins and is leading in the other 2 states. 5-for-5 is a real possibility and her delegate lead is going to be above 300 after tonight (to say nothing of the hundreds of SuperDelegates on her side). With Carlos Boozer's permission, allow me to speak the two words...

IT'S OVER!

As for the GOP, Kasich's win may be good for Trump in the long run. I know he needs those delegates, but I really think a 1-on-1 race with Cruz or Kasich is bad for him. This keeps 3 guys in the race which could allow Trump to keep on winning with about 40% of the vote. I really think that in a 1-on-1, he has trouble getting to 50% and he starts losing states, many of them winner-take-all.

Plus, it is still possible that Trump wins 4 out of 5 tonight and that the delegate math gets just a little bit closer to 50% for him (he came into tonight at 44%). Need another hour or so to see how NC, Ill, and MO turn out.

-Jason "sorta incredible that Kasich has survived this long and is still surviving even longer. He hasn't been nearly as good as Rubio nationally but he's still here and Rubio isn't" Evans

[CDu]

I know the delegate math probably made Hillary the presumptive nominee before tonight, but if there was any tiny doubt it is now gone. She has 3 large wins and is leading in the other 2 states. 5-for-5 is a real possibility and her delegate lead is going to be above 300 after tonight (to say nothing of the hundreds of SuperDelegates on her side). With Carlos Boozer's permission, allow me to speak the two words...

IT'S OVER!

As for the GOP, Kasich's win may be good for Trump in the long run. I know he needs those delegates, but I really think a 1-on-1 race with Cruz or Kasich is bad for him. This keeps 3 guys in the race which could allow Trump to keep on winning with about 40% of the vote. I really think that in a 1-on-1, he has trouble getting to 50% and he starts losing states, many of them winner-take-all.

Plus, it is still possible that Trump wins 4 out of 5 tonight and that the delegate math gets just a little bit closer to 50% for him (he came into tonight at 44%). Need another hour or so to see how NC, Ill, and MO turn out.

-Jason "sorta incredible that Kasich has survived this long and is still surviving even longer. He hasn't been nearly as good as Rubio nationally but he's still here and Rubio isn't" Evans

It is looking like at least four of five for Clinton, but Missouri is now really close. Still, it really doesn't matter. The monster win in Ohio along with Florida and NC more or less seal it.

On the GOP side, the problem for Trump is that he really needed those Ohio delegates to reach the 50% threshold. While it is also true that a head-to-head with Cruz might be bad for him in many states, it is also true that he is still wellbelow the threshold and running out of states. And Kasich winning Ohio provides (in yheory) a viable candidate in the Mid-Atlantic, where Cruz was likely to struggle.

[Mike Corey]

-Jason "sorta incredible that Kasich has survived this long and is still surviving even longer. He hasn't been nearly as good as Rubio nationally but he's still here and Rubio isn't" Evans

He's survived solely on the promise of winning Ohio.

Time for Cruz to leave the stage and let Kasich take down Trump. It won't happen, but it's what should happen for the GOP to have a maximum shot at the White House from 2016-2020.

[JasonEvans]

Time for Cruz to leave the stage and let Kasich take down Trump. It won't happen, but it's what should happen for the GOP to have a maximum shot at the White House from 2016-2020.

Huh? Cruz has won waaaay more states and more delegates than Kasich. Even with Kasich taking Ohio tonight, I think Cruz will have more votes than him on this night alone. I don't even begin to see why Cruz would drop out after tonight. No logic at all in that.

-Jason "at a certain point, the more states Trump wins and the more regions of the country he wins in, it starts to look kinda crazy to deny him the nomination, doesn't it?" Evans

[OldPhiKap]

Huh? Cruz has won waaaay more states and more delegates than Kasich. Even with Kasich taking Ohio tonight, I think Cruz will have more votes than him on this night alone. I don't even begin to see why Cruz would drop out after tonight. No logic at all in that.

-Jason "at a certain point, the more states Trump wins and the more regions of the country he wins in, it starts to look kinda crazy to deny him the nomination, doesn't it?" Evans

I think we are all about to learn a lot about rules fights and delegate credential fights. It's fixing to get Midieval.

[Mike Corey]

Huh? Cruz has won waaaay more states and more delegates than Kasich. Even with Kasich taking Ohio tonight, I think Cruz will have more votes than him on this night alone. I don't even begin to see why Cruz would drop out after tonight. No logic at all in that.

-Jason "at a certain point, the more states Trump wins and the more regions of the country he wins in, it starts to look kinda crazy to deny him the nomination, doesn't it?" Evans

As I said, this won't happen, and obviously so, because Cruz has (many) more delegates.

The state of things in the primary aside, what I'm saying is straightforward: Kasich is the best candidate of the three remaining to defeat Secretary Clinton in the general. Cruz should get out of the way so as to allow Kasich to defeat Trump, and take on Secretary Clinton.

As I said, this won't happen given Cruz's positioning, but Kasich would make for the best general nominee in the race against Clinton.