Originally Posted by
Mal
1. I can't believe I'm posting on this thread this early. I hate myself for doing so.
2. It's interesting to me that the moment he started actually talking about running himself, Jeb's favorability numbers decreased. This could be for a number of possible reasons, I suppose: the mainstream media/establishment underestimated how much people still don't like W (despite Jason's post immediately upthread - I guarantee you if people actually start talking about 2000-2008 again those numbers will start falling again, and Jeb will be tested throughout the campaign by having to walk the razor between showing family loyalty and not actually championing his brother); they underestimated people's memories of Jeb when he was in the national spotlight/the Terri Schiavo incident, etc.; natural decrease in excitement as soon as the potentiality becomes reality; etc.
3. I still think it's Jeb's nomination to lose, however. I could see this campaign season looking a lot like '12 for Republicans, mostly because the interparty dynamics haven't changed despite the midterm success. There's still a lot of insurgency within the party, and a reluctance to support the establishment guy, so there will be a dozen Tea Party favorites who pop up and have a moment before the money overwhelms them, or the sun shining on their extremeness sinks them. And despite that insurgency, there's still the traditional Republican dynamic of you don't get a Presidential nom unless you're seen as next in line for awhile, so you don't come out of nowhere like Obama.
4. I like Mike Corey's Kasich call, but I think he's more likely the Huntsman of this cycle. His (reluctant, of questionable sincerity) coming around on Medicare expansion/acceptance of the reality of the PPACA world is tantamount to treason for Movement conservatives and Tea Partiers. He doesn't stand a chance in the southern primaries because he's not extreme enough (although he's been in plenty of positions that hurt him with moderates/rile up progressives in a general election), and he doesn't have the monetary support or infrastructure that will be behind Bush or even Christie. He needs to start showing up in Iowa and New Hampshire pronto if he wants to win there and get the early momentum he would need. FWIW, if he were to win the nom, he'd need to flip more than just Ohio and Pennsylvania. He'd need Florida, too, or some combo of less likelies like VA/WI/IA or something. I think his balanced budget amendment concept could play well in Republican primaries, but would leave him wide open to destruction in a general.
5. There is no current path to 270 for any of Paul, Huckabee, Carson, Perry and I'm sure I'm missing some names. Never gonna happen; they're way too extreme to flip the list of necessary purple states North of the Mason-Dixon. Christie and Rubio have a roadmap, but not the personalities. I think they go nowhere. Christie's going to eat the Ft. Lee traffic jams forever, and the South will despise him. Rubio's lacking the chops and has made too many mistakes in his short time in the spotlight (and I don't mean the way he guzzles water).
6. Walker would be interesting. He has a number of things going for him, like Koch money and the perception that he can be the guy that bridges the gap between Tea Party and respectability. But he also has a number of things that might hurt him. In a general election his extreme anti-union positions (which, recall, almost got him recalled in Wisconsin) and his open embrace of very conservative policies would likely get Democratic voters out in places like Ohio. I personally think he still lacks the charisma necessary for running a campaign outside the cocoon of Wisconsin, where he won his recall vote in large part because people thought the idea of a recall vote was just impolite and too nasty. He tends to step on his tongue anytime he's actually pressed on anything beyond talking points. That's not to say, however, that an incredibly well-funded campaign couldn't push him through while he adds nothing more than platitudes and somehow manages to not make a fool of himself in debates, of course. I don't know if that's a winning combo for taking the White House back so much as retaining it, however, especially when the overall landscape is likely to be fairly sunny. He could be Michael Dukakis in that respect.
6. I'm exceptionally bored by the Democratic side, because it's such a fait accompli, and because the heir apparent has been so uncharismatic in the past. I don't expect more this time, although whether Clinton cruises in the general might come down to whether she can actually get people to rally behind her as a personality in a way she's never managed to do before. I think O'Malley runs to burnish his reputation, build himself up for Senate or 2024, or for a VP slot, and because he's drafted by a Democratic establishment that needs someone to play the part of friendly opposition and put Clinton through her paces rather than run unopposed. Webb runs because he actually thinks he has a shot and something to say. Him winning would be a shock and wouldn't necessarily sew up Virginia for Democrats, anyway. I don't think Biden actually throws his hat in the ring.
7. In more general terms, the question to be asked right now is "How do Republicans make inroads in a national election with the demographics that disfavor them lately?" Who's going to start pulling in Latino, African American, female, or under 30 votes in sufficient numbers to overcome recent demographic change? Until that person (or a platform designed to appeal to those groups regardless of the individual running) emerges, it's really hard for any Republican to get to 270 electoral votes, despite increased tightening in raw national vote percentage totals due to historial polarization and tribalism. These are factors that really hurt Scott Walker, by the way. I think the non-Koch, Inc. GOP establishment thinks their best path is through running an overtly moderate Jeb Bush, relying on the right wing to fall in line while Bush tries to use his biography and geography to move the needle with a couple of those groups who've broken significantly away from the GOP in recent elections.