View Poll Results: What will the electoral vote count look like?

Voters
106. You may not vote on this poll
  • Clinton Landslide: 350+ EVs

    6 5.66%
  • Clinton strong win: 325-350 EVs

    25 23.58%
  • Clinton solid win: 300-324 EVs

    53 50.00%
  • Clinton close win: 280-299 EVs

    14 13.21%
  • Clinton barely wins: 270-279 EVs

    4 3.77%
  • Tie: 269-269 EVs (also vote here if neither candidate get to 270)

    1 0.94%
  • Trump barely wins: 270-279 EVs

    1 0.94%
  • Trump close win: 280-299 EVs

    2 1.89%
  • Trump solid win: 300-324 EVs

    0 0%
  • Trump strong win: 325+ EVs

    0 0%
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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley

    2016 Presidential Race

    We love to look ahead and predict the future, and it's getting time to be that time of the political season where potential candidates are making themselves seriously known. (Whether they are taken seriously by anyone else is another story.)

    Keeping public policy discussions out of it, let's have some fun and raise our political binoculars, peer off into the distance, and see who's it going to be running for the President of the United States.
    Nate Silver has kicked things off with his predictions.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/clinto...151120593.html
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Nashville, TN
    Quote Originally Posted by roywhite View Post
    Wisc. Governor Scott Walker is my early choice to win the Repub nomination.

    Fits the tradition of governors being more viable candidates, gaining some momentum early, and last name not Bush.
    Walker will get crushed for not having a college degree. Not that I think it matters but many think it's important to have a degree from one of the elite institutions.

    If I wasn't enjoying this Duke basketball season so much I would ask to fast forward to November 9, 2016, so this election cycle is over.
       

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Location
    The Northwest
    I think if the Republicans are smart they'll go with Rubio. He has WAY more upside than any other choice. Jeb is horribly weighed down by the massive failure of his brother's presidency. Christie and Walker have way too many very big negatives with their states under their governor-ships.

    I totally get why people like Warren as a choice, but that does not seem like it's going to happen. Hilary is likely a done deal for the Dems, but I think she has a lot of red flags and isn't nearly as solid of a candidate as people keep promoting her as.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by gurufrisbee View Post
    I think if the Republicans are smart they'll go with Rubio. He has WAY more upside than any other choice. Jeb is horribly weighed down by the massive failure of his brother's presidency. Christie and Walker have way too many very big negatives with their states under their governor-ships.

    I totally get why people like Warren as a choice, but that does not seem like it's going to happen. Hilary is likely a done deal for the Dems, but I think she has a lot of red flags and isn't nearly as solid of a candidate as people keep promoting her as.
    I love Elizabeth Warren. In my ideal world, I would pick her first in any primary or election.

    But I think she's the liberal equivalent of Rand Paul or some of the right-wing nut jobs (to avoid trampling on PPB territory, I won't offer any names) -- just too far from the middle to win a general election.

    I'll stick witg Hilary -- not my favorite, but the best electable Democrat.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Summit County, Colo.
    Oh, do we have to?

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Summit County, Colo.
    Quote Originally Posted by duke79 View Post
    I'm already sick of the 2016 Presidential race.
    I'm with you, but I guess not everyone agrees.

    Spoiler alert: Hillary's winning and the Republicans are keeping Congress. This will rival 1996 as the most boring election in my lifetime. (At least 1984 had the specter of a 50-state sweep.) But go ahead, spend the next 21 months talking about it, suckers.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by hurleyfor3 View Post
    I'm with you, but I guess not everyone agrees.

    Spoiler alert: Hillary's winning and the Republicans are keeping Congress. This will rival 1996 as the most boring election in my lifetime. (At least 1984 had the specter of a 50-state sweep.) But go ahead, spend the next 21 months talking about it, suckers.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by hurleyfor3 View Post
    This will rival 1996 as the most boring election in my lifetime.
    Are you seriously suggesting that the Ross Perot/Pat Choate ticket did not blaze verve and energy into the proceedings?!?

    Granted, Choate was no Admiral Stockdale. Still . . . .

    (Man, I need hobbies)
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Summit County, Colo.
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Are you seriously suggesting that the Ross Perot/Pat Choate ticket did not blaze verve and energy into the proceedings?!?
    That's how bad '96 was; even Perot jumping in didn't make it less boring. 2012 turned out to be up there on the boringometer, in fact.

    (Man, I need hobbies)
    Not just you.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    Asheville
    I don't care for politics, but I do wish there were more than 2 choices. Sure, there are plenty of third parties, but none of them have a fair chance. 300,000,000+ People and only 2 candidates? Please.
    "I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend."

    -Thomas Jefferson

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by mattman91 View Post
    I don't care for politics, but I do wish there were more than 2 choices. Sure, there are plenty of third parties, but none of them have a fair chance. 300,000,000+ People and only 2 candidates? Please.
    Check out this Simpson's Treehouse of Horror episode (you can skip to the six minute mark for the relevant paqssage):

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tv5CT7r3Txo

  12. #12
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    Apr 2010
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    Asheville
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    Check out this Simpson's Treehouse of Horror episode (you can skip to the six minute mark for the relevant paqssage):

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tv5CT7r3Txo
    Ha! Gotta love the Simpsons.
    "I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend."

    -Thomas Jefferson

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!

    Warning

    Folks, I want to be very, very clear about something. The mods had a long discussion (with more than a little dissent) about whether to allow this thread to remain open. We are putting a major burden on all of you to PLAY NICELY here. Any partisan sniping or lack of civility will be met with stiff, stiff penalties. There will be no warnings given out. You squabble and you will get hit... hard... and find yourself taking a break from the DBR.

    I want everyone to understand that this does not mean you cannot display your party loyalty -- I am a liberal and will be rooting for the Democrats in the election -- but you must treat the other side with respect.

    Perhaps most importantly, if you see something that you think treads over the civility line, PLEASE REPORT IT, don't fire back. Let the mod team handle the response. If you do that then we should have no trouble keeping this thread open throughout the election.

    Thanks, everyone.

    -Jason "I do think it is insanely early for this conversation, but we can keep it sorta low-key for now before it really heats up in the late fall/early winter" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    I checked into this thread hoping it was about this:



    I am sorely disappointed it was about actual politics. Carry on.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Folks, I want to be very, very clear about something. The mods had a long discussion (with more than a little dissent) about whether to allow this thread to remain open. We are putting a major burden on all of you to PLAY NICELY here. Any partisan sniping or lack of civility will be met with stiff, stiff penalties. There will be no warnings given out. You squabble and you will get hit... hard... and find yourself taking a break from the DBR.

    I want everyone to understand that this does not mean you cannot display your party loyalty -- I am a liberal and will be rooting for the Democrats in the election -- but you must treat the other side with respect.
    Thanks for reopening. I started the thread because the talk of the race is now legitimately heating up, and it is always fun to see what surprises happen along the way. AND THERE ARE ALWAYS surprises. That's what this thread is for, the fun of the discussion of the suprises, the miscalculations, and maybe even the rarity of a boring election that winds up exactly how we think it will. (Not a snowball's chance.)
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Columbus, Ohio
    My predictions:

    Republicans will ultimately nominate John Kasich, the governor of Ohio.

    Democrats will ultimately nominate Hillary Clinton, who is much less in need of a four-word introduction.

    Mr. Kasich will win the presidency by holding Ohio and flipping Pennsylvania, and by trumping his handful of high-profile moderate credentials--Expanding Medicaid, and having balanced the budget back when he was in Congress in the 1990s--in addition to hammering away at the narrative he's already begun to articulate regarding Ohio's growth under his watch.

    Full disclosure: I am a Democrat that has never voted for Mr. Kasich.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by hurleyfor3 View Post
    I'm with you, but I guess not everyone agrees.
    LOL, I was being semi-facetious. I like politics as much as anyone but I think these presidential campaigns in the U.S. go on MUCH too long and cost way TOO much money. I believe that in many other democracies, they limit the length of time that candidates may campaign and have stricter campaign finance laws. I'm not sure that we're ending up with better candidates or have more in depth (and intelligent and informed) discussion of the real issues facing the country, given the amount of time that many individuals are campaigning (officially or not) and given the amount of money that has to be raised and spent on a presidential campaign. I don't know what the solution might be but there has a to be a better way to run our electoral process.

    See story below on Great Britain:

    http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2...s-election-day
    Last edited by JBDuke; 02-14-2015 at 08:56 PM. Reason: fixed quote tag

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by hurleyfor3 View Post
    I'm with you, but I guess not everyone agrees.

    LOL, I was being semi-facetious. I like politics as much as anyone but I think these presidential campaigns in the U.S. go on MUCH too long and cost way TOO much money. I believe that in many other democracies, they limit the length of time that candidates may campaign and have stricter campaign finance laws. I'm not sure that we're ending up with better candidates or have more in depth (and intelligent and informed) discussion of the real issues facing the country, given the amount of time that many individuals are campaigning (officially or not) and given the amount of money that has to be raised and spent on a presidential campaign. I don't know what the solution might be but there has a to be a better way to run our electoral process.

    See story below on Great Britain:

    http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2...s-election-day
    We need a Parliament.

    And a Funkadelic.

    George Clinton in 2016.


    "a Clinton we can all dance to"
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

  19. #19
    Dev11's Avatar
    Dev11 is offline Commissioner of Statistics, DBR Podcast
    Join Date
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    Denver
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post

    We need a Parlaiment.

    And a Funkadelic.

    George Clinton in 2016.


    "a Clinton we can all dance to"
    George Clinton was recently on Wait Wait Don't Tell Me and discussed many of these issues. I highly recommend checking out his segment.
    Last edited by JBDuke; 02-14-2015 at 08:28 PM. Reason: fixed quote tag
    Check out the Duke Basketball Report Podcast on Soundcloud, iTunes, and Stitcher!

    Also I'm on Twitter, for whatever that's worth (not much).

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dev11 View Post

    George Clinton was recently on Wait Wait Don't Tell Me and discussed many of these issues. I highly recommend checking out his segment.
    If we get Bootsy Collins to run as his VP, the Mothership will lead the national groove.

    (I'll check it out, thanks!)
    Last edited by JBDuke; 02-14-2015 at 08:36 PM. Reason: fixed quote tag
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

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