Duke football, our fans, and what is means for our bowl chances

[JasonEvans]

I was driving home from a meeting tonight and listening to local Atlanta sportsradio host Chuck Oliver. Chuck's schtick is that he is a super-expert on southern college football. He seems to know about everything and appears to be really connected. He is constantly breaking stories or talking about what he heard from members of various coaching staffs. He is not a bragger, proffering himself as some kind of special insider, he just seems like a guy in the know.

Anyway, he had just gotten done talking about LSU's wide receiver recruiting over the past several years when he started talking about Duke football. At first, I was elated because he never talks about Duke (it is all SEC with a little bit of Ga Tech, Clemson, and FSU most of the time for Chuck). He led by saying that Duke was even better this year than they were last year and he complimented the team for building on their impressive showing against Texas A&M a season ago. But, he then said that Duke is every bowl's nightmare and that the Orange Bowl is terrified they will have to pick Duke. He said it has nothing to do with the players, coaches, or administration -- it is all about the fans. The bowls all feel that Duke fans won't come to football games. He has been on the Chick-fil-a bowl selection committee for several years and he said there was real concern over picking Duke last year because the Duke basketball team was playing Elon the same day as the bowl game. "That's right, a basketball game against Elon is more interesting to that fanbase than a big time bowl game is," he said. I was floored...

I thought Duke had sold out -- or come darn close to selling out -- its bowl allotment the past couple years. I guess even if we sell it out, if our fans don't buy the general admission seats, maybe it makes us less attractive? I was at the Chick-fil-a bowl and though there appeared to be more A&M fans in the house, it wasn't an overwhelming showing and there were a lot of Duke folks.

Still, Chuck is not the kind of guy who throws out baseless accusations. I don't think he has anything to gain by bringing down Duke (he is not a Ga Tech homer, by a long stretch). If he was telling the truth, or even just saying what many college football insiders think, it really sucks

-Jason "I thought we heard about how excited the Chick-fil-a folks were to get Duke a year ago" Evans

[devildeac]

I was driving home from a meeting tonight and listening to local Atlanta sportsradio host Chuck Oliver. Chuck's schtick is that he is a super-expert on southern college football. He seems to know about everything and appears to be really connected. He is constantly breaking stories or talking about what he heard from members of various coaching staffs. He is not a bragger, proffering himself as some kind of special insider, he just seems like a guy in the know.

Anyway, he had just gotten done talking about LSU's wide receiver recruiting over the past several years when he started talking about Duke football. At first, I was elated because he never talks about Duke (it is all SEC with a little bit of Ga Tech, Clemson, and FSU most of the time for Chuck). He led by saying that Duke was even better this year than they were last year and he complimented the team for building on their impressive showing against Texas A&M a season ago. But, he then said that Duke is every bowl's nightmare and that the Orange Bowl is terrified they will have to pick Duke. He said it has nothing to do with the players, coaches, or administration -- it is all about the fans. The bowls all feel that Duke fans won't come to football games. He has been on the Chick-fil-a bowl selection committee for several years and he said there was real concern over picking Duke last year because the Duke basketball team was playing Elon the same day as the bowl game. "That's right, a basketball game against Elon is more interesting to that fanbase than a big time bowl game is," he said. I was floored...

I thought Duke had sold out -- or come darn close to selling out -- its bowl allotment the past couple years. I guess even if we sell it out, if our fans don't buy the general admission seats, maybe it makes us less attractive? I was at the Chick-fil-a bowl and though there appeared to be more A&M fans in the house, it wasn't an overwhelming showing and there were a lot of Duke folks.

Still, Chuck is not the kind of guy who throws out baseless accusations. I don't think he has anything to gain by bringing down Duke (he is not a Ga Tech homer, by a long stretch). If he was telling the truth, or even just saying what many college football insiders think, it really sucks

-Jason "I thought we heard about how excited the Chick-fil-a folks were to get Duke a year ago" Evans

From The Chronicle last year on 12/30:

"Duke has sold the majority of its 18,500-ticket allotment as well, and students are expected to be out in force. Thanks to donations from six members of the Iron Dukes, both undergrads and graduate students were able to pick up their Chick-fil-A Bowl tickets—priced at $90 face value—for free."

From CollegeFootballPoll:


"Getting a matchup like this is like getting to open your Christmas presents early," said Gary Stokan, Chick-fil-A Bowl president and CEO. "Pitting a 10-win Duke team, coming off its best season ever, against an SEC powerhouse brand like Texas A&M is going to create a very compelling shootout that we’ll get to show off in front of a sold-out crowd in the Georgia Dome New Year’s Eve."

I've Googled just about everything else I can think of but can't find any verification of how many tix Duke sold/bought for the Belk and CFA Bowls the last 2 years. Numbers I remember hearing were about 20K for each game with Duke selling/buying the most tix for 2012 and 2nd most for 2013 out of all the ACC schools.

Someone else help me here please.

[Scorp4me]

He might be someone in the know, but in this case I think he is not only wrong but poorly misinformed. But is anyone surprised??? I'm still shocked by how poorly the half time reporters were during the Duke/Pitt game. It was practically embarrassing the "information" they were spouting. Fan support at Wade is poor no doubt (although it's not as bad as the tv makes it look in person due to the camera placement). But the bowl support has been great based on what I've read and seen in person.

[Henderson]

I've sort of expressed here the Chuck Oliver view: That if discretion plays a role, Duke will lose a bowl nod in part because of the fan support issue. Others assured me that Duke bought tickets to previous bowls, so all is good. OK.

But bowl committees and other deciders have that information, so why would there be a perception that Duke fans don't support the Duke football team?

Look at WW photos during this year's home games. I live 2000 miles away, so I can only watch games through televised media, and what I see are a lot [a LOT] of empty seats. Blame it on camera placement if you want, but I don't buy it. Cameras pan both sides of the field, and it's not full on either side. Maybe Duke sold out its allotment of bowl tickets the last couple years (I don't know), but do we know who bought those tickets and how many fans actually went to the games? Or more importantly how many fans came from out of town and spent $$ on hotels, meals, etc.? I genuinely do not know. But I watched the last two bowl games and didn't see waves of Duke fans.

Then there are the TV ratings, monitored closely by the bowls. Bad TV ratings sting a bowl badly. Johnny Football can generate ratings for a Duke football game, but can Duke generate ratings for a Duke game? It's hard to say yes if Saturdays at Wallace Wade say no.

I'd love to be wrong about this, and the stats may prove me wrong (I hope). But if there are stats out there demonstrating that Duke can be a draw on game day, both in the stands and on television, those stats are available to bowl committees too. So are the TV feeds from WW on Saturdays, and what they see are a lot of empty seats. I suspect they extrapolate from there regarding a Duke football bowl draw, and if there is evidence that such extrapolation is unwarranted, the proof needs to be pretty strong. And Duke won't get credit for ratings if the game featured Johnny Manziel. Do bowl selection personnel just have bad information? I doubt the Duke SID office fails to present any relevant stats.

[Duvall]

From The Chronicle last year on 12/30:

"Duke has sold the majority of its 18,500-ticket allotment as well, and students are expected to be out in force. Thanks to donations from six members of the Iron Dukes, both undergrads and graduate students were able to pick up their Chick-fil-A Bowl tickets—priced at $90 face value—for free."

From CollegeFootballPoll:


"Getting a matchup like this is like getting to open your Christmas presents early," said Gary Stokan, Chick-fil-A Bowl president and CEO. "Pitting a 10-win Duke team, coming off its best season ever, against an SEC powerhouse brand like Texas A&M is going to create a very compelling shootout that we’ll get to show off in front of a sold-out crowd in the Georgia Dome New Year’s Eve."
o.

It's almost like everyone associated with the crooked bowl system is a two-face liar. Who knew?

[OldPhiKap]

If they don't respect you, win and MAKE them respect you.

Take care of what we control, and they don't have a choice.

[Duvall]

If they don't respect you, win and MAKE them respect you.

Take care of what we control, and they don't have a choice.

To be fair, it's not like college football is a real sport. Winning only gets you so far - marketability is as important, sometimes more. But you're right in that it's the only thing Duke can control.

[devildeac]

It's almost like everyone associated with the crooked bowl system is a two-face liar. Who knew?

So, what's your point? We get your dislike of the bowl system. Repeatedly. It appears Jason would like some evidence to support his belief that Duke fans traveled (surprisingly?) well to the Belk and CFA Bowls, probably spending a lot of money on tickets, airfare, hotels, meals and entertainment. This bowl was estimated to be worth more than $12 million to the city of Atlanta in 2007 but I could find no other more recent data. I searched for about 30 minutes to try and support his claim and unfortunately had little success except my recall of Duke's ticket sales and all you can do is refer/infer that the two quotes I posted from The Chronicle and a Chick-Fil-A representative are lies/liars. Let's see your next response have some evidence either refuting or backing up his/our/Duke's beliefs that we did very well supporting/justifying our selection for these games and just might make it a trifecta this year for whatever bowl we attend.

[Jarhead]

It looks as if some of us have forgotten how long we have been less than attractive to fans. It goes back a long time, all the way back to Spurrier, maybe even longer. Since then we lost interest in football. Not me, though. My youngest son and I have had our season tickets since the early seventies, and I can only remember about ten games that I could not attend a game. The tickets were always put to use.

As time wore on I began to see empty seats all over the stadium, the student section the biggest blow. Even this year students tend to stay away. In my day on campus it hard to see empty seats. Now we have a coach whose teams have won more games in Wallace Wade the last few seasons, just a guess, than the last 25 years. Now we are winning, but the habit of going to football games had disintegrated to zilch. Now it is beginning to work, and more people are showing up. Give it a little more time, and we'll be showing up in hordes. Today's student body is not used to this. When it becomes habitual, fans will be there. Then there is the modernization of the stadium. That in itself will bring more fans.

[Olympic Fan]

Jason ... I found this article from the N&O after the 2012 Belk Bowl:

http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/12/...ukes.html?rh=1

The relevant paragraph:

-- Belk Bowl executive director Will Webb was pleased with the ticket sales for both Duke and Cincinnati. Duke sold 11,000 of the 12,500 tickets allotted to the athletic department. “Based off of media reports, that’s more than any other ACC team going to a bowl game this year,” Webb said. Duke fans also bought tickets through other outlets, including directly from the Belk Bowl, and Webb said there were over 20,000 Duke fans in attendance. Cincinnati distributed 10,000 of its 12,500 tickets, and Webb estimated that there were 10,000 Bearcats supporters in attendance

Don't know what we did in Atlanta.

[uh_no]

It looks as if some of us have forgotten how long we have been less than attractive to fans. It goes back a long time, all the way back to Spurrier, maybe even longer. Since then we lost interest in football. Not me, though. My youngest son and I have had our season tickets since the early seventies, and I can only remember about ten games that I could not attend a game. The tickets were always put to use.

As time wore on I began to see empty seats all over the stadium, the student section the biggest blow. Even this year students tend to stay away. In my day on campus it hard to see empty seats. Now we have a coach whose teams have won more games in Wallace Wade the last few seasons, just a guess, than the last 25 years. Now we are winning, but the habit of going to football games had disintegrated to zilch. Now it is beginning to work, and more people are showing up. Give it a little more time, and we'll be showing up in hordes. Today's student body is not used to this. When it becomes habitual, fans will be there. Then there is the modernization of the stadium. That in itself will bring more fans.

This doesn't make sense to me.

Having sat in the student section for each game this year, it has been relatively full each week...at least to the degree that i couldn't just "sit wherever i wanted to" as I'd done...even last year.

[Duvall]

I've sort of expressed here the Chuck Oliver view: That if discretion plays a role, Duke will lose a bowl nod in part because of the fan support issue. Others assured me that Duke bought tickets to previous bowls, so all is good. OK.

But bowl committees and other deciders have that information, so why would there be a perception that Duke fans don't support the Duke football team?

Look at WW photos during this year's home games. I live 2000 miles away, so I can only watch games through televised media, and what I see are a lot [a LOT] of empty seats. Blame it on camera placement if you want, but I don't buy it. Cameras pan both sides of the field, and it's not full on either side. Maybe Duke sold out its allotment of bowl tickets the last couple years (I don't know), but do we know who bought those tickets and how many fans actually went to the games? Or more importantly how many fans came from out of town and spent $$ on hotels, meals, etc.? I genuinely do not know. But I watched the last two bowl games and didn't see waves of Duke fans.

Then there are the TV ratings, monitored closely by the bowls. Bad TV ratings sting a bowl badly. Johnny Football can generate ratings for a Duke football game, but can Duke generate ratings for a Duke game? It's hard to say yes if Saturdays at Wallace Wade say no.

I'd love to be wrong about this, and the stats may prove me wrong (I hope). But if there are stats out there demonstrating that Duke can be a draw on game day, both in the stands and on television, those stats are available to bowl committees too. So are the TV feeds from WW on Saturdays, and what they see are a lot of empty seats. I suspect they extrapolate from there regarding a Duke football bowl draw, and if there is evidence that such extrapolation is unwarranted, the proof needs to be pretty strong. And Duke won't get credit for ratings if the game featured Johnny Manziel. Do bowl selection personnel just have bad information? I doubt the Duke SID office fails to present any relevant stats.

Well, maybe. That feels like it could be a sucker's game, though - fill the stadium, and they'll complain that the stadium is too small. Expand the stadium, and prepare to be mocked for having only 40,000 seats. The big public schools and their network and bowl cronies don't want schools like Duke in their club, and I doubt they ever will. Worrying about impressing them seems like a waste of energy.

[-bdbd]

To be fair, Bowls are big business. They are not there to lose money. If you are part of a Bowl committee, are you more inclined to take a team - assuming identical records/rankings - that has a huge fan and alumni base, and is known to draw well on TV too, or a smallish private school with a reputation (by all appearances fairly well deserved) for not turning out big FB crowds and limited TV appeal? I really don't think it has to be a hidden agenda sort of thing, as much as simple, straightforward economics. So, yeah, big state schools will always have a huge advantage in the Bowl selection game. That is part of what props up the Big Ten in FB (as well as the SEC, but they can at least point to clear FB/program quality too), the ability to dependably deliver large loyal crowds at home and on the road (especially for bowl games). I remember the '94 Outback Bowl in Orlando - until two years ago this was Duke's most recent bowl appearance - and seeing at least 75% (80%?) of that Tampa stadium packed with red-clothed, cheese-headed Wisconsin fans. The parking lot at the stadium had probably 100+ RV's in it, almost all with WI license plates. And they all came out very early and really knew how to tailgate. (And they were very visible all over town in the preceding days as well, clearly outspending Duke fans by their sheer volume.)

It's big business. So why WOULDN'T a Bowl committee want to lock in that sort of support from attending fanbases?

The only "unfairness" in this discussion is that Duke has, by most accounts, had really good turnouts for these last two bowls, especially last year in Atlanta. The long-earned rep for poor fan support just won't go away easilky, apparently. I was at the CFA game in Atlanta last year, sitting in the Duke section. I certainly did not feel outnumbered at that game. Duke fans were loud and numerous, to the point that I was really proud (and plesantly surprised) at our fan showing. Some regular sellouts at Wally Wade - which will be helped by the many planned improvements coming to the facillitities there, as well as developing a winning tradition - will help change our rep as well.

But there's no real "agenda," as much as there's just business decisions being made by those risk-averse bowl committees chasing the almighty buck.

[Wander]

It's big business. So why WOULDN'T a Bowl committee want to lock in that sort of support from attending fanbases?

The NFL is a business too. If Cleveland finishes 10-6 and Pittsburgh finishes 9-7, should the Steelers make the playoffs over the Browns because they have a better fanbase?

[brevity]

Bowls are big business. They are not there to lose money.

In the case of the 2010 Fiesta Bowl, they are there to take money.

But you're right. Outside of the 4-team playoff, bowls are largely meaningless endeavors. A bowl game is sort of about football, but it's mainly a multi-day destination conference shared by two separate fanbases. If I were to represent one of the Florida bowls (Orange, Russell, Taxslayer), I would be extremely interested in seeing FSU or Clemson rise or fall to my location. By comparison, Duke is a novelty and a risk.

Seeing Duke fans fill up stadiums in Charlotte and Atlanta is nice, but hardly representative of how well -- or not well -- Duke Football travels. Charlotte and Atlanta already have significant bases of local alumni, plus a larger spread of same-day travelers, so the past 2 years also don't tell us much about how much money Duke fans put into hotels, restaurants, and other local businesses. Sure, it's all an anti-Duke bias, but one grounded in genuine economic concern.

Henderson can speak to this, but I recall BYU being a favorite target of the Las Vegas Bowl (they played there from 2005-2009). Despite the stereotype of the Mormon teetotaler, BYU fans came in droves and spent a lot of money. With BYU now independent of the Mountain West Conference, they are no longer affiliated with that bowl, and Boise State has become the new Vegas regular.

The NFL is a business too. If Cleveland finishes 10-6 and Pittsburgh finishes 9-7, should the Steelers make the playoffs over the Browns because they have a better fanbase?

If the bowl games had no affiliation rules in place, wouldn't they all pursue Alabama and Notre Dame?

[tux]

While it sucks to have bowl committees hoping for a Duke loss or two, there's not much we can do about it. If Duke keeps on winning, we'll be in a good bowl. The only minor issue I see is that the "New Year's Six" bowl selection process is now tied to the CFB rankings. I.e., while the bowl selection process is not rocket science, there does seem to be a lot of different ideas out there about how it works.

Here's an explanation from ESPN:

The 13-member selection committee will not only provide the final Top 25 rankings, but will determine which teams go to which New Year's Six bowls that do not have conference tie-ins. In other words, you'll see fewer bowl reps on campus wearing tacky blazers because they have no control over who comes to their bowl. That's right: no control over what team plays in their bowl. Nada.

Here's a recent quote from the Orange Bowl website:

Hey Clemson Football and Alabama Football fans! For the third straight week, according to the newly released College Football Playoff Rankings, if the season ended today, you'd be planning a New Year's trip to South Florida for the 2015 Capital One Orange Bowl!

Does that not open the door for some back room deals? It's one thing to have the final rankings determined by a broader poll (AP) or computer rankings that take a lot of hard data into account. But the CFB committee has already shown the willingness to buck conventional wisdom, seemingly moving teams around based on stuff like Condi Rice's opinions and the fact that she's a PAC-10 fan (half-joking here, of course).

Say Duke wins out and Clemson drops another game. Considering how much money is at stake, what if the CFB final rankings slide Clemson one slot ahead of us (perhaps pointing to SOS). That would be a big big favor to the Orange Bowl. And the CFB committee is only 10-12 people. I don't know, not saying there'll be some conspiracy, just saying that the CFB has a lot more power than just picking the final 4, although that's what most fans will focus on.

[OldPhiKap]

Does that not open the door for some back room deals? It's one thing to have the final rankings determined by a broader poll (AP) or computer rankings that take a lot of hard data into account. But the CFB committee has already shown the willingness to buck conventional wisdom, seemingly moving teams around based on stuff like Condi Rice's opinions and the fact that she's a PAC-10 fan (half-joking here, of course).

Say Duke wins out and Clemson drops another game. Considering how much money is at stake, what if the CFB final rankings slide Clemson one slot ahead of us (perhaps pointing to SOS). That would be a big big favor to the Orange Bowl. And the CFB committee is only 10-12 people. I don't know, not saying there'll be some conspiracy, just saying that the CFB has a lot more power than just picking the final 4, although that's what most fans will focus on.

Yes, I have the sick sense that if we beat VT this weekend and GT beats Clemson, GT jumps us even though we beat them.

But we'll see. It's all irrelevant if we don't beat VT.

One thing is for certain -- if we take care of business and win the ACC CG, we go to the Orange Bowl (or higher). We can control that. So, we don't have much choice other than to go get it.

[budwom]

Two comments:
1) Chuck Oliver is a misinformed idiot
2) So much angst and gnashing of teeth on various boards about getting passed in the bowl hierarchy. We and just about everyone else has three games left. Win them and good things will happen, lose some, fewer good things will happen.

There is NO reason to pre-bum out about all this.

Third gratuitous thought: Georgia Tech is a boring, suck-o team to watch, I don't think bowls will salivate over them.

[Wander]

Yes, I have the sick sense that if we beat VT this weekend and GT beats Clemson, GT jumps us even though we beat them.

Third gratuitous thought: Georgia Tech is a boring, suck-o team to watch, I don't think bowls will salivate over them.

I agree with OPK. Remember, the Orange Bowl has to go with whoever is ranked higher. I watched the last rankings show, and it seems the committee is placing very little emphasis on head-to-head (contrary to their original claim) - they basically say it's only used as a last resort tiebreaker. If GT beats Clemson and UGA, I'm afraid the committee is going to see a 10-2 GT team as easily ahead of a 11-2 Duke team. The only chance really is that the committee says they're going to put a lot of weight on conference titles - does that mean division titles too? Who knows? Best to win out, including FSU, to make it all moot.

[bleudiable]

I find it interesting that our well-heeled alumni base has demonstrated for the last two years that they have the $ and freedom to travel over the holidays for a bowl game, but our lack of a large, local alumni base resulting in low home crowds hurts us in perception of our ability to travel.

As someone said earlier, keep winning and improve the game day experience (shuttles from the hospital lot for those of us who are not Iron Dukes?--aargh!) and crowds will improve. As that happens, so will the perception of "bowl-ability."

And yes, the home bank of WW is often nearly full for early season games while sitting on the far side roasting and staring into the fourth quarter sun is not fun and therefore not popular, but that's what the TV crowd sees-lots of empty seats.