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  1. #1

    The Dork Polls 2015

    I know this dosen't mean much but interesting nonetheless.

    HTML Code:
    http://kenpom.com

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Summit County, Colo.
    Ken probably noticed we care about dork polls more than any other fanbase and threw us a bone.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    This is sort of like Lunardi doing his Bracketology in May. Hard to take much stock in this without any actual game data to work with.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Boston, MA
    What stats is Kenpom using? His top 20 is like a blue chip parade with Wichita St thrown in there.

    Also, come on! Wichita St! Again? Sorry, but I'm probably the one dude in America who loves the BCS teams more than the mid-majors.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    What stats is Kenpom using? His top 20 is like a blue chip parade with Wichita St thrown in there.

    Also, come on! Wichita St! Again? Sorry, but I'm probably the one dude in America who loves the BCS teams more than the mid-majors.
    he describes it here:

    http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/web...n_ratings_2014

    I'm sure he tweaks it year to year, as it seems way too much of a difference on defense to NOT have taken incoming frosh into account.
    basketball is back, baby!

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    New York
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    What stats is Kenpom using? His top 20 is like a blue chip parade with Wichita St thrown in there.

    Also, come on! Wichita St! Again? Sorry, but I'm probably the one dude in America who loves the BCS teams more than the mid-majors.
    Some explanation here and here. He uses a combination of past five years' program performance, returning player performance, and the rankings of incoming recruits. Looks as though it works as well as any other system, including the AP poll.

    ETA: uh no beat me to it. On D, my guess is that last year's defensive disaster is treated as an aberration from an otherwise very strong defensive profile. 2012 was also not great, but otherwise we are a good program defensively.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by Des Esseintes View Post
    Some explanation here and here. He uses a combination of past five years' program performance, returning player performance, and the rankings of incoming recruits. Looks as though it works as well as any other system, including the AP poll.
    Yeah, but the beauty of Kenpom is his use of actual stats rather than relying on bunch of hunches. I understand his methodology, but I don't really understand the necessity to have a "pre-season" ranking based on hardcore metrics/actual stats. Just my two cents.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    San Francisco

    unc

    Interesting that he ranks unc 20th; much lower than others have ranked the heels. Maybe he deducted points for ethics standards.

  9. #9
    This early nod of respect is likely due to a phenomenon loosely referred to as the OIE... Or the Okafor Intimidation Effect. Although not entirely understood or even universally accepted, particularly in regions that practice equine worship, many experts have already accepted the OIE as law.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by Bay Area Duke Fan View Post
    Interesting that he ranks unc 20th; much lower than others have ranked the heels. Maybe he deducted points for ethics standards.
    Not to worry. They can get extra points for submitting a paper.
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    greater New Orleans area
    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    Not to worry. They can get extra points for submitting a paper.
    Actually they get the extra points by having someone else say they submitted a paper.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    Yeah, but the beauty of Kenpom is his use of actual stats rather than relying on bunch of hunches. I understand his methodology, but I don't really understand the necessity to have a "pre-season" ranking based on hardcore metrics/actual stats. Just my two cents.
    It's a necessary business decision. His "in-season" analysis is widely admired and cited. Unhappily, it's not useful until about January. But he has paying subscribers plus followers in the press and all, so he has to do something. So, he has a stopgap pre-season analysis and then he uses a hybrid model (the pre-season expectations and actual performance) until he can go "full production," when he has enough data to rely solely on his model (or combination of models).
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    I beg to differ

    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    It's a necessary business decision. His "in-season" analysis is widely admired and cited. Unhappily, it's not useful until about January. But he has paying subscribers plus followers in the press and all, so he has to do something. So, he has a stopgap pre-season analysis and then he uses a hybrid model (the pre-season expectations and actual performance) until he can go "full production," when he has enough data to rely solely on his model (or combination of models).
    I think he's doing it to see if he can do a better job than the preseason polls. It is a laudable goal, although, like you, I'm not at all convinced that it's worth very much.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New York City

    ESPN Pre-season Top Power Ranking

    *First, I wonder if we should rename this thread 2014-2015 Dork Poll Tracking.

    ESPN has Duke at #4 in its preseason Power Ranking.

    Excerpt:

    Early speculation held that Cook would be the odd man out of the starting lineup with the arrival of freshman point guard Tyus Jones. But Cook used his summer wisely too, improving and showing consistency. Now, don't be surprised if Jones and Cook both start in the backcourt.

    Freshman Justise Winslow will challenge junior Rasheed Sulaimon, who played some point guard last season, at small forward.
    Singler is IRON

    I STILL GOT IT! -- Ryan Kelly, March 2, 2013

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC area
    Quote Originally Posted by mr. synellinden View Post
    *First, I wonder if we should rename this thread 2014-2015 Dork Poll Tracking.

    ESPN has Duke at #4 in its preseason Power Ranking.

    Excerpt:

    Early speculation held that Cook would be the odd man out of the starting lineup with the arrival of freshman point guard Tyus Jones. But Cook used his summer wisely too, improving and showing consistency. Now, don't be surprised if Jones and Cook both start in the backcourt.

    Freshman Justise Winslow will challenge junior Rasheed Sulaimon, who played some point guard last season, at small forward.
    That has to be the worst presentation of a poll I've ever seen...

    -jk

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Nashville
    Quote Originally Posted by -jk View Post
    That has to be the worst presentation of a poll I've ever seen...

    -jk
    That's what I was thinking, although I don't necessarily disagree with ranking Duke at 4.

    At any rate, I hope KenPom is prescient.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Kenpom #1, but only projected to go 25-5 (Overall) / 14-4 (ACC) on the team page.

    We have a tough schedule this year apparently. Let's hope we're not too far off from #1. If we're #8, we might end up with 7 losses or more.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Kenpom #1, but only projected to go 25-5 (Overall) / 14-4 (ACC) on the team page.

    We have a tough schedule this year apparently. Let's hope we're not too far off from #1. If we're #8, we might end up with 7 losses or more.
    that was our record in 2010, if i recall
    basketball is back, baby!

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Location
    Gates House (House H for you old timers)
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    that was our record in 2010, if i recall
    26-5, 13-3

    Close, but not quite. Notably, we only played 16 conference games that year, not 18.

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Ken's latest explanation

    Some good stuff here:

    http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/web...n_ratings_2015

    "The system does not give any special consideration to new players entering the program. There is some credit given for high-profile recruits, but the poor performances in 2012-13 of UCLA and Kentucky, among others, in recent years have tended to mute the impact of recruits in the model. Recruiting rankings are useful, but the impact of high-level prospects on their respective teams as freshman can vary wildly."

    Makes me even more optimistic

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