Ken probably noticed we care about dork polls more than any other fanbase and threw us a bone.
I know this dosen't mean much but interesting nonetheless.
HTML Code:http://kenpom.com
Ken probably noticed we care about dork polls more than any other fanbase and threw us a bone.
This is sort of like Lunardi doing his Bracketology in May. Hard to take much stock in this without any actual game data to work with.
What stats is Kenpom using? His top 20 is like a blue chip parade with Wichita St thrown in there.
Also, come on! Wichita St! Again? Sorry, but I'm probably the one dude in America who loves the BCS teams more than the mid-majors.
Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill
President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club
he describes it here:
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/web...n_ratings_2014
I'm sure he tweaks it year to year, as it seems way too much of a difference on defense to NOT have taken incoming frosh into account.
April 1
Some explanation here and here. He uses a combination of past five years' program performance, returning player performance, and the rankings of incoming recruits. Looks as though it works as well as any other system, including the AP poll.
ETA: uh no beat me to it. On D, my guess is that last year's defensive disaster is treated as an aberration from an otherwise very strong defensive profile. 2012 was also not great, but otherwise we are a good program defensively.
Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill
President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club
Interesting that he ranks unc 20th; much lower than others have ranked the heels. Maybe he deducted points for ethics standards.
This early nod of respect is likely due to a phenomenon loosely referred to as the OIE... Or the Okafor Intimidation Effect. Although not entirely understood or even universally accepted, particularly in regions that practice equine worship, many experts have already accepted the OIE as law.
It's a necessary business decision. His "in-season" analysis is widely admired and cited. Unhappily, it's not useful until about January. But he has paying subscribers plus followers in the press and all, so he has to do something. So, he has a stopgap pre-season analysis and then he uses a hybrid model (the pre-season expectations and actual performance) until he can go "full production," when he has enough data to rely solely on his model (or combination of models).
Sage Grouse
---------------------------------------
'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013
*First, I wonder if we should rename this thread 2014-2015 Dork Poll Tracking.
ESPN has Duke at #4 in its preseason Power Ranking.
Excerpt:
Early speculation held that Cook would be the odd man out of the starting lineup with the arrival of freshman point guard Tyus Jones. But Cook used his summer wisely too, improving and showing consistency. Now, don't be surprised if Jones and Cook both start in the backcourt.
Freshman Justise Winslow will challenge junior Rasheed Sulaimon, who played some point guard last season, at small forward.
Singler is IRON
I STILL GOT IT! -- Ryan Kelly, March 2, 2013
Kenpom #1, but only projected to go 25-5 (Overall) / 14-4 (ACC) on the team page.
We have a tough schedule this year apparently. Let's hope we're not too far off from #1. If we're #8, we might end up with 7 losses or more.
26-5, 13-3
Close, but not quite. Notably, we only played 16 conference games that year, not 18.
Some good stuff here:
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/web...n_ratings_2015
"The system does not give any special consideration to new players entering the program. There is some credit given for high-profile recruits, but the poor performances in 2012-13 of UCLA and Kentucky, among others, in recent years have tended to mute the impact of recruits in the model. Recruiting rankings are useful, but the impact of high-level prospects on their respective teams as freshman can vary wildly."
Makes me even more optimistic