Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 25
  1. #1

    Dork Stats/Polls, Football Edition, 2014 Season

    Meant to start this last week, but oh well. Some of you may recall I kept track of this last year - basically the point of this thread is to keep track of the advanced computer numbers and statistics for the Duke team, which should give us a better picture of how good the team is than human polls. Computers and stats do not have an SEC bias, for example. On the other hand, the best computers and stats actually don't have a bias in favor of WINNING - it's about outplaying opponents, not necessarily coming out with the win. These measures also account for competition, so Duke's super weak competition early on won't impress the computers, and may hurt them since vs at least one team (Troy), Duke didn't truly blow them out.

    Note I won't be talking about polls and numbers used by the selection committee in this post: those have stupid restrictions like no margin of victory and thus are generally useless. So let's talk about useful ones:

    Sagarin:

    You all probably know Sagarin, he does every sport. Like in the other sports, we're interested in the predictor poll, which is meant to best predict future games. By the predictor, Sagarin has Duke as the 38th best team in the nation, and #2 in the coastal, behind only VaTech. One neat useful thing about Sagarin is that we can use it to project the betting lines for each remaining game of Duke, which are as follows:
    Duke @ Pitt : Pitt favored by 1.
    Duke @ Cuse: Duke favored by 1.
    Duke vs VT: Duke favored by 1.5
    Duke vs UNC: Duke favored by 9
    Duke vs Wake: Duke favored by 24.

    No that last one is not a typo. Wake is BAD. But as you can see, the next three games are basically toss-ups, whereas the last two are clear Duke favorites. So Sagarin would expect for Duke to most likely win 3.5 games, so they'd finish with either 9 or 10 wins. Depending upon who those wins are against (if the loss is vs Cuse it's pretty okay since that wont hurt tiebreaks), the team could still win the Coastal.

    Note that Sagarin simply uses scores to make his rankings, so if teams are getting lucky to score, Sagarin won't know.

    Football Outsiders

    By contrast, Football Outsiders uses two main statistical measures, FEI and S&P+, to try and determine which teams are truly good instead of being lucky with points.

    FEI has for two years now been far more favorable to Duke than S&P, for a simple reason: S&P is seemingly based upon yards gained per various types of plays, while FEI is focused more on drive efficiency - so a bend but not break D will look more favorable in FEI if it's working. It's debatable which is a better predictor than the other, so Football Outsiders also likes to combine these measures into a measure called F/+. Unfortunately, F/+ is not yet updated for this week, so I'll post it here when it's updated, probably tomorrow.

    Anyhow, FEI currently has the Isles as the 24th best team in college football. FEI thinks Duke is the 57th best offense, but the SEVENTH best defense in the COUNTRY. FEI also ranks Duke as the 6th best in special teams efficiency (due to the #13 field goal performance, #15 kick return performance, and #6 performance in punting and punt coverage).

    S&P is a lot less optimistic, putting Duke at 56th overall and behind UVA, VT, NC State (it REALLY likes State for some reason), and GTech. By S&P, Duke is 60th on O and 53rd on D. S&P also has run/pass breakdowns - Duke's O is 50th in rushing, 97th in Passing. Duke's D is 78th in stopping the run but 37th at stopping the pass.

    --------------------------
    One other football outsiders resource you might want to look at are their line play rankings, which rank the Offensive (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaaol) and Defensive lines (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaadl. The O Line is ranked 49th in the Country, but its so low only because Duke hasn't been able to perform well punching it through on 3rd and short. Duke is SECOND IN THE COUNTRY at preventing sacks. That's pretty awesome.

    Naturally our D Line is well below average - 93rd in the Country, below average in practically every category.

    Anyhow, except for F/+, which I'll update tomorrow, that's it for this week.
    <devildeac> anyone playing drinking games by now?
    7:49:36<Wander> drink every qb run?
    7:49:38<loran16> umm, drink every time asack rushes?
    7:49:38<wolfybeard> @devildeac: drink when Asack runs a keeper
    7:49:39 PM<CB&B> any time zack runs, drink

    Carolina Delenda Est

  2. #2
    Update:

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus - F/+ is up, and Duke ranks 24th in that as well, with the #59 O and the #14 (!!) D.
    <devildeac> anyone playing drinking games by now?
    7:49:36<Wander> drink every qb run?
    7:49:38<loran16> umm, drink every time asack rushes?
    7:49:38<wolfybeard> @devildeac: drink when Asack runs a keeper
    7:49:39 PM<CB&B> any time zack runs, drink

    Carolina Delenda Est

  3. #3

    sports-reference.com's predictions (think they'd give 3 pts for home)

    based on SRS ...

    @Pitt ... Duke fav by 3 on neutral field so toss-up at Pitt
    @Cuse ... Duke fav by 8.5 on neutral field so Duke fav by 5.5 at Cuse
    VT ... Duke dog by 1.35 on neutral so Duke fav by 2.5-ish at home
    UNC ... Duke fav by 7.5 on neutral field so Duke fav by 10.5 at home
    WF ... Duke fav by 18+ on neutral field so Duke fav by 21+ at home

    2014 School Ratings | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by loran16 View Post
    Update:

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus - F/+ is up, and Duke ranks 24th in that as well, with the #59 O and the #14 (!!) D.
    The Football Outsiders opponent-adjusted stats really are amazing -- can't ever have imagined seeing the day when a Duke Football defense ranks 14th in the country! Just 4-5 years ago we were probably within the 10 worst defenses in all of college footbal, with almost literally no chance of stopping anyone unless their runners tripped over their own feet or QBs missed wide-open receivers.

    What a remarkable turnaround.

    And the ACC's Ds as a whole look like they should get a little more respect, with Va Tech, Clemson and Louisville joining more-widely recognized Alabama, Ole Miss and Stanford as the top 6 defenses.

    The #59 ranking for our O confirms the "eye test," that we definitely have room for improvement there -- could use more consistency from Anthony Boone and performance from our O-line on first and 10/3rd and short rushing situations that comes closer to matching what they did last year (finishing the year at #33 in Offensive Efficiency per Football Outsiders).

  5. #5
    Bill Connelly writes at SB Nation and Football Outsiders, and is behind S&P+. He wrote an ACC Projection today:

    http://www.sbnation.com/college-foot...rojection-2014

    Via F/+, he gives Duke the following odds at winning:
    @Pitt: 43.8%
    @Cuse: 92.1%
    VaTech: 60.6%
    UNC: 93.5%
    Wake: 98.4%


    That Cuse # is far higher than any other system. He also projects us as most likely to go 6-2 and for the only other likely 6-2 team to be Pitt - so beating Pitt next week will be critical. You should all really read the analysis, it's REALLY GOOD.
    <devildeac> anyone playing drinking games by now?
    7:49:36<Wander> drink every qb run?
    7:49:38<loran16> umm, drink every time asack rushes?
    7:49:38<wolfybeard> @devildeac: drink when Asack runs a keeper
    7:49:39 PM<CB&B> any time zack runs, drink

    Carolina Delenda Est

  6. #6
    Updated Sagarin #s after last week's game:

    In the predictor, we are 37th, basically the same as before. As of now, we are favored by Sagarin clearly in all remaining games, with the projected lines as follows:
    Duke -4 CUSE
    DUKE -6 VaTech
    DUKE -11 North Carolina
    DUKE -25 Wake Forest.

    The computers are still not impressed with UNC. And being home swings VaTech very much in our favor.
    <devildeac> anyone playing drinking games by now?
    7:49:36<Wander> drink every qb run?
    7:49:38<loran16> umm, drink every time asack rushes?
    7:49:38<wolfybeard> @devildeac: drink when Asack runs a keeper
    7:49:39 PM<CB&B> any time zack runs, drink

    Carolina Delenda Est

  7. #7
    Duke is the 34th best team per S-R:

    http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/...4-ratings.html

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    I don't really disagree with our rankings in Sagarin, but has he ever addressed the difficulty in good statistics with the lack of cross conference play? I know in basketball it takes a while for teams to be "fully connected" in KenPom and could imagine in football that with the high level of variance in single games and lack of games against other conferences (easy for the few non conference games to show results that don't truly reflect the strength of either team) it would be difficult to have meaningful "geek" rankings in college football.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Lewisville, NC

    #22 and #20

    After the games of Saturday, Nov. 1, Duke checks in at #22 in the AP and #20 in the USA Today.

    http://espn.go.com/college-football/rankings/_/week/11

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by roywhite View Post
    After the games of Saturday, Nov. 1, Duke checks in at #22 in the AP and #20 in the USA Today.

    http://espn.go.com/college-football/rankings/_/week/11
    Wait! Texas A&M in "others receiving votes?" Must be the Duke (football) curse now.
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Acymetric View Post
    I don't really disagree with our rankings in Sagarin, but has he ever addressed the difficulty in good statistics with the lack of cross conference play? I know in basketball it takes a while for teams to be "fully connected" in KenPom and could imagine in football that with the high level of variance in single games and lack of games against other conferences (easy for the few non conference games to show results that don't truly reflect the strength of either team) it would be difficult to have meaningful "geek" rankings in college football.
    Well, this is an issue really with all football leagues - pros to - not just college. Your sample size is very small so it's always going to be very volatile. That said, gaps between teams tend to be larger in college, so it's less of an issue than you'd think.

    The FO stats use data from past seasons for like 6 games, for this reason, but obviously it still is an issue.
    <devildeac> anyone playing drinking games by now?
    7:49:36<Wander> drink every qb run?
    7:49:38<loran16> umm, drink every time asack rushes?
    7:49:38<wolfybeard> @devildeac: drink when Asack runs a keeper
    7:49:39 PM<CB&B> any time zack runs, drink

    Carolina Delenda Est

  12. #12

    Football Outsiders Stats.

    FO's stats are all up right now.

    First the S&P+ rankings, which rely upon yards and efficiency gaining/stopping yardage. Duke is now #50 in the country, with the #40 Offense and #56 Defense. S&P+ allows us to break down how Duke is doing in run and pass O and D, and we are as follows:
    Offense: #34 Rushing, #68 Passing.
    Defense: #54 Passing D, #86 Rushing D.

    Second, FEI. Duke now ranks 22nd in FEI, 40th in offense, and 12th in defense. Duke is also #2 OVERALL in the nation in special teams, per FEI. For those curious how special teams is rated so high, Duke is:
    10th in Field Goal Kicking efficiency
    2nd in kickoff return efficiency - (Thanks Devon!)
    7th in Punt efficiency (how well opponents do on our punts - thanks Will Monday!).

    Pretty damn good.

    Finally, the combined ranking, the F/+ rankings:
    Duke checks in at 26th overall now, 41st in Offense and 32nd on D (#2 again in Special Teams, but F+ special teams is basically just FEI).

    Overall, we've basically remained pat in the rankings through our bye and games vs Pitt. Not much of a surprise. Of note, our remaining opponents are ranked through these systems:

    Cuse: 71st F/+, 77th S&P+, 61st FEI
    VT: 30th F/+, 26th S&P+, 31st FEI
    UNC: 72nd F/+, 75th S&P+, 58th FEI
    Wake: 84th F/+*, 113rd S&P+, 86th FEI

    (Note the gap between 84th and 72nd is the same as the gap between 72nd and 49th).
    <devildeac> anyone playing drinking games by now?
    7:49:36<Wander> drink every qb run?
    7:49:38<loran16> umm, drink every time asack rushes?
    7:49:38<wolfybeard> @devildeac: drink when Asack runs a keeper
    7:49:39 PM<CB&B> any time zack runs, drink

    Carolina Delenda Est

  13. #13
    Updates:

    ACC Projections from Bill Connolly are up here: http://www.footballstudyhall.com/201...-florida-state

    The money picture:


    F/+ actually thinks Miami should be favorites over FSU, which is the problem. Still Duke is up to 56% to go 7-1.

    In addition, Saturday's predictions can be found here:http://www.footballstudyhall.com/201...ctions-week-11

    F/+ has Duke beating Cuse by either 15 or 26.3, depending upon what method you use. This should NOT be a close game per the numbers.
    <devildeac> anyone playing drinking games by now?
    7:49:36<Wander> drink every qb run?
    7:49:38<loran16> umm, drink every time asack rushes?
    7:49:38<wolfybeard> @devildeac: drink when Asack runs a keeper
    7:49:39 PM<CB&B> any time zack runs, drink

    Carolina Delenda Est

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by loran16 View Post
    Updates:

    ACC Projections from Bill Connolly are up here: http://www.footballstudyhall.com/201...-florida-state

    The money picture:


    F/+ actually thinks Miami should be favorites over FSU, which is the problem. Still Duke is up to 56% to go 7-1.

    In addition, Saturday's predictions can be found here:http://www.footballstudyhall.com/201...ctions-week-11

    F/+ has Duke beating Cuse by either 15 or 26.3, depending upon what method you use. This should NOT be a close game per the numbers.
    our chances of winning the division should be:

    p(7-1) + p(6-2)*(~p(miami 6-2)) == .56+ .36 * .58 = ~.77 = 77% chance of winning division
    1200. DDMF.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    our chances of winning the division should be:

    p(7-1) + p(6-2)*(~p(miami 6-2)) == .56+ .36 * .58 = ~.77 = 77% chance of winning division
    [PolySciMajor] It's only 50%. Either we will, or we won't. [\PolySciMajor]

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    F/+ has Duke beating Cuse by either 15 or 26.3, depending upon what method you use. This should NOT be a close game per the numbers.
    i love these analyses. only problem is that my most trusted number, the vegas line, has us as only a 3.5 point favorite - oh dear. i wonder why the huge divergence.


    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    our chances of winning the division should be:
    p(7-1) + p(6-2)*(~p(miami 6-2)) == .56+ .36 * .58 = ~.77 = 77% chance of winning division
    <seeking an honorary position with the grammar police>

    i believe your notation should reflect a NOT in front of the miami going 6-2.
    p(7-1) + p(6-2) * (1 - (~p(miami 6-2))) == .56 + .37 * (1 - .45) = ~.76
    and of course there is the weird 5-3 outcome where we actually win the division, which i'm guessing you assumed away as ~0. or do the tiebreakers already eliminate us there (as they do with a 6-2 tie that includes miami)?

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Partly Orlando, FL partly heard Sandpoint, ID
    Quote Originally Posted by bob blue devil View Post
    i love these analyses. only problem is that my most trusted number, the vegas line, has us as only a 3.5 point favorite - oh dear. i wonder why the huge divergence.




    <seeking an honorary position with the grammar police>

    i believe your notation should reflect a NOT in front of the miami going 6-2.
    p(7-1) + p(6-2) * (1 - (~p(miami 6-2))) == .56 + .37 * (1 - .45) = ~.76
    and of course there is the weird 5-3 outcome where we actually win the division, which i'm guessing you assumed away as ~0. or do the tiebreakers already eliminate us there (as they do with a 6-2 tie that includes miami)?
    ~p is not p(in mathematical logic terms). So either as it originally was, or 1- p(miami 6-2)... yours is 1 - p(miami not 6-2).

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by bob blue devil View Post
    <seeking an honorary position with the grammar police>

    i believe your notation should reflect a NOT in front of the miami going 6-2.
    p(7-1) + p(6-2) * (1 - (~p(miami 6-2))) == .56 + .37 * (1 - .45) = ~.76
    and of course there is the weird 5-3 outcome where we actually win the division, which i'm guessing you assumed away as ~0. or do the tiebreakers already eliminate us there (as they do with a 6-2 tie that includes miami)?
    Sorry! i minced symbol meanings

    ~p == "not p" or (1-p)

    ~.76 = "about .76"
    1200. DDMF.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by bob blue devil View Post
    and of course there is the weird 5-3 outcome where we actually win the division, which i'm guessing you assumed away as ~0. or do the tiebreakers already eliminate us there (as they do with a 6-2 tie that includes miami)?
    I think there's only one very specific scenario where we win at 5-3: we beat VT and UNC but lose to Wake and Syracuse, Miami loses to UVA and/or Pitt, and Georgia Tech goes 1-1 against NC State and Clemson. So, yeah, pretty close to 0%.

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Location
    Gates House (House H for you old timers)
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    I think there's only one very specific scenario where we win at 5-3: we beat VT and UNC but lose to Wake and Syracuse, Miami loses to UVA and/or Pitt, and Georgia Tech goes 1-1 against NC State and Clemson. So, yeah, pretty close to 0%.
    It doesn't have to be that specific. All that needs to happen for us to win at 5-3 would be for only us and GT to finish 5-3 (i.e. everyone else is 4-4 or worse). Since we beat GT head-to-head, we would win the division on the first tiebreaker. It wouldn't matter to whom those specific losses that got us and GT to 5-3 would be (although us losing to UNC would increase the chances of UNC also finishing 5-3).

    Anyway, the amount of losses necessary to teams that have shown they are decent if not better makes this whole point moot regardless. This ain't gonna happen.

Similar Threads

  1. Dork Polls: Men's Bball 2013-14 Edition
    By Troublemaker in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 196
    Last Post: 03-23-2014, 12:59 AM
  2. Geek Stats/Polls: Football Edition
    By loran16 in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 26
    Last Post: 11-27-2013, 09:32 AM
  3. Dork Polls
    By hurleyfor3 in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 143
    Last Post: 03-19-2010, 10:30 AM
  4. Man, them dork polls is crazy
    By hurleyfor3 in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 20
    Last Post: 01-25-2009, 01:28 PM
  5. Dork polls: #1 Sagarin, #3 Pomeroy
    By hurleyfor3 in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 7
    Last Post: 02-08-2008, 08:49 AM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •