FB Playoff selection watch

[Olympic Fan]

The first official poll by the selection committee comes out a week from tomorrow (Oct. 28) I thought to get ahead of the curve by surveying the situation as of today.

Right now, we have three unbeaten power five teams (with their ranks):

1. Mississippi State 6-0
2, Florida State 7-0
3. Ole Miss 7-0

Obviously, all three are in the four-team playoff at the moment, but the two Mississippi teams both have killer games coming up. While FSU's closing schedule is easier (not EASY -- at Louisville on a Thursday night could be tough), their biggest concern is keeping Jameis Winston eligible. Who knows what he'll do next?

There are 16 power five teams with one loss. Again, in order of their AP ranking:

4. Alabama 6-1
5. Auburn 5-1
6. Oregon 6-1
7. Notre Dame 6-1
8. Michigan State 6-1
9. Georgia 6-1
10. TCU 6-1
11. Kansas State 5-1
12. Baylor 6-1
13. Ohio State 5-1
14. Arizona State 5-1
15. Arizona 5-1
16. Nebraska 6-1
19. Utah 5-1
UNR Minnesota 6-1 (25th in the coaches poll)
UNR Duke 6-1

Obviously, Duke is the least respected one-loss team in the power five. In fact, six two loss teams are ranked ahead of Duke:

17. Oklahoma 5-2
20. Southern Cal 5-2
21. Clemson 5-2
22. West Virginia 5-2
24. LSU 6-2
25. UCLA 5-2

In addition, two teams that are not from a power conference are ranked:

18. East Carolina 5-1
23. Marshall 7-0

IMHO, neither of them is in the national playoff picture, but they are vying for the one major bowl spot reserved for a non-power five team.

As for the one loss teams, still tons of matchups between the unbeaten and the one loss teams. The picture will change dozens of times as the season plays out. But as of today (which means nothing) I think the final four are the three unbeaten and Alabama.

But Alabama still has to play Mississippi State, Auburn and maybe Georgia in the SEC title game. The two Mississippi schools play each other, plus Ole Miss has to play Auburn and MSU has 'Bama -- plus the possibility of Georgia in the title game. Georgia still has to play Auburn in the regular season. Notre Dame gets Arizona State, Louisville and Southern Cal.

Wow ... it's still wide open. For me, I think the dividing line is right behind Georgia. The top nine teams are, IMHO, all viable playoff candidates. After that, it gets rough. I think TCU needs a miracle.
Maybe one of the two Arizona schools could play their way into the picture. But I think the Big 12 teams are all in trouble and the only Big 10 team with a chance is Michigan State.

Not a lot of good matchups this weekend. Only two matchups of ranked teams --USC at Utah and Ole Miss at LSU (that IS a good one).

A few of the other top contenders face minor danger on the road -- Oregon at Cal, Arizona at Washington State, Arizona State at Washington, Bama at Tennessee.

A couple more have to stay awake at home -- Michigan State vs. Michigan and Auburn vs. South Carolina.

But I don't think the unbeaten/one loss list changes much after this weekend. We'll revisit it after next Saturday.

[sagegrouse]

The first official poll by the selection committee comes out a week from tomorrow (Oct. 28) I thought to get ahead of the curve by surveying the situation as of today.

Right now, we have three unbeaten power five teams (with their ranks):

1. Mississippi State 6-0
2, Florida State 7-0
3. Ole Miss 7-0

Obviously, all three are in the four-team playoff at the moment, but the two Mississippi teams both have killer games coming up. While FSU's closing schedule is easier (not EASY -- at Louisville on a Thursday night could be tough), their biggest concern is keeping Jameis Winston eligible. Who knows what he'll do next?

There are 16 power five teams with one loss. Again, in order of their AP ranking:

4. Alabama 6-1
5. Auburn 5-1
6. Oregon 6-1
7. Notre Dame 6-1
8. Michigan State 6-1
9. Georgia 6-1
10. TCU 6-1
11. Kansas State 5-1
12. Baylor 6-1
13. Ohio State 5-1
14. Arizona State 5-1
15. Arizona 5-1
16. Nebraska 6-1
19. Utah 5-1
UNR Minnesota 6-1 (25th in the coaches poll)
UNR Duke 6-1

I expect to see some "regression toward the mean" for the two Mississippi schools -- Ole Miss lost five games a year ago, and State lost six. If each loses two games or more, it is likely that Bama (or Auburn) will represent the SEC West against, I guess, Georgia, which still has to play Auburn. In fact, it may be difficult to fill out a CFP bracket with four teams with one loss or fewer.

[OldPhiKap]

The first official poll by the selection committee comes out a week from tomorrow (Oct. 28) I thought to get ahead of the curve by surveying the situation as of today.

Right now, we have three unbeaten power five teams (with their ranks):

1. Mississippi State 6-0
2, Florida State 7-0
3. Ole Miss 7-0

Obviously, all three are in the four-team playoff at the moment, but the two Mississippi teams both have killer games coming up. While FSU's closing schedule is easier (not EASY -- at Louisville on a Thursday night could be tough), their biggest concern is keeping Jameis Winston eligible. Who knows what he'll do next?

There are 16 power five teams with one loss. Again, in order of their AP ranking:

4. Alabama 6-1
5. Auburn 5-1
6. Oregon 6-1
7. Notre Dame 6-1
8. Michigan State 6-1
9. Georgia 6-1
10. TCU 6-1
11. Kansas State 5-1
12. Baylor 6-1
13. Ohio State 5-1
14. Arizona State 5-1
15. Arizona 5-1
16. Nebraska 6-1
19. Utah 5-1
UNR Minnesota 6-1 (25th in the coaches poll)
UNR Duke 6-1

Obviously, Duke is the least respected one-loss team in the power five. In fact, six two loss teams are ranked ahead of Duke:

17. Oklahoma 5-2
20. Southern Cal 5-2
21. Clemson 5-2
22. West Virginia 5-2
24. LSU 6-2
25. UCLA 5-2

In addition, two teams that are not from a power conference are ranked:

18. East Carolina 5-1
23. Marshall 7-0

IMHO, neither of them is in the national playoff picture, but they are vying for the one major bowl spot reserved for a non-power five team.

As for the one loss teams, still tons of matchups between the unbeaten and the one loss teams. The picture will change dozens of times as the season plays out. But as of today (which means nothing) I think the final four are the three unbeaten and Alabama.

But Alabama still has to play Mississippi State, Auburn and maybe Georgia in the SEC title game. The two Mississippi schools play each other, plus Ole Miss has to play Auburn and MSU has 'Bama -- plus the possibility of Georgia in the title game. Georgia still has to play Auburn in the regular season. Notre Dame gets Arizona State, Louisville and Southern Cal.

Wow ... it's still wide open. For me, I think the dividing line is right behind Georgia. The top nine teams are, IMHO, all viable playoff candidates. After that, it gets rough. I think TCU needs a miracle.
Maybe one of the two Arizona schools could play their way into the picture. But I think the Big 12 teams are all in trouble and the only Big 10 team with a chance is Michigan State.

Not a lot of good matchups this weekend. Only two matchups of ranked teams --USC at Utah and Ole Miss at LSU (that IS a good one).

A few of the other top contenders face minor danger on the road -- Oregon at Cal, Arizona at Washington State, Arizona State at Washington, Bama at Tennessee.

A couple more have to stay awake at home -- Michigan State vs. Michigan and Auburn vs. South Carolina.

But I don't think the unbeaten/one loss list changes much after this weekend. We'll revisit it after next Saturday.

Excellent break-down.

The SEC is a demolition derby; there are two or maybe three teams up there at the top who will be left out but are probably on par with whomever else is selected.

[jtheall]

He's having difficulties following recent knee replacement and back surgeries, so now the committee is down to 12 members. In the event of a tie, the 12 will continue discussions and re-vote until someone makes a change.

Manning was the conference representative of the Mountain West and the ACC, so the committee has split his duties to Mike Tranghese (former Big East commissioner) for the Mountain West and Steve Weiberg (former USA TODAY reporter) for the ACC. It will be interesting to see if this has any implications on how the committee views and selects teams from both of these conferences.

I read something a few weeks ago about the football-watching habits of each committee member. It seemed like Manning watched the fewest amount of games amongst them, which was surprising to me. From that articles, he's quoted as saying that he "would be guilty if he wasn't watching 5 or 6 games a week". This was actually a good read: http://www.foxsports.com/college-foo...al-four-100714

Full story: http://espn.go.com/college-football/...yoff-committee

[Wander]

Good topic, I agree with a lot, but I bet Marshall's going to be in the discussion if they finish undefeated.

1. There's a very realistic chance (it's my pick for what will actually happen) that Marshall is the only undefeated team at the end of the season.
2. They've beaten 5 out of 7 opponents by at least 30 points, and the other 2 they beat by 25 and 15 points.
3. People are going to say "Isn't this why we expanded the championship in the first place?"

I think all reasonable people can agree that their strength of schedule is far below the other playoff contenders. But I promise you, if (1) happens, this discussion is coming (but I don't think the committee will actually put them in).

TCU has a great chance. The Big 12 is a strong conference, there's a sort-of-consensus that they're the best team in it, they have a pretty good non-conference win against Minnesota, and their schedule is relatively favorable. In fact I almost guarantee they'll get in if they don't lose again.

Anyway, as you say, it's still pretty early and the thing is wide open. My too early prediction-that-will-almost-certainly-be-wrong is: Alabama, TCU, Georgia, Arizona (I'd take Oregon for that last one if I didn't now live in AZ)

Of course, the whole caveat to all of this is that none of us actually know how the committee is going to pick teams since it's the first year.

[Bob Green]

Good topic, I agree with a lot, but I bet Marshall's going to be in the discussion if they finish undefeated.

1. There's a very realistic chance (it's my pick for what will actually happen) that Marshall is the only undefeated team at the end of the season.
2. They've beaten 5 out of 7 opponents by at least 30 points, and the other 2 they beat by 25 and 15 points.
3. People are going to say "Isn't this why we expanded the championship in the first place?"

If Marshall finishes the season undefeated, people are going to say, "The College Football Playoff needs to include eight teams."

[-jk]

If Marshall finishes the season undefeated, people are going to say, "The College Football Playoff needs to include eight teams."

I think that's inevitable regardless. Too much money on the table.

-jk

[brevity]

In addition, two teams that are not from a power conference are ranked:

18. East Carolina 5-1
23. Marshall 7-0

IMHO, neither of them is in the national playoff picture, but they are vying for the one major bowl spot reserved for a non-power five team.

(Rant follows. It is not directed at Olympic Fan, who is making an honest assessment of a corrupt situation.)

It has been my belief for years that the college football postseason is so unfair that it actually sets the human race back. But for some reason I remain surprised at its utter contempt for players from non-power conferences that did everything its schedule asked of them and are ignored in favor of teams that did not do everything their schedule asked for them. Were I a person unafraid of consequences, I would take a branding iron to each Alabama player's forehead that says "Ole Miss' b*tch," because that's who they are. And deep down, in their souls, they know it.

It was my impression that the college football playoff, even a four-team one, would address this problem. And right now, like it or not, Marshall is the best reason to have a playoff at all. Here's why. Let's say that Marshall loses a game. Florida State and one Mississippi school stay undefeated. Having a BCS Championship game would be sufficient. Let's say the SEC cannibalizes itself and no team goes undefeated. Well, then Florida State (still undefeated) could just play the best one-loss team in a BCS Championship game rather than 2 one-loss teams in a semifinal and final. Now let's say no team goes undefeated. Picking 4 one-loss teams (or maybe 3 one-loss teams and a two-loss team) is more inclusive than a BCS Championship Game, but is probably not more fair and is certainly not more necessary. And that's the key word here: each of these examples shows a lack of necessity in having a playoff instead of just a single championship game.

The primary necessity of having a college football playoff -- aside from the involved parties needing more money -- is to account for a third undefeated team. Marshall is that third undefeated team. (The Mississippi schools count as one undefeated team because they still have to face each other.) If the committee ignores Marshall, then what was the point of all this?

ETA: I see Wander has made a similar point, with more brevity and less violence. But I stand by my statement; there is not nearly enough scalding forehead injury in college football.

[Duvall]

(Rant follows. It is not directed at Olympic Fan, who is making an honest assessment of a corrupt situation.)

It has been my belief for years that the college football postseason is so unfair that it actually sets the human race back. But for some reason I remain surprised at its utter contempt for players from non-power conferences that did everything its schedule asked of them and are ignored in favor of teams that did not do everything their schedule asked for them. Were I a person unafraid of consequences, I would take a branding iron to each Alabama player's forehead that says "Ole Miss' b*tch," because that's who they are. And deep down, in their souls, they know it.

It was my impression that the college football playoff, even a four-team one, would address this problem. And right now, like it or not, Marshall is the best reason to have a playoff at all. Here's why. Let's say that Marshall loses a game. Florida State and one Mississippi school stay undefeated. Having a BCS Championship game would be sufficient. Let's say the SEC cannibalizes itself and no team goes undefeated. Well, then Florida State (still undefeated) could just play the best one-loss team in a BCS Championship game rather than 2 one-loss teams in a semifinal and final. Now let's say no team goes undefeated. Picking 4 one-loss teams (or maybe 3 one-loss teams and a two-loss team) is more inclusive than a BCS Championship Game, but is probably not more fair and is certainly not more necessary. And that's the key word here: each of these examples shows a lack of necessity in having a playoff instead of just a single championship game.

The primary necessity of having a college football playoff -- aside from the involved parties needing more money -- is to account for a third undefeated team. Marshall is that third undefeated team. (The Mississippi schools count as one undefeated team because they still have to face each other.) If the committee ignores Marshall, then what was the point of all this?

Wait, was that a rhetorical question? Either way.

ETA: I see Wander has made a similar point, with more brevity and less violence. But I stand by my statement; there is not nearly enough scalding forehead injury in college football.

You don't see too many people these days arguing that there aren't *enough* head injuries in football.

[Wander]

ETA: I see Wander has made a similar point, with more brevity and less violence. But I stand by my statement; there is not nearly enough scalding forehead injury in college football.

This is now a thread-derail, but you're right, except you should direct your scalding forehead injuries at the dbag bowl reps who show up to games and not to kids at Alabama. The bowls are the most corrupt thing in the entire sports world, and we live in a sports world where Roger Goodell and FIFA exist. The bowls should be eliminated from existence, not awkwardly integrated into the playoff. One day we'll have a proper 16 team playoff with the higher seeds getting home field advantage until the neutral title game (maybe at the Rose Bowl, the only bowl with any sort of actual tradition that people give a crap about). Maybe not for another 40 years, but one day...

[Olympic Fan]

I strongly disagree with those arguing for Marshall's inclusion in the four-team playoff -- even if they are the only undefeated team in college football.

There HAS to be a consideration of strength of schedule. Look, I was on the side of the Boise State's and Utahs in years when they were left out -- but aside from the fact that they played in much stronger conferences (the WAC and Mountain West are MUCH stronger than the current Conference USA). Plus, those teams always had significant wins in the rare chances they got OOC games with powers --

Marshall has nothing like that. The best team on their schedule is Middle Tennessee State ... currently 5-3. Marshall's seven wins are over:

1-7 Miami of Ohio
0-7 Rhode Island
4-4 Ohio
4-3 Akron
3-4 Old Dominion
5-3 Middle Tennessee
3-5 Florida International

Still to play, they get:
3-4 Florida Atlantic
3-4 Southern Miss
3-3 Rice
3-4 UAB
3-4 Western Kentucky

Duke has gotten tons of cr*p -- much of it deserved -- for its lousy schedule. But Duke's schedule is 10 times tougher than what Marshall faces.

I don't know how Duke would fare in a head-to-head with Marshall on a neutral field, but I would bet big money that Duke would go 12-0 against Marshall's schedule. So would Alabama, Auburn, Oregon and every power five one-loss team.

It's not a perfect system and there are going to be years when a non-power five team is going to deserve consideration. Heck, if ECU had won at South Carolina, I'd give them consideration. But this isn't the year and Marshall isn't the team.

PS If you are going to let Marshall in without playing anybody, then watch non-conference schedules go to hell. Why play anybody if SOS isn't a factor in selection. Notre Dame can play 12 non power fove teams and coast into the playoffs every year.

[Duvall]

I strongly disagree with those arguing for Marshall's inclusion in the four-team playoff -- even if they are the only undefeated team in college football.

There HAS to be a consideration of strength of schedule.

There doesn't *have* to be a consideration of strength of schedule, at least for qualifying for the postseason. Is there another team sport in which a team can win all its games and not qualify to compete for a championship, anywhere on the planet? If a four-team playoff isn't big enough to accommodate every unbeaten team and the best title contenders, then expand the playoff.

[JetpackJesus]

PS If you are going to let Marshall in without playing anybody, then watch non-conference schedules go to hell. Why play anybody if SOS isn't a factor in selection. Notre Dame can play 12 non power fove teams and coast into the playoffs every year.

Fortunately, ND is obligated to play 5 ACC teams per season for the next 12ish years so they won't be able to totally game the system for awhile.

[Wander]

PS If you are going to let Marshall in without playing anybody, then watch non-conference schedules go to hell. Why play anybody if SOS isn't a factor in selection. Notre Dame can play 12 non power fove teams and coast into the playoffs every year.

1. Last year, Auburn made it into the title game playing a non-conference schedule of Washington State, Florida Atlantic, Arkansas State, and Western Carolina all at home. We already live in this world.
2. If you let all conference champions in the playoff field - you know, what every single other team sport in existence does - then teams won't be afraid to schedule big non-conference games.

The argument - at least from me, and I suspect a lot of others here - isn't that letting 12-0 Marshall in over 10-2 Auburn or whoever is the right decision. I agree with you that Marshall is probably not going to get in no matter what. The argument is that having to make the choice in the first place because you have an otherwise awesome sport held hostage by a bunch of corrupt bowl dbags that force a laughably small "playoff" is stupid.

[OldPhiKap]

1. Last year, Auburn made it into the title game playing a non-conference schedule of Washington State, Florida Atlantic, Arkansas State, and Western Carolina all at home. We already live in this world.
2. If you let all conference champions in the playoff field - you know, what every single other team sport in existence does - then teams won't be afraid to schedule big non-conference games.

The argument - at least from me, and I suspect a lot of others here - isn't that letting 12-0 Marshall in over 10-2 Auburn or whoever is the right decision. I agree with you that Marshall is probably not going to get in no matter what. The argument is that having to make the choice in the first place because you have an otherwise awesome sport held hostage by a bunch of corrupt bowl dbags that force a laughably small "playoff" is stupid.

Last year, Auburn played at LSU, at Texas A&M, Georgia, Alabama, and a slate of other SEC teams. I think most SEC teams get a pass when it comes to non-conference games, many of their schedules are tougher than any ACC school this year (whether in-conference or OOC). Certainly tougher than Marshall's schedule.

And football takes too much recovery time (and causes too many injuries) for a sweet 16 or more.

[Wander]

And football takes too much recovery time (and causes too many injuries) for a sweet 16 or more.

Sorry dude, this makes no sense. The NFL has a 12 team playoff, Division 1-AA has a 24 team playoff, Division 2 has a 12 team playoff, and Division 3 has a 16 team playoff. Division 1-A is obviously absolutely capable of handling a 12-16 playoff. And anyway, I'd be reducing the number of games and therefore injuries overall, since I'd be getting rid of lots of pieces of junk like the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl (yes, that's a real one).

[Duvall]

Sorry dude, this makes no sense. The NFL has a 12 team playoff, Division 1-AA has a 24 team playoff, Division 2 has a 12 team playoff, and Division 3 has a 16 team playoff. Division 1-A is obviously absolutely capable of handling a 12-16 playoff. And anyway, I'd be reducing the number of games and therefore injuries overall, since I'd be getting rid of lots of pieces of junk like the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl (yes, that's a real one).

Yeah, Towson played 16 games last year with a 63-scholarship limit. Alabama can't do the same?

[Reilly]

... Division 3 has a 16 team playoff ...

D3 was 32 teams last year:

http://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/football/d3

... but don't they play a 10-game regular season?

[OldPhiKap]

Sorry dude, this makes no sense. The NFL has a 12 team playoff, Division 1-AA has a 24 team playoff, Division 2 has a 12 team playoff, and Division 3 has a 16 team playoff. Division 1-A is obviously absolutely capable of handling a 12-16 playoff. And anyway, I'd be reducing the number of games and therefore injuries overall, since I'd be getting rid of lots of pieces of junk like the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl (yes, that's a real one).

NFL players get paid to take those risks. And lower divisions play fewer regular season games; there's too much money in the current D-1 (or whatever we're calling it this year) to drop regular season games.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see it. I would have 8 teams play on NYE; the four winners play the next week; and then the two finalists play on Super Bowl Saturday. But that's a damn long season with plenty of risk for an injury that prevents a player from ever making the NFL -- more money for the NCAA and the school, but the player gets screwed.

Yeah, Towson played 16 games last year with a 63-scholarship limit. Alabama can't do the same?

Alabama will play 12 regular season games, a conference championship game if they qualify; and two bowl games if they make the playoffs. So that's 15. As for scholarship limits, I would bet that Alabama plays less that 63 players in a season with the number of redshirts they use.

D3 was 32 teams last year:

http://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/football/d3

... but don't they play a 10-game regular season?

I think so, which would be at most 15 games -- same as whoever wins the NC this year (assuming they also play in their conference championship; ND would be the obvious possible exception here).

[Wander]

D3 was 32 teams last year:

Oops. Good catch.

Anyway. Now that we've completely derailed the thread. This is, to me, the most fun season since 2007. There's such a great mix of good teams with traditional powers (Alabama, FSU), new powers (Ole Miss, Duke), and non-BCS teams (East Carolina, Marshall). You've also got a great geographic mix since the best conferences are SEC, Pac-12, and Big 12. Good games between powerhouses (FSU-ND), good upsets (WVU-Baylor), good dramatic finishes (Arizona-Cal), and so on. I think we also have the best division in the history of the sport. Only thing we're really missing is an individual transcendent player like Ndamukong Suh or Tim Tebow or Vince Young.