Playoff Baseball

[throatybeard]

Speaking of the Royals.

People in StL are apparently mostly over the Denkinger thing. Everyone and their dog is actively rooting for the Royals to make the World Series. Like, with good nature, not out of revenge. We're all like, wheee, wouldn't this be fun. I've never seen anything quite like it. Apparently the number of years it takes to get over something is 29.

Me, I'm rooting for the Saint Louis Browns over the Royals, but that's because I have an outsized notion of the kinship between this city and the one in Maryland. I-70 Series could mean multiple things...

[throatybeard]

Anybody but me ever notice that mustacheless Mattingly totally looks like Quentin Tarantino?

[throatybeard]

If the Dodgers lose tonight and face elimination Tuesday, do you come back with Kershaw on three days rest or save him for a potential game 5?

That is a really good question, actually. I think the Birdinals are gonna throw Shelby Miller tomorrow. Wacha has been sat, which if you think about last year, it's kind of shocking, but if you think about this year, it's totally not. And the Cardinals can't hit any left-handed pitcher alive...except Kershaw, somehow. It's insane. It's kind of like if a team couldn't hit Schlubby Joe in 1965, but jumped all over Koufax.

I like how I was so lazy that I didn't look up an actual LHP in in 1965 and made up a name, instead.

edit:

FS1 announcers seem to indicate the LAD are gonna bring back Kershaw on short rest tomorrow against Shelby.

This kind of gets back into the whole Waino debate. People didn't want to "waste" him against Clayton Kerpow, presumed invulnerable, until he wasn't. Waino's now up for game five, if need be, presumably against Greinke. This looks great for the Cardinals if they win tomorrow and save Waino for G1 of the NLCS. It looks terrible if they burn Waino in G5 and somehow advance to the NLCS, although Lance Lynn is really undervalued.

May you live in interesting times. Trevor Rosenthal alone has almost ended my life like fifteen times in the last six months, including tonight.

[mr. synellinden]

That is a really good question, actually.

edit:

FS1 announcers seem to indicate the LAD are gonna bring back Kershaw on short rest tomorrow against Shelby.

Yep, during the game they interviewed Mattingly and he said Kershaw is pitching Game 4. I understand the temptation, and while I didn't love the idea of doing this at first, the Dodgers really don't have another viable option for an elimination game. I'm assuming Mattingly thinks a short-rested Kershaw is better than anyone else he's got -- and he's probably right -- and with his team on the brink he's not going to leave Kershaw on the bench. Should be interesting.

[YmoBeThere]

Yep, during the game they interviewed Mattingly and he said Kershaw is pitching Game 4. I understand the temptation, and while I didn't love the idea of doing this at first, the Dodgers really don't have another viable option for an elimination game. I'm assuming Mattingly thinks a short-rested Kershaw is better than anyone else he's got -- and he's probably right -- and with his team on the brink he's not going to leave Kershaw on the bench. Should be interesting.

I recall there being a relatively famous quote about not knowing/understanding history and being doomed to repeat it.

[Mal]

I recall there being a relatively famous quote about not knowing/understanding history and being doomed to repeat it.

I'm not sure I follow. Kershaw's only previous playoff experience on 3 days rest was a win with 6 IP and no earned runs, last year in the NLDS against the Braves. So if we're talking history repeating itself, in that respect Mattingly's got the right idea.

I'm not sure what it is that the Cardinals do against Kershaw that's worked so well, although it's worth noting that in Game 2 of the NLCS last year, he pitched very well against them (6IP, 2H, 1 ER) but still got saddled with a loss. I'm sure the thinking is not "He just can't pitch against the Cards in the playoffs so we can't expect different this time." It's probably "He just had one of the most dominant seasons a pitcher's had in the last decade, he's due to shut someone down in the playoffs." And who else are you gonna go with? It might be different if Beckett were there and you were deciding between him (or Ryu) and Kershaw, but I don't think anyone's justified in feeling much confidence with Dan Haren in an elimination game on the road.

[Olympic Fan]

Congrats to the Cards ... like the Giants, a great postseason team these days.

As for fame four today, amazing to watch Clayton Kershaw blow up again late.

I wonder what this is doing to his legacy. He's been the best regular season pitcher in baseball over the last four years. But he's also been a terrible postseason pitcher. It's not just one game or one series -- for his career he's made 11 postseason starts and won once. He's lost five times, including his last four starts in a row against the Cardinals. His postseason ERA is well over 5 runs a game.

What are we to make of that?

[YmoBeThere]

There are grumblings about one Donnie Baseball...and not just mine.

[Duvall]

-- for his career he's made 11 postseason starts

...

What are we to make of that?

Not a thing.

[weezie]

There are grumblings about one Donnie Baseball...and not just mine.

Hey, would you like a flat affect, slightly used, clueless nitwit from Detroit or are you happy with your older model?

[kmspeaks]

Speaking of the Royals.

People in StL are apparently mostly over the Denkinger thing. Everyone and their dog is actively rooting for the Royals to make the World Series. Like, with good nature, not out of revenge. We're all like, wheee, wouldn't this be fun. I've never seen anything quite like it. Apparently the number of years it takes to get over something is 29.

Me, I'm rooting for the Saint Louis Browns over the Royals, but that's because I have an outsized notion of the kinship between this city and the one in Maryland. I-70 Series could mean multiple things...

So roughly 7 years from now, Kentucky fans won't hate Christian Laettner??

[YmoBeThere]

Hey, would you like a flat affect, slightly used, clueless nitwit from Detroit or are you happy with your older model?

The older model got a new 3 year contract to begin the season, so it might take another year of losing to the Cards in the playoffs before minds start to change. And then another year and perhaps losing to the Giants in the playoffs before the tide will fully turn. I understand the small sample size, etc. that causes one to err on the side of inaction. But what I saw when I lived in Cincinnati (with the Reds and to a lesser extent the Bengals) was consistent unpreparedness in the playoffs and key situations/games. The situation doesn't appear as hopeless with the Dodgers, we can look at the win in the NLDS against the Braves.

[sagegrouse]

Doesn't Buster Posey look like the missing middle brother in the Cleaver family, between Wally and Beaver?

[JBDuke]

Harper with his third towering home run in four post-season games. This one into McCovey Cove. Holy cow!

[Duvall]

Well this just got super-weird.

[YmoBeThere]

Well this just got super-weird.

I just had a lot of time freed up on my calendar.

[JBDuke]

I just had a lot of time freed up on my calendar.

Mine, too. When your veteran #3 and #4 hitters go a combined 2-35 in four games, you're gonna lose. The Nats lost 3 games by one run each. The pitching, for the most part, kept them in it, but the lack of hitting made each game close, putting pressure on the Nats to play solid defense and take advantage of any small opportunities they could. Too often, they squandered their opportunities and failed to take advantage of Giant miscues. Interestingly, you'd think that those were largely rookie mistakes, but it was the veteran hitters that failed to show up - Span, Werth, LaRoche, and Ramos. The young guns - Rendon and Harper - carried the offense, such as it was.

[mkirsh]

This question will carry some bias coming from a disappointed Nats fan, but after watching 3 of the 4 teams with the best regular season records in baseball fail to advance, is the Divisional Series working? I think it's broken for several reasons:

5 day layoff for higher seeded teams. I get the one game playoff thing. Originally against it as I'm a believer in valuing regular season accomplishments, those win-or-go-home games are fun as a fan to watch. I also understand that the play-in teams should be at a huge disadvantage heading into the DS as they have to burn their ace. However, using up a starter only matters if the series gets to game 5, and it seems that the 5 day break for one team - which never happens during the season - may create rust or disrupt timing. Now I'm not saying that the layoff is why the Nats lost instead the way Williams used the bullpen, or the way Bochy managed the Giants, or Giants pitchers rising to the occasion, or their playoff experience giving them the edge, or the Nats offense just not showing up, or hundreds of other reasons. But as a fan having to wonder how the layoff might have contributed is fairly unsatisfying and seems to be something that could be resolved.

5 game series instead of 7. Can't understand why this still exists. Of the four major sports, baseball has the most game-to-game variability. The best teams in baseball win right around 100 games, which is about 60% of their games. In the NFL the best teams go 12-4 or 13-3 (75-80%), NBA winners get to around 60 wins (73%), and NHL ends up around 75% excluding ties. So the best teams lose more frequently in baseball, making a short series even more susceptible to an upset. I imagine some point MLB will expand these to best of 7 just for the 8 additional revenue opportunities, but I also think it will reward the teams that assemble the best regular season records as well.

2-2-1 Format. Maybe I'm alone on this one, but if I were manager of the Nats/Dodgers/Angels and I could pick any format for a 5 game series, I would probably take 2 road followed by 3 home. I think with the 2-2-1 format the pressure is actually on the higher seeded team to win the first 2 at home. I think it is easier to start on the road with the mentality of taking 1 of 2 putting you in control of the series. Combined with the short series I think this format puts added pressure on the favored teams instead of rewarding them.

So my fix would be to expand to best of 7, cut the time around the one-game playoffs (no travel day before/after and have both games on the same day), and probably not tinker with starting 2 on the road in the seven game series although I do think there is something interesting there.

[sagegrouse]

You heard it here first: the Nationals beat the Giants 2-0, except for a few details (courtesy of Thomas Boswell of the WaPo):

Second Inning:

• Failing to field a two-hopper back to the mound.
• Failing to get even one out on a bunt by the pitcher.
• Walking a batter with the bases loaded.

Seventh Inning:

• Walking the bases loaded.
• Throwing a wild pitch to allow the winning run to score.
• Throwing another wild pitch, but getting a favorable ruling at the plate to stop another run from scoring.

Basically, just awful baseball.

BTW I don't think Bryce Harper is gonna be relegated to the sixth spot in the batting order next year. Harper and Rendon were the only offensive forces for the Nationals, who -- with any decent amount of offense -- would have won the series. The Nats pitchers gave up only six earned runs in the series, and that includes counting the Giants last score as an earned run: single, single, walk, WP. intentional walk/caught stealing at home.

[JBDuke]

...

BTW I don't think Bryce Harper is gonna be relegated to the sixth spot in the batting order next year. Harper and Rendon were the only offensive forces for the Nationals, who -- with any decent amount of offense -- would have won the series. The Nats pitchers gave up only six earned runs in the series, and that includes counting the Giants last score as an earned run: single, single, walk, WP. intentional walk/caught stealing at home.

I think you're right about Harper next year. When healthy this season, Harper was a monster. That hand injury really hampered his ability to be productive at the plate through the heart of the season. I hope that next year he can stay healthy and in the lineup all year long. If he does, he could have a heck of a year - like batting .290-.300, 30 HRs, 100 RBIs.

As for next year's lineup, I suspect Adam LaRoche is gone. I like his steady defense at first base, and when he's hot, he can almost carry a team on offense. But he's getting older, his defense isn't as elite as it used to be, he's hot and cold at the plate, so you can't count on him, and the Nats need a place to put Zimmerman. That makes your top 5 Span, Rendon, Werth, Harper, Zimmerman. You follow with Desmond, Ramos, 2B, and the pitcher. They've got to figure out their second baseman. Cabrera's been a good fit, but he's a rental, and I don't know if the Nats will pay to keep him around. I'm not sold on Espinosa as a long term solution, although his defense is very good. IMO, he makes a better bench player at this stage. His L/R splits are so bad, I wonder if he ought to give up on switch hitting and just bat righty all the time.