Recruiting ranking, experience, and playing time at Duke

[SupaDave]

You think that rule will come in that quickly and bind 2014-15 freshmen?

It's big on Silver's to do list. Before this Sterling mess - it was already on the table for immediate attention.

http://www.nba.com/2014/news/03/24/a...ba-players.ap/

[NSDukeFan]

It's big on Silver's to do list. Before this Sterling mess - it was already on the table for immediate attention.

http://www.nba.com/2014/news/03/24/a...ba-players.ap/

wouldn't be the worst year to have the top Recruiting class.

[ice-9]

I've been wondering how likely it is that Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow are one-and-done. So I looked over the RSCI since the one-and-done rule has been in place, and this is what I saw:

Tyus Jones, #7

Guys in the #7 to #11 range from 2006 to 2013: 40
One-and-dones in the #7 to #10 range from 2006 to 2013: 10 (Noah Vonleh #8, James Young #9, Archie Goodwin #10, Marquis Teague #7, Enes Kanter #7, Lance Stephenson #8, Tiny Gallon #10, BJ Mullens #8, Jerryd Bayless #7, JJ Hickson #8)

Justise Winslow, #13

Guys in the #12 to #16 range from 2006 to 2013: 40
One-and-dones in the #12 to #16 range from 2006 to 2013: 9 (Joel Embiid #16, Ricardo Ledo #13, Cory Joseph #13, Fab Melo #14, Kosto Koufos #12, DeAndre Jordan #13, Anthony Randolph #15, Javaris Crittenton #12, Daequan Cook #13)

Just for completeness sake:

Guys in the #17 to #25 range from 2006 to 2013: 72
One-and-dones in the #17 to #21 range from 2006 to 2013: 4 (Tyler Ennis #23, Tony Wroten #18, Daniel Orton #19, Mike Conley #21)

It's possible I missed one or two, but for the moment let's assume I didn't.


So, based on history it looks like there's around a 1 in 4 chance (25%) that each of Tyus and Justise might leave school after one season. The chance of one of the two going pro after one season would appear to be almost 42%. The chance of both coming out would be around 5.6%, and the chance of both staying in school for their sophomore year would be about 58%.

Looking at it a bit closer, four of the ten in the first group went to Kentucky, a program that encourages one-and-dones, and five of the nine in the second group were big men. Since our two guys are neither going to Kentucky nor big men, I think that improves the odds at least a little bit in Duke fans' favor.

We can hope, anyway.

Interesting analysis Kedsy. Wouldn't the numbers depend on position? I'd guess for example that there fewer point guards become OADs, versus say centers.

[lotusland]

Interesting analysis Kedsy. Wouldn't the numbers depend on position? I'd guess for example that there fewer point guards become OADs, versus say centers.

Maybe so but it's probably because great PGs with NBA size and speed are rare. I imagine PG is the second most coveted position. Off hand I I think about Wall and Kyrie. Those guys just don't come round that often. Talented SGs and wing players are ubiquitous in comparison.

[Saratoga2]

This analysis deserves to be entered along with the top three under decorum. A classic.

[Kedsy]

Interesting analysis Kedsy. Wouldn't the numbers depend on position? I'd guess for example that there fewer point guards become OADs, versus say centers.

Maybe so but it's probably because great PGs with NBA size and speed are rare. I imagine PG is the second most coveted position. Off hand I I think about Wall and Kyrie. Those guys just don't come round that often. Talented SGs and wing players are ubiquitous in comparison.

Well, clearly big men are the most numerous on the #12 to #16 list. And top-top shelf PGs (like Wall and Kyrie) are generally rated top 5 coming out of high school.

Here's a list of all players in the #5 to #11 range (from 2006 to 2013) and listed by RSCI as PGs:

One-and-dones: D Rose #5, J Selby #6, M Teague #7
Non-OADs: T Lawson #5, N Calathes #11, A Gaddy #11, A Harrison #5, K Hill #11

That's 3 out of 8 OADs, or 37.5%, which is a little higher than the percentage of all #5 to #11 who were OADs (33.9%), but in the same ballpark.

On the other hand, if you look at the OADs in this group, Selby probably made a mistake and if Teague had been anywhere other than Kentucky he would probably have stayed an extra year. No matter how you examine the data, I think the odds of Tyus Jones being one-and-done should be pegged somewhere between 25% and 50%.

[Newton_14]

Really great post Kedsy. Post of the year by a large margin.

One small thing to take away from this, is if you are a marginal talent, no matter how highly overranked, you better be 1. Tough and 2. A darn good defender. One of the consistent patterns with kids over the years who everyone (myself included) wanted to see them get more PT to show what they can do, but they never really got the PT we wanted to see is this: They were either not tough, too meek, too laid back, etc, or not good enough on the defensive end.

I think a few of them maybe could have developed into rotation worthy players at different schools, but I do think the vast majority were what they were, aka, just not quite good enough to be a mainstay rotation player at a BCS Level school.

Your formula works really well and is a great predictor. It for sure showed that Casey was overrated, which was not his fault, and say what you will, but the kid helped us win a title by being a great "dance partner" for Who's Your Daddy Battier! One of my fondest memories ever will be the day they smoked UNC in Chapel Hill in the first game after losing Boozer to the broken foot. Casey played the role he was asked to play beautifully during that 10 game winning streak that led to the ACC Tourney and National Title's, starting at center in all 10 games.

But again, really great research and work. Something we can use for years to come I think. No matter what "big changes" K has in store, I would bet a lot of money it will not change which kids he decides to play a lot and which kids he doesn't.

[Kedsy]

Well, the final 2015 RSCI is out, and thus we can attempt to apply the "system" I proposed last season that seems to have heavy predictive power for Duke's rotation.

This coming season would seem to be an interesting test of the system. Based on the combination of RSCI and experience that I laid out in the first post of this thread, the predicted rotation will be:

Predicted perimeter rotation: Brandon Ingram (1.0), Derryck Thornton (2.0), Matt Jones (2.0), Grayson Allen (2.5)
Predicted interior rotation: Amile Jefferson (1.5), Chase Jeter (2.0), Marshall Plumlee (2.5)

Other perimeter players: Luke Kennard (3.0), Justin Robinson (4.0)
Other interior players: Sean Obi (3.0), Antonio Vrankovic (4.0)


I say this could be a big test because the consensus opinion around here seems to have Luke Kennard in the rotation playing somewhat heavy minutes, seems to feel Sean Obi will play solid rotation minutes, and seems to think Chase Jeter probably isn't ready. In fact, if I was forced to stand by a personal opinion, I'd probably suggest an 8-man rotation, with Luke and Sean in and Chase out. I might also suggest that Coach K has appeared to diverge from some of his norms in recent seasons (e.g., line changes for a time in 2014, zone defense in 2015), so maybe this is the season he diverges from the 7 or 8 man rotation and plays all nine guys?

That said, my personal opinions have been wrong a lot more than this system has. I'll be quite intrigued to see how the rotation plays out in 2015-16.

[FireOgilvie]

Well, the final 2015 RSCI is out, and thus we can attempt to apply the "system" I proposed last season that seems to have heavy predictive power for Duke's rotation.

This coming season would seem to be an interesting test of the system. Based on the combination of RSCI and experience that I laid out in the first post of this thread, the predicted rotation will be:

Predicted perimeter rotation: Brandon Ingram (1.0), Derryck Thornton (2.0), Matt Jones (2.0), Grayson Allen (2.5)
Predicted interior rotation: Amile Jefferson (1.5), Chase Jeter (2.0), Marshall Plumlee (2.5)

Other perimeter players: Luke Kennard (3.0), Justin Robinson (4.0)
Other interior players: Sean Obi (3.0), Antonio Vrankovic (4.0)


I say this could be a big test because the consensus opinion around here seems to have Luke Kennard in the rotation playing somewhat heavy minutes, seems to feel Sean Obi will play solid rotation minutes, and seems to think Chase Jeter probably isn't ready. In fact, if I was forced to stand by a personal opinion, I'd probably suggest an 8-man rotation, with Luke and Sean in and Chase out. I might also suggest that Coach K has appeared to diverge from some of his norms in recent seasons (e.g., line changes for a time in 2014, zone defense in 2015), so maybe this is the season he diverges from the 7 or 8 man rotation and plays all nine guys?

That said, my personal opinions have been wrong a lot more than this system has. I'll be quite intrigued to see how the rotation plays out in 2015-16.

Looks good. Would Marshall be a 2.0 because of his redshirt year?

[Kedsy]

Looks good. Would Marshall be a 2.0 because of his redshirt year?

Exactly.

[Kedsy]

Looks good. Would Marshall be a 2.0 because of his redshirt year?

Sorry, I just realized you were telling me I made a mistake. Yes, Marshall should be 2.0, as you've suggested. I meant to type 2.0 for him and messed up.

So, if the theory holds any water, his place in the rotation should be relatively safe.

[Skitzle]

Did we retroactively look at how the system held up last year?

[DukieInBrasil]

Well, the final 2015 RSCI is out, and thus we can attempt to apply the "system" I proposed last season that seems to have heavy predictive power for Duke's rotation.

This coming season would seem to be an interesting test of the system. Based on the combination of RSCI and experience that I laid out in the first post of this thread, the predicted rotation will be:

Predicted perimeter rotation: Brandon Ingram (1.0), Derryck Thornton (2.0), Matt Jones (2.0), Grayson Allen (2.5)
Predicted interior rotation: Amile Jefferson (1.5), Chase Jeter (2.0), Marshall Plumlee (2.5)

Other perimeter players: Luke Kennard (3.0), Justin Robinson (4.0)
Other interior players: Sean Obi (3.0), Antonio Vrankovic (4.0)


I say this could be a big test because the consensus opinion around here seems to have Luke Kennard in the rotation playing somewhat heavy minutes, seems to feel Sean Obi will play solid rotation minutes, and seems to think Chase Jeter probably isn't ready. In fact, if I was forced to stand by a personal opinion, I'd probably suggest an 8-man rotation, with Luke and Sean in and Chase out. I might also suggest that Coach K has appeared to diverge from some of his norms in recent seasons (e.g., line changes for a time in 2014, zone defense in 2015), so maybe this is the season he diverges from the 7 or 8 man rotation and plays all nine guys?

That said, my personal opinions have been wrong a lot more than this system has. I'll be quite intrigued to see how the rotation plays out in 2015-16.

I'm kinda hoping that both Robinson and Vrankovic redshirt this year, it's always nice to see guys that come in under the radar have a fine Sr. season, and i believe a redshirt season would help both of them in that regard. For that to happen it would require that the other 9 players not get injured and play pretty damn well. In addition to having 9 highly recruited and/or experienced players "ahead" of them in the rotation, Robinson is playing behind 5 other guys at the G/Wing positions and Vrankovic is behind 4 other guys in the post.
The redshirt year helped MP3, although we haven't seen what he'll do in his Sr season yet, had last year been his Sr. season it would have been a fine way to finish his career at Duke as a National Champion, but perhaps he'll A) get to double up!!! and B) get opportunities to contribute even more to the team.
Both JR and AV came in ranked at a similar level as MP3, who was not able to contribute all that much even his first 2 years after the redshirt. Using the formula, it appears that both of them would have to wait a while to play all that much. Best of luck to both of them!

[Indoor66]

I'm kinda hoping that both Robinson and Vrankovic redshirt this year, it's always nice to see guys that come in under the radar have a fine Sr. season, and i believe a redshirt season would help both of them in that regard. For that to happen it would require that the other 9 players not get injured and play pretty damn well. In addition to having 9 highly recruited and/or experienced players "ahead" of them in the rotation, Robinson is playing behind 5 other guys at the G/Wing positions and Vrankovic is behind 4 other guys in the post.
The redshirt year helped MP3, although we haven't seen what he'll do in his Sr season yet, had last year been his Sr. season it would have been a fine way to finish his career at Duke as a National Champion, but perhaps he'll A) get to double up!!! and B) get opportunities to contribute even more to the team.
Both JR and AV came in ranked at a similar level as MP3, who was not able to contribute all that much even his first 2 years after the redshirt. Using the formula, it appears that both of them would have to wait a while to play all that much. Best of luck to both of them!

RE MP3: let us not forget that he took several bites of the injury apple and was very hindered in his development.

[CDu]

I'm kinda hoping that both Robinson and Vrankovic redshirt this year, it's always nice to see guys that come in under the radar have a fine Sr. season, and i believe a redshirt season would help both of them in that regard. For that to happen it would require that the other 9 players not get injured and play pretty damn well. In addition to having 9 highly recruited and/or experienced players "ahead" of them in the rotation, Robinson is playing behind 5 other guys at the G/Wing positions and Vrankovic is behind 4 other guys in the post.
The redshirt year helped MP3, although we haven't seen what he'll do in his Sr season yet, had last year been his Sr. season it would have been a fine way to finish his career at Duke as a National Champion, but perhaps he'll A) get to double up!!! and B) get opportunities to contribute even more to the team.
Both JR and AV came in ranked at a similar level as MP3, who was not able to contribute all that much even his first 2 years after the redshirt. Using the formula, it appears that both of them would have to wait a while to play all that much. Best of luck to both of them!

Actually, Vrankovic and Robinson ranked substantially lower than Plumlee. Plumlee ranked somewhere around 60 in RSCI, whereas Vrankovic was presumably just outside of the top-100 and (our) Robinson was nowhere close to the top-100. Even more reason they should redshirt.

[Kedsy]

Did we retroactively look at how the system held up last year?

Last year, we weren't sure back in June whether Justise Winslow would be able to play/defend PF (if he couldn't, then we wouldn't have had a backup PF, and Semi would presumably have had to play instead of the fifth perimeter player).

But assuming he could, the system predicted:

Predicted perimeter rotation: Rasheed Sulaimon (1.0), Tyus Jones (1.0), Quinn Cook (1.5), Justise Winslow (2.0), Matt Jones (2.5)
Predicted interior rotation: Jahlil Okafor (1.0), Amile Jefferson (2.0), Marshall Plumlee (2.5)

Other perimeter players: Grayson Allen (3.0)
Other interior players: Semi Ojeleye (2.5, less experience than Marshall Plumlee, less previous playing time than Matt Jones)


Obviously Justise was able to thrive at PF. So the above is pretty much what happened.

Also, the system could not possibly have predicted Rasheed leaving the team in mid-season. After he left, Grayson began getting minutes as the fifth perimeter player, but even with only eight on the roster, his minutes weren't consistent. Still, despite undoubtedly being the 8th man, Grayson averaged 12+ mpg after Rasheed departed, more than the system would have guessed for a guy of his rating if we'd started the season with only 8 players. Considering the weirdness and the timing and the fact that Grayson only averaged 8.3 mpg for the season, I wouldn't call this a failure of the system. But it might signal that Coach K possibly could be open to broadening from a default 7-man rotation to a default 8-man, giving us hope that Luke Kennard could sneak in this season as the 5th perimeter option.

[CDu]

Last year, we weren't sure back in June whether Justise Winslow would be able to play/defend PF (if he couldn't, then we wouldn't have had a backup PF, and Semi would presumably have had to play instead of the fifth perimeter player).

But assuming he could, the system predicted:

Predicted perimeter rotation: Rasheed Sulaimon (1.0), Tyus Jones (1.0), Quinn Cook (1.5), Justise Winslow (2.0), Matt Jones (2.5)
Predicted interior rotation: Jahlil Okafor (1.0), Amile Jefferson (2.0), Marshall Plumlee (2.5)

Other perimeter players: Grayson Allen (3.0)
Other interior players: Semi Ojeleye (2.5, less experience than Marshall Plumlee, less previous playing time than Matt Jones)


Obviously Justise was able to thrive at PF. So the above is pretty much what happened.

Also, the system could not possibly have predicted Rasheed leaving the team in mid-season. After he left, Grayson began getting minutes as the fifth perimeter player, but even with only eight on the roster, his minutes weren't consistent. Still, despite undoubtedly being the 8th man, Grayson averaged 12+ mpg after Rasheed departed, more than the system would have guessed for a guy of his rating if we'd started the season with only 8 players. Considering the weirdness and the timing and the fact that Grayson only averaged 8.3 mpg for the season, I wouldn't call this a failure of the system. But it might signal that Coach K possibly could be open to broadening from a default 7-man rotation to a default 8-man, giving us hope that Luke Kennard could sneak in this season as the 5th perimeter option.

Worth noting that even before Sulaimon's exit he was playing only about as much as Matt Jones, despite being seemingly a must-start based on rating and experience. So we were already seeing some deviation from the system, no? Again, that may all tie back to an anomalous personality though.

[sagegrouse]

Worth noting that even before Sulaimon's exit he was playing only about as much as Matt Jones, despite being seemingly a must-start based on rating and experience. So we were already seeing some deviation from the system, no? Again, that may all tie back to an anomalous personality though.

Kudos to Kedsy (hey, that could be a song title) for going to the trouble to put this together.. But this exercise is curve-fitting -- no one is expecting the RSCI to be flawless and for college experience to benefit each player to the same degree. I expect K and staff were impressed with Matt Jones's tough-as-nails defense, a skill unlikely to be properly addressed in recruiting rankings.

[CDu]

Kudos to Kedsy (hey, that could be a song title) for going to the trouble to put this together.. But this exercise is curve-fitting -- no one is expecting the RSCI to be flawless and for college experience to benefit each player to the same degree. I expect K and staff were impressed with Matt Jones's tough-as-nails defense, a skill unlikely to be properly addressed in recruiting rankings.

Agreed. My point is just that there can be anomalous situations that break the rules a bit. Like, perhaps, Kennard this year.

[Duvall]

Kudos to Kedsy (hey, that could be a song title) for going to the trouble to put this together.. But this exercise is curve-fitting -- no one is expecting the RSCI to be flawless and for college experience to benefit each player to the same degree. I expect K and staff were impressed with Matt Jones's tough-as-nails defense, a skill unlikely to be properly addressed in recruiting rankings.

I mean, is it unlikely? The people putting together the rankings are watching the same games and practices as the Duke staff, and often take into account a player's defensive potential in evaluating players.