Outstanding work, Kedsy!
I believe there will be at least five perimeter players in 2014-15 that have ten minutes or more. I have two reasons:
First, I started with your assumptions and may have ended up at a different place: Jahlil and Marshall will very rarely play at the same time; therefore, their combined minutes will be less than 40 (don't ever misunderestimate the ability of Coach K to go small). Then, there will be 160+ minutes left to be shared. If it is primarily shared by five (Amile and four perimeter players), these five will average close to 30 MPG. It is much more likely that six players will get at least 10-15+ minutes per game.
Second, I believe Matt Jones is gonna play a lot. He averaged 7.3 mins. with four starts this year. Plus, he looks like he's 30 years old, which bespeaks a certain physical maturity and which will be a factor in getting on the court for defense. The last freshman who looked 30 years old was Carlos Boozer (who was only 17 when he enrolled). Also, I expect his shooting will improve substantially with an off-season of work.
Third, we have again a team with a big guy in the middle -- really big -- and eight other mobile players to choose from. I wouldn't be surprised at the end of the season to see that nine players will have averaged ten minutes per game, as the coaching staff tries lots of different combinations before settling on an eight player rotation by February.
Great work again, Kedsy.
Sage Grouse
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'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013