Recruiting ranking, experience, and playing time at Duke

[Kedsy]

Every year, debate rages here at DBR over who will find playing time at Duke. The high level of talent we enjoy on an annual basis combined with Coach K's propensity for a short rotation makes it natural message board fodder. Those who believe the Michael Gbinijes of the world will set college basketball on fire point to players like Jon Scheyer (#28 in the RSCI in 2006), who started and played big minutes as a freshman. Those who feel the hotshot newcomers will have to wait their turn point to players like Michael Gbinije himself, who despite being a highly regarded recruit played just 3.3 mpg as a freshman and only 0.9 mpg once ACC play began.

So who's right? Is there even an answer to this question? I say there is, that we can with reasonable accuracy predict who will be in Duke's rotation based on a relatively simple formula.

First, here are my assumptions:

(1) Coach K generally plays a 7-man rotation, consisting of four perimeter players and three bigs (C/PF). Thus, he will play the "best" four perimeter players and the "best" three bigs.

(2) Who is "best" is determined by a blend of talent and experience. While Coach K clearly does not make decisions based on recruiting rankings, such rankings are the best evaluation of "talent" that we fans possess.

(3) Experience is based on how many years a player has been in college, including redshirt years since a player does mature both physically and basketball-wise during a redshirt year.

(4) Coach K will occasionally go to an 8-man rotation if we have five outstanding perimeter options. It is also possible to see an 8-man rotation if two of the top three interior options more or less can only play center (since the RSCI was invented in 1998, this has only happened once, in 2010, but it looks like it may happen again next season, so I'm mentioning it here).

(5) The recruiting rankings aren't perfect. It would be silly to argue that the #21 recruit is significantly better than the #23 recruit. But we have to group them somehow, and on a quantum level we can make some broad statements, e.g., in general a top 10 recruit is a better player than a guy rated 11 to 20 (even while admitting that a #10 recruit may or may not be better than a #11 recruit, we have to draw lines somewhere).

(6) It's easier to predict who will be in the rotation as opposed to who will start or the exact order of who will get the most-to-least minutes (e.g., who will gain the 3rd-most minutes vs. the 6th-most minutes). Because the "best" players will probably make the rotation, but who starts, etc., is partially governed by ability to blend with teammates' skillsets, factors like conditioning, and actual on-court performance, none of which is necessarily susceptible to prediction without actually seeing practice, etc. In other words, we should be able to predict with reasonable accuracy whether Grayson Allen will get rotation minutes, but it will be almost impossible to say with any certainty whether Justise Winslow starts or is the 6th or 7th man (at least until Coach K speaks on the subject, and maybe not even then).


OK, here's the formula:

Freshmen players are assigned a number from 1 to 4 (lower being better), based on their RSCI recruting ranking, as follows:

1 to 10: 1
11 to 20: 2
21 to 35: 3
36+: 4

Non-freshmen players take their freshman number and subtract half a point (0.5) for each year they've been in college. Redshirt years count as a year in college, although if the player is away from the team (like Andre Dawkins in 2013), this could be debatable. A redshirt year due to a transfer counts an extra half point, because if the player hadn't exceeded the expectations of his recruiting ranking, Coach K probably wouldn't have accepted him as a transfer.

So, for example, Amile Jefferson was #21 in the RSCI in his senior year of high school (2012), so he started as a 3.0. In 2014-15, his junior year of college, he'll be a 2.0, because two half points will be deducted for his two years spent in college.

Assuming a 7-man rotation, the theory is that the seven guys who play the most minutes will be the perimeter players with the four lowest numbers and the interior players with the three lowest numbers. If we have five perimeter guys with numbers of 2.5 or lower, the rotation should be 8 guys (5 perimeter, 3 interior). This has happened four times in the past 15 years (2008, 2009, 2011, 2014).

In cases of ties, I generally go with the player who has more experience. If two players from the same class are tied for the last spot in the rotation, it's impossible to predict in advance which will be chosen, but if history is our guide, whoever wins the competition will play rotation minutes and the other won't play very much.



Let's see how this theory has worked in the past, going back to the 1999-2000 season:

1999-2000:

Predicted perimeter rotation: Jason Williams (1.0), Nate James* (1.5), Chris Carrawell* (2.5), Mike Dunleavy (3.0)
Predicted interior rotation: Shane Battier* (0.0), Carlos Boozer (1.0), Casey Sanders (2.0)

Other perimeter players: Andre Buckner** (5.0)
Other interior players: Matt Christensen* (3.5), Nick Horvath (4.0)

Actual perimeter rotation: J Williams (1157 minutes for season), N James (970), C Carrawell (1212), M Dunleavy (724)
Actual interior rotation: S Battier (1206), C Boozer (807), M Christensen (295)

Others: N Horvath (269), C Sanders (144), A Buckner (68)

* - since RSCI didn't exist before the 1998 high school seniors, I had to estimate Battier, Carrawell, James, and Christensen
** - since Andre Buckner was basically a walk-on with a scholarship, I counted him as a "5," rather than a "4."

OK, in the first year we look at, the formula failed for the 8th man, as both Matt Christensen and Nick Horvath beat out Casey Sanders. It's arguable, since Christensen didn't even play as much as 10 mpg, that we only had a 6-man rotation, with the six players the formula predicted, but instead I'm going to say this season gives us an exception to the rule.


2000-01:

Predicted perimeter rotation: Jason Williams (0.5), Nate James* (1.0), Chris Duhon (1.0), Mike Dunleavy (2.5)
Predicted interior rotation: Shane Battier* (-0.5), Carlos Boozer (0.5), Casey Sanders (1.5)

Other perimeter players: Andre Buckner** (4.5)
Other interior players: Matt Christensen* (3.0), Reggie Love (4.0)

Actual perimeter rotation: Jason Williams (1246 minutes for season), Nate James (1085), Chris Duhon (1085), Mike Dunleavy (1137)
Actual interior rotation: Shane Battier (1363), Carlos Boozer (820), Casey Sanders (373)

Others: Matt Christensen (253), Reggie Love (130), Andre Buckner (83)

Exactly as predicted


2001-02:

Predicted perimeter rotation: Jason Williams (0.0), Chris Duhon (0.5), Dahntay Jones (2.0), Daniel Ewing (3.0)
Predicted interior rotation: Carlos Boozer (0.0), Casey Sanders (1.0), Mike Dunleavy (2.0)

Other perimeter players: Andre Buckner** (4.0)
Other interior players: Matt Christensen* (2.5), Nick Horvath (3.0), Reggie Love (3.5)

Actual perimeter rotation: Jason Williams (1175), Chris Duhon (1229), Dahntay Jones (1012), Daniel Ewing (636)
Actual interior rotation: Carlos Boozer (993), Mike Dunleavy (1134), Nick Horvath (247)

Others: Casey Sanders (242), Matt Christensen (133), Reggie Love (59)

Again Casey Sanders got beat out for 7th man, although again, the guy who beat him out played fewer than 10 mpg, and this time if Casey had received six (6) more minutes of playing time the rotation would have been properly predicted. Still, he didn't get six more minutes, so here's another exception.


2002-03:

Predicted perimeter rotation: Chris Duhon (0.0), JJ Redick (2.0), Daniel Ewing (2.5), Sean Dockery (3.0)
Predicted interior rotation: Casey Sanders (0.5), Shelden Williams (1.0), Dahntay Jones (1.5)

Other perimeter players: Andre Buckner (3.5), Lee Melchionni (4.0)
Other interior players: Shavlik Randolph (2.0), Nick Horvath (3.0), Michael Thompson (3.0)

Actual perimeter rotation: Chris Duhon (1188), JJ Redick (1013), Daniel Ewing (920), Sean Dockery (345)
Actual interior rotation: Casey Sanders (589), Shelden Williams (633), Dahntay Jones (1014)

Others: Nick Horvath (405), Shavlik Randolph (351), Lee Melchionni (71), Mike Thompson (59), Andre Buckner (37)

It's not entirely clear whether Dahntay Jones was a perimeter or an interior player in 2002-03. However, since none of the obvious big men on the team earned more than 633 minutes, I think we'll have to call Dahntay an interior player for rotation purposes.

That said, this was a very odd year for a Coach K Duke team, in which 9 players earned more than 10 mpg for the season. Note that despite nine players averaging more than 10 mpg, we didn't actually have a 9-man rotation. We played 23 games that season after January 1 in which the score was within 20 points; nine guys got 10 or more minutes in only one of those games and eight guys got 10 or more minutes in only two other games. In three games only six guys played 10 or minutes, and in the remaining 17 games we had seven guys playing 10 or more minutes. So really, due to Dahntay's ability to play both the perimeter and interior, what really happened was Coach K tried lots of different 7-man combinations, and so it's hard to say which of Dockery or Randolph or Horvath was the 7th man.


2003-04:

Predicted perimeter rotation: Chris Duhon (-0.5), JJ Redick (1.5), Daniel Ewing (2.0), Sean Dockery (2.5)
Predicted interior rotation: Shelden Williams (0.5), Luol Deng (1.0), Shavlik Randolph (1.5)

Other perimeter players: Lee Melchionni (3.5)
Other interior players: Nick Horvath (2.5)

Actual perimeter rotation: Chris Duhon (1311), JJ Redick (1152), Daniel Ewing (1131), Sean Dockery (571)
Actual interior rotation: Shelden Williams (963), Luol Deng (1149), Shavlik Randolph (709)

Others: Nick Horvath (218), Lee Melchionni (145)

Exactly as predicted.


2004-05:

Predicted perimeter rotation: JJ Redick (1.0), Daniel Ewing (1.5), Sean Dockery (2.0), DeMarcus Nelson (2.0)
Predicted interior rotation: Shelden Williams (0.0), Shavlik Randolph (1.0), Lee Melchionni (3.0)

Other perimeter players: none
Other interior players: Reggie Love (3.0???), Dave McClure (4.0)

Actual perimeter rotation: JJ Redick (1231), Daniel Ewing (1138), Sean Dockery (720), DeMarcus Nelson (634)
Actual interior rotation: Shelden Williams (1109), Shavlik Randolph (548), Lee Melchionni (716)

Others: Reggie Love (215), Dave McClure (184)

Reggie Love hadn't played organized basketball in three years, so I wasn't sure how to grade him. He wasn't really recruited for basketball anyway, so since they were tied I wouldn't have expected him to beat out a junior Melchionni.


2005-06:

Predicted perimeter rotation: JJ Redick (0.5), Sean Dockery (1.5), DeMarcus Nelson (1.5), Greg Paulus (2.0)
Predicted interior rotation: Shelden Williams (-0.5), Josh McRoberts (1.0), Lee Melchionni (2.5)

Other perimeter players: Martynas Pocius (4.0)
Other interior players: Eric Boateng (4.0), Jamal Boykin (4.0)

Actual perimeter rotation: JJ Redick (1336), Sean Dockery (1069), DeMarcus Nelson (517), Greg Paulus (1163)
Actual interior rotation: Shelden Williams (1198), Josh McRoberts (883), Lee Melchionni (717)

Others: Martynas Pocius (172), Eric Boateng (50), Jamal Boykin (70)

Exactly as predicted, despite three intriguing freshmen (rated #39, #53, and #60). Here's an example of an upperclassman (Lee Melchionni) beating out three freshmen who had higher recruiting rankings than he did, due to his experience. If we'd had a 6'7 freshman rated #18 (and thus earning a 2.0), such a player very well could have beaten out Lee for the 3rd big slot, but guys with a 4.0 score weren't able to do it.


2006-07:

Predicted perimeter rotation: DeMarcus Nelson (1.0), Gerald Henderson (1.0), Greg Paulus (1.5), Jon Scheyer (3.0)
Predicted interior rotation: Josh McRoberts (0.5), Lance Thomas (2.0), Dave McClure (3.0)

Other perimeter players: Marty Pocius (3.5)
Other interior players: Brian Zoubek (3.0, less experience than Dave McClure)

Actual perimeter rotation: DeMarcus Nelson (1052), Gerald Henderson (618), Greg Paulus (1068), Jon Scheyer (1112)
Actual interior rotation: Josh McRoberts (1164), Lance Thomas (463), Dave McClure (716)

Others: Brian Zoubek (235), Marty Pocius (193)

Exactly as predicted. Jon Scheyer's #28 RSCI rank probably wouldn't have gotten him a rotation spot in most years, but in 2006-07, his 3.0 was the 4th best perimeter score. Brian Zoubek had a solid #25 RSCI rank, but it only earned him a tie with Dave McClure (in his 3rd year in the program) and McClure had more experience.


2007-08:

Predicted perimeter rotation: DeMarcus Nelson (0.5), Gerald Henderson (0.5), Greg Paulus (1.0), Nolan Smith (2.0), Jon Scheyer (2.5)
Predicted interior rotation: Kyle Singler (1.0), Lance Thomas (1.5), Dave McClure (2.5)

Other perimeter players: Taylor King (3.0)
Other interior players: Brian Zoubek (2.5)

Actual perimeter rotation: DeMarcus Nelson (1051), Gerald Henderson (891), Greg Paulus (943), Nolan Smith (500), Jon Scheyer (963)
Actual interior rotation: Kyle Singler (972), Lance Thomas (593), Dave McClure (268)

Others: Taylor King (330), Brian Zoubek (262)

Exactly as predicted. This was a year that we had five outstanding (2.5 or better) perimeter options, so it's one of the few years we played an 8-man rotation. Again, McClure and Zoubek were tied (and McClure still had more experience), but the gap between them narrowed.


2008-09:

Predicted perimeter rotation: Gerald Henderson (0.0), Greg Paulus (0.5), Nolan Smith (1.5), Jon Scheyer (2.0), Elliot Williams (2.0)
Predicted interior rotation: Kyle Singler (0.5), Lance Thomas (1.0), Dave McClure (2.0)

Other perimeter players: Marty Pocius (2.5)
Other interior players: Brian Zoubek (2.0), Miles Plumlee (4.0), Olek Czyz (4.0)

Actual perimeter rotation: Gerald Henderson (1098), Greg Paulus (578), Nolan Smith (734), Jon Scheyer (1214), Elliot Williams (563)
Actual interior rotation: Kyle Singler (1193), Lance Thomas (689), Dave McClure (568)

Others: Brian Zoubek (427), Miles Plumlee (165), Marty Pocius (135), Olek Czyz (51)

As predicted. Again, we had five outstanding perimeter options, although in reality we never had an 8-man rotation (rather Elliot Williams, 5th on the perimeter totem pole, displaced Greg Paulus for the fourth perimeter slot, although for the season Paulus still had more minutes). Zoubek and McClure were still tied and once again experience prevailed, though Zoubek's minutes continued on the way up. Marty Pocius was down to a 2.5, but that still made him the sixth perimeter option.


2009-10:

Predicted perimeter rotation: Kyle Singler (0.0), Nolan Smith (1.0), Jon Scheyer (1.5), Andre Dawkins (3.0)
Predicted interior rotation: Lance Thomas (0.5), Brian Zoubek (1.5), Mason Plumlee (2.0) OR Ryan Kelly (2.0) (but not both)

Other perimeter players: none
Other interior players: Miles Plumlee (3.5)

Actual perimeter rotation: Kyle Singler (1436), Nolan Smith (1349), Jon Scheyer (1470), Andre Dawkins (477)
Actual interior rotation: Lance Thomas (1013), Brian Zoubek (746), Miles Plumlee (654)

Others: Mason Plumlee (480), Ryan Kelly (227)

You could argue that we played a 4-big rotation this season (8-man overall), with Mason Plumlee beating Ryan Kelly out of the tie for the 4th big spot, but that doesn't change the fact that Miles Plumlee leapfrogged both freshmen for the 7th spot, thus this season contains an exception to the rule. That said, I suspect the reason for this exception is Mason Plumlee's early season broken hand. It cost him the first six games of the season, and then he had to play catchup as a freshman. Considering how the staff was touting him in the pre-season, my guess is had he not gotten injured he would have won the third spot in the big rotation and this season would have gone exactly as predicted.


2010-11:

Predicted perimeter rotation: Kyle Singler (-0.5), Nolan Smith (0.5), Kyrie Irving (1.0), Andre Dawkins (2.5), Seth Curry (2.5)
Predicted interior rotation: Mason Plumlee (1.5), Ryan Kelly (1.5), Miles Plumlee (3.0)

Other perimeter players: Tyler Thornton (4.0)
Other interior players: Josh Hairston (3.0, less experience than Miles Plumlee)

Actual perimeter rotation: Kyle Singler (1286), Nolan Smith (1259), Kyrie Irving*** (303), Andre Dawkins (778), Seth Curry (924)
Actual interior rotation: Mason Plumlee (949), Ryan Kelly (743), Miles Plumlee (628)

Others: Tyler Thornton (337), Josh Hairston (165)

*** Kyrie obviously was a big part of the rotation while healthy.

Another season skewed by an injury. Again we see five outstanding perimeter options and a five man (counting Kyrie) perimeter rotation. So this season went as predicted as possible considering Kyrie's injury.


2011-12:

Predicted perimeter rotation: Austin Rivers (1.0), Seth Curry (2.0), Andre Dawkins (2.0), Quinn Cook (3.0) OR Michael Gbinije (3.0) (but not both)
Predicted interior rotation: Mason Plumlee (1.0), Ryan Kelly (1.0), Miles Plumlee (2.5)

Other perimeter players: Tyler Thornton (3.5)
Other interior players: Josh Hairston (2.5)

Actual perimeter rotation: Austin Rivers (1129), Seth Curry (1026), Andre Dawkins (760), Tyler Thornton (717)
Actual interior rotation: Mason Plumlee (964), Ryan Kelly (803), Miles Plumlee (697)

Others: Quinn Cook (387), Josh Hairston (246), Michael Gbinije (111)

Gbinije and Cook were tied and Cook beat Silent G out, and for awhile we played an 8-man (5-perimeter) rotation, despite Quinn's number being not quite as good as we usually needed for that. But in the end, Tyler Thornton leapfrogged them both and thus this season includes an exception. Again Miles's experience advantage broke his tie with Josh.


2012-13:

Predicted perimeter rotation: Seth Curry (1.5), Rasheed Sulaimon (2.0), Quinn Cook (2.5), Tyler Thornton (3.0)
Predicted interior rotation: Mason Plumlee (0.5), Ryan Kelly (0.5), Josh Hairston (2.0)

Other perimeter players: Alex Murphy (3.5)
Other interior players: Amile Jefferson (3.0), Marshall Plumlee (3.5)

Actual perimeter rotation: Seth Curry (1130), Rasheed Sulaimon (1050), Quinn Cook (1208), Tyler Thornton (791)
Actual interior rotation: Mason Plumlee (1248), Ryan Kelly (664), Josh Hairston (444)

Others: Amile Jefferson (405), Alex Murphy (194), Marshall Plumlee (50)

Exactly as predicted. Ryan Kelly's injury thrust the next guy in the pecking order (Amile) into the rotation for 13 games, which is why his minutes almost reached Josh's. Despite DBR clamoring for Alex and Marshall to get minutes, they clearly were the lowest rated.


2013-14:

Predicted perimeter rotation: Rasheed Sulaimon (1.5), Rodney Hood (1.5), Andre Dawkins (1.5), Quinn Cook (2.0), Tyler Thornton (2.5)
Predicted interior rotation: Jabari Parker (1.0), Josh Hairston (1.5), Amile Jefferson (2.5)

Other perimeter players: Matt Jones (3.0), Semi Ojeleye (3.0)
Other interior players: Marshall Plumlee (3.0)

Actual perimeter rotation: Rasheed Sulaimon (871), Rodney Hood (1150), Andre Dawkins (453), Quinn Cook (1042), Tyler Thornton (745)
Actual interior rotation: Jabari Parker (1073), Josh Hairston (284), Amile Jefferson (796)

Others: Marshall Plumlee (254), Matt Jones (235), Semi Ojeleye (80)

As predicted. I didn't move Andre up a half point for the year he spent away from the program, but he was still among five outstanding perimeter options and Coach K once again played all five in the rotation. Marshall almost but didn't quite catch Josh for the 8th most minutes. Despite DBR clamoring for Semi, Matt, and Alex (also 3.0) they were all tied for 7th among perimeter options and/or 4th among interior options.


Fifteen (15) seasons, 109 rotation spots, and only four (4) exceptions to the rule. And two of those four exceptions were due to Casey Sanders probably being overrated as a high school senior, while a third was likely due to injury. No system is perfect, but this one seems to cover most of the angles, explaining why some guys in the high 20s (e.g., Scheyer, Dunleavy, Ewing) played solid rotation minutes while others with similar or even better ratings (e.g., Gbinije, T King, Zoubek, Randolph, Kelly) didn't.



The new final RSCI just came out, so we can apply this theory to our upcoming 2014 rotation. Looks like Jahlil Okafor retained his #1 ranking, Tyus Jones came in at #7, Justise Winslow at #13, and Grayson Allen at #24. So what does our theory predict for the 2014-15 season? Let's take a look:

2014-15:

Predicted perimeter rotation: Rasheed Sulaimon (1.0), Tyus Jones (1.0), Quinn Cook (1.5), Justise Winslow (2.0)
Predicted interior rotation: Jahlil Okafor (1.0), Amile Jefferson (2.0), Marshall Plumlee (2.5)

Other perimeter players: Matt Jones (2.5), Grayson Allen (3.0)
Other interior players: Semi Ojeleye (2.5, less experience than Marshall Plumlee)

If we apply the "five outstanding perimeter player" rule, then Matt Jones (2.5) would appear in the predicted perimeter rotation (or if Semi Ojeleye is considered a perimeter player, since he's also 2.5 with the same experience as Matt, then possibly he could beat Matt out for that spot).

The only reason I didn't include the fifth perimeter guy is the fact that Marshall and Jahlil are both "pure" centers who are unlikely to be on the court together for more than a few minutes (if at all). Since Amile isn't going to play 40 minutes, presumably either Justise or Semi will have to fill the positional need of backup PF and, depending on which one it is, we may see a quirk. If it's Justise, then Matt (or possibly Semi) can fill in as the fifth outstanding perimeter option in an 8-man rotation. I guess it's also possible that Semi beats Marshall out for the third big man spot (they both rated at 2.5 but Marshall has been at Duke a year longer), in which case Matt could be the fifth outstanding perimeter guy and Marshall could be outside the rotation, looking in.

But if we have four bigs in the rotation, and the fourth big is Semi, then the "five outstanding perimeter option" rule will probably have to be ignored (meaning Matt Jones will not make the rotation), because it's very unlikely Coach K would go to a 9-man rotation. That said, we had a similar situation in 2003, so we might have a season like that in which Coach K tries a lot of different 7- or 8-man rotations before finally settling on one of them.

In the end, if the theory holds then we should be fairly confident that Rasheed, Tyus, Quinn, Justise, Jahlil, Amile and probably Marshall will be in the rotation. But Grayson Allen, despite earning a very respectable #24 in the RSCI, is very unlikely to be. There is likely to be an 8th guy earning around 10 mpg, and the only real question is whether that 8th man will be Matt or Semi.

Unless Coach K decides to completely abandon the substitution pattern he's used for at least the past 15 years. And while of course that's possible, I wouldn't bet on it.