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  1. #81
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    In the meantime, out west

    and therefore out of the sight of the Eastern media and fans, the A's, for the moment, own the best record in the AL--12-5, which translates to a .706 percentage. They have done this despite some sloppy defensive play (today they committed two errors in their 4-3 win over the Astros).

    Starting pitching has been very good even though two projected starters are on the DL. They have three pitchers in the top 11 of the ERA standings. I'm omitting the W-L records since it is too early to say anything definitive. Oh, and Duke's Danny Otero has become a bullpen stalwart with a 1.0 ERA (and 3 credited wins, due to late inning circumstances).

    Brandon Moss is second in the league in RBIs with 15, behind only the Twins' Chris Colabello's 19. Alberto Callaspo is hitting .327--a very hot start for a platoon player

    Also out west, the Angels have two players, Albert Pujols and Mike Trout, who are tearing up the home run race with 6 and 5 respectively (Pujols is tied for first with the Jays' Jose Bautista).

    Newcomers Craig Gentry and Nick Punto seem better than OK. Josh Reddick may be out of his slump, having gone 6-9 in the past two days.

    Texas is close on the A's heels. So things are relatively normal here. We'll get a better bead on them when they begin to play better opponents.

  2. #82

    The A's

    Quote Originally Posted by Jim3k View Post
    and therefore out of the sight of the Eastern media and fans, the A's, for the moment, own the best record in the AL--12-5, which translates to a .706 percentage. They have done this despite some sloppy defensive play (today they committed two errors in their 4-3 win over the Astros).
    Sorry, Jim, but that sounds like the kind of anti-ESPN complaints that we get from Duke fans every basketball season.

    The A's are out of sight of the "Eastern media"?

    I don't get that. I watch the MLB Network all the time and they are all over the A's and their hot start. In fact, I'd be willing to bet they've spent more time on MLB Tonight (their wrap-around show that shows highlights from every game in progress) showing A's highlights than anyone else. At least three A's players have done live interviews on Intentional Talk (a daily pregame show).

    I don't watch as much ESPN, but I do see Baseball Tonight most nights and they are all over the A's fast start too. I see the A's prominently mentioned on SportsCenter.

    And before you start throwing snarky remarks about getting "a better read on Texas when they start to play better opponents" you might want to look closely at your own glass house.

    That's 12-5 start includes 11 wins against teams that didn't make the playoffs last season (and almost certainly won't this year ... every one of those teams currently has a losing record). The A's do have a win over Cleveland, which was a wild card team a year ago (and quickly eliminated). But the A's were just 1-2 in their series with the Indians (and Cleveland is 7-10 after 17 games)..

    Now, beating up on bad teams and playing .500 ball against the good teams is a good way to make the playoffs, but I have to say it keeps me from going too ga-ga over Oakland's 12-5 start.

  3. #83
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    Maybe I wasn't clear, but my "getting a better bead" was aimed at the A's, not the Rangers. I am well aware that the A's early jump has been against weaker clubs. And the Rangers are indeed hot on the A's heels.

    As for the Eastern Media comment, I admit to extrapolating from this thread where there are virtually no comments about the west, AL or NL. I'd have expected something from our DBR posters if West coverage were available...if it is, then people just aren't interested enough to comment.

    In any event, my comment was mainly directed at the 3-hour time difference, particularly on night games. I just spent seven days in South Carolina and could see the limited coverage in the East. All the eastern papers go to bed before the western games are done so nothing for breakfast. TV can't show the finals either, cuz they're not finished before midnight eastern time.

    And shows like Baseball Tonight must wait until the following day to cover the West's night games. I sometimes watch, out here, their late west coast coverage, which you might not see since it would be well after midnight for you. It's eastern loaded, due to sequencing, though they squeeze in at least some western games. The Giants are the usual lead here. Normally, I just go to bed.

    Anyway, as usual, it's fun for me, just as it is for you. At least you keep me up to date with the Yankees and their bretheren. BTW, for health reasons I've given up my (shared) season tix in the first row near the visitors bullpen. I now have individual seats high on the second level behind the screen. That gives me elevator access. I'll try to see all the visiting teams at least once--maybe 15 games altogether.

  4. #84

    the West Coast

    Quote Originally Posted by Jim3k View Post
    Maybe I wasn't clear, but my "getting a better bead" was aimed at the A's, not the Rangers. I am well aware that the A's early jump has been against weaker clubs. And the Rangers are indeed hot on the A's heels.

    As for the Eastern Media comment, I admit to extrapolating from this thread where there are virtually no comments about the west, AL or NL. I'd have expected something from our DBR posters if West coverage were available...if it is, then people just aren't interested enough to comment.

    In any event, my comment was mainly directed at the 3-hour time difference, particularly on night games.

    Hey, sorry if there was a misunderstanding about the "better bead" comment ... as for the other, obviously there is a disadvantage in coverage of West Coast night games in the East, due to the 3-hour time difference. But I think the major media outlets do their best to keep abreast of what's going on on the left coast. As for the lack of comments in this thread, I wonder how much of that is due to the fact that most of the posters are from the East and Midwest. It's true that I'm mostly interested in the Yankees and Braves -- that's why I post about those teams. But I'm interested in any cool baseball story (like the Maldonado story from a couple of days ago). If you want to read more about the A's here, keep us filled in.

    BTW: Anybody see the crazy play in the Angels-Tigers game today?

    In the first inning, Kinsler is on first for the Tigers and on a 3-2 pitch, he takes off ... the pitch is ball four, but Conger throws through anyway. His throw is wild, allowing Kinsler to reach third. But Trout, playing centerfield, lobs one back in, missing the cutoff man and allowing the ball to roll free -- as Kinsler takes off for home. They might have had a play on him, but the pitcher, Santiago picks up the ball in the infield and throws wild to the catcher (also allowing Cabrera, who had walked, to reach second).

    Three errors on a walk? A Little League team would be ashamed of that one.

    The run would be decisive in a 2-1 Detroit win ... and indeed the other Detroit run was set up by a Conger throwing error too.

  5. #85
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    Hey, sorry if there was a misunderstanding about the "better bead" comment ... as for the other, obviously there is a disadvantage in coverage of West Coast night games in the East, due to the 3-hour time difference. But I think the major media outlets do their best to keep abreast of what's going on on the left coast. As for the lack of comments in this thread, I wonder how much of that is due to the fact that most of the posters are from the East and Midwest. It's true that I'm mostly interested in the Yankees and Braves -- that's why I post about those teams. But I'm interested in any cool baseball story (like the Maldonado story from a couple of days ago). If you want to read more about the A's here, keep us filled in.

    BTW: Anybody see the crazy play in the Angels-Tigers game today?

    In the first inning, Kinsler is on first for the Tigers and on a 3-2 pitch, he takes off ... the pitch is ball four, but Conger throws through anyway. His throw is wild, allowing Kinsler to reach third. But Trout, playing centerfield, lobs one back in, missing the cutoff man and allowing the ball to roll free -- as Kinsler takes off for home. They might have had a play on him, but the pitcher, Santiago picks up the ball in the infield and throws wild to the catcher (also allowing Cabrera, who had walked, to reach second).

    Three errors on a walk? A Little League team would be ashamed of that one.

    The run would be decisive in a 2-1 Detroit win ... and indeed the other Detroit run was set up by a Conger throwing error too.
    Now I feel like I have been guilt-tripped into posting here. To be honest, I do not pay too much attention to baseball until after the NBA and NHL seasons are over.

    As for the A's, I would just like to say that I hope that the Daric Barton experiment nightmare ends sometime soon and we can get Nate Freiman back up.

  6. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    Hey, sorry if there was a misunderstanding about the "better bead" comment ... as for the other, obviously there is a disadvantage in coverage of West Coast night games in the East, due to the 3-hour time difference. But I think the major media outlets do their best to keep abreast of what's going on on the left coast. As for the lack of comments in this thread, I wonder how much of that is due to the fact that most of the posters are from the East and Midwest. It's true that I'm mostly interested in the Yankees and Braves -- that's why I post about those teams. But I'm interested in any cool baseball story (like the Maldonado story from a couple of days ago). If you want to read more about the A's here, keep us filled in.

    BTW: Anybody see the crazy play in the Angels-Tigers game today?

    In the first inning, Kinsler is on first for the Tigers and on a 3-2 pitch, he takes off ... the pitch is ball four, but Conger throws through anyway. His throw is wild, allowing Kinsler to reach third. But Trout, playing centerfield, lobs one back in, missing the cutoff man and allowing the ball to roll free -- as Kinsler takes off for home. They might have had a play on him, but the pitcher, Santiago picks up the ball in the infield and throws wild to the catcher (also allowing Cabrera, who had walked, to reach second).

    Three errors on a walk? A Little League team would be ashamed of that one.

    The run would be decisive in a 2-1 Detroit win ... and indeed the other Detroit run was set up by a Conger throwing error too.
    Speaking of errors. The Orioles, the most sure-handed team in the league had 3 errors last night against the Red Sox. They all ended up being consequential to the final score. I'm not sure what's up with the umpires lately though, I would have to say, as a Red Sox fan, that the first one, where Brady was trying to get the ball out of his glove to turn the double play and dropped it, should have been an out where they called the runner safe. He clearly caught the ball and was trying to transfer it. I'd rather they get that one right than the "neighborhood" play they always let go where the shortstop never touches the bag on a turn two play but they call the runner out anyway.
    Duke '96
    Cary, NC

  7. #87
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    Anyone see the brawl yesterday after Carlos Gomez made a "wanker" of himself by preening over a triple that he thought would be a homer? Dude seems to be a lightning rod for controversy. He is the guy who never touched home plate on a homer last season because Brian McCann thought he was showing up the pitcher and got in his way.

    -Jason "act like you have been there before, Carlos..." Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  8. #88
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Anyone see the brawl yesterday after Carlos Gomez made a "wanker" of himself by preening over a triple that he thought would be a homer? Dude seems to be a lightning rod for controversy. He is the guy who never touched home plate on a homer last season because Brian McCann thought he was showing up the pitcher and got in his way.

    -Jason "act like you have been there before, Carlos..." Evans
    Gomez is a jerk, but I don't really see any "preening". He was certainly foolish to assume a HR, but that was awfully commonplace as a HR trot goes. Obviously the brawl was his fault for exploding at Cole and getting physical, but I don't see how he did anything worthy of comment from Cole in the first place. (If anyone should have been scolding him as he came into third, it was his own coach for not starting off in a run).
    Demented and sad, but social, right?

  9. #89
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    TRIGGER WARNING: NEGATIVE CONTENT AHEAD







    DFA Uggla. He's done.

  10. #90
    Quote Originally Posted by Blue in the Face View Post
    Billy Hamilton is really really fast.
    Still not really hitting, though he's had a pretty good week. Still really really fast.

    Demented and sad, but social, right?

  11. #91

    Simmons

    I got pumped up tonight when Simmons homered early against the Marlins -- his third of the year.

    It made me think of the exchange on the Spring Training thread when Jason suggested that Simmons was the best shortstop in the National League and somebody else responded by talking about Tulowitzki and Desmond. I still remember Jason printing their 2013 WARs -- which had Simmons as the best of the three.

    Well, although I love most of the new stats, I'm not a huge fan of WAR. But I don't think anybody would debate that Simmons is -- by far -- the best of the three defensively -- by a wide margin. His 2013 dWAR was 5.4 -- which is higher than Ozzie Smith ever recorded in a single season. It's higher than Cal Ripken and Derek Jeter's two best seasons added together.

    Like I say, I don't trust WAR, so I'm not claiming that Simmons is the best defensive SS of the modern era (or even that he had the single best defensive season of any modern SS). Actually, Omar Visquel had the best defensive WAR I can find for a SS in 1999 (6.0).

    Still, I think we agree that at the moment he's a great defensive SS. And in our earlier debate, Jason expressed the confidence that he would mature as a hitter -- as he seems to be doing. If he's a .299 hitter with a .817 OPS -- as he is after tonight's game -- then you can make the case that Simmons IS the best SS in baseball at this moment.

    Desmond is off to a horrible start -- .233 with a .653 OPS and an NL high eight errors. Tulowitzki is off to an awesome offensive start -- .393 and a 1.154 OPS (going into tonight's game). He's an above average defensive shortstop (although not in Simmons' Class).

    It's going to be interesting to watch those three guys play out the season. I can't believe Desmond won't snap out of his slump. Can Simmons maintain his current offensive level? What about TT?

    But I have to give you props, Jason. Your comments -- which I thought at the time were somewhat tongue in cheek -- are proving to be right on the money.

  12. #92
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    Dev11 is offline Commissioner of Statistics, DBR Podcast
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    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    I got pumped up tonight when Simmons homered early against the Marlins -- his third of the year.

    It made me think of the exchange on the Spring Training thread when Jason suggested that Simmons was the best shortstop in the National League and somebody else responded by talking about Tulowitzki and Desmond. I still remember Jason printing their 2013 WARs -- which had Simmons as the best of the three.

    Well, although I love most of the new stats, I'm not a huge fan of WAR. But I don't think anybody would debate that Simmons is -- by far -- the best of the three defensively -- by a wide margin. His 2013 dWAR was 5.4 -- which is higher than Ozzie Smith ever recorded in a single season. It's higher than Cal Ripken and Derek Jeter's two best seasons added together.

    Like I say, I don't trust WAR, so I'm not claiming that Simmons is the best defensive SS of the modern era (or even that he had the single best defensive season of any modern SS). Actually, Omar Visquel had the best defensive WAR I can find for a SS in 1999 (6.0).

    Still, I think we agree that at the moment he's a great defensive SS. And in our earlier debate, Jason expressed the confidence that he would mature as a hitter -- as he seems to be doing. If he's a .299 hitter with a .817 OPS -- as he is after tonight's game -- then you can make the case that Simmons IS the best SS in baseball at this moment.

    Desmond is off to a horrible start -- .233 with a .653 OPS and an NL high eight errors. Tulowitzki is off to an awesome offensive start -- .393 and a 1.154 OPS (going into tonight's game). He's an above average defensive shortstop (although not in Simmons' Class).

    It's going to be interesting to watch those three guys play out the season. I can't believe Desmond won't snap out of his slump. Can Simmons maintain his current offensive level? What about TT?

    But I have to give you props, Jason. Your comments -- which I thought at the time were somewhat tongue in cheek -- are proving to be right on the money.
    'Twas I who mentioned Desi and Tulo. From what I understand about the defensive WAR calculation, the metrics that go into it take a while to settle, so even a year's worth of data can't really be considered accurate. I agree that Simmons is likely the best defender, and if he continues on his current offensive tear, then yeah, he's the best SS int he game, but we've been here for 3 weeks.

    Desmond's start isn't helping my position here.

    OF, I hope when you say you don't like WAR that you're dismissing offensive WAR, which is a pretty cut-and-dry reflection of the value a player has given. Defensive WAR is shady but offensive and baserunning WAR are solid.

  13. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    I got pumped up tonight when Simmons homered early against the Marlins -- his third of the year.

    It made me think of the exchange on the Spring Training thread when Jason suggested that Simmons was the best shortstop in the National League and somebody else responded by talking about Tulowitzki and Desmond. I still remember Jason printing their 2013 WARs -- which had Simmons as the best of the three.

    Well, although I love most of the new stats, I'm not a huge fan of WAR. But I don't think anybody would debate that Simmons is -- by far -- the best of the three defensively -- by a wide margin. His 2013 dWAR was 5.4 -- which is higher than Ozzie Smith ever recorded in a single season. It's higher than Cal Ripken and Derek Jeter's two best seasons added together.

    Like I say, I don't trust WAR, so I'm not claiming that Simmons is the best defensive SS of the modern era (or even that he had the single best defensive season of any modern SS). Actually, Omar Visquel had the best defensive WAR I can find for a SS in 1999 (6.0).

    Still, I think we agree that at the moment he's a great defensive SS. And in our earlier debate, Jason expressed the confidence that he would mature as a hitter -- as he seems to be doing. If he's a .299 hitter with a .817 OPS -- as he is after tonight's game -- then you can make the case that Simmons IS the best SS in baseball at this moment.

    Desmond is off to a horrible start -- .233 with a .653 OPS and an NL high eight errors. Tulowitzki is off to an awesome offensive start -- .393 and a 1.154 OPS (going into tonight's game). He's an above average defensive shortstop (although not in Simmons' Class).

    It's going to be interesting to watch those three guys play out the season. I can't believe Desmond won't snap out of his slump. Can Simmons maintain his current offensive level? What about TT?
    The interesting question is how good Simmons has to be offensively to be the best overall shortstop. Simmons was valuable even with a .700 OPS last year, but it seems like he can do better than that.

    And Desmond has nine errors in 20 games. Don't think he'll end up keeping the pace for a 72-error season though.

  14. #94
    Quote Originally Posted by Dev11 View Post
    OF, I hope when you say you don't like WAR that you're dismissing offensive WAR, which is a pretty cut-and-dry reflection of the value a player has given. Defensive WAR is shady but offensive and baserunning WAR are solid.
    WAR is the latest manifestation of the desire to find one, single number to encompass a player's value. I admire the quest, but like Einstein's search for a unified Field Theory, we ain't there yet.

    I have a lot of problems with WAR, but I agree that offensive WAR is probably the most reliable of the components (although it's no better than OPS), while defensive WAR is the weakest. But what about the factors that go into pitching WAR? And does pitching WAR compare to WAR for position players?

    There's another problem with WAR -- different sites come up with different WAR calculations. That doesn't happen with batting average or OPS or ERA. How reliable can the stat be when the numbers aren't universal?

    Last year, when we were debating the next class of Hall of Famers, I read one normally astute commentator who used WAR to dismiss Jack Morris as a serious candidate. That got me looking at historical WAR to see how well it describes the real world. Well, I found dozens of difficulties -- I guess the most outrageous was that Rich Reuschel had a higher career WAR that Bob Feller. I can go throw every traditional stat and show you point by point how Feller was the superior pitcher ... but it would be a waste of time. Does anybody seriously think Reuschel was anywhere near as valuable over the course of his career as Feller?

    Another problem I have is with negative defensive WAR numbers. A guy like Miggy Cabrera would have a higher career WAR if he was a career DH. He gets penalized for his years at third base. Same with Derek Jeter at shortstop. It's true that both are subpar defensively at their positions (although Jeter does have five gold gloves). But in the real world, aren't they more valuable playing difficult defensive positions in the field and allowing their teams to deploy other strong hitters at the less difficult defensive positions? The Cabrera Tigers and the Jeter Yankees have been pretty darn successful.

    Of course, the craziest numbers are defensive WAR ... I do think Simmons is a great defensive SS, but was he better last year than Ozzie was in his best year? In 2011, the best defensive WAR in the game belonged to Brett Gardner -- the guy was a leftfielder! True, he was a centerfielder playing left, but he had a better defensive WAR than Willie Mays in his best season. He had more defensive valuable than Brooks or Ozzie in all but one of two seasons. And with all that value, he didn't win the gold glove (it went to Alex Gordon).

    That's crazy.

    OBP and OPS relate directly to runs scored. ERA is clearly an effective measure of a pitchers' performance better than wins and losses -- and better than WHIP*. But while WAR sometimes reflects the real world, it's a very imperfect measure. That's why I wouldn't use it to argue that Mike Trout deserved the MVP in Miggy's Triple Crown year (as many stat-heads did) and I wouldn't use it to bash Jack Morris.

    * The Feller-Reuchel matchup demonstrates why ERA (or ERA plus which measures ERA independent of ballpark effect and the era) is a better tool than WHIP. Reuschel, because he had a low walk rate, winds up with a better WHIP than Feller, who walked a lot of people. Thus, Feller allowed more baserunners than Reuschel.

    But Feller also allowed significantly less runs that Reuschel. His raw ERA of 3.25 is better than Reuschel's 3.37 and his ERA plaus is 122 to Reuschel's 114. So even though he allowed more baserunners, Feller allowed less runs and isn't that the point of the exercise?

    Now you can argue that by dealing with more baserunners, Feller had to throw more pitches and that could have a long-term impact ... except that Feller threw significantly more innings than Reuschel. He also had significantly more wins and a significantly better winning percentage (although we know those are team-dependent stats).

    Obviously, WAR gives Reuschel a lot of credit for his superior WHIP (it's the only pitching stat that he beats Feller). Does he also get credit for his bat (Reuschel was a superior hitting pitcher)? Do those two stats make up for Feller's much, much more impressive pitching record? Apparently, it does for WAR.

    Now, I don't mean to knock Reuschel, who was a fine pitcher. And I don't mean to dismiss WHIP, which is a good tool. I'm just saying that we need to keep everything in its proper order. Feller>Reuschel not matter what WAR says. And ERA>WHIP.
    Last edited by Olympic Fan; 04-22-2014 at 01:26 PM.

  15. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    WAR is the latest manifestation of the desire to find one, single number to encompass a player's value. I admire the quest, but like Einstein's search for a unified Field Theory, we ain't there yet.

    I have a lot of problems with WAR, but I agree that offensive WAR is probably the most reliable of the components (although it's no better than OPS), while defensive WAR is the weakest. But what about the factors that go into pitching WAR? And does pitching WAR compare to WAR for position players?

    There's another problem with WAR -- different sites come up with different WAR calculations. That doesn't happen with batting average or OPS or ERA. How reliable can the stat be when the numbers aren't universal?

    Last year, when we were debating the next class of Hall of Famers, I read one normally astute commentator who used WAR to dismiss Jack Morris as a serious candidate. That got me looking at historical WAR to see how well it describes the real world. Well, I found dozens of difficulties -- I guess the most outrageous was that Rich Reuschel had a higher career WAR that Bob Feller. I can go throw every traditional stat and show you point by point how Feller was the superior pitcher ... but it would be a waste of time. Does anybody seriously think Reuschel was anywhere near as valuable over the course of his career as Feller?

    Another problem I have is with negative defensive WAR numbers. A guy like Miggy Cabrera would have a higher career WAR if he was a career DH. He gets penalized for his years at third base. Same with Derek Jeter at shortstop. It's true that both are subpar defensively at their positions (although Jeter does have five gold gloves). But in the real world, aren't they more valuable playing difficult defensive positions in the field and allowing their teams to deploy other strong hitters at the less difficult defensive positions? The Cabrera Tigers and the Jeter Yankees have been pretty darn successful.

    Of course, the craziest numbers are defensive WAR ... I do think Simmons is a great defensive SS, but was he better last year than Ozzie was in his best year? In 2011, the best defensive WAR in the game belonged to Brett Gardner -- the guy was a leftfielder! True, he was a centerfielder playing left, but he had a better defensive WAR than Willie Mays in his best season. He had more defensive valuable than Brooks or Ozzie in all but one of two seasons. And with all that value, he didn't win the gold glove (it went to Alex Gordon).

    That's crazy.

    OBP and OPS relate directly to runs scored. ERA is clearly an effective measure of a pitchers' performance better than wins and losses -- and better than WHIP*. But while WAR sometimes reflects the real world, it's a very imperfect measure. That's why I wouldn't use it to argue that Mike Trout deserved the MVP in Miggy's Triple Crown year (as many stat-heads did) and I wouldn't use it to bash Jack Morris.

    * The Feller-Reuchel matchup demonstrates why ERA (or ERA plus which measures ERA independent of ballpark effect and the era) is a better tool than WHIP. Reuschel, because he had a low walk rate, winds up with a better WHIP than Feller, who walked a lot of people. Thus, Feller allowed more baserunners than Reuschel.

    But Feller also allowed significantly less runs that Reuschel. His raw ERA of 3.25 is better than Reuschel's 3.37 and his ERA plaus is 122 to Reuschel's 114. So even though he allowed more baserunners, Feller allowed less runs and isn't that the point of the exercise?

    Now you can argue that by dealing with more baserunners, Feller had to throw more pitches and that could have a long-term impact ... except that Feller threw significantly more innings than Reuschel. He also had significantly more wins and a significantly better winning percentage (although we know those are team-dependent stats).

    Obviously, WAR gives Reuschel a lot of credit for his superior WHIP (it's the only pitching stat that he beats Feller). Does he also get credit for his bat (Reuschel was a superior hitting pitcher)? Do those two stats make up for Feller's much, much more impressive pitching record? Apparently, it does for WAR.

    Now, I don't mean to knock Reuschel, who was a fine pitcher. And I don't mean to dismiss WHIP, which is a good tool. I'm just saying that we need to keep everything in its proper order. Feller>Reuschel not matter what WAR says. And ERA>WHIP.
    One more thing about Reuschel: he was not only a good hitter, he was also a very good fielder. I haven't looked up his metrics, but I remember him being surprisingly quick on his feet for such a big guy.

    I was watching a Jays game last week pitched by Mark Buehrle. The guy must have saved five hits by spearing balls hit up the middle that most pitchers don't get.

  16. #96
    Quote Originally Posted by rasputin View Post
    One more thing about Reuschel: he was not only a good hitter, he was also a very good fielder. I haven't looked up his metrics, but I remember him being surprisingly quick on his feet for such a big guy.
    That's a good point ... actually I was just looking at the two guys and I think I overstated Reuschel's edge as a hitter -- he had a career .163 BA and a career .419 P{S. Geller had a career .151 BA and a career .425 OPS.

    Both were plus-15 in OPS-plus -- exactly the same.

    Funny, I had the impression that Reuschel was a better hitter than that.

    But Reuchel does have an edge when it comes to fielding -- although I can't find the notoriously ineffective defensive War numbers for either. Both pitchers are above league average in fielding percentage and Reuschel had a far superior range factor compared to the league average (looking at range factor per nine innings).

    But one thing I wonder about -- could Feller's range factor be low because his strikeout rate was so much higher? In fact, he had one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball history -- much higher than Resuchel. That would certainly limit the number of ground balls he had access to.

    Either way, an edge in fielding prowess doesn't come close to making up for Feller's superiority as a pitcher. I stand by my point that the Reuschel/Feller case illusttates the unreliability of WAR.

  17. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    That's a good point ... actually I was just looking at the two guys and I think I overstated Reuschel's edge as a hitter -- he had a career .163 BA and a career .419 P{S. Geller had a career .151 BA and a career .425 OPS.

    Both were plus-15 in OPS-plus -- exactly the same.

    Funny, I had the impression that Reuschel was a better hitter than that.

    But Reuchel does have an edge when it comes to fielding -- although I can't find the notoriously ineffective defensive War numbers for either. Both pitchers are above league average in fielding percentage and Reuschel had a far superior range factor compared to the league average (looking at range factor per nine innings).

    But one thing I wonder about -- could Feller's range factor be low because his strikeout rate was so much higher? In fact, he had one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball history -- much higher than Resuchel. That would certainly limit the number of ground balls he had access to.

    Either way, an edge in fielding prowess doesn't come close to making up for Feller's superiority as a pitcher. I stand by my point that the Reuschel/Feller case illusttates the unreliability of WAR.
    You'd think that the range factor thing would account for this possibility. Obviously Feller struck out lots of guys, and Reuschel didn't.

    Re: Reuschel's hitting, I had the same impression. It's odd. He had 4 years in a row ('74-'77) with a BA above .200, and he hit .241 as a Pirate in 1984. The rest of his years' BA's are well under .200.

  18. #98
    Quote Originally Posted by rasputin View Post
    You'd think that the range factor thing would account for this possibility. Obviously Feller struck out lots of guys, and Reuschel didn't.

    Re: Reuschel's hitting, I had the same impression. It's odd. He had 4 years in a row ('74-'77) with a BA above .200, and he hit .241 as a Pirate in 1984. The rest of his years' BA's are well under .200.
    Range factor doesn't account for opportunities ... it merely measures plays made -- usually expressed per game or per nine-innings (which makes more sense when we're talking about pitchers).

    The kind of pitchers a team has can have a huge impact on range factor. Bill James once wrote an essay exploring the odd fact that Richie Ashburn had a much higher range factor in the '50s (a career 3.02 in CF) than Willie Mays (a career 2.67 in CF). Did Ashburn really have more range than Mays? Asburn also had a slightly better fielding percentage and a slightly higher assist rate. Does that mean Asburn was a better defensive centerfielder than Willie Mays?

    James argued that Asburn's range numbers were inflated by the number of fly-ball pitchers on the Phillies staff through most of his tenure ... while Mays' number were deflated by a combination of high strikeout and ground ball pitchers. He suggested that Mays' assists were deflated by the simple fact that after his first few years (when he had his highest assist rates), very few baserunners would challenge his arm. That also happened to guys like Joe DiMaggio and Roberto Clemente, who had great arms -- but posted their best assist rates early in their careers.

    Now, defensive WAR is supposed to take all that into account. In the Asburn-Mays case it does -- Asburn's career defensive WAR is 5.3 (less than Simmons last year) ... Mays career defensive WAR is 18.1.

    That doesn't mean I accept defensive WAR, but it is on the right track in this case.

  19. #99
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Pujols hits his 500th home run. Man, and I was going to tomorrow night's game to see the best young talent in baseball, and also Bryce Harper.

  20. #100
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    About 150 feet in front of the Duke Chapel doors.
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    Pujols hits his 500th home run. Man, and I was going to tomorrow night's game to see the best young talent in baseball, and also Bryce Harper.
    You have regularly flirted with the trolling line, and this is yet the latest example. You know that there are Nats fans and Harper fans that read these boards, so if you weren't trolling, be aware that your jab here is not appreciated.
    JBDuke

    Andre Dawkins: “People ask me if I can still shoot, and I ask them if they can still breathe. That’s kind of the same thing.”

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