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  1. #1

    Duke in ACC Tournament and NCAA Tournament -- just the facts

    Here are Duke's stats from the last 10 ACC Tournaments:

    year/seed/expected exit round from seeding/actual exit round/+/- or even achievement

    2005/3 seed/3rd round/4th round champs/+1
    2006/1 seed/4th round/4th round champs/even
    2007/7 seed/2nd round/1st round/-1
    2008/2 seed/3rd round/3rd round/+1
    2009/3 seed/3rd round/4th round champs/+1
    2010/1 seed/4th round/4th round champs/even
    2011/2 seed/4th round/4th round champs/even
    2012/2 seed/4th round/3rd round/-1
    2013/2 seed/4th round/2nd round/-2
    2014/3 seed/third round/4th round lost/+1

    In the past 10 ACC tournaments ...

    4 times Duke has outperformed seeding (2005, 2008, 2009, 2014)
    3 times it has performed to seeding (2006, 2010, 2011)
    3 times it has failed to perform to seeding (2007, 2012, 2013).
    Only 1 time has Duke failed to perform to seeding by two rounds (2013)

    In sum: 70% of the last 10 ACC tournaments Duke has performed at, or exceeded its seeding. 5 championships. Only 1 time has it failed to perform to seeding by two rounds.

    Here are Duke's stats from the last 10 NCAA tournaments:

    year/seed/expected exit round from seeding/actual exit round/+/- or even achievement

    2005/1 seed/5th round/3rd round/-2
    2006/1 seed/5th round/3rd round/-2
    2007/6 seed/2nd round/first round/-1
    2008/2 seed/4th round/2nd round/-2
    2009/2 seed/4th round/3rd round/-1
    2010/1 seed/5th round/champs/+1
    2011/1 seed/5th round/third round/-2
    2012/2 seed/4th round/first round/-3
    2013/2 seed/4th round/fourth round/even
    2014/3 seed/third round/first round/-2

    1 time Duke has outperformed seeding (2010)
    1 time Duke has performed to seeding (2013)
    8 times Duke has failed to perform to seeding (05,06,07,08,09,11,12,14)
    6 of these 8 times Duke has failed to perform to seeding by two or more rounds (05,06,08,11,12,14)

    In sum: In the last 10 NCAA tournaments, only 20% of the time has Duke performed at, or exceeded, seeding. 1 National Championship. 80% of the time it has failed to perform to seeding. 60% of these 10 years it has failed to perform to seeding by two or more rounds

    Though my affection for Duke basketball doesn't vary from the ACC tournament to the NCAAs, over the past ten years Duke's performance to seeding varies wildly from the ACC tournament to the NCAAs. Furthermore, with the exception of 2010, for whatever the reasons, Duke has underperformed to seeding in the NCAAs for the past decade.

    I'm grateful for this great year and proud to be a Duke fan. Hope reigns eternal for the next campaign.

  2. #2

    Early Departures and Injuries

    I believe are the cause(s).

  3. #3
    It's hard to over achieve when you are seeded one or two so many times. You can't say a 1 seed is "expected" to get to the National championship game. What you really need to compare it to is the average performance of that particular seed. I think I recall somebody putting that together on this site actually. A 1 seed probably averages 3.5 wins a tournament or something like that...still may not look great, but not nearly as bad as the above looks.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Summit County, Colo.
    I'm pretty happy they don't play NCAA Tournament games on someone's IBM PC XT, even though that might make us better off. Otherwise no one below an 8 seed would ever win and only 1-seeds would make the Final Four. Actually we tried that last thing once, it kinda sucked.

  5. #5
    And in the 1986 to 1994 nine-year run of 7 Final Fours in 9 years, and 5 national championship games in 9 years -- when so much of the modern public consciousness of Duke was formed -- we under-performed seed exactly once (1993). I'm guessing that run of over-performance is much more of an outlier than the recent 10-year run of under-performing seed.

    And, given the over-performance came first, it makes the more recent relative under-performance somehow feel worse.

    In other words, a 10-year run involving 4 #1 seeds, 4 #2 seeds, a #3 and #6, with a national championship ... followed by a 9-year run of 7 FFs, 5 NC games, and 2 NCs ... would somehow feel "better" than what we've had: crazy over-performance followed by a run of very, very good teams/years/performance.

    Look at UNC who hasn't even made the tourney a couple times recently. Or a big athletic school like VT who has made 2 NCAA tourneys in 25 years. Or SMU, who gathered this year to watch the selection show and had a party planned. Or Maryland, who got left out of the NIT. That's why every year, towards the end of the regular season, I try to gauge when we've done enough to have earned an NCAA bid --- when, even if we lost the rest of our regular season games and bowed out in the first round of the ACC Tourney, we'd still get invited to the dance. And to recognize that moment and celebrate it.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Reilly View Post
    And, given the over-performance came first, it makes the more recent relative under-performance somehow feel worse.

    In other words, a 10-year run involving 4 #1 seeds, 4 #2 seeds, a #3 and #6, with a national championship ... followed by a 9-year run of 7 FFs, 5 NC games, and 2 NCs ... would somehow feel "better" than what we've had: crazy over-performance followed by a run of very, very good teams/years/performance.
    Agreed the 1986-1994 run established a standard that could not be matched. If there is any upside to the declining success of the program over various periods (1986-1994/1998-2004/2007-present), it will lower expectations for whomever follows Coach K in the next 3-5 years.

    After Coach Wooden went out with his 10th national championship in 12 seasons, a significant portion of the UCLA fan base could not get its collective mind around the fact that no subsequent coach could remotely match that level of achievement. If Coach K had left Duke after the 1994 season, the expectations for his successor at that time probably would have been much higher and unattainable than for whomever does take over. Hopefully that day will come later rather than sooner.

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