Originally Posted by
CameronBornAndBred
With an August release, it better have the best opening weekend ever.
Will movie goers hit a Marvel wall? Cap2, Spidey, X-Men, and Guardians, talk about saturating the market.
Well, I dunno about the "best opening ever" but the history on August releases is not great. Only one August release in history has made $230 million, which seems to be about the level most of us think will need to be reached to be in the Top 5. Of course, part of that is inflation as some of the movies I am about to list would easily pass $250 mil in present day dollars if we adjust for inflation.
- The Sixth Sense (8/6/99) - $293.5 mil on a $26.8 mil opening... talk about word of mouth powering a film for a big boxoffice run!!
- Signs (8/2/02) - $227.9 mil on a $60.1 mil opening... remember when M Night wasn't boxoffice poison?
- Bourne Ultimatum (8/3/07) - $227.4 mil on a $69.2 mil opening
- Rush Hour 2 (8/3/01) - $226.1 mil on a $67.4 mil opening
- The Fugitive (8/6/93) - $183.8 mil on a $23.7 mil opening
- Rise of the Planet of the Apes (8/5/11) - $176.7 mil on a $54.8 mil opening
- The Help (8/10/11) - $169.7 mil on a $26 mil opening
- We're The Millers (8/7/13) - $150.3 mil on a $26.4 mil opening
That's the list of the top August releases.
But, Guardians opens on August 1 and there have been some big movies in late(ish) July too. If we look at the last weekend of July as being almost the same as an August 1 release, then we can add the following films to the list.
Austin Powers in Goldmember (7/26/02) - $213.3 mil on a $73 mil opening
The Simpsons Movie (7/27/07) - $183.1 mil on a $74 mil opening
Planet of the Apes (Marky Mark edition) (7/27/01) - $180 mil on a $68.5 mil opening
Air Force One (7/25/97) - $172.9 mil on a $37.1 mil opening
Still, it is clear that late-July and August movies face a real uphill climb. I won't be all that surprised if Guardians sets a new August opening weekend record (Bourne Ultimatum's $69.2 is the current leader) but even with an opening in the $70 mil range, getting to $225+ million is going to be a challenge. Lots of kids go back to school by the second week of August and mid-week numbers tend to really dry up.
Still, the trailers look very solid and (despite the Marvel name) this does not feel like just another superhero movie. If you think of it as an outer space adventure like Star Trek or Star Wars then there is not much competition this summer. Jupiter Ascending is the only other one of those on tap for this summer... though it you expand the genre to include all sci-fi (non-comic book hero movies) then you add Transformers, Dawn of the Apes, Edge of Tomorrow, and perhaps even Earth to Echo.
Bottom line -- Guardians is probably still a longshot. I suspect Marvel and Disney will be quite pleased if it makes $175 mil or more at the domestic boxoffice. That would be a very nice success for a non-sequel without big stars.
-Jason "I also want to let Duvall and all the other fans of my reviews (all 3 of you) know that I am seeing XMDOFP tonight and will try to post a review in the next 24-36 hours" Evans