#1 Seed Predictions

[ice-9]

My understanding is that Duke is out of contention for a 1-seed. We have 7 losses which is the most ever for a 1-seed (Michigan State a few years back), but we also have two bad losses in Notre Dame and Wake Forest. The chance we get a 1-seed even if we win out is small.

Don't most brackets have us as a 3-seed? Meaning our upside is getting to a 2-seed.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

At this point, I'm rooting for Villanova to keep winning and get the last 1 seed to keep them off the 2 seed line. That gives Duke more paths to MSG since 'Nova's geo-preference would also be New York.

Of course, mostly, I just want Duke to win the ACC. Do that and let the chips fall where they may.

Yes, my preference for Duke is to be in the East Regional too, regardless of being seeded 1,2, or 3. To make that happen, we need to win the ACCT. I think that will ensure preference over Syracuse and VA.

My 2nd choice would be the MW region with Wichita State as the #1 seed.

And as soon as the brackets drop on Sunday evening, the first top 8 seed upset I'm writing down is whoever plays 'Nova in the round of 32. Not impressed with them.

My #1 predictions for Sunday are:

South - Florida
MW - Wichita State
West - AZ
East - Villanova

[superdave]

Yes, my preference for Duke is to be in the East Regional too, regardless of being seeded 1,2, or 3. To make that happen, we need to win the ACCT. I think that will ensure preference over Syracuse and VA.

My 2nd choice would be the MW region with Wichita State as the #1 seed.

And as soon as the brackets drop on Sunday evening, the first top 8 seed upset I'm writing down is whoever plays 'Nova in the round of 32. Not impressed with them.

My #1 predictions for Sunday are:

South - Florida
MW - Wichita State
West - AZ
East - Villanova

If Virginia wins the ACCT, they should be a #1 seed - way more so that Nova. If Duke wins the ACCT by beating Syracuse and Virginia, they could get to a 1-seed with help. This season, no one is helping themselves down the stretch.

It's way premature to put Villanova in that spot. They may wind up with a 1, but there's a lot of basketball to be played this week.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

If Virginia wins the ACCT, they should be a #1 seed - way more so that Nova. If Duke wins the ACCT by beating Syracuse and Virginia, they could get to a 1-seed with help. This season, no one is helping themselves down the stretch.

It's way premature to put Villanova in that spot. They may wind up with a 1, but there's a lot of basketball to be played this week.

You're right there is A LOT of basketball left to be played, and the way the top 10 keeps losing(with the exception of WSU and Fla), I don't think any of the seed lines have been set with the exception of Fla and WSU on the top line.

In a way, this is a worst case scenario for the Committee because they have proven to be somewhat unreliable in what criteria they use to award seeding to teams. With the lines blurred between a team like Villanova(not that impressive but few losses) and a team like MSU(several losses, but dealing with injuries and tough conference schedule), the seeding could be far different than what the "experts" and many of us are predicting.

But, the thread is titled "#1 Seed Predictions" so I was just giving my prediction on what I thought might happen.

BTW, I also agree that if VA wins the reg. season and the ACCT, they should be a #1 seed over Villanova, but if the Cavs fail to get a 1, it wouldn't be the first time an ACC 2x champion hasn't been given a 1 seed(Miami 2013).

[Troublemaker]

Bracket Matrix with a morning update today.

Right now, their overall bracket rankings look like this:

1. Arizona
2. Florida (I think in real life, they would be 1. Arizona being ahead is an alphabetical thing).
3. Wichita St
4. Villanova
---------------
5. Kansas
6. Wisconsin
7. Michigan
8. Virginia
--------------
9. Syracuse
10. Duke
11. Creighton
12. Iowa St

So, if we're hoping for MSG, the easy way for it to happen:
1. Duke wins the ACC to move ahead of UVA and Cuse.
2. Villanova wins the Big East tournament to take the final 1 seed.
3. One of Kansas, Wisconsin, or Michigan needs to suffer a semifinals or earlier loss in their conference tourney so Duke can move ahead.

Let's say #1 and #2 happen and for #3, it's Michigan that bows out early. Then Kansas will get the South region, Wisconsin will get the MidWest region, and Duke should get the East region as a #2 seed to Villanova's #1.

[InSpades]

Yes, my preference for Duke is to be in the East Regional too, regardless of being seeded 1,2, or 3. To make that happen, we need to win the ACCT. I think that will ensure preference over Syracuse and VA.

My 2nd choice would be the MW region with Wichita State as the #1 seed.

And as soon as the brackets drop on Sunday evening, the first top 8 seed upset I'm writing down is whoever plays 'Nova in the round of 32. Not impressed with them.

My #1 predictions for Sunday are:

South - Florida
MW - Wichita State
West - AZ
East - Villanova

Villanova is a weak #1 if they get it. They are 1-3 vs. top 25 RPI teams right now. Of course that means their only losses are to top 25 RPI teams (which is great) but only having 1 top 25 win all year is tough.

Wichita St. is 3-0 vs. the RPI top 50. As a comparison... Kansas has played 19 top 50 RPI teams.

These are some of the weakest #1 seeds ever I would say. Not 1 of them played in a top 3 conference (and perhaps that's why they are still considered #1 seeds).

[Atlanta Duke]

Let's say #1 and #2 happen and for #3, it's Michigan that bows out early. Then Kansas will get the South region, Wisconsin will get the MidWest region, and Duke should get the East region as a #2 seed to Villanova's #1.

Lunardi agrees this morning on Villanova #1 and Duke #2 in the East. Fills out the top of the East Bracket with Iowa State at #3 and Louisville at #4.

He also has Kansas at #2, but in the Midwest with #1 Wichita State (I can see the committee wanting that matchup). Finishes up with #1 Arizona together with #2 Wisconsin in the West plus #1 Florida and #2 Michigan in the South.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

I like that scenario a lot better than USA Today's bracket, which still has Duke at #3 in the South with Florida #1 and Kansas #2

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...ology/6228743/

[CDu]

Villanova is a weak #1 if they get it. They are 1-3 vs. top 25 RPI teams right now. Of course that means their only losses are to top 25 RPI teams (which is great) but only having 1 top 25 win all year is tough.

Wichita St. is 3-0 vs. the RPI top 50. As a comparison... Kansas has played 19 top 50 RPI teams.

These are some of the weakest #1 seeds ever I would say. Not 1 of them played in a top 3 conference (and perhaps that's why they are still considered #1 seeds).

Yeah, I really don't feel that Villanova has earned a top seed. They'll probably get one, but I don't think they deserve it.

As you said, they are just 1-3 against the RPI top-25. They are just 5-3 against the top-50. And those 3 losses were blowout losses.

Basically, they've fattened up their schedule by beating a bunch of 51-150 teams (13-0 against that group). But compare their resume to the following teams:

Wisconsin: #3 SOS, #6 RPI, 25-6, 5-2 vs RPI top-25, 8-4 vs top 50, 15-5 vs top-100, and 21-6 vs top-150
Kansas: #3 RPI, #1 SOS, 23-8, 6-3 vs top-25, 12-7 vs top-50, 16-8 vs top-100, 20-8 vs top-150
Duke: #7 RPI, #8 SOS, 24-7, 5-4 vs top-25, 6-4 vs top-50, 10-5 vs top-100, 17-7 vs top-100

Basically, it is just crazy to me that Villanova will get a #1 seed despite getting blown out by 3 of the 4 top-25 teams they have played. They're getting that seed simply because they happened to beat a bunch of teams that aren't going to make the tournament. Meanwhile Duke, Kansas, and Wisconsin (heck, even Syracuse) all have substantially better resumes against tournament-caliber teams. They are getting penalized for having one or two slip-ups against weak teams, whereas Villanova is not getting penalized for avoiding good teams and looking bad against most of few good teams they've faced.

Basically, I either want Villanova to win the "Big East" and get the East #1 with us as their #2, or I want them to lose the Big East tournament and fall to a #2 or #3 like they probably deserve.

[Black Mambo]

Wisconsin: #3 SOS, #6 RPI, 25-6, 5-2 vs RPI top-25, 8-4 vs top 50, 15-5 vs top-100, and 21-6 vs top-150
Kansas: #3 RPI, #1 SOS, 23-8, 6-3 vs top-25, 12-7 vs top-50, 16-8 vs top-100, 20-8 vs top-150
Duke: #7 RPI, #8 SOS, 24-7, 5-4 vs top-25, 6-4 vs top-50, 10-5 vs top-100, 17-7 vs top-100

Unfortunately, assuming all 3 win out, it's also hard to [objectively] argue that Duke should get the last 1 seed based upon that 3 way comparison.

[TexHawk]

He also has Kansas at #2, but in the Midwest with #1 Wichita State (I can see the committee wanting that matchup).

The problem with this prediction is that it actively goes against the committee's rules on geography. KU's preferred region by distance is the South, as Memphis is closer to Lawrence. (The South would be WSU's preferred region too, for the same reason, but Florida is ahead of them right now.) The only way KU would get to Indy is if a non-Florida team near Memphis gets in ahead of KU, which probably means both Duke AND UVA would need to pass them. One of those two would get the East #2 (or #1), then the other would get the South #2. I suppose that's not out of the realm of possibility, if KU loses to OSU on Thursday, and Duke/UVA advance to the ACC finals. But then you've got to worry about Wisconsin/Michigan for Indy too, since that is their preferred region.

Or WSU passes Florida for the overall #1, sending them to Memphis too. Then it makes sense.

I love/hate this time of year.

[freshmanjs]

The problem with this prediction is that it actively goes against the committee's rules on geography. KU's preferred region by distance is the South, as Memphis is closer to Lawrence. (The South would be WSU's preferred region too, for the same reason, but Florida is ahead of them right now.) The only way KU would get to Indy is if a non-Florida team near Memphis gets in ahead of KU, which probably means both Duke AND UVA would need to pass them. One of those two would get the East #2 (or #1), then the other would get the South #2. I suppose that's not out of the realm of possibility, if KU loses to OSU on Thursday, and Duke/UVA advance to the ACC finals. But then you've got to worry about Wisconsin/Michigan for Indy too, since that is their preferred region.

Or WSU passes Florida for the overall #1, sending them to Memphis too. Then it makes sense.

I love/hate this time of year.

indy is closer for duke than memphis

[CDu]

Unfortunately, assuming all 3 win out, it's also hard to [objectively] argue that Duke should get the last 1 seed based upon that 3 way comparison.

Oh I agree. Our #1 seed ship has probably sailed, unless some really crazy stuff happens this weekend. I was just using the consensus #2 seeds as a point of reference for where Villanova should be.

[Kedsy]

9. Syracuse
10. Duke

I know it doesn't really matter, but how could Duke possibly be behind Syracuse? They have fewer losses than we do, but we are ahead of them in every other conceivable measure, including both human polls and computer rankings. (We even have fewer bad losses since mid-February.)

[flyingdutchdevil]

Oh I agree. Our #1 seed ship has probably sailed, unless some really crazy stuff happens this weekend. I was just using the consensus #2 seeds as a point of reference for where Villanova should be.

Duke has 7 losses. Kansas has 8 losses.

Just out of curiosity, does anyone know the last time a 1 seed had more than 7 losses? The closest I could find was Mich St in 2012. They had 7 losses. And that's the only team in the last 10 years who was a 1-seed with more than 6 losses.

Because of this, I think the ship has certainly sailed for Kansas, despite a strong RPI and SOS. It's tough to justify 8 losses and still get a 1 seed. Duke, IMO, has a tiny chance of getting a 1-seed, even if 'Nova, Wisconsin, and Louisville all lose early in their tourneys and Duke wins it outright.

My 1-seeds: FL, WSU, UA, and Nova. Why Nova? Cus I think they have the easiest path to be tourney winners, even if McBuckets stands in their way.

[CDu]

I know it doesn't really matter, but how could Duke possibly be behind Syracuse? They have fewer losses than we do, but we are ahead of them in every other conceivable measure, including both human polls and computer rankings. (We even have fewer bad losses since mid-February.)

It seems to be entirely based on both teams' resumes against the top-level competition. Syracuse is 7-2 against the top-50 compared to our 6-4. Syracuse is also 19-3 against the top-150 compared to our 17-7.

So it comes down to what the committee values most in determining the top-12 seeds: success against tournament teams, or overall success.

[CDu]

Duke has 7 losses. Kansas has 8 losses.

Just out of curiosity, does anyone know the last time a 1 seed had more than 7 losses? The closest I could find was Mich St in 2012. They had 7 losses. And that's the only team in the last 10 years who was a 1-seed with more than 6 losses.

Because of this, I think the ship has certainly sailed for Kansas, despite a strong RPI and SOS. It's tough to justify 8 losses and still get a 1 seed. Duke, IMO, has a tiny chance of getting a 1-seed, even if 'Nova, Wisconsin, and Louisville all lose early in their tourneys and Duke wins it outright.

My 1-seeds: FL, WSU, UA, and Nova. Why Nova? Cus I think they have the easiest path to be tourney winners, even if McBuckets stands in their way.

I don't think it really matters in this case whether a team has been a #1 seed with as many as 8 losses. It just matters whether that 8-loss team has a better resume than the other options this year.

Frankly, I think that Kansas has the best resume of the teams not named Wichita St, Arizona, or Florida. Their schedule was just ridiculously tough, with only 7 games against teams outside the RPI top-100 (and just 3 against teams outside the top-150).

But if Villanova stumbles in the Big East tourney and Wisconsin and UVa stub their toes as well while Kansas goes on to win the Big 12 tourney, I think you'd be hard-pressed not to give them the last #1 seed.

[TexHawk]

Duke has 7 losses. Kansas has 8 losses.

Just out of curiosity, does anyone know the last time a 1 seed had more than 7 losses? The closest I could find was Mich St in 2012. They had 7 losses. And that's the only team in the last 10 years who was a 1-seed with more than 6 losses.

Because of this, I think the ship has certainly sailed for Kansas, despite a strong RPI and SOS. It's tough to justify 8 losses and still get a 1 seed. Duke, IMO, has a tiny chance of getting a 1-seed, even if 'Nova, Wisconsin, and Louisville all lose early in their tourneys and Duke wins it outright.

Yes, it is technically true that no 8 loss team has received a #1 seed. But it would be interesting to see if any 8-loss teams were ever really close to one. KU played a really tough non-con (toughest in at least 5 years, according to KP), and then won the top rated RPI conference by two games. One of those 8 losses was without our 1st or 2nd best player (depending on how you value big men defense and rebounding). KU has a head-to-head win over one of their competitors (Duke), and a loss to another (Nova). Last year the committee chair was quoted as saying they decided Indiana deserved a #1 seed first (though not overall #1), even though they lost in their conference quarterfinals, because they won the committee-deemed "best" conference outright.

Another way of looking at it... I don't think the selection committee has a guidebook that says "7 losses, they're ok... 8 losses? GTFO!" That's why they look at SOS adjusted numbers, as much as possible. If the other statistical measures are even, sure, it may be a deciding factor, but that's it (imo).

[flyingdutchdevil]

I don't think it really matters in this case whether a team has been a #1 seed with as many as 8 losses. It just matters whether that 8-loss team has a better resume than the other options this year.

Frankly, I think that Kansas has the best resume of the teams not named Wichita St, Arizona, or Florida. Their schedule was just ridiculously tough, with only 7 games against teams outside the RPI top-100 (and just 3 against teams outside the top-150).

But if Villanova stumbles in the Big East tourney and Wisconsin and UVa stub their toes as well while Kansas goes on to win the Big 12 tourney, I think you'd be hard-pressed not to give them the last #1 seed.

I don't disagree that Kansas has had the hardest schedule nor that they aren't deserving of a 1-seed. But deserving of a 1-seed and getting a 1-seed are two separate arguments. Gonzaga got a 1-seed last year, but were they really that deserving? WSU is both deserving of a 1-seed and will get a 1-seed, but they are more like a 3- or 4-seed talent than a 1-seed talent.

I think that big 8 number in the loss column will absolutely prevent Kansas from getting a 1-seed, even if they are deserving based on SOS and record against top RPI talent.

I think the only way that Kansas gets a 1 seed is ff every team in the 10 ten drops an early game in their respective conference tournies. However, I just don't see either Wisconsin, 'Nova, Louisville, or UVa not making at least the semi-finals, if not finals, or their conferences. If that happens, I see virtually no chance that Kansas becomes a 1-seed.

[Atlanta Duke]

It seems to be entirely based on both teams' resumes against the top-level competition. Syracuse is 7-2 against the top-50 compared to our 6-4. Syracuse is also 19-3 against the top-150 compared to our 17-7.

So it comes down to what the committee values most in determining the top-12 seeds: success against tournament teams, or overall success.

Also could be the issue of Syracuse being a different team when Grant is able to play

SI.com has Syracuse as a #2 in the East while Duke is #3 in the Midwest today. Villanova is holding on to the shakiest #1 seed for SI, along with the consensus of Florida, Arizona, and Wichita State as 1 seeds.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/col...ection-sunday/

I guess that could change if Duke gets to the ACC championship, which would mean Duke beats Syracuse this Saturday or Syracuse loses on Friday. In that case the winner of a UVA-Duke matchup if it happens could get a #2 in the East.

[TexHawk]

I think the only way that Kansas gets a 1 seed is ff every team in the 10 ten drops an early game in their respective conference tournies. However, I just don't see either Wisconsin, 'Nova, Louisville, or UVa not making at least the semi-finals, if not finals, or their conferences. If that happens, I see virtually no chance that Kansas becomes a 1-seed.

Louisville is probably the opposite example. They are likely a very good team that is playing like a #1 seed, but their horrific SOS and other numbers will keep them off the #1 line. Some have them as low as a 5 or 6, there are only a handful on bracket matrix that have them as high as a two.

I admit to being perplexed on some of this, because 7 days ago everybody on this board + Joey Donuts + Palm (I think) had KU as the likely fourth #1. In the 7 days since then... KU lost to WVU without Joel Embiid. Wisconsin lost to Big Red. Duke lost to Wake. Syracuse lost (at home) to Georgia Tech. UVA lost to Maryland. Michigan State lost to OSU. Arizona lost to Oregon. Unless there is a flashing "OMG 8 losses, we should just shoot them!" sign in the committee room in Indy this weekend, I don't see how anybody has anything locked in at this point. Outside of Florida and WSU, of course.

To be clear, I don't think KU deserves a #1. I only want a healthy team a week from today. I would take a low 2 or high 3 if you guaranteed that Embiid has no back trouble the rest of the year. If that requires us losing to OSU again this week, I will take it.