Embiid done? (Seeding implications)

[JasonEvans]

Joel Embiid has a stress fracture in his back and will miss the Big12 tourney as well as the first weekend of the NCAA tourney. At least, that is what Kansas is saying right now. My bet is that he will probably miss even more time than that, but Kansas wants to sound optimistic about him so the NCAA Selection Committee doesn't screw them on seeding. If they knew he would not be back this season, it probably downgrades Kansas severely. But, the prospect of him coming back could give the committee cover to still give Kansas a high seed.

Regardless, the selection committee has to punish Kansas, right? Lets say the Jayhawks lose in the first round of the Big 12 tourney, do you drop them to a #3 or even to a #4 seed? I suppose, if they win the Big 12 tourney, you could give them a #2 seed, but if their non-Embid results are not impressive, I think they have to be a #3 or lower.

In other seeding news, Lunardi (I know, I know -- he's just guessing) has his brackets set for a potential Duke (#2 in East) vs Stanford (#10 in East) game in the 2nd round of the tourney. Probably too delicious for the committee to not make that happen. Remember when K had to play Snyder at Mizzu a few years ago? This would be waaay worse for K, I suspect, as he thinks of Johnny as a son.

-Jason "we can merge this into one of the other seeding threads in a bit -- but I wanted the Embiid news to get some attention from the board for a little bit because it is quite significant" Evans

[FerryFor50]

Joel Embiid has a stress fracture in his back and will miss the Big12 tourney as well as the first weekend of the NCAA tourney. At least, that is what Kansas is saying right now. My bet is that he will probably miss even more time than that, but Kansas wants to sound optimistic about him so the NCAA Selection Committee doesn't screw them on seeding. If they knew he would not be back this season, it probably downgrades Kansas severely. But, the prospect of him coming back could give the committee cover to still give Kansas a high seed.

Regardless, the selection committee has to punish Kansas, right? Lets say the Jayhawks lose in the first round of the Big 12 tourney, do you drop them to a #3 or even to a #4 seed? I suppose, if they win the Big 12 tourney, you could give them a #2 seed, but if their non-Embid results are not impressive, I think they have to be a #3 or lower.

In other seeding news, Lunardi (I know, I know -- he's just guessing) has his brackets set for a potential Duke (#2 in East) vs Stanford (#10 in East) game in the 2nd round of the tourney. Probably too delicious for the committee to not make that happen. Remember when K had to play Snyder at Mizzu a few years ago? This would be waaay worse for K, I suspect, as he thinks of Johnny as a son.

-Jason "we can merge this into one of the other seeding threads in a bit -- but I wanted the Embiid news to get some attention from the board for a little bit because it is quite significant" Evans

Saw that article and thought two things:

1) he's likely done for the year, perhaps at KU altogether. Stress fracture in the back of a kid with an nba career ahead of him? Hard to believe he'd come back.

2) pretty irresponsible of the KU medical staff not to catch this sooner (lower back strain? Really???)

As far as seeding, this will hurt them. How much is unclear... But I doubt they win the big 12 tourny.

And they are now primed for an early exit in the NCAA.

[TexHawk]

Joel Embiid has a stress fracture in his back and will miss the Big12 tourney as well as the first weekend of the NCAA tourney. At least, that is what Kansas is saying right now. My bet is that he will probably miss even more time than that, but Kansas wants to sound optimistic about him so the NCAA Selection Committee doesn't screw them on seeding. If they knew he would not be back this season, it probably downgrades Kansas severely. But, the prospect of him coming back could give the committee cover to still give Kansas a high seed.

Perhaps I'm a bit sensitive tonight, but are you suggesting that Bill Self and KU should be sending a different message to the selection committee? Or should they say "you know what, screw it, give us a 5 seed and ship us out west, we clearly don't deserve anything better"?

Didn't Duke have this same situation in 2001 when Boozer went down with the broken foot? How did your coaching staff react publicly? (I honestly can't remember.)

[freshmanjs]

Perhaps I'm a bit sensitive tonight, but are you suggesting that Bill Self and KU should be sending a different message to the selection committee? Or should they say "you know what, screw it, give us a 5 seed and ship us out west, we clearly don't deserve anything better"?

Didn't Duke have this same situation in 2001 when Boozer went down with the broken foot? How did your coaching staff react publicly? (I honestly can't remember.)

1) I don't think Self is doing anything wrong, nor do I have any reason to doubt what Kansas is saying
2) Duke said Boozer could be back in 3 weeks and he was

[El_Diablo]

Perhaps I'm a bit sensitive tonight, but are you suggesting that Bill Self and KU should be sending a different message to the selection committee? Or should they say "you know what, screw it, give us a 5 seed and ship us out west, we clearly don't deserve anything better"?

Didn't Duke have this same situation in 2001 when Boozer went down with the broken foot? How did your coaching staff react publicly? (I honestly can't remember.)

After what the committee did to Cincinnati in 2000, it's perfectly valid to be overly optimistic in discussing injuries this time of year. Even once they are seeded, it would be much better to keep opponents guessing than to announce he's done for the year.

[Utley]

Perhaps I'm a bit sensitive tonight, but are you suggesting that Bill Self and KU should be sending a different message to the selection committee? Or should they say "you know what, screw it, give us a 5 seed and ship us out west, we clearly don't deserve anything better"?

Didn't Duke have this same situation in 2001 when Boozer went down with the broken foot? How did your coaching staff react publicly? (I honestly can't remember.)

Sorry about this news TexHawk. We know what its like to have injuries be a factor at this time of year. I hope he makes it back for the tournament. Whoever wins this year - you want to be the best team - not the best team but for an injury.

[TexHawk]

2) pretty irresponsible of the KU medical staff not to catch this sooner (lower back strain? Really???)

Whoa whoa whoa.

Embiid strained his back in the first WVU game, tried to play through it at K-State and was in a lot of pain. He sat out the next game against TCU, took a week off, and came back to dominate Texas Tech, Texas, and Oklahoma. Against Oklahoma State last Saturday, he injured his back again. Everyone publicly said it is was a re-aggravation of the same injury. Quietly, they scheduled a 2nd opinion in for Embiid in LA with a specialist, who confirmed their diagnosis of a stress fracture.

There are several reasons why you wouldn't go public with a possible stress fracture at this time of the year, the original post in this thread is exhibit A.

[FerryFor50]

Whoa whoa whoa.

Embiid strained his back in the first WVU game, tried to play through it at K-State and was in a lot of pain. He sat out the next game against TCU, took a week off, and came back to dominate Texas Tech, Texas, and Oklahoma. Against Oklahoma State last Saturday, he injured his back again. Everyone publicly said it is was a re-aggravation of the same injury. Quietly, they scheduled a 2nd opinion in for Embiid in LA with a specialist, who confirmed their diagnosis of a stress fracture.

There are several reasons why you wouldn't go public with a possible stress fracture at this time of the year, the original post in this thread is exhibit A.

Perhaps they were taking the cautious pr route, but I had heard reports they cleared him and it was Embiid that decided to get the 2nd opinion... Any truth to that from what you have heard?

[Kedsy]

Perhaps I'm a bit sensitive tonight, but are you suggesting that Bill Self and KU should be sending a different message to the selection committee? Or should they say "you know what, screw it, give us a 5 seed and ship us out west, we clearly don't deserve anything better"?

Didn't Duke have this same situation in 2001 when Boozer went down with the broken foot? How did your coaching staff react publicly? (I honestly can't remember.)

I think the Duke staff said the same thing Kansas is saying now (although in Duke's case in 2001, that statement turned out to be true). Very similar to what Syracuse said in 2010 when Onuaku was hurt (although he didn't play in the third round either, and if Syracuse had advanced beyond that I have my doubts about whether he would have played at all). After what happened to Cincinnati after the Kenyon Martin injury (in, I think, 2000), I can't imagine any team saying anything worse than "going to miss the first two rounds but hopefully will be back after that."

That suggests, however, that relying on Kansas' public statements regarding Embiid's future availability might not be wise if one wants to know what's really going on.

[TexHawk]

Perhaps they were taking the cautious pr route, but I had heard reports they cleared him and it was Embiid that decided to get the 2nd opinion... Any truth to that from what you have heard?

The family was involved, sure, there are potentially millions of dollars at stake. But I have heard nothing about the team clearing him so he could play through it. And, for the record, KU doesn't have a back specialist on staff. The athletic trainer does a quick pass and refers the injured player to a local hospital (usually KU Med), where x-rays and rehab is done. We are getting close to Occam's Razor here. That's a lot of people to be involved with a cover-up.

I suppose it won't stop the rival fans from assuming this was Bill Self orchestrating something, but let's be honest. If he puts the prospective #1 pick back on the floor with a diagnosed stress fracture and it doesn't get better or he re-injures it? He'd never be able to recruit a lottery-level player again.

[FerryFor50]

The family was involved, sure, there are potentially millions of dollars at stake. But I have heard nothing about the team clearing him so he could play through it. And, for the record, KU doesn't have a back specialist on staff. The athletic trainer does a quick pass and refers the injured player to a local hospital (usually KU Med), where x-rays and rehab is done. We are getting close to Occam's Razor here. That's a lot of people to be involved with a cover-up.

I suppose it won't stop the rival fans from assuming this was Bill Self orchestrating something, but let's be honest. If he puts the prospective #1 pick back on the floor with a diagnosed stress fracture and it doesn't get better or he re-injures it? He'd never be able to recruit a lottery-level player again.

I never said there was a cover up. Just incompetence.

(Not that it's any better)

[UrinalCake]

There is absolutely no reason to disclose the extent of a player's injury. Why would you? So your fans know what to expect? Aside from that, you gain nothing except being penalized with a lower seed. It's not like in the NFL where you are required to disclose an injury report and can be fined for being consistently dishonest about it.

[freshmanjs]

There is absolutely no reason to disclose the extent of a player's injury. Why would you? So your fans know what to expect? Aside from that, you gain nothing except being penalized with a lower seed. It's not like in the NFL where you are required to disclose an injury report and can be fined for being consistently dishonest about it.

Agree. However, I think all coaches would try to signal any potential good news to the committee. Kyrie warming up at the ACC tournament was probably intended as a signal that he would be ready soon. Not misleading in any way since he was ready to go the next week. But, Duke wanted the committee to know he was close.

[OZ]

Remember when K had to play Snyder at Mizzu a few years ago?
-Jason "we can merge this into one of the other seeding threads in a bit -- but I wanted the Embiid news to get some attention from the board for a little bit because it is quite significant" Evans

My mind is going fast, but I don't recall K playing against Quinn AT Mizzu. My only recollection of K vs Snyder was in the East Regionals in 2001 and that game was in Greensboro, NC. Seems like I was there.

[Atlanta Duke]

Perhaps I'm a bit sensitive tonight, but are you suggesting that Bill Self and KU should be sending a different message to the selection committee? Or should they say "you know what, screw it, give us a 5 seed and ship us out west, we clearly don't deserve anything better"?

Sorry this may be worse than initially thought. DBR posters know the joys of dealing with injuries in March - in addition to the Carlos Boozer injury Duke had to deal with Jay Williams severely spraining his ankle in the 2001 ACC championship blowout win over UNC.

And Duke has gone through other issues involving perceptions of the selection committee, more recently with Kyrie Irving's return in 2011.

But the perception issue here is that on Saturday this statement was attributed to Bill Self

“Hopefully we get real positive news. Hopefully he can be on the practice floor very very soon. We will not put him out there just because he feels better but because the doctors says it’s time to get back out there. Hopefully it will be real soon, if not we’ll sit him a little longer. We still don’t think it will affect (his participation in) the NCAA tournament in any way.”

http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcspor...onday/related/

Now it appears Embiid may miss the first weekend of the tournament following an examination by a non-UK doctor in California. That calls into question the credibility of what Kansas has been saying with regard to the anticipated recovery time

If Duke were to somehow get a #2 seed it would be rotten luck for the committee to over-react and drop Kansas to a #3 seed in Duke's region. For a variety of reasons I hope Kansas stays a #2 seed somewhere other than Duke's region.

[Edouble]

In other seeding news, Lunardi (I know, I know -- he's just guessing) has his brackets set for a potential Duke (#2 in East) vs Stanford (#10 in East) game in the 2nd round of the tourney. Probably too delicious for the committee to not make that happen. Remember when K had to play Snyder at Mizzu a few years ago? This would be waaay worse for K, I suspect, as he thinks of Johnny as a son.

-Jason "we can merge this into one of the other seeding threads in a bit -- but I wanted the Embiid news to get some attention from the board for a little bit because it is quite significant" Evans

Not making fun of you, but "a few years ago"... it was 13 seasons ago. I laugh, because to me, it also just seems like a few years back. Time certainly flies.

[Edouble]

My mind is going fast, but I don't recall K playing against Quinn AT Mizzu. My only recollection of K vs Snyder was in the East Regionals in 2001 and that game was in Greensboro, NC. Seems like I was there.

That was a second round game against Mizzou in Greensboro in 2001. The East Regionals were played in Philly that year. We beat a Henry Bibby coached USC team to get to the Final Four.

[hurleyfor3]

After what the committee did to Cincinnati in 2000, it's perfectly valid to be overly optimistic in discussing injuries this time of year.

They didn't screw Cincy (Cincy was screwed regardless of what the ncaa did) so much as hand unc the greatest bracketing gift ever.

Anyway, I feel for Kansas. They weren't unbeatable at all, but it always feels better to beat teams at full strength. Their fanbase must be crapping bricks right now.

[bedeviled]

Now it appears Embiid may miss the first weekend of the tournament following an examination by a non-UK doctor in California. That calls into question the credibility of what Kansas has been saying with regard to the anticipated recovery time

This is a non-issue to most of us, but, for TexHawk's sake, I'd like to point out that Kansas is traditionally referred to as 'KU.' If Embiid was going to a 'UK' (Kentucky) doctor, then Self really is up to something odd.

The Kansas physicians had apparently diagnosed the stress fracture, and Embiid was already resting - the second opinion confirmed the diagnosis. To me, there isn't any considerable difference between hoping he might be back for the conference tournament and now not hoping for that, as prognoses can become more clear over time, with additional testing/rehab, or simply due to differing expert opinions (I bet there were widely variable opinions on what Seth Curry should do). If Kansas is playing their cards, perhaps they wanted to put the more favorable timeline out into the media but backtracked a little bit when a 3rd party (the 2nd opinion) became involved. At any rate, I don't see it as a big deal...and certainly not an indication of mismanagement or conspiracy.

[tommy]

Feeling for TexHawk right now. Such a shame, not only for Embiid himself, but for KU fans who have been following their team closely, watching them grow, hoping they're building towards something big, and then just when it's about to jump, this happens. Takes all the air out of the balloon. We at Duke know the feeling all too well. Sucks for all fans of the game.

That being said, let's not cry too too much just yet for the Jayhawks. This need not be a death knell for them. After all, they have beaten a number of good teams this season -- tournament teams -- while getting modest production from Embiid. Including their victory over Duke, in which Embiid played only 20 minutes, scoring just two points and blocking just one shot.l