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Thread: Wichita State

  1. #1

    Wichita State

    There are a lot of threads getting derailed by this topic (of which I'm partially guilty of), so I think it'd be nice to have the conversation in one place so it can stop being a tangential topic elsewhere. I've made most of the points I care to make before, but in summary:

    1. Wichita State is awesome.
    2. Wichita State's mascot is a bale of wheat.
    3. Wichita State has not played as strong a schedule as the other contenders for the 1 and 2 seeds.
    4. Quality of wins are only part of the equation. I KNOW that Duke and Kansas and Florida have better wins than Wichita. But losses matter too. A lot. For example, Wichita has played 15 or more games that are as difficult or more difficult than a home game against Boston College.
    5. Tangentially: I still don't know why Florida, a team that is not #1 in RPI, kenpom, or Sagarin, is getting a free pass for similar issues and automatically assumed by many to be the overall #1 seed. All the arguments that apply for Team X > Wichita also apply for Duke/Kansas > Florida.
    6. Wichita State was expected to be really good this year. They didn't come out of nowhere.
    7. If that dude tries to tell me again that NC Central's 349th ranked schedule out of 351 Division 1 teams is as difficult as Wichita's, I respectfully ask the powers that be to make him pay some sort of tribute or animal sacrifice to this board.

    Not only does Wichita deserve a 1 seed if they win their conference tournament, but for however much the S-curve matters (which I'm not sure it does that much), there's no reason to assume that they're the fourth ranked 1 seed.
    Last edited by Wander; 03-03-2014 at 12:20 PM.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    There are a lot of threads getting derailed by this topic (of which I'm partially guilty of), so I think it'd be nice to have the conversation in one place so it can stop being a tangential topic elsewhere. I've made most of the points I care to make before, but in summary:

    1. Wichita State is awesome.
    2. Wichita State's mascot is a bale of wheat.
    3. Wichita State has not played as strong a schedule as the other contenders for the 1 and 2 seeds.
    4. Quality of wins are only part of the equation. I KNOW that Duke and Kansas and Florida have better wins than Wichita. But losses matter too. A lot. For example, Wichita has played 15 or more games that are as difficult or more difficult than a home game against Boston College.
    5. Tangentially: I still don't know why Florida, a team that is not #1 in RPI, kenpom, or Sagarin, is getting a free pass for similar issues and automatically assumed by many to be the overall #1 seed. All the arguments that apply for Team X > Wichita also apply for Duke/Kansas > Florida.
    6. Wichita State was expected to be really good this year. They didn't come out of nowhere.
    7. If that dude tries to tell me again that NC Central's 349th ranked schedule out of 351 Division 1 teams is as difficult as Wichita's, I respectfully ask the powers that be to make him pay some sort of tribute or animal sacrifice to this board.
    Wichita St is a very good team. Winning every game that you are supposed to win is an important trait. If they had played to statistical norm and dropped, say 2 MVC games, they would be a 2 or 3 seed which is about where I think they belong talent-wise. However, they haven't lost those games and I don't have a problem with them getting a 1 seed.

    I want to address the WSU vs Florida issue. Yes, the SEC is down this year and Florida's undefeated (so far) run of the SEC gauntlet is not as impressive as it normally would be. However, I think that even the down SEC is still much better than the MVC. By KPom, there are only 2 other teams in the MVC (Ind St and N Iowa) rated above 140. Every SEC team except Miss St and South Carolina are above 140 with 7 teams above 100 in the SEC. Florida's SEC slate has been quite a bit stronger than the WSU's MVC slate.

    For me the apt ACC comparison is that Florida has to play quite a few games against Clemson/Md/NC ST type teams that while not a NCAA tourney-caliber team, have a decent chance of beating a top (Duke or WSU-like) team at home while WSU is basically playing GTech, BC, VT type teams almost every game who very little chance of beating a top team at all.
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  3. #3
    One thing I've seen repeated a lot is the "I'd love for Duke to be Wichita St's 2 seed" sentiment.

    I really disagree with that, as they seem to be a terrible matchup for Duke. (I do expect to be pretty close to the lone voice of dissent here, though.)

    WSU's best player is Cleanthony Early who plays the 4 and can shoot threes, which will spread out Duke's defense. He's a senior who is aggressive and draws fouls and I can see him getting Jabari into foul trouble. WSU also has great playmaking guards in Baker and Van Fleet who should be able to take advantage of Duke's spread out defense to drive for scores and dumpoffs. I don't think we can guard WSU, and their defense is actually the slightly stronger element of their team. The Shockers are a great defensive rebounding team, even owning the defensive boards against Tennessee, who is typically the 5th best offensive rebounding team in the country but was held to 25% OffReb rate against WSU. In fact, WSU won the rebounding battle against the 3 best teams they've played: Tennessee, St. Louis, and BYU. If Duke's not hitting 3s, I don't think we can score enough in 2-pt range or grab enough of our misses against WSU's great defense and great defensive rebounding to offset the lack of threes. It isn't often that I'll agree that Duke needs to hit threes very well to win, but I think it's true against WSU.

    Furthermore, WSU should have a huge crowd advantage if we played them in a regional final since the non-partisans will root heavily for them.

    Wichita State is a nightmare matchup for Duke. If the choice is between being Kansas' 2 seed in MSG and being WSU's 2 seed in Indianapolis, bring on Kansas.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Wichita State is a nightmare matchup for Duke. If the choice is between being Kansas' 2 seed in MSG and being WSU's 2 seed in Indianapolis, bring on Kansas.
    You are missing a major point. The reason a Duke fan might want to be the #2 in Wichita's region is not necessarily because of the #1/#2 matchup, but because Wichita State seems less likely to reach the Elite Eight. I mean, you'd rather face some #4 or #5 seed instead of Kansas or Florida, right?

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    You are missing a major point. The reason a Duke fan might want to be the #2 in Wichita's region is not necessarily because of the #1/#2 matchup, but because Wichita State seems less likely to reach the Elite Eight. I mean, you'd rather face some #4 or #5 seed instead of Kansas or Florida, right?
    Well, I'd say it's BOTH. If we're a #2, I want to be in the bracket with the worst #1. That means that if we both hold serve, we'll have the easiest elite 8 game. AND it means that presumably we'll have the best shot at avoiding our #1 seed altogether.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by tbyers11 View Post
    I want to address the WSU vs Florida issue. Yes, the SEC is down this year and Florida's undefeated (so far) run of the SEC gauntlet is not as impressive as it normally would be. However, I think that even the down SEC is still much better than the MVC. By KPom, there are only 2 other teams in the MVC (Ind St and N Iowa) rated above 140. Every SEC team except Miss St and South Carolina are above 140 with 7 teams above 100 in the SEC. Florida's SEC slate has been quite a bit stronger than the WSU's MVC slate.
    I completely agree that Florida's SEC run is harder than Wichita's MVC run. I should have been more clear, but I wasn't trying to argue for Wichita over Florida. My only point is the following statement:

    "Team X has a better record than Team Y, but Y played a much harder schedule than X, so X doesn't deserve to be above Y"

    is valid for both X = Wichita/Y = Florida and X = Florida/Y = Duke or Kansas. And yet nobody seems to be questioning Florida's claim to the OVERALL #1 seed.

  7. #7

    Wichita State

    I've seen Wichita State play half a dozen times and I don't think they are one of the 10 best teams in the country.

    I would LOVE to face Wichita State in the Elite Eight to get to the Final Four.

    They deserve credit for winning 30 straight games in a decent mid-major conference (the MVC is the 11th best conference in the RPI ratings). But it's not as impressive to be as St. Joe's 27-0 regular season in 2004 in a much stronger A-10. But beating a ton of mediocre teams is not my ideal of a great team. At this moment, 22 of their 30 wins are in the 100-plus range ... three more are 94-plus two are in the 70s. Their best win is at St. Louis -- another team that has a high RPI without beating anybody.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    You are missing a major point. The reason a Duke fan might want to be the #2 in Wichita's region is not necessarily because of the #1/#2 matchup, but because Wichita State seems less likely to reach the Elite Eight. I mean, you'd rather face some #4 or #5 seed instead of Kansas or Florida, right?
    I agree with that, but I don't think I'd consider WSU to be more vulnerable to an upset than the other 1 seeds. That's just me personally though. I'm all-in with my belief in them. My belief is 3-pronged: (a) that they're a deserving 1 seed in general, (b) that they're no more likely to be upset than the other 1 seeds, and (c) that they match up with Duke at least as well as the other 1 seeds, probably better.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    I agree with that, but I don't think I'd consider WSU to be more vulnerable to an upset than the other 1 seeds.
    They may or may not be. Arguments in favor of the Shockers being more susceptible are (a) Wichita State's not used to playing high pressure games (somewhat ameliorated by last year's Final Four run, but not completely); and (b) Wichita's computer ranking is lower than the other contenders in most of the major computer systems -- in the RPI Wichita ranks worse than Arizona, Kansas, Florida, Wisconsin, and Syracuse; in the BPI Wichita ranks lower than Arizona, Florida, and Kansas; in Pomeroy, Wichita ranks lower than Arizona, Virginia, Duke, and Florida; in Sagarin, Wichita ranks worse than Arizona, Duke, Kansas, Florida, Virginia, and Wisconsin (in several of these systems, Wichita also ranks worse than other teams, like Villanova, Louisville, etc., but since those teams aren't serious contenders for a #1 seed I left them out).

    So if the computers think Wichita is worse than Arizona, Florida, and Kansas (as well as some others), I think that's decent evidence that Wichita would be more vulnerable to an upset.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    I completely agree that Florida's SEC run is harder than Wichita's MVC run. I should have been more clear, but I wasn't trying to argue for Wichita over Florida. My only point is the following statement:

    "Team X has a better record than Team Y, but Y played a much harder schedule than X, so X doesn't deserve to be above Y"

    is valid for both X = Wichita/Y = Florida and X = Florida/Y = Duke or Kansas. And yet nobody seems to be questioning Florida's claim to the OVERALL #1 seed.
    Florida is 2-1 against the top-25, 6-2 against the top-50, and 14-2 against the top-100. Their only losses are @Wisconsin (a possible #1 seed) and @UConn (a likely tourney team). They have beaten Kansas and Memphis along with Tennessee twice, Missouri, and @UK. That's a SUBSTANTIALLY different resume than Wichita State's resume.

    Has UF had the toughest conference schedule ever? Absolutely not. But they've played enough really good teams to support their case.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Florida is 2-1 against the top-25, 6-2 against the top-50, and 14-2 against the top-100.
    And why is that obviously better than the resume of Kansas or Arizona?

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    I've seen Wichita State play half a dozen times and I don't think they are one of the 10 best teams in the country.

    I would LOVE to face Wichita State in the Elite Eight to get to the Final Four.

    They deserve credit for winning 30 straight games in a decent mid-major conference (the MVC is the 11th best conference in the RPI ratings). But it's not as impressive to be as St. Joe's 27-0 regular season in 2004 in a much stronger A-10. But beating a ton of mediocre teams is not my ideal of a great team. At this moment, 22 of their 30 wins are in the 100-plus range ... three more are 94-plus two are in the 70s. Their best win is at St. Louis -- another team that has a high RPI without beating anybody.
    Pitchforks for you, my friend.

    Echo everything here, and this is my train of thought:

    -Duke is a really good team this year. Anything less than a Sweet 16 would be utterly disappointing
    -I see Duke going to the EE, even barring a tough 3 or 4 seed. If we are a top 5 team, we should play like one.
    -Florida, Arizona, and Kansas are the three teams that scare me the most. Florida has the experience and a really good coach, Arizona has the talent, the coach, and a top defense, and Kansas has the best collective talent in the country and a top coach. I don't want to face any of these teams before the Final Four
    -What Wichita St has done is impressive, but, like OF, I don't see them as a top 10 team. Would you rather face Wichita St or Florida/Kansas/Arizona? IMO, I don't really think it's a debate
    -I hope the committee puts the top 2 seed in WSU's bracket. If Kansas and Duke win out, that means one team gets the last 1 seed and the other gets WSU's 2 seed.

    Is this simplistic? Absolutely. Do I have a simplistic mind? Probably.
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  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    I hope the committee puts the top 2 seed in WSU's bracket. If Kansas and Duke win out, that means one team gets the last 1 seed and the other gets WSU's 2 seed.
    We know that as of last year, the committee doesn't seed that way. They take the top 16, split them into their respective seed lines, then geographic preferences goes to the best in each seed. This system results in it being arguably better to be the committee's fifth rated team then its fourth rated team, if geography makes a big difference for you (Duke, we know, has a pretty bad history playing out west).

    Somebody else said that if Wichita lost a game or two in conference, they would wind up a 2 or 3 seed. I disagree. If Wichita loses in its conference tournament, I think they are no higher than a 3, but most likely a 4. They don't have a high enough quality win (I, too, discount Saint Louis a bit for also not playing anybody good) to boost them up. The rest of the top ten and maybe even the top 15 have better wins.

    That said, Wichita went to the Final Four last year, so its not like they aren't used to the spotlight. They appear to have plenty of talent and coaching (what program did Marshall turn down last summer to stay there?) to compete with the big dogs. They deserve that 1 seed until they lose, I think.

  14. I've been one of the voices on this board consistently criticizing WSU's and SLU's poll rankings on this board, but I would like to say that while WSU doesn't deserve a 1-seed, I have no real issues if they were and think it would make a more interesting NCAA tournament anyway.


    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    One thing I've seen repeated a lot is the "I'd love for Duke to be Wichita St's 2 seed" sentiment.

    I really disagree with that, as they seem to be a terrible matchup for Duke. (I do expect to be pretty close to the lone voice of dissent here, though.)

    WSU's best player is Cleanthony Early who plays the 4 and can shoot threes, which will spread out Duke's defense. He's a senior who is aggressive and draws fouls and I can see him getting Jabari into foul trouble. WSU also has great playmaking guards in Baker and Van Fleet who should be able to take advantage of Duke's spread out defense to drive for scores and dumpoffs. I don't think we can guard WSU, and their defense is actually the slightly stronger element of their team. The Shockers are a great defensive rebounding team, even owning the defensive boards against Tennessee, who is typically the 5th best offensive rebounding team in the country but was held to 25% OffReb rate against WSU. In fact, WSU won the rebounding battle against the 3 best teams they've played: Tennessee, St. Louis, and BYU. If Duke's not hitting 3s, I don't think we can score enough in 2-pt range or grab enough of our misses against WSU's great defense and great defensive rebounding to offset the lack of threes. It isn't often that I'll agree that Duke needs to hit threes very well to win, but I think it's true against WSU.

    Furthermore, WSU should have a huge crowd advantage if we played them in a regional final since the non-partisans will root heavily for them.

    Wichita State is a nightmare matchup for Duke. If the choice is between being Kansas' 2 seed in MSG and being WSU's 2 seed in Indianapolis, bring on Kansas.
    I think WSU is a great match-up for Duke. WSU plays a packed defence that tempts teams to shoot the 3 while taking away the drive -- this is why they are a great defensive rebounding team, because once the shot is up there are a lot of Shocker players nearer the basket to get the rebound. It's not because of any innate rebounding talent.

    If WSU gives us the open 3, wow, it's going to be candy-land for Duke's shooters. And while the Shockers get lots of rebounds, they don't have particularly tall players on the roster (tallest is 6-9), so a 7-footer like Marshall can probably steal a few.

    They are a good defensive team but we can score. And it won't require as much for us to shoot our season 3-point average against a packed defence...heck, chances are we'll have a GOOD shooting night.

    Defensively, they have only one (maybe two) possible NBA players. That guy is Cleanthony Early. But we have not just one but TWO guys who can keep up with him defensively in Parker and Jefferson. The advantage of playing in a conference like MVC and not playing any top tier competition is that Early doesn't have to face anyone like himself. Well, he gets two guys as big and quick as he is with Duke. Early will struggle against us.

    But the real key to this team is not Early but Van Vleet. He is the engine that drives this team. He's more important to WSU than Parker is to us. He boasts an unbelievable 4 A/TO for the season. We must contain him, and that means a repeat of our defensive performance against Ennis and Syracuse; and unlike Ennis, Van Vleet won't get selected in the first round of the NBA draft. Seeing how we've done it before, I feel good in us doing it again and to a lesser athletic talent.

    The flipside is...what if we can get Van Vleet in foul trouble? This Shockers team would grind to a halt because they don't have anybody to replace him.We have the tools to cut off the head and the arm of this Shockers offence.

    Overall, I say we are just about the Shockers' nightmare match-up.

  15. Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    4. Quality of wins are only part of the equation. I KNOW that Duke and Kansas and Florida have better wins than Wichita. But losses matter too. A lot. For example, Wichita has played 15 or more games that are as difficult or more difficult than a home game against Boston College.
    I think everyone can agree that both wins and losses matter.

    But don't you think that in order to be considered the best, a necessary ingredient is to have beaten the best?

    Can a tennis player who hasn't lost but also hasn't beaten any of Federer, Nadal, Djokovic or Murray be ranked #1 in the ATP? Can you imagine the outcry in that scenario?

    Avoiding losses is important, sure, but winning games that show you belong among the best is more important. The former is hygiene, the latter is proof.

    All season long WSU has been holding its hat on the SLU win as its proof -- but this is another team with no good wins and who today looks barely top 25 worthy.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by ice-9 View Post
    But don't you think that in order to be considered the best, a necessary ingredient is to have beaten the best?
    This guy agrees:


  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by ice-9 View Post
    WSU plays a packed defence that tempts teams to shoot the 3 while taking away the drive -- this is why they are a great defensive rebounding team, because once the shot is up there are a lot of Shocker players nearer the basket to get the rebound. It's not because of any innate rebounding talent.

    If WSU gives us the open 3, wow, it's going to be candy-land for Duke's shooters. And while the Shockers get lots of rebounds, they don't have particularly tall players on the roster (tallest is 6-9), so a 7-footer like Marshall can probably steal a few.

    They are a good defensive team but we can score. And it won't require as much for us to shoot our season 3-point average against a packed defence...heck, chances are we'll have a GOOD shooting night.
    We don't disagree much here; just two different spins on the same story. I agree that WSU is like a mid-major version of UVA in that they play a great packed in defense. That, to me, means Duke must hit threes to open up other things, and I'd feel better if there were other paths to offensive success, even though Duke has been a tremendous 3-pt shooting team for most of the season.

    Quote Originally Posted by ice-9 View Post
    Defensively, they have only one (maybe two) possible NBA players. That guy is Cleanthony Early. But we have not just one but TWO guys who can keep up with him defensively in Parker and Jefferson. The advantage of playing in a conference like MVC and not playing any top tier competition is that Early doesn't have to face anyone like himself. Well, he gets two guys as big and quick as he is with Duke. Early will struggle against us.

    But the real key to this team is not Early but Van Vleet. He is the engine that drives this team. He's more important to WSU than Parker is to us. He boasts an unbelievable 4 A/TO for the season. We must contain him, and that means a repeat of our defensive performance against Ennis and Syracuse; and unlike Ennis, Van Vleet won't get selected in the first round of the NBA draft. Seeing how we've done it before, I feel good in us doing it again and to a lesser athletic talent.

    The flipside is...what if we can get Van Vleet in foul trouble? This Shockers team would grind to a halt because they don't have anybody to replace him.We have the tools to cut off the head and the arm of this Shockers offence.
    This is where we really disagree. A significant factor in Duke's defensive success against Ennis in Cameron was our big men being able to leave Syracuse's big men all alone on ball screens in order to double-team Ennis and force him to pass. Even when left all alone momentarily, Syracuse's bigs weren't able to hurt us. I think Christmas hit a 2-pt jumper for Cuse's first score of the game, and Grant rolled to the rim for a dunk late in the game (which was also a miscommunication by Duke), but in between they didn't do enough. Cleanthony Early will hurt us if we use that strategy. First of all, he's able to pop out and hit a three after setting a pick, so we can't play him the same way. A stretch 4 changes everything. I also think, ball screens aside, he can usually score 1-on-1 against Jabari or Amile.

    Also, I like Van Fleet a lot but I think Ron Baker is an even better player who can also drive, pass, and score. I think Baker's better than any Duke guard and will be an NBA player. So WSU has two efficient playmakers at guard and that's kinda scary to me in a potential matchup with them.

    Quote Originally Posted by ice-9 View Post
    Overall, I say we are just about the Shockers' nightmare match-up.
    Hopefully what will happen is WSU gets bounced early in the tourney. I'll be happy, and everyone who thinks they're overrated will be happy.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    One thing I've seen repeated a lot is the "I'd love for Duke to be Wichita St's 2 seed" sentiment.

    I really disagree with that, as they seem to be a terrible matchup for Duke.
    The reason I want this bracket isn't because of the matchup between WSU and Duke, but it's because I know WSU won't make it far enough to play #2 Duke. If we are in that bracket and advance , we won 't have to play the #1 to get to the FF.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by ice-9 View Post
    But don't you think that in order to be considered the best, a necessary ingredient is to have beaten the best?

    Can a tennis player who hasn't lost but also hasn't beaten any of Federer, Nadal, Djokovic or Murray be ranked #1 in the ATP? Can you imagine the outcry in that scenario?
    I don't agree with your premise, and to use an example close to home, I'll note that this is the exact line of reasoning that Carolina fans level against Duke's 2010 team. The consensus teams most of the late season were Kansas, Kentucky, and Syracuse. We didn't have to play any of them. Obviously, Duke 2010's schedule is miles ahead of Wichita's - don't think I'm pretending otherwise - but by your logic, we can't consider them to be the best.

    Just as importantly, I'm not claiming Wichita is the best team (FWIW, I think Arizona is pretty clearly the overall #1 seed right now).

  20. #20
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    I don't really have an opinion about Wichita State, although all the snideness directed at them certainly makes me pull for them.

    What's really weird is is seeing everyone refer to SLU as "Saint Louis." No one at that school calls it such. It's called SLU ([slu] in the international phonetic alphabet, or "sloo" rendered as fallible English spelling). It's a Jesuit school so its social network is a little, um, closed. I don't know any of its graduates who call the place "Saint Louis." Not even one.

    This is similar to calling NYU "New York" or Boston University or Boston College "Boston." It's just bizarre.

    SLU won 19 in a row before soiling themselves this past week. They're in a harder conference than Wichita State is. What to make of that, hell if I know.
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