At this point, Syracuse, Duke, and Virgina are all locks. UNC and Pitt would also have to go into total freefall to not make it. Those 5 are solid.
But getting a 6th or 7th team in could be a real challenge.
Clemson seems to be the most likely 6th team, but they keep on making it hard on themselves. The Tigers just lost in 2 OTs at Notre Dame. Far be it for a Duke fan to criticize a team for losing at ND, but that was one of those winnable games that Clemson really needed to put into the W column. Clemson's non-conference schedule sucked (it always does) and they have non-conf losses to a good UMass team, a so-so Arkansas team, and a bad Auburn team. Their best non-conf win is pretty unimpressive, either South Carolina or Davidson (neither are in the RPI top 100). So, they need to make their case with conference wins.
Right now, the Tigers are just 6-5 in the ACC. That win over Duke is their primary calling card at the moment. The good news is that 5 of their final 7 conference games are at home including resume building games with Virginia and Pitt as well as Maryland, NCSU, and Miami. The road games are very winnable, at Ga Tech and at Wake. If Clemson can win 5 of the 7 games and get to 20-9 overall and 11-7 in the ACC, I think they probably make the NCAAs. They might need a first round ACC Tourney win to ensure it though.
I would imagine that the other team dreaming of making the dance from the ACC is NC State. Their non-conference resume is better than Clemson's with a win over Tennessee (top 50 in RPI... barely) and Northwestern (top 100 in RPI... barely). They have an ugly non-conference loss to NC Central but their other non-conference losses are to a very good Cincy club and Mizzu.
Like Clemson, NC State is 6-5 in the ACC and I think 11-5 needs to be their goal. But getting there is a lot harder than it will be for Clemson. State plays 4 of their final 7 on the road including trips to Syracuse and Pitt. Tough to see them winning either of those. The Pack also go to Clemson and Va Tech. Their home games are UNC, Miami and BC. I just don't see State getting the wins they need.
I know folks still think FSU can make it, but their ACC record is 5-7 right now. They still have to play Pitt on the road and both UNC and Syracuse at home. I guess, if you think they are going to win 2 of those games and win all their other games then you can project the Noles to 10-8 in the conference with nice non-conference wins over VCU and UMass, but expecting a team that has lost 5 of their past 6 to win 5 of their next 6 (3 coming against solid tourney teams) seems like a longshot.
I don't see Maryland (6-6 in the ACC with tough games left against Syr, Virginia, and at Duke, at Clemson) getting the 10 or 11 ACC wins they need to be in the tourney conversation. The rest of the conference already have too many losses to be considered.
It is a down year for the ACC, no question about it. The addition of Syracuse and Pitt saves us from what could have been an historically bad season. Blech!
-Jason "that said, the top 4 or 5 in the ACC are better than the top 4-5 in any other league... perhaps by a lot" Evans