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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    San Francisco

    ACC Teams NCAA Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by Faison1 View Post
    Soooooo....out of 15 teams in the conference, I'm seeing maybe 5 get in the Tourney this year. Sweet.

    I'm no genious with math, but depending on who you talk with, that's almost worse than 4 out of 12.
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I'd say that Duke, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, UNC, Virginia, and Florida State will make it. From there, I wouldn't be surprised to see at least 1 or 2 more make it, because someone is going to have to win in these in-conference games. Of that group, I could see Wake, Notre Dame, and Georgia Tech being in the discussion based on their starts, as each have wins over BCS schools and have played close against a high-quality opponent as well.

    If we get less than 7 teams in the tourney, I'd be fairly surprised. At the back end I'm not sure who it will be. But I'd be shocked if it was only 5 of our 15 schools that make the tourney.
    Are you still in a state of shock, or have you come around to "grim acceptance"?

    Just kidding, of course. As the season has progressed, I have often thought about this thread conversation.

    Maybe we get 6, but I'm still thinking 5. FSU is done. I don't hold a lot of faith in NCSU, and who knows about Clemson. UNC is looking a lot better, though.

    Frankly, if it weren't for Syracuse and Pitt, the ACC would be looking AWFUL right now.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    At this point, Syracuse, Duke, and Virgina are all locks. UNC and Pitt would also have to go into total freefall to not make it. Those 5 are solid.

    But getting a 6th or 7th team in could be a real challenge.

    Clemson seems to be the most likely 6th team, but they keep on making it hard on themselves. The Tigers just lost in 2 OTs at Notre Dame. Far be it for a Duke fan to criticize a team for losing at ND, but that was one of those winnable games that Clemson really needed to put into the W column. Clemson's non-conference schedule sucked (it always does) and they have non-conf losses to a good UMass team, a so-so Arkansas team, and a bad Auburn team. Their best non-conf win is pretty unimpressive, either South Carolina or Davidson (neither are in the RPI top 100). So, they need to make their case with conference wins.

    Right now, the Tigers are just 6-5 in the ACC. That win over Duke is their primary calling card at the moment. The good news is that 5 of their final 7 conference games are at home including resume building games with Virginia and Pitt as well as Maryland, NCSU, and Miami. The road games are very winnable, at Ga Tech and at Wake. If Clemson can win 5 of the 7 games and get to 20-9 overall and 11-7 in the ACC, I think they probably make the NCAAs. They might need a first round ACC Tourney win to ensure it though.

    I would imagine that the other team dreaming of making the dance from the ACC is NC State. Their non-conference resume is better than Clemson's with a win over Tennessee (top 50 in RPI... barely) and Northwestern (top 100 in RPI... barely). They have an ugly non-conference loss to NC Central but their other non-conference losses are to a very good Cincy club and Mizzu.

    Like Clemson, NC State is 6-5 in the ACC and I think 11-5 needs to be their goal. But getting there is a lot harder than it will be for Clemson. State plays 4 of their final 7 on the road including trips to Syracuse and Pitt. Tough to see them winning either of those. The Pack also go to Clemson and Va Tech. Their home games are UNC, Miami and BC. I just don't see State getting the wins they need.

    I know folks still think FSU can make it, but their ACC record is 5-7 right now. They still have to play Pitt on the road and both UNC and Syracuse at home. I guess, if you think they are going to win 2 of those games and win all their other games then you can project the Noles to 10-8 in the conference with nice non-conference wins over VCU and UMass, but expecting a team that has lost 5 of their past 6 to win 5 of their next 6 (3 coming against solid tourney teams) seems like a longshot.

    I don't see Maryland (6-6 in the ACC with tough games left against Syr, Virginia, and at Duke, at Clemson) getting the 10 or 11 ACC wins they need to be in the tourney conversation. The rest of the conference already have too many losses to be considered.

    It is a down year for the ACC, no question about it. The addition of Syracuse and Pitt saves us from what could have been an historically bad season. Blech!

    -Jason "that said, the top 4 or 5 in the ACC are better than the top 4-5 in any other league... perhaps by a lot" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  3. #3

    the acc

    I think we need to add UNC to the four solid NCAA picks (Syracuse, Duke, Virginia and Pitt ... in that order at the moment). Yeah, they could play their way out, but it would take a total collapse.

    That's five solid picks.

    After that, I agree that our teams are in trouble.

    Clemson is below the bubble at the moment. Losing four of six has hurt -- three of the four losses were to NCAA-bound teams, but the loss at Notre Dame really hurt. I won't say they are out, but they need to finish very strong to get in the field. They get Virginia and Pitt at home ... win those two and then we can talk.

    FSU has ALMOST played their way out. Two weeks ago, they looked to be in good shape, but not they've lost five of six and seem to be in free fall. I won't say their dead, but they need A LOT to get back on the bubble. They have home games with UNC and Syracuse, plus a road game with Pitt. Win two of three of those and take care of business against the three also-rans left on their schedule and they would be back in the conversation.

    N.C. State has the record and the RPI to make it -- if they finish strong. They have four road games left and three of them are tough -- at Syracuse, at Pitt and at Clemson. They also get UNC at home. If they can split those four games and beat everybody else, they will be in the mix.

    That's it ... I think it's possible the ACC gets six teams in ... maybe, if everything breaks right, seven ... but five is also possible. I honestly don't think it goes below five.

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